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Earth4All
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Earth4All started as a vibrant collective of leading economic thinkers, scientists, policy leaders, and advocates, convened by The Club of Rome, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Stockholm Resilience Centre and the Norwegian Business School.
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Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate?
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/11062b_fcdb39ed13f244178b7bb9e15adfd715~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_37,h_15,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/11062b_fcdb39ed13f244178b7bb9e15adfd715~mv2.jpg)
Blog
Albert Norström
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Mar 30, 2022
Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten.
Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate?
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/11062b_fcdb39ed13f244178b7bb9e15adfd715~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_37,h_15,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/11062b_fcdb39ed13f244178b7bb9e15adfd715~mv2.jpg)
Blog
Albert Norström
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Developing Context Scenarios for Future EU R&I policies
What types of EU R&I policies would be effective in the years to come? How shall
these policies help us explore and respond to the uncertainties of the future?
Finding answers to these questions requires first of all imagining the context, in
which future EU R&I policies might be situated. For doing this, we need to explore
developments both at global level and within the European Union.
![Dr. Attila Havas](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/ff6ca7_c36eb148a7f441ce8b26d8f7b7b3d0b7%7Emv2.jpeg)
Dr. Attila Havas
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Exploring future dimensions and elements of contextual developments relevant for EU R&I policies
The online workshop on October 18–19, 2021, was the first in a series of interactive encounters involving foresight experts and practitioners from both EU services and the Member States. It focussed on exploring future dimensions and elements of contextual developments that may have important repercussions for EU R&I policies in general, and the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe in particular. An overarching goal of the workshop, as well as the series of interactive meetings, was to provide initial impetus for a broad and in-depth discussion on the big picture and framework conditions for EU R&I policymaking.
![Dana Wasserbacher](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/1bf8c6_22fdcee06ae9408d95f8b19e76418089%7Emv2.png)
Dana Wasserbacher
Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg
Luxembourg Strategy, the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks:1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbeing since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transitions since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finances since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html
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Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study
Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report
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Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon
The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021.
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Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe
This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning.
The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe.
The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project.
The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities:
As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis.
An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on the online platform www.futures4europe.eu.
An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions.
On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics:
> Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering
> Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative
> The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership
> Global Commons
> Transhumanist Revolutions
Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments:
> Social Confrontations
> Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities
> The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities
> The Future of Health
A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days.
Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy.
This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. Partner organizations:
Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT)
Institutul de Prospectiva (IP)
Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISINNOVA)
Technopolis Group
4strat
Insight Foresight Institute (IFI)
Arctik
Fraunhofer ISI
About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications.
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