The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies.
The Eu-SPRI annual conference titled “Governing technology, research, and innovation for better worlds”, which took place from 5-7 June 2024, aimed to explore and debate what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies (Science, Technology, Innovation) and how these worlds are envisioned and designed.
The track “Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies”, provided a chance to integrate recent foresight experiences within the framework of a redefined STI policy context and to be inspired by exciting contributions from foresight practitioners, such as comprehensive institutional foresight programmes, international case studies, and local foresight initiatives.
Foresight has attracted growing attention in recent years to inform public policies on emerging and potentially disruptive developments. This is seen in particular in STI policy, but increasingly also in other policy areas, such as industry or consumer policy. This is not surprising in uncertain times and illustrates the benefits of foresight as a tool to inform highly ambitious political agendas.
In the STI policy context, these agendas are geared towards addressing societal challenges through transformative and mission-oriented STI policies, but they can also be observed in other policy areas with the aim of pursuing broader transformative targets – from Twin Transitions and the Green Deal to New Industrial Policy and Smart Specialisation.
Highly ambitious political agendas pose difficult challenges in terms of both policy coordination and the alignment of policy strategies with those of other key actors and stakeholders. They also call for more agility of public sector organisations in responding to and adjusting policy mixes to new insights into emerging developments. The anticipatory capacity of actors and organisations i.e., the skills in and know-how on foresight approaches, is crucial for effective implementation of foresight activities and efficient uptake of foresight results, thus calling for an effective foresight community of practice.
In particular, the conference track titled "Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies" was particularly insightful, as it brought together recent foresight experiences within these redefined policy contexts . In the two consecutive sessions of the track, exciting contributions from foresight practitioners were presented, ranging from comprehensive foresight programmes of the European Commission, to international case studies and AI-supported approaches, to local foresight initiatives.
The presentations “How can Foresight support the European Commission to achieve the triple transition?” by Dana Wasserbacher and “Foresight processes for the European Commission – Experiences with new process models, methods, and Foresight on Demand” by Kerstin Cuhls both focused on the foresight framework Foresight on Demand. The speakers used selected examples to analyze how foresight can support the European Commission in achieving the triple transition policy goal, highlighting new process models and methods currently in use.
In “Envisioning Preferred Futures: Findings from NISTEP's 12th Science and Technology Foresight” by Asako Okamura and “Future Visions for Desirable and Sustainable Plastic Waste Management in Khulna, Bangladesh”, by Jonathan Pillen, the speakers delved into international foresight initiatives from Japan and Bangladesh, contrasting the different contexts of embedding foresight into policy making. The Japanese example presented an innovative approach for exploring individual and collective visions to understand how people imagine desirable futures in the context of the 12th Science and Technology Foresight Survey of the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP). This resulted in a rich tapestry of societal perspectives for the future and embraced potential contradictions or conflicts within the visions. The example from Bangladesh outlined a qualitative modelling approach using the constellation analysis (CA) method. This method enables interactive, cross-disciplinary collaboration to develop visions for transforming Khulna's urban plastic waste management system, offering a support tool for decision-makers in Bangladesh's largest city.
The presentation “From fuzzy futures to supported scenarios: exploring a new methodological approach to develop plausible and desirable scenarios for sustainable agricultural futures” (Presenter: Ellen Bulten) and the presentation “AI-Supported Analysis of Innovation Systems: The Case of the Electromobility Transition” (Presenter: Daniel Weiss). In their presentations, Ellen Bulten and Daniel Weiss highlighted the difference between participatory scenario development and AI-based scenario development. Whereas the participatory approach focussed on plausible and desirable scenarios for sustainable agricultural futures and aimed at actively involving stakeholders to achieve transformative change, the AI-based approach proposed fostering electromobility transition through the quantitative and dynamic simulation of various scenarios and associated strategic options in an agile and timely manner.
In “Navigating Transformation: Strategic Foresight in Innovation Policy-making for Addressing Place-Based Societal Challenges” by Cristian Matti, an inspiring analysis of innovation-led strategic foresight in two EU regions (Helsinki-Uusimaa, Basque Country) and one UK region (Scotland) showed the potential of visioning to navigate regional change by tackling place-based societal challenges through realising inclusiveness of policymaking processes and thereby enabling more responsive and contextualized innovation policies.
Finally, drawing on a recent example of a foresight project supporting the preparation of the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe, the presentation “Strategic approaches to future-oriented R&I policy for addressing disruptive developments” by Matthias Weber, gave insights into different strategic paths and policy approaches for dealing with and preparing for potentially disruptive developments, such as climate change, geopolitical developments, and artificial general intelligence (AGI). The analysis showed the possibilities but also the limitations of R&I policy in view of possible disruptions in technology, society and globally. The example is also instructive to show how foresight can be used to inform policy strategies.
For some, the discussion of the contributions offered the opportunity to validate their scenario approaches and gain tips and tricks for implementation, while others exchanged views on the hurdles and challenges involved in implementing foresight processes. Key findings of the contributions and discussions were, for example, the relevance of trust and the development of trusting relationships with those involved in a foresight process, but also the role of foresight as a monitoring and evaluation tool for place-based policies.