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COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > FORPOL > FORPOL From October 2022 to March 2023, we ran a forecasting tournament with a total of 54 questions. Almost all of our forecasting questions were developed in cooperation with 16 different public institutions and ministerial departments. Each institution or department defined its most useful forecasting topics, participated in a workshop to define specific questions with us, and was later provided with the results. This was intended as a proof of concept of one possible approach to incorporating forecasting in public decision-making. Once defined, our forecasting questions were then posted on a private Metaculus sub-domain (in Czech), where an average of 72 forecasters had the opportunity to address them as they would any other question on Metaculus (median of 18 predictions per user). Throughout the tournament, we produced 16 reports detailing the rationales and forecasts, to be used by the cooperating institutions. A handful of our partners have already reported acting on the information/judgment presented in our reports. This has concerned, for example, the national foreclosure issue (some 6% of the total population have debts in arrears) where the debt relief process is being redesigned midst strong lobbying and insufficient personal capacities; or the probabilities of outlier scenarios for European macroeconomic development, which was requested by the Slovak Ministry of Finance to help calibrate their existing judgements. It also seems useful to explore various approaches to grow the number of policymakers with personal experience & skills in forecasting. In our case, we found curiosity and willingness to try forecasting even in unexpected institutional locations (i.e. the Czech R&I funding body). This makes us more confident that the “external forecasts” approach (as compared to building internal prediction tournaments or focusing on advancing forecasting skills of public servants) is worth investigating further precisely because it allows us to detect and draw on this interest irrespective of institutional and seniority distinctions and resource constraints. While we hope that any readers with an interest in forecasting may find our experience useful, we expect that both this and any future projects of ours make it easier for other teams to work towards similar goals. To that effect, the write-up also contains an Annex of “Methodological Guidelines,” where we outline in more explicit terms the questions and decisions that we found were important to tackle when running the project, and what they may entail. 21232 0 3 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://www.ceskepriority.cz/forpol/eng OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Forecasting Data MEET THE EXPERTS Dominik Hajduk View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts NBA2King: This requires understanding market trends Blog September 4, 2024 1 0 0 MMOexp: Diablo 4 extends beyond its launch Blog September 4, 2024 2 0 0 MMOexp: FC 25 demands a decent processor Blog September 4, 2024 1 0 0 Slowly getting serious about solar geoengineering Blog February 21, 2023 29 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > i-Portunus Houses – Kick-Start a Local Mobility Host Network for Artists & Cultural Professionals in AllCreative Europe Countries > i-Portunus Houses – Kick-Start a Local Mobility Host Network for Artists & Cultural Professionals in AllCreative Europe Countries The i-Portunus Houses project, implemented on behalf of the European Commission by a consortium of three partners – the European Cultural Foundation (coordinator), MitOst, and Kultura Nova Foundation – was dedicated to testing and analysing diverse transnational mobility schemes for the cultural sector. Apart from granting support for local hosts from all Creative Europe countries for the mobility of artists and cultural professionals, the project also included research on mobility in culture and the design of policy recommendations. In the research, the mobility of artists and cultural professionals is understood as the temporary, cross-border travel of artists and cultural professionals with the purpose of creating, connecting, exploring and learning. The research was carried out by experts from different disciplines with Dea Vidović being the research leader. As a result of the aforementioned research, in 2022 Kultura Nova Foundation published a 4-volume publication. Each volume represents one of the research sections: (1) conceptual framework of mobility in culture; (2) the study on mobility in culture from the perspectives of artists, cultural professionals, hosts and funders; (3) an evaluation of i-Portunus Houses mobility grant scheme and (4) scenario for the future of mobility in culture. The research covers a wide range of topics related to mobility in culture, such as its participatory and networking dimension, its digital dimension and virtual mobility, as well as its green dimension. The culmination of the research, alongside extensive recommendations and action points for sustainable mobility, is Scenario for the Future which introduces a new concept of "slow mobility". 25164 0 2 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://kulturanova.hr/english/ Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://kulturanova.hr/eng/resources/kultura-nova-edition/i-portunus-houses-publicatio OUTPUTS IPH_V1_Conceptual framework of mobility in culture.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren IPH_V2_Study on mobility in culture.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren IPH_V3_Evaluation of the i-Portunus Houses Grant Scheme.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren IPH_V4_Scenario for the future of mobility in culture.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren Mobility in Culture Art Science for Policy Scenarios MEET THE EXPERTS Marta Jalšovec View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects i-Portunus Houses – Kick-Start a Local Mobility Host Network for Artists & Cultural Professionals in AllCreative Europe Countries The i-Portunus Houses project, implemented on behalf of the European Commission by a consortium of three partners – the European Cultural Foundation (coordinator), MitOst, and Kultura Nova Foundation – was dedicated to testing and analysing diverse transnational mobility schemes for the cultural sector. Apart from granting support for local hosts from all Creative Europe countries for the mobility of artists and cultural professionals, the project also included research on mobility in culture and the design of policy recommendations. In the research, the mobility of artists and cultural professionals is understood as the temporary, cross-border travel of artists and cultural professionals with the purpose of creating, connecting, exploring and learning. The research was carried out by experts from different disciplines with Dea Vidović being the research leader. As a result of the aforementioned research, in 2022 Kultura Nova Foundation published a 4-volume publication. Each volume represents one of the research sections: (1) conceptual framework of mobility in culture; (2) the study on mobility in culture from the perspectives of artists, cultural professionals, hosts and funders; (3) an evaluation of i-Portunus Houses mobility grant scheme and (4) scenario for the future of mobility in culture. The research covers a wide range of topics related to mobility in culture, such as its participatory and networking dimension, its digital dimension and virtual mobility, as well as its green dimension. The culmination of the research, alongside extensive recommendations and action points for sustainable mobility, is Scenario for the Future which introduces a new concept of "slow mobility". 25164 2 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts NBA2King: This requires understanding market trends Blog September 4, 2024 1 0 0 MMOexp: Diablo 4 extends beyond its launch Blog September 4, 2024 2 0 0 MMOexp: FC 25 demands a decent processor Blog September 4, 2024 1 0 0 Slowly getting serious about solar geoengineering Blog February 21, 2023 29 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Discussing future hydrogen geographies in Europe: a conversation that is overdue / Discussing future hydrogen geographies in Europe: a conversation that is overdue Rainer Quitzow Oct 28, 2022 The transition to renewable energy in Europe has evolved dynamically since the turn of the century. The share of renewable energy in the European Union more than doubled between 2004 and 2022. Nevertheless, renewable energy represents only 22 percent of overall energy consumption and 37 percent of electricity generation in the EU. In other words, Europe still has a long way to go, even when it comes to the relatively easy task of converting its electricity production to renewables. In the meantime, Europe’s goal to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, as enshrined in the European Climate Law , has shifted attention to more challenging tasks: the elimination of greenhouse gas emissions from so-called hard-to-abate sectors, such as energy-intensive industries and long-distance transport. These sectors have in common that the direct use of renewable electricity does not offer a comparatively easy pathway for the elimination of greenhouse gases in these sectors. Instead, climate-neutral hydrogen - as feedstock for the production of basic chemicals and synthetic fuels or as a reduction agent in low-carbon steel making, to name a few applications - offers a promising pathway for many of these hard-to-abate sectors. This has raised the important question of where this hydrogen will come from in the future. The EU Hydrogen Strategy and the REPower plan envision the rapid ramp-up of renewable electricity-based hydrogen, the only climate neutral avenue for producing hydrogen. It has targeted the development of 10 million tons of renewable hydrogen in the EU and an equivalent amount of hydrogen to be imported from partner countries by 2030. These ambitious targets translate into additional renewable electricity generation of approximately 500 TWh, both in the EU and in partner countries. This is also roughly the amount needed to meet the EU’s pre-existing 2030 targets for renewable energy. Together, this means the EU would have to approximately double its renewable energy generation from 1000 TWh to around 2000 TWh per year by 2030. (A further increase of the EU’s renewable energy target has recently been proposed by the EU parliament.) Meeting these targets will have major implications for the future energy geography in Europe. While analysts have pointed to the economic and technical challenges of these goals, the spatial dimension of these developments is not explicitly addressed in the EU strategy and rarely features in policy discussions. The main responsibility for reaching these goals sits with the member states. However, the most ambitious strategies do not necessarily correspond to the geographies with the greatest potential to produce a surplus of renewable energy. For instance, Germany has one of the most ambitious hydrogen strategies, targeting 5 GW of electrolyzer capacity by 2030. However, among EU member states it has some of the lowest renewable energy potential relative to its existing electricity consumption (see figure 1 below). Spain is among the member states with one of the largest potential renewable energy surplus, and it has an estimated onshore wind power potential that is more than six times that of Germany. However, it is only targeting 4 GW of electrolyzer capacity by 2030. Greece, with onshore wind power potential that surpasses Germany’s by more than 70 percent, is targeting electrolyzer capacity of 750 MW by 2030. Similarly, Romania has about 50 percent more potential for wind power production than Germany but has yet to launch a national hydrogen strateg (for wind power potentials see JRC (2018) report on Wind energy potentials for EU and neighboring countries , especially page 38). Solar potential relative to its electricity consumption also vastly surpasses relative potential in Germany (see figure 2 below). Figure 1: Potential for wind power production in EU member states relative to 2016 power production (Source: IASS Potsdam, based on JRC, 2018 ) Figure 2: Solar energy potential in the European Union, by region (Source: JRC Energy and Industry Geography Lab , ENSPRESO dataset ) This is partly offset by significant offshore potential in the North Sea, which will play an important role not only in meeting German hydrogen targets but also those of Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands. These four countries have jointly declared their intention to build 20 GW of electrolyzer capacity by 2030, underpinned by 65 GW of offshore wind capacity . Beyond this targeted effort to exploit the potential of the North Sea, hydrogen ambitions in Europe do not correspond primarily to future renewable energy potential but governments’ financial capacity to invest in climate-friendly innovation and industrial development. Apart from the renewable-rich Nordics, Germany and Italy have the most ambitious targets for renewable-based electrolyzer capacity, despite comparatively low levels of renewable energy potential relative to their power demand. France has also formulated ambitious hydrogen targets. However, it represents a special case, given the high share of nuclear energy in its energy mix. It targets 6,5 GW of electricity-based hydrogen, the highest among member states, powered by either renewable or nuclear energy. The German strategy also places a strong emphasis on developing supply chains for the import of hydrogen to meet its future hydrogen demand. While these efforts address Germany’s expected gap in meeting its hydrogen demand, unlocking intra-European hydrogen trade is not the main priority. It also not explicitly tackled in the EU hydrogen strategy. Although the EU strategy acknowledges the need for imports from non-EU countries, the strategy does not propose any approach for aligning renewable potential among the member states with their hydrogen ambitions, leaving this to the member states. Neither Germany nor the EU engage actively with the question of future geographies of hydrogen demand. Rather, the implicit assumption is that existing demand centers, mainly located in Northern European countries, will largely remain in place, with hydrogen flows developing to satisfy this demand. To date, only Spain has formulated a vision that diverges from this conception, targeting hydrogen development both for export to Northern European demand centers and for the development of new, climate-neutral industrial supply chains in Spain. It is hoping to leverage its renewable energy potential to attract investment. Such a development has clear analogies in history. The availability of energy resources was instrumental in shaping Europe’s existing industrial geographies, located near centers of coal extraction or along waterways enabling their transportation. While current infrastructure and know-how located in existing industrial regions will no doubt also play an important role, renewable resources are likely to emerge as an important additional factor. To date European policy is largely blind to Europe’s renewable energy geography, presumably relegating this to the market forces driving investment decisions. However, in contrast to past energy transitions, current developments are not merely accompanied by governments. Rather policy is the central driver of these changes. Against this background, an engagement with these geographic dimensions and how they might influence the future of energy and industry in Europe could offer important new insights for European policy makers. Spelling out differing scenarios for Europe’s future energy geography and their implications for aspects such as energy security, industrial competitiveness as well as the environmental and social sustainability of hydrogen development could yield important insights for better positioning Europe and its Green Deal internationally. As Europe’s current energy crisis has revealed energy geographies - and how they are shaped by infrastructure decisions - matter. 22487 0 0 Hydrogen Renewables EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1582 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 505 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Is Hydrogen That Good for the Climate? / Is Hydrogen That Good for the Climate? Corina Murafa Dec 7, 2022 The answer is probably, a classic: "it depends". Hydrogen is the smallest and lightest molecule in the world. It is about eight times lighter than methane. There's a lot of methane leakage around the world. And by "a lot", I really mean a lot. Satellite imagery by the European Space Agency collected data that proves there is significantly more leakage in the atmosphere than official estimates. And methane has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere (Source: Environmental Defense Fund - EDF). Some of this methane leakage is due to sheer industry negligence (oil and gas companies have been proven to do routine gas flaring), but also to bad casings, old pipes, and all sorts of infrastructure mishaps that are bound to happen in any industry. Now imagine how much easier is for hydrogen - a much lighter molecule than methane - to escape and leak, particularly when we blend it with natural gas in existing pipelines, as is the case in the plans of many countries in Europe - including Romania, my home country. What's the scientific evidence to date of the potential environmental consequences of methane leakage? EDF lab studies have shown that hydrogen leakage is, in the best case, around 1% but could go up to as much as 10%. And a 10% leak could lead to 0.1°C or 0.4°C increases, the scientists claim. And this is because hydrogen has an indirect global warming effect by extending the lifetime of other GHGs (Fan et al., 2022). UK-based scientific evidence brings about even more worrisome figures: hydrogen may have a 100-year global warming potential of about 11 times greater than carbon dioxide (Warwick et al., 2022). Compared to the warming it is trying to abate by displacing fossil fuels, it turns out that in a high leakage scenario, "hydrogen emissions could yield nearly twice as much warming in the first five years after replacing its fossil fuel counterparts." On the other hand, if leaks are minimal, the climate benefits are consistent - an 80% decrease in warming compared to fossil fuels over the same period of time. The danger is real, it seems, even in the case of green hydrogen, let alone in the case of blue hydrogen, where the combo between methane leaks and hydrogen leaks could be a truly deadly cocktail for the planet. Leakage is assumed to be lowest in industrial on-site usage and highest in the production process, followed by transportation and delivery, while not enough data is available for the end-use leakage. Specialists believe that measures such as designing new hydrogen infrastructure with a focus on leakage prevention and penalising leakage where it does occur, alongside focusing on incentivizing hydrogen in so-called "hubs" (industrial sites where it is both produced and consumed), to the detriment of decentralized usage (e.g., in heating and transportation), can still keep hydrogen a climate ally rather than a climate foe (Koch Blank et al., 2022). Research on these topics is still in its infancy, with most of the peer-reviewed reports released in 2022. It is clear that intense further research is needed on leakage risks, mitigation strategies, and warming effects. At the same time, however, as the "hydrogen rush" is already moving ahead at full speed in the EU, it's probably worth introducing strong safeguards from the very beginning, in parallel to the advance of sciences: prioritise green over any other colour of hydrogen prioritise hydrogen in sectors where it can be easily produced and consumed onsite (and which are hard to decarbonize to start with, like the fertilizer industry or steel production) and deploy hydrogen at scale in other sectors (e.g.: transportation, heating) later. This probably makes sense from a basic business planning perspective, too. create new infrastructure for hydrogen, and don't retrofit old pipes that leak. put in place the highest level industry standards for leakage prevention unlike methane, where many jurisdictions are still not taxing leakage with hydrogen; let's not repeat the mistakes of the past, and let's design a leakage penalty system from the very beginning. References: Ilissa B. Ocko and Steven P. Hamburg, Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), 2022, “Climate consequences of hydrogen emissions”, in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9349–9368, 2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9349-2022 Fan, Z., et al, 2022, “Hydrogen Leakage: A Potential Risk for the Hydrogen Economy”, Columbia, SIPA, Center on Global Energy Policy, available at https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/pictures/Hydrogen%20Leakage%20Regulations,%20designed,%207.21.22.pdf Koch Blank T. et al., 2022, “Hydrogen Reality Check #1 : Hydrogen Is Not a Significant Warming Risk”, available at https://rmi.org/hydrogen-reality-check-1-hydrogen-is-not-a-significant-warming-risk/ 19758 0 1 Hydrogen EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1582 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 505 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Projects Browse our project database and find out more about foresight projects in and outside Europe. Connect with community members working on similar issues as yourself and learn about latest outputs from projects in the foresight community. Memoiren Sort by: What's the best flavor?

THEMES / Outputs Use this area to upload files you wish to share with other site visitors. Site Visitors can view and download. Only members can upload and share files. When uploading files, please make sure you own the rights to share the documents. Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe ​ Showcasing Perspectives A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe.pdf Download Future risks ​ Risks on the Horizon_Insights from Horizon Scanning.pdf Download Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg ​ ECO2050 Vision_The Future of the Luxembourg Economy by 2050 in 10 Building Blocks 2023.pdf Download ECO2050 Vision_The Future of the Luxembourg Economy by 2050_Full Report 2023.pdf Download Vision ECO2050 L'avenir de l'économie du Luxembourg en 2050_Brochure en 10 Blocs 2023.pdf Download Future Resources ​ Future Resources Ecological Imperatives powered by Newness.pdf Download Future Days: Actionable futures festival ​ Future Days - Lisboa e o Futuro 2024.pdf Download Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study ​ Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission_A Technology Foresight study.pdf Download FUTURINNOV ​ (DIS)ENTANGLING THE FUTURE Horizon-scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies.pdf Download Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1.pdf Download Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans ​ Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon ​ Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Eye of Europe Jun 5, 2024 Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Sound of Contagion – An Artistic Research Project Exploring A.I. as a Creative Tool for Transmedial Storytelling ​ Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Reimagining the Food System: scanning the horizon for emerging social innovations ​ Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... MEGATRENDS 2050. THE CHANGING WORLD: impacts in Portugal ​ Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Strategic Foresight for Sustainability (SF4S) May 24, 2024 Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Horizon Scanning for Responsible Research and Innovation May 24, 2024 Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... MOVING (Mountain Valorization through Interconnectedness and Green Growth) May 15, 2024 Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe ​ Foresight on Demand - Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe.pdf Download 4Growth project - Understanding the Market to Forecast Future Growth ​ Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Reference Foresight Scenarios: Scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040 ​ Reference Foresight Scenarios.pdf Download Stress-testing of policy options using foresight scenarios.pdf Download ANTICIPINNOV: Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation ​ Everybody is looking into the future! A literature review of reports on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation.pdf Download Scanning deep tech horizons_Participatory Collection and Assessment of Signals and Trends.pdf Download Technology foresight for public funding of innovation.pdf Download Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries ​ Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries.pdf Download Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation ​ Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Eye of Europe - The Research and Innovation Foresight Community ​ Showcasing Perspectives A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe.pdf Download Foresight for R&I policy_Emerging practices_Mutual Learning Event.pdf Download Eye of Europe Deliverable 3.1 Mapping the Course - EoE Foresight Pilot Topics_Disclaimer.p Download RESCHAPE - Reshaping Supply Chains for a positive social impact Feb 5, 2024 Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Long-Term Implications of the Digital Transition for Farmers and Rural Communities ​ Digital transition_Long-term implications for EU farmers and rural communities.pdf Download ESPAS Horizon Scanning ​ Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Futures Consciousness Scale Nov 29, 2023 The Five Dimensions of Futures Consciousness.pdf Download How will we disgust our descendants? Nov 21, 2023 Report_How will we disgust our descendants.pdf Download Chem4EU Foresight for chemicals Nov 21, 2023 Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. 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Futures of civic resilience in Europe Nov 6, 2023 FoD_Policy Brief_Civic Resilience.pdf Download FORPOL Oct 18, 2023 Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Actualization of Czech republic 2030 strategy Oct 18, 2023 Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. Verlinke deinen Text beliebig oder richte ein Textfeld ein, das sich per Klick vergrößert. Text hier eingeben ... Foresight for Social Innovation Oct 18, 2023 Aufklappbarer Text ist ideal für längere Abschnittstitel und Beschreibungen. So können Personen auf alle notwendigen Informationen zugreifen, während das Layout übersichtlich bleibt. 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COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Business Hippie Club > Business Hippie Club A free platform for everyone to share and find ideas to make our world a better place. You can post your idea or project to find others to co-develop your concept and make a contribution for a more balanced social economy based on human values. 26787 0 1 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://businesshippie.club/ OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Economy Social responsibility Regenerative economy Circular economy MEET THE EXPERTS Futures4Europe Admin View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 1 0 Présentation intermédiaire publique de la vision stratégique pour l'économie luxembourgeoise en 2050 I very much enjoyed the Luxembourg Strategy event on 5 June 2023 presenting its draft vision for the Economy in 2050. Here is a country leading the way by setting out how to reach a zero-carbon future. Adrian Taylor 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg Luxembourg Strategy, the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks:1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbeing since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transitions since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finances since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html 7420 2 Rapid Exploration: The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activity This rapid exploration is part of the Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe project. As legal order evolves, crime evolves too. Being unbound by the rule of law, crime is a very innovative “sector”, in which innovation is driven by the incentive of high gains as rewards for taking some risks of legal consequences in case the crime is recognised as such and reported to law enforcement agencies. In the case of economic crimes, experts regularly refer to especially low detection and prosecution rates. Among other reasons this is attributable to three particularities being quite special to economic crime: Depending on the modus operandi used for commiting the crime, the victim(s) might not even be aware of the incident. In fear of e.g. losses of reputation and/or customers' trust that may in future cause revenues to decline, companies that have been victims are reluctant to report crimes to law enforcement agencies. Even if crimes are reported, there frequently is a mismatch between the criminal act itself and the offense reported. For example, a business might be aware that a computer has been stolen and reports this incident to the police while the actual target might not be the computer itself but the (sensitive) business information stored on it. About this topic The area of economic crime includes a multitude of quite diverse offenses. Thus, the first relevant question is: What ist the aim or target of the offense? Three main areas of economic crime can be distinguished: Financial crimes, such as blackmailing, embezzlement and tax evasion, often tied to attempts of cutting social security costs Cybercrime, which comprises a wide range of activities from digital scam of sensitive information and spam mails to manipulation of websites and thec onstruction of fake websites or profiles Manipulation of stock exchanges (either for economic gain or for creating geopolitical tensions) A second relevant question relates to who commits economic crime. Next to organised crime groups using criminal proceeds in the legitimate economy (e.g. money laundering, corrupting politicians and government officials, etc.), there are also legitimate businesses facilitating unlawful economic activities (e.g. accountants and lawyers advising criminals) or acting unlawfully (e.g. supporting companies in tax evasion). And there are novel and innovative economic activities that enter new terrain where no clear-cut legal rules exist yet (e.g. in the early days of crypto-currencies). Another question concerns responsibility for prevention as well as for prosecution. Is economic crime a relevant issue to policy-makers, especially for R&I policy-makers? And if not, who should assume responsibility for it (e.g. law enforcement agencies, private security agencies,...). For instance, data can be stolen either by internal perpetrator or external perpetrators. The responsibility for prevention is likely to be different in these cases. A related issue is to identify the causes of non-detection of these crimes, e.g. lack of legal and other experts. There are different types of “illegal earnings”, e.g. (i) criminal acts gaining a large amount of money at once, (ii) digitally receiving small amouts of money from many people over a longer period of time, unnoticed but evnatually amounting to a large sum for the criminals, (iii) a legal enterprises engaged in illegal/ criminal activities (on purpose or without noticing that this is illegal or a grey zone). As the world economy operates more and more through interconnected computerised transactions, new possibilities for intertwining criminal and legal economic activities open up as well as new opportunities for law enforcement.There is a view that the proceeds of crime can be tracked and removed, and thus the interpenetration of criminal markets and legal markets can be controlled. However, there is also a view that establishing the lawful origins of funds used in every transaction is impossible and even undesirable. What level of control is technically feasible and socially desirable? There are at least three types of S&T associated with tracking, managing and fighting crime. One is ICT related, from monitoring, analysing, tracking etc. An interesting issue is whether technological solutions to full tracability can be applied to money (e.g. those applied to products using chemicals)? A second is regulatory techniques for preventing “innovators” from moving outside the sphere of lawful activities, from going too far and entering a grey zone that is unregulated. The third is forensics: techniques of reconstituting what took place and thus attributing responsibility for crimes. Drivers and barriers Major drivers for crime are linked to motivation (high gains because of low perceived low risk, that is, the ‘cost-benefit calculation’ suggests that committing a certain crime is going to be profitable). Technological innovation in digitalisation is an essential precondition for further development of new and already existing crime potential in digital fields, from payment systems to crypto circumvention. We can distinguish roughly several types of motivation for crimes: the intrinsic motivation of engineers to research and innovate can be exploited by criminals; the (felt) marginalised individual or government that is searching for its niche to find extra income, even if it comes illegally; the politically motivated wish to spy on or threaten other countries. The primaeval motivations might be the wish for power, influence, and greed. There are also interesting technological developments emerging that might open up new avenues for criminal activity, often enabled by digitalisation of economic activities. For instance, digitally enabled human enhancement technologies open up possibilities for biohacking, and the ambition to better monitor supply and value chains may open doors to new forms of mis-using this kind of information. Fake profiles and ‘deep fakes” technologies can also be misused to commit digital crimes while staying anonymous on the internet. It seems to be a competition, a kind of race and mutual pushing and pulling between law-makers, police and criminals of who finds a new niche, that is, new opportunities with software, hardware or regulation, to occupy and exploit. On the side of law enforcement agencies, skills and motivation for long search or detection of crime in cyberspace are often missing. It is a matter of resources that are available and time that may be spent on detecting and fighting this kind of crime. One facilitating condition for criminal economic activities is the recent deregulation of financial markets. That opens up windows of opportunity for making money in a grey zone or illegally. In addition, the rate of innovation in digitalisation is so high that regulation can possibly be enacted only with a considerable delay - creativity in crime always leads to new means faster than the introduction of appropriate regulation As the complexity of these issues increases, there is a lack of experts to support law enforcement and we observe a skill mismatch in the technical, social, and legal personnel but also a lack of legal entities to follow up. People are more and more vulnerable to digital fraud and other kinds of crime in the virtual world as new possibilities are constantly emerging. However, if people do not use digital technologies (as a protective measure), they would be excluded from certain economic activities and social life forms. When there is two much security (e.g. with two or more factor authentication), technical hurdles are high and patience is needed. Futures What if criminals are ahead of lawful companies, regulatory bodies, law enforcement agencies, regulatory organisations and other decision-makers in digital innovations? What if criminals offer significantly higher “salaries” to experts, e.g. skilled personnel, or personnel for law-enforcement, personnel that is rare or has high specialisation? What if criminals become major R&D funders? What if they invest and their investment proceeds from illegal activities directly in R&I and people are dependent on this research? What if the full traceability of money poses a risk to creativity and innovation? What if the reliance on self-regulation facilitates economic misdemeanour? What if the world/ parts of our societies are threatened by crime and prosecution of crime digitally? What if the criminal elements control a large part of the economy? What if rogue states facilitate illegal activities, e.g. via cryptocurrencies? What if a large number of companies under financial pressure decide to resort to criminal “service providers” in specific fields, e.g. for waste disposal? 27869 0 Earth4All Earth4All started as a vibrant collective of leading economic thinkers, scientists, policy leaders, and advocates, convened by The Club of Rome, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Stockholm Resilience Centre and the Norwegian Business School. 29435 1 EU Commission meets Doughnut Economics An updated story of how the European Commission is exploring ways to apply Doughnut Economics in policy processes 27472 0 1 2 1 ... 1 2 ... 2 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation > Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation FAO’s Office of Innovation worked with partners on an FAO Chief Scientist initiative on Foresight on emerging agrifood technologies and innovations, aligned with the UN 2.0 process and the FOFA 2022: engaging all key actors of agricultural innovation systems in the foresight on emerging technologies and innovations to better prepare for alternative futures, feeding it into anticipatory action, and convening the global community for constructive dialogue and knowledge exchange. The aim was to support policymakers, investors and innovation actors in their approaches and decision-making. The study assesses a selection of technologies and innovations, which potentially could be of paramount importance in addressing agrifood challenges until 2050, as well as the most important trends and drivers that will influence the emergence of agrifood technologies and innovations and their triggers of change, including some regional aspects. The goal is also to build plausible future scenarios for the evolvement of the emerging technologies and innovations in the future with the time horizon of 2050 to inform future-oriented policymaking. The report is built with inputs from a multistakeholder Delphi survey and online workshops with experts. Alexandrova-Stefanova, N., Nosarzewski, K., Mroczek, Z.K., Audouin, S., Djamen, P., Kolos, N. & Wan, J. 2023. Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation – Global foresight synthesis report . Rome. FAO and Cirad. 7608 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en?details=cc8498en OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Scenarios Agriculture Horizon Scanning Food Delphi MEET THE EXPERTS Kacper Nosarzewski View on LinkedIn Norbert Kołos View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Shaping futures, story by story Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications A new policy brief explores alternative future outcomes for green skills and jobs in Europe 2050. Based on participatory workshops and a foresight deep dive, the policy brief presents four alternative scenarios and their implications for R&I policy. Mikkel Knudsen 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 6: The Futures of Big Tech in Europe The sixth Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop explored futures of Big Tech in Europe. Contemporary societies increasingly rely on Big Tech for different functions, such as work, communication, consumption, and self-expression. Laura Galante 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 6 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Future risks Project Decision makers are faced with a world characterised by increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. These conditions make it more difficult to assess risks when making strategic decisions or planning for the long-term. This project from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) EU Policy Lab starting 2023 presents a foresight approach to increase preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create. Foresight methods offer a way to consider and focus on risks that may be beyond the scope of traditional quantitative and qualitative risk assessment approaches. Several snapshots of the future depict different worlds that have undergone substantial changes as a consequence of emerging developments. An analysis of the risks inherent in the possible futures identified ten risk clusters that are relevant for decision makers, and mapped future developments that might lead to them.The same development pathways that could lead to risks can also create opportunities, and the study provides some examples. Decision makers face the challenge of mitigating the adverse effects of risks, while reaping the benefits of potential opportunities. This study also presents the results of a Delphi survey that evaluated the scope and severity of risks. Three of the 40 risks identified in this study were assessed to be potentially existential for humanity: 1) environmental degradation, 2) environmental disasters, and 3) loss of power by humans. The project started in 2023 and will run until 2024. Next in the development is an engagement tool for policymakers to push the boundaries of foresight on risks in their specific policy making domain. Stay tuned for its launch, later in autumn 2024! Download the Risks on the horizon report Read the blog post from the authors UN Summit of the Future: Risks on the horizon JRC hosted a panel discussion at the UN Summit of the Future on September 21st 2024 on how foresight can complement classical risk assessment methods. The United Nations will publish its first Global Risk Report in Autumn 2024. This follows the UNDRR UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2023. The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission published in June 2024 its report "Risks on the Horizon". In addition, the World Economic Forum published its Global Risk Report in January 2024. The panel gathers together experts behind these reports and speakers highlight how existing foresight methods can help to identify future risks, many of which are inter-generational, by using methods which do not rely on a risk already being known. PanellistsAyaka Suzuki, Director, Strategic Planning and Monitoring Unit, Executive Office of the Secretary-General, United Nations (UN)Lori Moore Merrell, U.S Fire Administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)Thomas Hemmelgarn, Head of Unit, EU Policy Lab, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (EC)Bryonie Guthrie, Foresight and Organizational Transformation, Strategic Intelligence, World Economic Forum (WEF)Timo Harakka, Member of Parliament, Vice Chairperson of the Committee for the Future, FinlandModeratorsTommi Asikainen, Joint Research Centre, European CommissionAnne-Katrin Bock, Joint Research Centre, European Commission Watch the recording of the event UN Web TV Read the insights from the blog 4752 0 Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg Luxembourg Strategy, the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks:1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbeing since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transitions since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finances since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html 7420 2 Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report 5955 0 FUTURINNOV The FUTURINNOV project run by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches. This is done through activities to identify funding priorities, inform programme design, contribute to policy feedback, and develop institutional governance. The main objectives are to:• Provide short and medium-term future-oriented evidence-based advice on signals and trends of emerging technologies, breakthrough innovation, and investment patterns;• Support the development of long-term EIC strategic intelligence, grounded in anticipatory, collective, and hybrid methods, towards knowledge transfer and capacity building; and• Explore innovative anticipatory thinking and future-oriented methodologies to support EIC in its mission as a funding body and a knowledge- provider for policy design and implementation. The project started in the beginning of the 2024 and will run until February 2025. Outputs of the FUTURINNOV project will include three literature reviews identifying and analysing signals of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations as well as findings from horizon scanning workshops. Eyes on the Future: Volume 1 Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1 The report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making.The literature review(1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies,(2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report,(3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies(4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights(5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting. Read the reportRead some insights from the authors on the blog (Dis)Entangling the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics:quantum sensingquantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics modelsmaterials for quantumArtificial Intelligence for quantumerror correctionsolid-state scalabilityquantum for Artificial Intelligencequantum as a service – metacloudquantum computersFurthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility. Read the report 6517 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... 10 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Rapid Exploration: General AI > Rapid Exploration: General AI This rapid exploration is part of the Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe project . What if AI makes our lives much easier and people are used to the applications? What if AI is used for dull tasks, and human intelligence focuses on creativity? What if mobility is exclusively run by autonomous machines/vehicles? What if AI changed the way we understood “intelligence”? What if AI changed the way we organise schools/ education? What if AI changes how we think about knowledge and makes us all computer scientists? What if general AI challenges human decisions? What if AI decides? What if AI was used in (most) decision-making processes? What if AI goes further than we want? What if general AI decides that human life can be sacrificed in certain situations for the sake of the community or other species? How far can we get with Artificial Intelligence (AI) - here, meant as “machine learning”? Computers and supercomputers are extremely good at sequential calculations, calculating correlations and recognising patterns (machine learning, big data) where human capabilities fail. Nonetheless, complex decisions, emotional context and moral aspects are still out of scope for artificial intelligence. There are promises of next-generation, generalised AI (Artificial General Intelligence, AGI), opening up new possibilities for autonomous self-learning systems to be realised. What is the limit of control, and where is the limit of autonomy for these next-generation AI machines? What are the stakes and benefits for society, humanity and the world when including autonomous machines in daily lives (e.g. level 5 self-driving vehicles)? How can the development / AI be governed, and where is the limit if AI is autonomous? How can autonomous machines be trusted to act morally and how do they decide in ethical aspects? DRIVERS AND BARRIERS Massive computing and quantum computers are pushing forward machine learning and the development of general artificial intelligence. In addition, progress is made in systems containing sensors, actuators, and information processing. AI has proven to be useful in many practical applications, but it remains far from “understanding” or consciousness. Huge interest in AI comes from industry, economy, and military as “intelligent” robots could do work, assist humans, and even fight a war without shedding blood. Of course, this form of high tech promises high revenues for companies, and the supranational companies have the resources to finance the advances privately.Nonetheless, there are considerable concerns in society as well. One counter trend could be the “back to nature and frugality” movement, which might lead to the social divide being connected to the urban-rural nexus and the topic of “rising social confrontation”. A central issue is safeguarding security, safety and morality when the driver is the (human) competition? There is already ethical and philosophical discourse: what would be the right value-setting for artificial intelligence? Assuming that there is such a thing as general natural intelligence, what are the relationships between intelligence, morality and wisdom? Do we want general intelligence or general wisdom?What would happen when AI started training itself? This poses the question of control of AI. FUTURES 29900 0 1 EXTERNAL LINKS OUTPUTS Artificial General Intelligence_Issues and Opportunities_Rapid exploration.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren EU R&I policy Technological change Artificial intelligence MEET THE EXPERTS Futures4Europe Admin View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Project Launches Report on R&I Actors and Foresight Activities in Europe The European foresight community has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. The newly published Eye of Europe report "Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe" provides an assessment of just that, namely the actors, preferred methodologies, success factors and bottlenecks for effective R&I foresight projects, as well as trends for future R&I foresight projects in Europe. Simon Winter 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Emerging Practices in Foresight for Research & Innovation policy Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 An Interview with Eye of Europe's Project Coordinator Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2750 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 Sound of Contagion – An Artistic Research Project Exploring A.I. as a Creative Tool for Transmedial Storytelling The collaborative project Sound of Contagion (SoC), conducted between 2020-2023, is a transmedial art project addressing the cultural narratives surrounding global diseases and pandemics. SoC explores the intersection of artificial intelligence and creative storytelling by examining A.I. as a tool to inspire and enhance artistic expression. Interdisciplinary Collaboration: The project brought together diverse talents from literature, cultural studies, music, and visual arts, exploring how A.I. can be integrated into human-technical collaborations. A.I. as a Creative Tool: Utilizing GPT-2 trained on pandemic narratives from the past 2500 years, unique text fragments were generated. These fragments served as a foundation for creating stories, illustrations, and musical compositions, showcasing A.I.'s role in inspiring collective creativity. Transmedial Approach: The work spanned multiple media formats. From written narratives to illustrations, musical adaptations, and a lecture performance in Oxford, the project demonstrated how A.I.-generated content could be transformed and enriched across different artistic disciplines. Ultimately, the project challenges the notion that A.I. can independently create art, instead highlighting its potential as a collaborative tool in future artistic processes. To explore more about the project methodology and findings, read the chapter dedicated to the project Sound of Contagion, authored by Wenzel Mehnert, Robert Laidlow, Chelsea Haith & Sara Laubscher, at page 97 in the volume Artificial Intelligence – Intelligent Art? Human-Machine Interaction and Creative Practice, DOI: 10.14361/9783839469224. Partners University of the Arts, Berlin, Germany University of Oxford, UK 5604 0 MEGATRENDS 2050. THE CHANGING WORLD: impacts in Portugal The digital brochure "Megatrends 2050, Changing World: Impacts on Portugal - a Brief Introduction" is now available. This is a publication by the Planning and Foresight Services Network of the Public Administration (RePLAN), as part of the activities carried out by the Multisectoral Foresight Team. RePLAN is chaired by the Public Administration Planning, Policy and Foresight Competence Center (PlanAPP), in which the FCT participates. Duration of the study: The project was launched in June 2023 and will be concluded with the launch of the final report in April 2025. The document, available on the PlanAPP website, is a brief introduction to the 2050 Megatrends Report for Portugal, to be published by the end of year 2024. It presents, in a brief and preliminary way, the nine megatrends that are likely to shape the future of our country, with a general description and a list of the most relevant potential impacts: Worsening climate change; Growing pressure on natural resources; Diversifying and changing economic models; Diverging demographic trends; A more urban world; A more digital world; Accelerating technological development; A multipolar world and New challenges to democracy. The identification and description of megatrends for Portugal is a work in progress, based on a collaborative, systematic and open process. During this year, with the aim of producing a report and supporting the formulation of public policies, this process will be deepened with workshops, expert consultation and citizen participation. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. Complete list of the partner institutions: Coordinator: Centro de Competências de Planeamento, de Políticas e de Prospetiva da Administração Pública (PlanAPP) Co-coordinators: Direção-Geral de Política de Defesa Nacional (DGPDN) Secretaria-Geral do Ambiente (SGA) · Contributors: · Instituto Nacional de Administração I. P. (INA) · Direção-Geral da Política de Justiça (DGPJ) · Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais (GPEARI) · Instituto Português do Desporto e Juventude, I.P. (IPDJ) · Comissão para a Cidadania e a Igualdade de Género (CIG) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) · Direção-Geral de Política do Mar (DGPM) · Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência (DGEEC) · Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) · LNEG - Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia e do Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana. I.P. (IHRU). · Instituto da defesa Nacional (IDN) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Planeamento (GEP) do Ministério do Trabalho, Solidariedade e Segurança Social (MTSSS) 5247 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 8 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts AI suggested 40,000 new possible chemical weapons in just six hours Blog April 11, 2022 14 0 1 Rise of the racist robots – how AI is learning all our worst impulses Blog March 14, 2022 10 0 0 Excellence and trust in artificial intelligence (EU and AI) Blog February 2, 2022 6 0 0 Foresight, advertising and the future of mobility Blog January 28, 2022 17 1 2 1 2 3 4 1 ... 1 2 3 4 ... 4 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Futures of using nature in rural and marine Europe in 2050: Policy implications / Futures of using nature in rural and marine Europe in 2050: Policy implications Totti Könnölä Aug 14, 2023 The immense social and technological evolution of the Anthropocene continues transforming the Earth’s surface and its dynamics through extensive (mis-)use of its resources, both on the land and in the sea. These challenges were addressed in the Deep Dive on rural and marine areas in Europe in 2050. We present here policy implications drafted based on the four scenarios developed. In Scenario A, European Civic Ecovillages pursue self-sufficiency and contribute to establishing a cooperative, locally oriented, caring economy restoring the ecosystem carrying capacities in land and sea. In Scenario B on Sustainable High-tech Europe, European businesses enjoy global leadership in regenerative and multi-functional high-tech solutions for energy, aquaculture and agriculture. In Scenario C on the United States of Europe, centrally planned Europe is divided between intensive use of land and sea and large conservation areas. Scenario D on European Permacrisis portrays Europe in a post-growth and politically scattered context that leads to low rates of innovation and fragmented use of land and sea. Please find the full blog post on the scenarios here . Each scenario depicts a different future in rural and marine Europe. None of the scenarios features a decisive solution to the global climate and biodiversity crises. Scenario A forcefully targets the resolution of the biodiversity crisis in Europe, by aligning human practices with nature, but provides little support to global climate and biodiversity crises. Scenario B proactively tackles the biodiversity crisis both in Europe and internationally but struggles with the fragmentation of efforts and with scaling up good practices and wider impact to curb the crisis. Scenarios C and D with intensive use of nature reduce biodiversity. Thanks to European-wide coordination Scenario C can protect vast areas with positive impacts to biodiversity, whereas Scenario D struggles with the major fragmentation of conservation efforts and its detrimental impact on biodiversity. Such challenges illustrate the importance of balanced approaches in developing both local and global solutions to climate and biodiversity crises. The subsequent further cross-cutting analysis pinpoints some threats and opportunities for rural and marine areas in Europe. This may provide a basis for further reflection on the possible role of R&I policy in Europe in the future and serve as inspiration when designing future R&I programmes in Europe. Economy and technology • In three of the scenarios big business plays a key role in determining what is scaled up but, in parallel, local communities try out solutions. Apart from the rest, in scenario A (European civic ecovillage) both the innovation and deployment are in local communities. R&I programmes searching for scale could well benefit from both dynamics. • All scenarios face the challenge of balancing sustainability and food affordability and security in different modalities of agriculture and aquaculture. The advances may well come from integrated approaches that also consider major shifts in diets and production. • Solving negative externalities of large-scale monoculture continues to be a relevant research stream, for instance via precision farming (see scenario C). Still, research and development is also needed on alternative farming practices that allow closing the loops and controlling the production, for instance, vertical farming, aquaponics and (semi)-closed recirculating water systems for aquaculture highlighted in scenarios A and B. • Multifunctional use of land and sea can provide win-win solutions, e.g. aquaponics, agrivoltaics, agroforestry, marine permaculture and floating PV panels, and thus strike a balance between different needs. This often represents major changes in practices; thus, the local (prosumer) communities need to be part of the process for their insights and buy-in (especially prevalent in scenarios A and B). Demographics, lifestyles and values • All the scenarios depict the future of rural and marine areas related to socio-ecological crises. Further research could aim to strengthen civic resilience. Could measures to increase crisis preparedness among individual and local communities be developed? • Research on the future of rural and marine areas and demographic changes could be useful given the above-mentioned uncertainties. For instance, water scarcity or other climate-related crises may induce major migrations also in Europe. • Fragmentation in rural and marine communities and planning can become a major concern. Even if good practices exist, fragmentation hampers their scaling up, while coordination may breed thriving active local communities. R&I programmes could provide opportunities for further mapping, showcasing and enhancing the mutual learning between good practices of local community-based organisations. • The livelihood of rural communities is to a greater or lesser degree entangled with urben spaces and how their inhabitants value rural communities. R&I can be involved in pursuing better connections between urban and rural, such as online farmers’ markets, remote working and the future evolution of rural infrastructure. Governance • The diffusion of innovations is crucial for sustainable rural and marine areas. In this respect, and where the framework conditions favour planning and encourage investment, it should be easier to scale up. R&I policy should aim to improve framework conditions, including the predictability of government R&I programmes. • Integrated spatial planning of urban and rural areas is a key issue. Space, whether land or sea, could be envisaged as an integrated territory defined by orography and natural geography, e.g. drainage basins, regional watersheds and coastal seabed (see the figure below), rather than socio-political boundaries. R&I policy instruments could be demarcated with such an integrated approach in mind; joint cross-national research institutes and infrastructure could be established. • The use of spaces could benefit from extending user rights. For instance, land ownership models in some rural areas could be replaced or complemented with public ownership and user rights, learning from the practices within the marine sector, with the state granting user rights in certain areas or through the designation of protected areas, excluding or revoking user rights previously in force. Experimentation, e.g. in regulatory sandboxes, could also rely on public sector innovation processes. Before experimentation in regulatory sandboxes can take place, there is a need for R&I efforts to detail how the user rights could be extended in different conditions and what would be the impacts to different stakeholders. • The scenarios related to diverse democratic practices. Policy labs on citizen participation in decisions on rural and marine areas could serve to connect citizens with these areas. Direct involvement of local communities in R&I programmes could be a means to avoid NIMBY effects and ensure their support. Environment • There are major risks in a patchy land and sea use that segments ecosystems and breaks up ecological corridors, diminishing the biodiversity and the resilience of nature. R&I programmes on integrated spatial planning of land and sea, also including for in-land waters, can pave the way towards more resilient, more circular water use and integrated management for addressing tensions between alternative uses of land and sea and in parallel ensuring sufficient size of protected areas. • The effects of monoculture and economic specialisation reducing societal and ecological resilience could be mitigated by concentrating them on limited high-intensity production areas and by scaling up regenerative alternative practices. Both these directions could be promoted via R&I instruments to experiment and learn about ecological and socio-economic implications. • Technology could play an important role in monitoring nature to understand it and the impacts of human actions. Multidisciplinary research on resilience in rural and marine areas could help increase preparedness, including integrated planning supported with biodiversity monitoring combining in-situ sensors and remote space technologies and advances in data analytics (AI) and construction of digital twins of integrated spaces for developing reliable future projections. Also, advances in guidance and toolkits could serve to improve the reliability of citizen science. • Regenerative ecosystem-based approaches and practices could strengthen synergies between nature restoration and production activities. R&I programmes could experiment scaling up such practices, and with how nature restoration and rewilding could be further connected to climate mitigation and climate adaptation. Final remarks This brief is the result of one of eight Deep Dive Foresight Studies in the project ‘European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe ’ conducted by the Foresight on Demand consortium for the European Commission. During the spring of 2023, an expert team identified factors of change and organised two scenario and one policy implications workshops also engaging experts from academia, business and public administration around Europe. The process was also supported by discussions in the Horizon Europe Foresight Network. The complete policy brief and further information about the project are available here . 20751 0 0 Oceans Coastal areas Land use EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1582 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 505 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Green Dream / Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Green Dream Sirkku Juhola Aug 30, 2022 This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'green dream' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments! Scenario dimensions Strong global governance; Sustainable lifestyles; Adverse to risk-taking; Vigorous activism Impacts and risk areas in 2040, global warming stays below 1.3C above pre-industrial levels and is expected to stabilised below 1.5C. While this is resulting in broadly moderate changes and risks in the existing climate, in some areas like coral reefs and glaciers impacts are severe. Hazards in Europe are mostly visible in key exposure areas, such as cities, and settlements in low-lying areas, affecting key infrastructure. Hazards include moderate sea level rise and increased heatwaves that affect human health and the agricultural sector. Climate risks assessments are regularly employed to assess how much adaptation is necessary. Demographics, economy and governance High levels of mitigation and adaptation are driven by the EU strategic shift towards sustainable energy autonomy, accelerated by the war in Ukraine in the early 2020s. Climate policy is also strongly driven by member states and regional authorities, particularly in higher-risk areas. Guidelines issued for European businesses, such as the EU Taxonomy and ESG investments have heavily influenced and steered businesses towards more sustainable practices for several decades. This has encouraged European climate business to grow and lead the global markets, supported by decades of joint research and development towards just transitions. The EU has been successful in leading global governance efforts in climate policy and major powers like the US and China have joined forces to push other lagging countries to strengthen the commitments. The countries have also ratified the Global Carbon Tax Agreement and the precautionary Pact for Common Geoengineering Mechanism. The former aims to alleviate past injustices by using proceeds for restorative climate and development measures globally. The latter provides the forum to discuss geoengineering approaches in an transparent way. All this is backed by international financial cooperation for mitigation and adaptation, ensuring also funds for developing countries. The EU celebrates its ten-year anniversary of banning investments in fossil fuel-based assets. Within the EU, the institutional redesign has drawn heavily on the principles of just transition and climate justice, building wide support for climate action. At the local level, citizen assemblies are a common way of engaging people. EU-wide Climate Barometer+, a deliberative policy tool which gauges European public opinion and is rarely ignored when decisions are made in terms of climate policy. It is employed Unionwide at regular intervals to gauge the public opinion and acceptability of climate policy. These include risk acceptance surveys of climate policy (strategy and implementation), and although the results are not legally binding, they nevertheless raise the level of compliance of policies across the Union. Acceptance of risk continues to be low, steering the options towards the “precautionary principle” and also screening out some climate solutions. Practices and technologies Official climate policies have taken up many initiatives of civil movements, among others flexible and or shorter work weeks, promotion of shared housing and plant-based diets. Furthermore, the focus on responsible research and innovation to ensure social acceptability of new practices and technologies have supported the rapid diffusion of prosumer schemes of urban farming and renewable energy micro-grids and mobility, for instance. Integrated systemic approaches building on synergies between adaptation and mitigation and sustainability more broadly have created green, liveable and walkable cities, and neighbourhoods. European public-private partnerships are ‘exporting’ this know-how, widely requested across the world with supported social innovations and mechanisms of deliberative democracy for informed decision-making regarding climate. The EU climate policy portfolio also includes some less risky geoengineering options. In accordance with the new Common Geoengineering Mechanism, the EU is championing international pilots on ocean alkalinization and de-desertification and directing significant investments in biochar, extensive peatland and wetland restoration across the EU and scaling up permaculture and agroforestry practices. Acceptability of new geoengineering options is gauged through deliberative tools before they are piloted. The social and environmental impacts of any new geoengineering are assessed based on the Directive for NBS (for mitigation, adaptation and carbon removal), which sets effective standards and mechanisms to prevent undesirable side-impacts. Lifestyles and activism In Europe, people have become highly aware of the climate crisis and, even if they feel personally less vulnerable to changes, they stay committed to climate action through demonstrations, boycotts and witnessing and watching, as well as influencing through consumer choice and shareholder activism. These social movements have jointly contributed to the general outlook and preferences in lifestyles that emphasise frugality and sustainability, translating into shifts towards more sustainable mobility, housing and working. 17615 0 3 Scenarios Climate change Just transition Sustainable living Global governance Geoengineering EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1582 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 505 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / S&T&I for 2050 Perspectives on Ecosystem Performance / S&T&I for 2050 Perspectives on Ecosystem Performance Klaus Kubeczko Oct 3, 2022 “S&T&I for 2050” aims at broadening the focus of STI to encompass multiple conceptualisations of human-nature relations. To do this, a framework was constructed around the concept of ecosystem performance as driver of STI, instead of human performance. This places the attention on the flourishing of ecosystems that is deeply connected to human needs and wellbeing. Identifying STI and policy directions for ecosystem performance entails a conceptualisation of what an ecosystem is, how an ecosystem flourishes and what is the relation between humans and nature. We selected, analysed, and categorised fourteen schools of thought that have guided human activities towards ecosystem stewardship. Three perspectives resulted from this effort: “Protecting and restoring ecosystems”, concerned with preservation of ecosystems by managing the impact from human activities; “Co-Shaping socio-ecological systems”, concerned with simultaneous development of social practices and ecological processes towards resilience and sustainability renewal; “Caring within hybrid collectives”, concerned with the establishment of caring relationships in new collectives with humans and other entities on an equal level. These perspectives guided the delineation of future scenarios and STI developments in six thematic case studies. Download the paper delineating the framework: FOD Ecosystem Performance Deliverable 1.1_220321_revised_for_workshop-series_210506 .pdf Download PDF • 1.56MB Main characteristics of the three perspectives on Ecosystem Performance PROTECTING AND RESTORING ECOSYSTEMS Schools of thought included in this perspective are: IMP Environmental Impact Assessment IPBES Model of biodiversity and ecosystem services BIR Biosphere Rules SEV Social Ecology Vienna School CO-SHAPING SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS Schools of thought included in this perspective are: SES Socio-Ecological Systems BRD Biomimicry & Regenerative Design PHH Planetary & Human Health PSB Planetary & Social Boundaries with some elements of two further schools of thought: SEV Social Ecology Vienna School GAI Facing Gaia CARING WITHIN HYBRID COLLECTIVES Schools of thought included in this perspective are: GAI Facing Gaia KIN Kinmaking PHK Posthuman Knowledge MSJ Multi-Species Justice BIC Biocentrism DEC Deep Ecology 16049 0 0 Ecosystems EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1582 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 505 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost