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THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications / Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications Mikkel Knudsen Dec 15, 2023 A new policy brief explores alternative future outcomes for green skills and jobs in Europe 2050. Based on participatory workshops and a foresight deep dive, the policy brief presents four alternative scenarios and their implications for R&I policy. Climate change and environmental degradation are existential threats to the European Union and to the world. As a response, the EU has pushed for a green transition with, among other things, the European Green Deal and its aims of making Europe climate-neutral by 2050. If followed through, the transition towards greener and more sustainable economies is a game changer in the EU labour market alongside digitalisation and automation. Skill needs will change with impacts far beyond the key occupations driving them. In fact, more or less all economic sectors will be affected. To succeed, Europe needs to promote and support green employment, address the skilling and reskilling of workers, and anticipate changes in workplaces of the future. In order to get a better grasp on potential future outcomes, and better anticipate their potential policy implications, a foresight Deep Dive was carried out with the main findings presented here. 16 alternative futures devised, four elaborated in further detail The expert team, with input from stakeholders and workshop participants, initially produced a scenario matrix based on four dichotomic dimensions. The dichotomic dimensions relates to the state of the environment in 2050 (positive extremes, negative extremes), EU's ability to provide global leadership in green solutions and technologies (positive and negative extremes), the supply of a green skilled workforce in Europe (high and low supply), and, finally, the demand for a green workforce (high and low demand). The scenario matrix produces 16 alternative futures from which four were chosen by the expert team and the scenario participants for further exploration. The policy brief identifies key features from the four scenarios: · Scenario A: Green technology-intensive Europe: Struggling to fill all the green jobs. Here, the European Union has advanced in a green transition across society and, as a result of the effort, has gained global leadership in green solutions. New green technologies and the consistent need for reckoning with past environmental damage and past climate change emissions (i.e. adaptation to rising temperatures and reactions to adverse weather events) accelerates demand for green skills. However, with European demographic developments there is a low offer of green skilled workers and a struggle to fill all the green jobs. The key challenge of the skills ecosystem is to match the high demand for green skills. · Scenario B: Apocalypse Soon: Fighting skills mismatches in a degraded environment. Here, Europe plays a leading global role in green tech with booming exports, but the environment is in a critical state in Europe and globally. Society is polarised as some industrial sectors are booming, while a majority of the European population struggles with deteriorating living standards and increased damages from natural disasters. The capacity of states and non-green sectors to provide skills training has been limited, reinforcing labour market polarization and trapping companies in non-green sectors in vicious cycles. · Scenario C: Feeling the pain: A workforce left behind in a non-green world. This scenario represents increasing environmental pressures from man-made climate change that have not been effectively addressed over the past decades. The EU is a follower, not a leader. People in 2050 are dealing with rising temperatures, accelerated loss of biodiversity and nature, increased pollution, and more adverse weather events. A significant number of green jobs concern themselves with adaptation to system pressures and even systems breakdowns, i.e. limiting the negative impacts of environmental damages. This has impacted jobs because EU employers have little demand for green skills. The main industrial and innovation organisations are based outside Europe and are using remote working and technology to undertake many job roles and tasks. Over the past three decades, people have been investing in green skills believing that these will be in demand. However, the state of the EU green market means that many of these skills are now redundant or outdated. Consequently, there is an oversupply of green skilled labour from those already in the labour market and those seeking to enter it. · Scenario D: Green leapfrogging: Old, mismatched Europe surrounded by new green giants. In 2050, third countries and regions have leapfrogged leaving Europe behind. The world has seen geopolitical shifts, but also an improved environment. Young people leave the EU to work in countries with positive green agendas. Countries within the EU begin to align themselves with non-EU green leaders rather than promote unity from within. Towards 2050, EU is in ‘catch-up mode’ trying to restructure the economic and skills ecosystems towards modes more aligned within planetary boundaries and with the green, global development trends. The four scenarios purposefully explored potential extremes within the dominant scenario dimensions. Together, they highlight that there is no certainty for the long-term development of the supply or demand of green skills on the European labour market. Rather, the supply and demand will be shaped by the outcomes of certain key factors and through key policy choices of the present and of the near-future. The policy brief did highlight several other key findings deemed relevant across the various development paths. First, each scenario highlights the importance of a strong, vocational education and training (VET) skills base. The brief stresses that the category of green jobs, now and in the future, encompasses both low, medium and high-tech professions. An R&I policy underpinning green skills should therefore consider various levels, not just frontier (green) technology development. Beyond the design of the solution, a VET base with transferable skills and short-term skills programming is important for the solution's societal deployment and uptake. A resilient workforce ready to take on 'bolt-on' skills quickly will also be highly sought after if changing weather conditions increasingly requires rapid responses for which needs are difficult to predict years in advance. Another feature across the scenarios is the uncertainty related to the label 'green'. Looking back from 2050, people will likely question parts of what is today categorised as green. Our shared understanding of what green means is reconfigured over time. European R&I policy should devise mechanisms that can reflect - perhaps even anticipate - such shifting value attributions. If there is not such a reassessment mechanism, there will likely be overinvestments in technologies and solutions that ceases to be considered as green improvements. Finally, the scenarios address the need for stronger international cooperation for the development of green skills. Climate change and environmental challenges require global uptake of solutions. An isolated Europe is unlikely to lead to positive outcomes for both environment and (European) employment simultaneously. In the more optimistic future outcomes, a key defining challenge will be to make the green labour market more diverse and inclusive. This is a challenge that European R&I policy would do well to take up already today. Please read the full brief here: https://www.futures4europe.eu/_files/ugd/b20891_aa373683eb1d470a9d04068039bda39f.pdf 10946 0 8 Green Skills Deep Dive Scenarios EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1539 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2087 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 475 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > STORIES > Need to refocus > Need to refocus Anonymous April 26, 2023 This image was generated with Dream Studio AI. Show original text At the time of my grandparents, life was kind of a struggle. It often meant working 9 hours per day and six days a week to ensure a better future to the children. Last year my grandfather gave me my grandmother’s engagement ring and he told me he saved up money for one year and paid in instalments to get it. That old fashioned jewel was a source of pride and happiness for him and not only a sentimental object. Our society teaches us to disvalue old objects and to buy new ones. In my future society I wish that, for example, fixing electronics that don’t work or offering (and not just buying) a second-hand product become a new norm. Unfortunately, today, you would more likely pay a new low-quality t-shit 3 euro than ask to a seamstress to fix an old one with the risk of spending more money and time. Buying “new” costs less than fixing the “old” but “you have to be rich to buy cheap products” said Joseph (another grandfather) because cheap products deteriorate faster over time. However, the reality is more complex than that and I question the way in which we value objects in general. Nowadays we are constantly bombarded by commercial advertisements that make people buy more than they need, the cheapest they find or the fancier they can. They make them wishing to buy objects that will end up in a trash or in a basement within the year, to buy products that they cannot afford to portray another image of themselves, to buy cheap low-quality products that hide big ecological and social impacts. In 2040 I see people living with less and giving more importance not only to second hand products but also to the relationship with the other and to the relationship with themselves. I see a Europe that disincentives product advertisements in favour of the promotion of “human services” that help us enhancing our mental and physical wellbeing. We will watch massive public campaigns on the TV channels, on social medias and on the street promoting the benefits of an healthy diet or the importance of being in a good physical shape for diseases prevention and slowing the aging. Psychological support will be free and encouraged not only to overcome personal traumas but also to achieve mindfulness. In 2040 I wish that all the consumers will be able to make more informed choices. Policies will promote not only the consumption of local products but will impose that prices take into account the indirect negative externalities (technical externalities). Consumerism will no longer jeopardise our long-term interests and the satisfaction of our self-actualization needs. I think that in 2040 we will still live in a wealthier society than the one of our grandparents but if we want to live in a happier and more altruistic society, Europe should strongly encourage a new type of consumption. 334 0 0 Memoiren Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 Be part of the foresight community! The future is shaped by our ideas and our actions today. Tell us about your visions of the future and help us create a futures narrative aimed at inspiring citizens, policy-makers and foresight experts alike! Submit your story Get insights from the #ourfutures projects Go to the #ourfutures dashboard Let’s make your vision of the future matter! Write your future story and answer a few questions Become a member of our growing Futures4Europe community Find out what others think by exploring other contributions Take a look at the #ourfutures dashboard for some numbers Your story, and those of others, are presented to EU policymakers Write Sign Up Explore Numbers Results related stories More Stories 1584 0 2 A better place for the world. Anonymous In the future i see Sustainable practises becoming more commonplace, redefining our interaction with the environment. Renewable energy, eco-friendly transportation, green areas, sustainable agriculture, and trash reduction are all projected in the future. I see the world being better and cleaner. That future would be nice as the roads would be clean and have no trash. 1177 0 1 Transformation Era Anonymous life in 2040 I am hoping for better changes and improvement in our government because our government is slowly ruining our country with corruption in the departments, there must be improvements, especially in health living, public clinics are providing poor service also the health workers behavior is the worst they need to treat patient well with respect and stop undermining the poor because they also need to be treated with care. Social justice must be well-implemented, be improved more especially on crime, the crime rate is very high in South Africa and we no longer feel safe walking around whether in daylight or at night, something should be done about the youth that turn into criminals instead of studying or doing something legit to make a living. car hijacking, money heists, fraud, corruption, and gadget robbery are the most dominating crimes that need a permanent change. I would describe the future as a life of improvement especially in education (fees and safe space that has no discrimination, racism, and equality). In governance, I am looking at a future that has improved facilities and leadership skills. better working environments, and job creation that will minimize crime, there shouldn't be a thing of hiring people because they are friends, relatives, or some sort of connection. everyone should be given a chance to work and use their qualifications without age restriction. 767 0 1 An integral Europe that revitalises its spiritual roots (Ein integrales Europa, das seine spirituellen Wurzeln wiederbelebt) Anonymous Following a longer dialogue in the sense of a dialogical aesthetic in the Antrhopociene (the working title of my artistic research) with ChatGPT, the following vision emerged: In 2040, Europe has undergone a profound transformation and has become a model of regeneration, spirituality, peace and an integral world vision integrating European and non-European indigenous wisdoms. This vision shows how civil society processes and the public interest economy are involved in this transformation process: 1. Participatory communities: European cities and regions have developed a culture of active participation and participation. Citizens shape local decisions and projects, leading to vibrant and committed communities. 2. Public service enterprises: Europe has experienced a blooming period of companies in the public interest. In addition to profit-making, these companies actively promote social and environmental responsibility and promote fair working conditions. 3. Education for sustainability: The education system in Europe emphasises the importance of sustainability, ethics and social engagement. Schools and universities encourage students to work for environmental protection, peace and the common good. 4. Ecological neighbourhoods: European cities have become ecological neighbourhoods where sustainable construction and renewable energy are promoted. People live in green communities and share resources. 5. Cultural diversity and integration: Europe has experienced a cultural renaissance characterised by the integration of diverse cultural influences. Artists and creators from different backgrounds enrich the cultural landscape. 6. Intergenerational dialogue: Society promotes intergenerational dialogue and respects the knowledge and experience of older people. Communities are characterised by a sense of attachment between the young and the old. 7. Health and prevention: Europe has focused on preventive medicine and holistic healthcare. People pay attention to their physical and mental health and use natural curative methods. 8. Global cooperation: Europe is actively working with countries and regions around the world to address global challenges. Together, they are committed to peace, environmental protection and social justice. 9. Regenerative agriculture: European agriculture has embraced regenerative practices that restore soils and promote biodiversity. Farmers use organic farming methods. 10. Indigenous wisdoms and common good: Europe has integrated indigenous wisdoms from different cultures and uses them as a source of inspiration for community projects, environmental protection and social justice. These wisdoms emphasise the importance of the balance in nature and the common good. Civil society processes and the public interest economy have played a crucial role in shaping and promoting this holistic vision for Europe in 2040. They have shaped a society based on values such as cooperation, sustainability, social justice and respect for nature. Europe lives in line with the spiritual dimensions of life and honours the diversity of indigenous wisdoms that contribute to regeneration, peace and harmony. 966 0 1 We are all human truth (Somos todos humanos de verdade) Anonymous Equity and social justice: universal wage means legislation that makes it part of a wealth of wealth directed towards hunger eradication programmes and healthy living environments for populations in need of infrastructure. Economies with free competition and lower capital concentration. 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 ... 192

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Is Hydrogen That Good for the Climate? / Is Hydrogen That Good for the Climate? Corina Murafa Dec 7, 2022 The answer is probably, a classic: "it depends". Hydrogen is the smallest and lightest molecule in the world. It is about eight times lighter than methane. There's a lot of methane leakage around the world. And by "a lot", I really mean a lot. Satellite imagery by the European Space Agency collected data that proves there is significantly more leakage in the atmosphere than official estimates. And methane has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere (Source: Environmental Defense Fund - EDF). Some of this methane leakage is due to sheer industry negligence (oil and gas companies have been proven to do routine gas flaring), but also to bad casings, old pipes, and all sorts of infrastructure mishaps that are bound to happen in any industry. Now imagine how much easier is for hydrogen - a much lighter molecule than methane - to escape and leak, particularly when we blend it with natural gas in existing pipelines, as is the case in the plans of many countries in Europe - including Romania, my home country. What's the scientific evidence to date of the potential environmental consequences of methane leakage? EDF lab studies have shown that hydrogen leakage is, in the best case, around 1% but could go up to as much as 10%. And a 10% leak could lead to 0.1°C or 0.4°C increases, the scientists claim. And this is because hydrogen has an indirect global warming effect by extending the lifetime of other GHGs (Fan et al., 2022). UK-based scientific evidence brings about even more worrisome figures: hydrogen may have a 100-year global warming potential of about 11 times greater than carbon dioxide (Warwick et al., 2022). Compared to the warming it is trying to abate by displacing fossil fuels, it turns out that in a high leakage scenario, "hydrogen emissions could yield nearly twice as much warming in the first five years after replacing its fossil fuel counterparts." On the other hand, if leaks are minimal, the climate benefits are consistent - an 80% decrease in warming compared to fossil fuels over the same period of time. The danger is real, it seems, even in the case of green hydrogen, let alone in the case of blue hydrogen, where the combo between methane leaks and hydrogen leaks could be a truly deadly cocktail for the planet. Leakage is assumed to be lowest in industrial on-site usage and highest in the production process, followed by transportation and delivery, while not enough data is available for the end-use leakage. Specialists believe that measures such as designing new hydrogen infrastructure with a focus on leakage prevention and penalising leakage where it does occur, alongside focusing on incentivizing hydrogen in so-called "hubs" (industrial sites where it is both produced and consumed), to the detriment of decentralized usage (e.g., in heating and transportation), can still keep hydrogen a climate ally rather than a climate foe (Koch Blank et al., 2022). Research on these topics is still in its infancy, with most of the peer-reviewed reports released in 2022. It is clear that intense further research is needed on leakage risks, mitigation strategies, and warming effects. At the same time, however, as the "hydrogen rush" is already moving ahead at full speed in the EU, it's probably worth introducing strong safeguards from the very beginning, in parallel to the advance of sciences: prioritise green over any other colour of hydrogen prioritise hydrogen in sectors where it can be easily produced and consumed onsite (and which are hard to decarbonize to start with, like the fertilizer industry or steel production) and deploy hydrogen at scale in other sectors (e.g.: transportation, heating) later. This probably makes sense from a basic business planning perspective, too. create new infrastructure for hydrogen, and don't retrofit old pipes that leak. put in place the highest level industry standards for leakage prevention unlike methane, where many jurisdictions are still not taxing leakage with hydrogen; let's not repeat the mistakes of the past, and let's design a leakage penalty system from the very beginning. References: Ilissa B. Ocko and Steven P. Hamburg, Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), 2022, “Climate consequences of hydrogen emissions”, in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9349–9368, 2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9349-2022 Fan, Z., et al, 2022, “Hydrogen Leakage: A Potential Risk for the Hydrogen Economy”, Columbia, SIPA, Center on Global Energy Policy, available at https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/pictures/Hydrogen%20Leakage%20Regulations,%20designed,%207.21.22.pdf Koch Blank T. et al., 2022, “Hydrogen Reality Check #1 : Hydrogen Is Not a Significant Warming Risk”, available at https://rmi.org/hydrogen-reality-check-1-hydrogen-is-not-a-significant-warming-risk/ 19690 0 1 Hydrogen EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1540 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2088 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 475 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Shaping the Skills Needed for the Future of Automated Mobility / Shaping the Skills Needed for the Future of Automated Mobility Laura Galante Oct 6, 2023 In the fast-moving realm of mobility, one fact stands out: the road to success requires new skills. To meet evolving customer needs, embrace cutting-edge technologies, and fulfil environmental commit-ments, the transport sector is turning to automation for sustainable, cost-effective, and inclusive mobility solutions. However, the interplay between automation, reskilling, and sustainability is more complex than meets the eye. WE-TRANSFORM is on a mission. The project leverages existing data and the collective expertise of individuals to craft a cross-national Living Hub. It serves as both a knowledge repository of research actions related to transport automation, as well as a catalyst for smarter decisions paving the way for innovative, evidence-based policymaking in the mobility landscape. For Cristina Pronello, Professor at the Politecnico di Torino , Italy, and Coordinator of the project, automation is changing the way in which we work and live our daily lives. In particular, automation will have a significant impact on mobility’s future development, implying big changes for both the organisation of companies and the way that employees work. There are also operational issues and impacts thanks to automation and digitalisation, as well as financial and regulatory aspects. Pronello makes the example of the automation of the metro in her city in Torino, Italy. Automated transport vehicles have an effect on the workforce, according to her: “You do not need drivers anymore because the metro is driverless, but it implies a shift of tasks, jobs, and competences to be acquired as well as a different way to care about customers and travellers. Another example is the airport, the check-in is less in person and more and more online. This has an effect on the workforce because it means less people work there. So, a lot of the tasks are shifted to the end consumer, but the workers are doing a different job.” WE-TRANSFORM leverages the effective collaboration of stakeholders in the mobility industry for in-depth dialogues to understand and respond to the challenges posed by automation on the transport labour force. “We exchange with the stakeholders to understand what the problem is: if and how automation has impacted their daily jobs. This means we have a clear vision about what are the effects and impacts of digitalisation and automation in the transport sector.” says Pronello. Using the outcomes of previously done research, such as main trends in the transportation sector, impacts on workers, and legal consequences, WE-TRANSFORM called stakeholders to share their views on the future of the workforce in mobility, with a focus on identification of encountered difficulties and required sources to overcome them. The stakeholders identified several drivers, namely: disaffection and dissatisfaction with their jobs; management skills not being up to date with the evolution of mobility; workers at lower levels often being more up to date with technological trends than their managers. Another important trend is the relocation of companies and offshoring, which has increased with automation. The last influencing factor is a lack of attention towards worker training, which is linked with the lack of finances that a company can provide for it. Who is most impacted are the workers and the end users, as automation will change the way that people work, and customer care will see a shift in how services are delivered and experienced. “There is also the risk that automation will leave the end user alone in a desert of machines, so this is the reason why in automation, customer care is so important.” Pronello cautions. When asked to consider what the future of mobility is, Pronello has a clear vision: “I expect a mix between hard and soft skills, where technology takes a secondary role to humanistic knowledge rather than being the primary focus of expertise. The ability of human beings to observe, listen and empathise with others will be a must-have. I also want to see a mobility trainer, a person who can teach other people how to travel in a sustainable way and educate people about the values related to sustainable mobility. In this case, the money that is devoted to the advancement of technology should be more used for training and educating people, because this is the only way to change people’s behaviour.” In the mobility setting, the driver of a now driverless vehicle could redirect their skills to support and facilitate the customer travel experience. “Those people can shift their focus on exchanging with other human beings, thus balancing the entrance of automated technologies with greater social interactions.” Pronello says. When asked about the implications for sustainability, Pronello adds these last thoughts: “The green transition cannot be achieved only through technology but through behaviours that utilise the full potential of these technologies. To truly drive the green transition, we must articulate why individuals and communities should embrace these technologies in a way that aligns with sustainability goals, rather than simply relying on technological advancements alone." 20338 0 0 Green Skills Transport and mobility Green transition EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1540 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2088 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 475 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Green Dream / Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Green Dream Sirkku Juhola Aug 30, 2022 This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'green dream' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments! Scenario dimensions Strong global governance; Sustainable lifestyles; Adverse to risk-taking; Vigorous activism Impacts and risk areas in 2040, global warming stays below 1.3C above pre-industrial levels and is expected to stabilised below 1.5C. While this is resulting in broadly moderate changes and risks in the existing climate, in some areas like coral reefs and glaciers impacts are severe. Hazards in Europe are mostly visible in key exposure areas, such as cities, and settlements in low-lying areas, affecting key infrastructure. Hazards include moderate sea level rise and increased heatwaves that affect human health and the agricultural sector. Climate risks assessments are regularly employed to assess how much adaptation is necessary. Demographics, economy and governance High levels of mitigation and adaptation are driven by the EU strategic shift towards sustainable energy autonomy, accelerated by the war in Ukraine in the early 2020s. Climate policy is also strongly driven by member states and regional authorities, particularly in higher-risk areas. Guidelines issued for European businesses, such as the EU Taxonomy and ESG investments have heavily influenced and steered businesses towards more sustainable practices for several decades. This has encouraged European climate business to grow and lead the global markets, supported by decades of joint research and development towards just transitions. The EU has been successful in leading global governance efforts in climate policy and major powers like the US and China have joined forces to push other lagging countries to strengthen the commitments. The countries have also ratified the Global Carbon Tax Agreement and the precautionary Pact for Common Geoengineering Mechanism. The former aims to alleviate past injustices by using proceeds for restorative climate and development measures globally. The latter provides the forum to discuss geoengineering approaches in an transparent way. All this is backed by international financial cooperation for mitigation and adaptation, ensuring also funds for developing countries. The EU celebrates its ten-year anniversary of banning investments in fossil fuel-based assets. Within the EU, the institutional redesign has drawn heavily on the principles of just transition and climate justice, building wide support for climate action. At the local level, citizen assemblies are a common way of engaging people. EU-wide Climate Barometer+, a deliberative policy tool which gauges European public opinion and is rarely ignored when decisions are made in terms of climate policy. It is employed Unionwide at regular intervals to gauge the public opinion and acceptability of climate policy. These include risk acceptance surveys of climate policy (strategy and implementation), and although the results are not legally binding, they nevertheless raise the level of compliance of policies across the Union. Acceptance of risk continues to be low, steering the options towards the “precautionary principle” and also screening out some climate solutions. Practices and technologies Official climate policies have taken up many initiatives of civil movements, among others flexible and or shorter work weeks, promotion of shared housing and plant-based diets. Furthermore, the focus on responsible research and innovation to ensure social acceptability of new practices and technologies have supported the rapid diffusion of prosumer schemes of urban farming and renewable energy micro-grids and mobility, for instance. Integrated systemic approaches building on synergies between adaptation and mitigation and sustainability more broadly have created green, liveable and walkable cities, and neighbourhoods. European public-private partnerships are ‘exporting’ this know-how, widely requested across the world with supported social innovations and mechanisms of deliberative democracy for informed decision-making regarding climate. The EU climate policy portfolio also includes some less risky geoengineering options. In accordance with the new Common Geoengineering Mechanism, the EU is championing international pilots on ocean alkalinization and de-desertification and directing significant investments in biochar, extensive peatland and wetland restoration across the EU and scaling up permaculture and agroforestry practices. Acceptability of new geoengineering options is gauged through deliberative tools before they are piloted. The social and environmental impacts of any new geoengineering are assessed based on the Directive for NBS (for mitigation, adaptation and carbon removal), which sets effective standards and mechanisms to prevent undesirable side-impacts. Lifestyles and activism In Europe, people have become highly aware of the climate crisis and, even if they feel personally less vulnerable to changes, they stay committed to climate action through demonstrations, boycotts and witnessing and watching, as well as influencing through consumer choice and shareholder activism. These social movements have jointly contributed to the general outlook and preferences in lifestyles that emphasise frugality and sustainability, translating into shifts towards more sustainable mobility, housing and working. 17549 0 3 Scenarios Climate change Just transition Sustainable living Global governance Geoengineering EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1540 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2088 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 475 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / FORESIGHT IN THE FIELD - The Mutual Learning Exercise / FORESIGHT IN THE FIELD - The Mutual Learning Exercise Emma Coroler May 4, 2023 Sharing lessons learned in foresight practices and experiences is important for the exchange for an impactful foresight community. The Mutual Learning Exercise can help foster community building and foresight capacities in different member states. Foresight studies, previously known as future studies or futures research, have a rich history dating back to the 1960s and 1970s. Over the years, these studies have expanded significantly in many countries, especially in the field of research and innovation (R&I). As we face rapid changes and uncertainty in today's world, there is a growing demand for policymakers to incorporate systematic foresight into their decision-making processes. By providing strategic intelligence and a long-term perspective, foresight can help governments better anticipate future opportunities and challenges. The OECD has emphasized the need for all governments to build greater anticipatory capacity and stresses the importance of institutionalizing the use of strategic foresight in R&I policy. Indeed, foresight has proven instrumental in informing the design and implementation of R&I policy through three distinctive roles linked to targeted impacts: corrective (addressing systemic failure and policy lock-ins), disruptive (focus on crisis and transition), creative (stimulating enabling conditions for new structures) The EU's response to ongoing crises and future challenges involves addressing this growing demand for strategic foresight. This includes efforts to create a European foresight community by connecting national institutionalized foresight. This strategy is notably being developed in the context of the European Commission-funded Mutual Learning Exercise (MLE) on research and innovation foresight (R&I foresight). The MLE aims to create a platform for the exchange of valuable information, experiences, and innovative practices in the field of research and innovation (R&I) foresight across EU and associated countries. By fostering collaboration between different groups, the MLE seeks to inspire the development of impactful R&I foresight communities as an important element of the European Research Area (ERA). The MLE is focussing on 5 topics that have led or will lead to the publication of thematic papers: Overview of R&I foresight. Institutionalising foresight capability creating wide foresight communities in the R&I system. Citizens’ engagement approaches and methods. Foresight, the twin transition, and potential disruptions. From foresight for Smart Specialisation to engagement in EU Research Programmes, Missions, and Partnerships. The first thematic paper examines the current state of foresight in the EU, including practices at the national level in both public and private sectors, success factors and challenge to future foresight practices. The second thematic paper , published in March 2023, delves deeper into the challenges and success factors for research and innovation (R&I) foresight. The paper explores how government foresight plays a role in various countries, the foresight community building process across Europe, and the main findings of a dedicated survey conducted as part of the Mutual Learning Exercise on foresight between October and November 2022. The first part highlights the diverse approaches and experiences of Member States and other advanced countries that have contributed to an expanding role for government foresight. The paper identifies parameters that significantly influence the extent to which foresight plays a role in government, such as the country's size and location, the maturity of policy context, the level of internationalization, and the success of institutionalizing foresight. In the second part, the focus shifts to the European level, highlighting opportunities to create a European foresight community, building on existing institutionalized foresight at the national level. It also discusses recent strategies put in place such as the EU-wide Foresight Network, EU Foresight-on-Demand, or the Foresight Europe Network of the Millennium Project. The final part of the paper covers the key findings of a dedicated survey conducted as part of the Mutual Learning Exercise on foresight between October and November 2022. These thematic papers as well as those still forthcoming share the goal of advancing the development of a community and enhancing the capacity of member states to take part in foresight and R&I policy planning through enhanced knowledge-sharing, cooperation, and active learning. This is an article from the Horizon Future Watch Newsletter (Issue 1, May 2023), presented by Foresight on Demand 18028 0 0 Mutual Learning Exercise EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1540 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2088 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 475 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Deep Dive: The emergence of global commons: A new opportunity for science, business, and governance > Deep Dive: The emergence of global commons: A new opportunity for science, business, and governance This deep dive is part of the Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe project . The concept of the global commons refers to resource domains that fall outside national jurisdiction, to which all have access, including high seas, airspace, outer space, and cyberspace. Given the growing significance of these domains and related resources for states and other global and local players across a range of purposes, defining the concept of the global commons has become more complex. The Global Commons Alliance network of concerned organisations refers to two definitions of the concept. The first is based on geopolitics, where the global commons are areas whose potential economic resources lie beyond national jurisdiction: the atmosphere, the high seas, Antarctica, and outer space. The second definition has its roots more in economics and how shared resources can be overused by some at the expense of others, regardless of national jurisdiction. The strategic access and use of resource domains for military/commercial purposes put pressure on their status. Recent geopolitical developments highlight the need for exploring appropriate forms of global governance or stewardship to ensure responsible (sustainable) management to benefit present and future generations. About this topic This deep dive aims to address the following questions: What constitutes a global commons? How do global commons differ? How is the concept of global commons likely to evolve up to 2040? Adapting a taxonomy of global commons for the emerging geopolitical, environmental, and economic context. What are the main emerging disruptors of global commons up to 2040? What could change and upset established global commons regimes? How can laws be introduced and implemented in emerging global commons? The emphasis is on geopolitics and how legal frameworks can survive technological change. How can innovation reinforce the commons? How is the economics of common property evolving (from Hardin's very influential work to the massive critique of Hardin by Elinor Ostrom)? linking to major policy debates such as privatisation. Can Ostrom’s approach be scaled up to the level of states? and extended to the common property of the atmosphere or oceans? What would be necessary for such a large-scale negotiation process? How can we govern the commons as a different type of ownership? The emergence of global commons-orientation in innovation ? In particular mission-oriented innovation. Exploring the rights and personality of ecosystems and other entities as right holders. Ecological services as transversal. How can we make the global commons work? - the need for cooperative behaviour if global commons and sustainability are to be achieved. Multilateralism 2.0. and emerging role of science diplomacy up to 2040. Ukraine war as an epochal war: the dangers of the war (state of permanent cold war) for acting seriously on the global commons. Potential split with China and new hegemonies in Africa (e.g Belt and Road debt). The aim is to identify cross impacts of the global commons areas and key drivers. 28249 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS OUTPUTS Deep Dive Global Commons_Final report.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren EU R&I policy Global Commons Deep Dive Scenarios MEET THE EXPERTS kerstin.cuhls Prof. Dr. View on LinkedIn Luk Van Langenhove View on LinkedIn Philine Warnke View on LinkedIn Susanne Giesecke View on LinkedIn Luke Georghiou View on LinkedIn cristianocagnin View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Project Launches Report on R&I Actors and Foresight Activities in Europe The European foresight community has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. The newly published Eye of Europe report "Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe" provides an assessment of just that, namely the actors, preferred methodologies, success factors and bottlenecks for effective R&I foresight projects, as well as trends for future R&I foresight projects in Europe. Simon Winter 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Emerging Practices in Foresight for Research & Innovation policy Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 An Interview with Eye of Europe's Project Coordinator Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2679 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 MEGATRENDS 2050. THE CHANGING WORLD: impacts in Portugal The digital brochure "Megatrends 2050, Changing World: Impacts on Portugal - a Brief Introduction" is now available. This is a publication by the Planning and Foresight Services Network of the Public Administration (RePLAN), as part of the activities carried out by the Multisectoral Foresight Team. RePLAN is chaired by the Public Administration Planning, Policy and Foresight Competence Center (PlanAPP), in which the FCT participates. Duration of the study: The project was launched in June 2023 and will be concluded with the launch of the final report in April 2025. The document, available on the PlanAPP website, is a brief introduction to the 2050 Megatrends Report for Portugal, to be published by the end of year 2024. It presents, in a brief and preliminary way, the nine megatrends that are likely to shape the future of our country, with a general description and a list of the most relevant potential impacts: Worsening climate change; Growing pressure on natural resources; Diversifying and changing economic models; Diverging demographic trends; A more urban world; A more digital world; Accelerating technological development; A multipolar world and New challenges to democracy. The identification and description of megatrends for Portugal is a work in progress, based on a collaborative, systematic and open process. During this year, with the aim of producing a report and supporting the formulation of public policies, this process will be deepened with workshops, expert consultation and citizen participation. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. Complete list of the partner institutions: Coordinator: Centro de Competências de Planeamento, de Políticas e de Prospetiva da Administração Pública (PlanAPP) Co-coordinators: Direção-Geral de Política de Defesa Nacional (DGPDN) Secretaria-Geral do Ambiente (SGA) · Contributors: · Instituto Nacional de Administração I. P. (INA) · Direção-Geral da Política de Justiça (DGPJ) · Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais (GPEARI) · Instituto Português do Desporto e Juventude, I.P. (IPDJ) · Comissão para a Cidadania e a Igualdade de Género (CIG) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) · Direção-Geral de Política do Mar (DGPM) · Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência (DGEEC) · Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) · LNEG - Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia e do Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana. I.P. (IHRU). · Instituto da defesa Nacional (IDN) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Planeamento (GEP) do Ministério do Trabalho, Solidariedade e Segurança Social (MTSSS) 5183 0 Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project. The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities: As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis. An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on the online platform www.futures4europe.eu. An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions. On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics: > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership > Global Commons > Transhumanist Revolutions Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments: > Social Confrontations > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities > The Future of Health A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days. Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy. This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. Partner organizations: Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) Institutul de Prospectiva (IP) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISINNOVA) Technopolis Group 4strat Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) Arctik Fraunhofer ISI About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 7050 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 8 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts NBA2King: This requires understanding market trends Blog September 4, 2024 1 0 0 What if there will be a return to multilateralism as a global governance principle? Blog June 16, 2022 5 0 0 What if knowledge, space, the sun, the sea, energy, oil, lithium, uranium, vaccines, microbes etc., became recognised as “global commons”? Blog June 16, 2022 8 0 0 What if there is “fair” access to resources (for countries, social groups) and younger generations can influence global governance? Blog June 16, 2022 4 0 0 1 2 1 ... 1 2 ... 2 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Deep Dive: Transhumanist Revolutions > Deep Dive: Transhumanist Revolutions The twelve scenarios in this deep dive are informed by transhumanism, portraying futures in which the human condition – our bodies, functions, and lives – and the features of societies are fundamentally transformed by technology. Even though scenarios are built along the lines of particular scientific and/or technological advancements, the discussion spreads over sociotechnical ensembles and the re-conceptualization of the relationship between technology and society by 2040. The work leading to this report started with a horizon scanning exercise to identify a series of technological innovations and scientific breakthroughs that may be considered key factors towards re-engineering human nature. In parallel, the authors explored diverse narratives regarding the human condition and significance in the world, dreams and fears embodied in the so-called collective imaginary, echoing through myths and fantasies to literature, cinematography and the wider culture. At the intersection of these explorations, twelve topics were selected and further expanded into scenarios. They are not intended to cover the full spectrum of themes regarding human enhancement, but present a relevant ‘sample’ of potential future trajectories. We propose these narratives as exploratory scenarios, describing futures where both positive and negative consequences are palpable. They are not normative, outlininga vision of the future deemed desirable. We invite readers to regard them as devices for imagining the future and debating the future. They aim to nurture a reflection on the dynamics of change, future opportunities and potential threats, and in doing so they contribute to future preparedness. Three types of scenarios were developed: The first type describe futures where scientific and technological advancements enhance embodied experiences : Sensory augmentation: extending human senses beyond the natural limits and adding sensorial modalities which are not native to humans. Sensory and brain stimulation, psychedelic microdosing: inducing altered states of consciousness, for healing purposes or for fostering new perspectives on being human. Molecular therapies for delaying aging; and new artificial reproductive technologies allowing people to be fertile until much older age. The second type explore futures where human capabilities are extended by embodying non-biological means : a significant share of elderly people using exoskeletons for prolonging active life, for maintaining their mobility or as a form of assisted living; brain-computer interfaces leveraged in semi-automatized work environments, to improve learning outcomes, and to control smart devices; Brain to brain communication supporting cognitive and emotion sharing, leading to the creation of ‘hive minds’ covering multiple aspects of life. The third type focus on the simulation and replication of the human body and mind : Digital body twins allowing alert signals for disease prevention and the simulation of the short- and long-term effects of a person’s behavior on their health and body; Digital twins of the brain allowing testing hypotheses in cognitive science, in mental health studies, responses to different types of treatments; Digital immersive worlds – gaming/ fantasy worlds or ‘mirror worlds’ that are replicating real-life environments – hosting interactions among people and automated entities; Digital replicas of the deceased changing the socio-political understanding of grief; and Artificial agents with complex underlying computational procedures (including e.g. self-reflection, development of value system, affective computing) and sophisticated interfaces calling for new theoretical frameworks of consciousness. *** The twelve scenarios presented in the paper are part of the Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe project , which was conducted by Foresight on Demand Consortium on behalf of the European Commission ’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD) . 26084 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS OUTPUTS Transhumanist revolutions deep dive.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren EU R&I policy Scenarios Deep Dive Horizon Scanning Transhumanism MEET THE EXPERTS Bianca Dragomir View on LinkedIn Radu Gheorghiu View on LinkedIn Aureli SORIA-FRISCH View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Project Launches Report on R&I Actors and Foresight Activities in Europe The European foresight community has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. The newly published Eye of Europe report "Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe" provides an assessment of just that, namely the actors, preferred methodologies, success factors and bottlenecks for effective R&I foresight projects, as well as trends for future R&I foresight projects in Europe. Simon Winter 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Emerging Practices in Foresight for Research & Innovation policy Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 An Interview with Eye of Europe's Project Coordinator Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2679 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 MEGATRENDS 2050. THE CHANGING WORLD: impacts in Portugal The digital brochure "Megatrends 2050, Changing World: Impacts on Portugal - a Brief Introduction" is now available. This is a publication by the Planning and Foresight Services Network of the Public Administration (RePLAN), as part of the activities carried out by the Multisectoral Foresight Team. RePLAN is chaired by the Public Administration Planning, Policy and Foresight Competence Center (PlanAPP), in which the FCT participates. Duration of the study: The project was launched in June 2023 and will be concluded with the launch of the final report in April 2025. The document, available on the PlanAPP website, is a brief introduction to the 2050 Megatrends Report for Portugal, to be published by the end of year 2024. It presents, in a brief and preliminary way, the nine megatrends that are likely to shape the future of our country, with a general description and a list of the most relevant potential impacts: Worsening climate change; Growing pressure on natural resources; Diversifying and changing economic models; Diverging demographic trends; A more urban world; A more digital world; Accelerating technological development; A multipolar world and New challenges to democracy. The identification and description of megatrends for Portugal is a work in progress, based on a collaborative, systematic and open process. During this year, with the aim of producing a report and supporting the formulation of public policies, this process will be deepened with workshops, expert consultation and citizen participation. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. Complete list of the partner institutions: Coordinator: Centro de Competências de Planeamento, de Políticas e de Prospetiva da Administração Pública (PlanAPP) Co-coordinators: Direção-Geral de Política de Defesa Nacional (DGPDN) Secretaria-Geral do Ambiente (SGA) · Contributors: · Instituto Nacional de Administração I. P. (INA) · Direção-Geral da Política de Justiça (DGPJ) · Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais (GPEARI) · Instituto Português do Desporto e Juventude, I.P. (IPDJ) · Comissão para a Cidadania e a Igualdade de Género (CIG) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) · Direção-Geral de Política do Mar (DGPM) · Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência (DGEEC) · Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) · LNEG - Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia e do Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana. I.P. (IHRU). · Instituto da defesa Nacional (IDN) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Planeamento (GEP) do Ministério do Trabalho, Solidariedade e Segurança Social (MTSSS) 5183 0 Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project. The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities: As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis. An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on the online platform www.futures4europe.eu. An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions. On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics: > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership > Global Commons > Transhumanist Revolutions Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments: > Social Confrontations > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities > The Future of Health A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days. Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy. This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. Partner organizations: Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) Institutul de Prospectiva (IP) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISINNOVA) Technopolis Group 4strat Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) Arctik Fraunhofer ISI About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 7050 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 8 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts Crazy experiment shows humans can learn to echolocate like bats Blog June 28, 2022 9 0 0 Scientists create living human skin for robots Blog June 20, 2022 9 0 0 What if we live long, in a world of “old” people in good shape and without diseases? Blog June 16, 2022 7 0 0 What if we get very diverse human-technology configurations? Blog June 16, 2022 3 0 0 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. 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THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results / Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results Iva Vancurova Sep 30, 2024 ​ The second Mutual Learning Event (MLE) took place online on September 26, 2024, as part of Eye of Europe , a Horizon Europe project which aims to enhance the integration of foresight practices into Research and Innovation (R&I) policy-making across Europe and to nurture a vibrant, cohesive R&I foresight community that contributes significantly, as a collective intelligence, to shaping and guiding policy decisions. The online MLE brought together fifty participants from diverse stakeholder groups: Eye of Europe partner organizations, the European Commission, R&I funding agencies, representatives of governmental bodies. The event, organized by Technology Centre Prague (TC), focused on the topic of policy oriented communication of foresight results . Group and plenary discussions in three interactive sessions were framed by expert presentations showcasing diverse practices in the application and communication of foresight. Presentations: Michal Pazour (TC Prague, Czech Republic ) introduced the Eye of Europe project and the context of this second Mutual Learning Event. Moderator of the event Lenka Hebáková (TC Prague, Czech Republic ) followed up with an introduction to the event’s aims and agenda. Mikko Dufva (SITRA, Finland ) – “Communicating foresight. From knowing it all to empowering change”. The presentation included three case studies: SITRA’s decade long experience with megatrends as a platform for dialogue, their work on weak signals as an invitation to broaden futures thinking in a “what if?” spirit and, finally, their efforts to empower others to define futures bottom-up, through small funding to diverse teams across Finland. “Communicating foresight in the European Commission” presented by Maia Knutti and Teodora Garbovan (EU Policy Lab, European Commission ) brought insights into how, in the European Commission context, foresight is employed and linked with the policy cycle. Examples covered foresight content (e.g. Strategic Foresight Reports) and engagement tools (e.g. megatrends hub, scenario exploration system) that are serving different stakeholder groups across multiple channels. Bianca Dragomir (Institutul de Prospectiva, Romania ) discussed a case study on embedding foresight into policy making in the context of developing the Strategy for Fishing and Aquaculture 2035 in Romania. Moreover, she shared about embedding foresight into both policy making and societal conversation, discussing two Foresight on Demand projects: Scenarios on “Transhumanist Revolutions” and foresight-meets-speculative-design project “Futures Garden”. Totti Könnölä (Insight Foresight Institute, Spain ) shared about the Foresight on Demand project "European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe" that advanced several objectives: generating foresight intelligence, i.e. through forward-looking policy briefs; monitoring of foresight activities and providing support for exploitation (Horizon Futures Watch); laying the building blocks for a European foresight community supported by an online platform. Marie Ségur (Futuribles, France ) presented a case study on “Future of social work in France to 2035-2050” and the methods employed throughout the process: using surveys to motivate engagement with futures thinking, scenario building that may inform strategic choices and guide towards a vision and, finally, communicating outcomes in a synthetic manner, that may contribute to a wider discussion around the topic. Eye of Europe project coordinator Radu Gheorghiu (UEFISCDI, Romania ) shared previews of the upcoming upgrade of the futures4europe.eu platform, with its new look and extended features. This event is the second in a series of five MLEs planned in the project; the following event will be held in January 2025 also in an online format. All Eye of Europe MLEs are organized by Technology Centre Prague (TC) , Eye of Europe partner and key Czech national think tank and academia based NGO with a rich experience with knowledge-based policy making support and (participatory as well as expert based) foresight activities. 2088 0 0 Foresight Mutual Learning Exercise EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1540 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2087 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 475 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Mutual Learning Exercise (MLE) on R&I Foresight > Mutual Learning Exercise (MLE) on R&I Foresight The purpose of the MLE is to facilitate the exchange of information, experiences and lessons learnt in the practice of R&I foresight across EU and Associated Countries, and to contribute to the development of an impactful R&I foresight community as an important element of ERA. It promotes improvements in R&I foresight across participating countries through identification and propagation of good practices in institutionalising foresight capability, in carrying out foresight projects and in using foresight for R&I policy purposes. The MLE also strengthens the European foresight community in R&I policy and the capacity of MS and AC to engage in foresight and R&I policy planning and to co-create future EU Research Framework Programmes. This MLE constitutes an opportunity to take stock of current or planned policies and good practices at Member State level and beyond and to share experience among policy-makers and national authorities on the use of foresight in the R&I domain as well as the potential of science and research to provide foresight for other policies. 31602 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/statistics/policy-support-facility/psf-challenge/mutual-learning-exercise-mle-ri-foresight OUTPUTS Institutionalising foresight capability&creating foresight communities in the R&I system.p ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren MLE_R&I Foresight_topics and scheduled meetings.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren MLE_R&I Foresight-An Introduction to the Current State of Play.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren EU R&I policy Mutual Learning Exercise MEET THE EXPERTS Futures4Europe Admin View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Project Launches Report on R&I Actors and Foresight Activities in Europe The European foresight community has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. The newly published Eye of Europe report "Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe" provides an assessment of just that, namely the actors, preferred methodologies, success factors and bottlenecks for effective R&I foresight projects, as well as trends for future R&I foresight projects in Europe. Simon Winter 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Emerging Practices in Foresight for Research & Innovation policy Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 An Interview with Eye of Europe's Project Coordinator Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2679 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 MEGATRENDS 2050. THE CHANGING WORLD: impacts in Portugal The digital brochure "Megatrends 2050, Changing World: Impacts on Portugal - a Brief Introduction" is now available. This is a publication by the Planning and Foresight Services Network of the Public Administration (RePLAN), as part of the activities carried out by the Multisectoral Foresight Team. RePLAN is chaired by the Public Administration Planning, Policy and Foresight Competence Center (PlanAPP), in which the FCT participates. Duration of the study: The project was launched in June 2023 and will be concluded with the launch of the final report in April 2025. The document, available on the PlanAPP website, is a brief introduction to the 2050 Megatrends Report for Portugal, to be published by the end of year 2024. It presents, in a brief and preliminary way, the nine megatrends that are likely to shape the future of our country, with a general description and a list of the most relevant potential impacts: Worsening climate change; Growing pressure on natural resources; Diversifying and changing economic models; Diverging demographic trends; A more urban world; A more digital world; Accelerating technological development; A multipolar world and New challenges to democracy. The identification and description of megatrends for Portugal is a work in progress, based on a collaborative, systematic and open process. During this year, with the aim of producing a report and supporting the formulation of public policies, this process will be deepened with workshops, expert consultation and citizen participation. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. Complete list of the partner institutions: Coordinator: Centro de Competências de Planeamento, de Políticas e de Prospetiva da Administração Pública (PlanAPP) Co-coordinators: Direção-Geral de Política de Defesa Nacional (DGPDN) Secretaria-Geral do Ambiente (SGA) · Contributors: · Instituto Nacional de Administração I. P. (INA) · Direção-Geral da Política de Justiça (DGPJ) · Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais (GPEARI) · Instituto Português do Desporto e Juventude, I.P. (IPDJ) · Comissão para a Cidadania e a Igualdade de Género (CIG) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) · Direção-Geral de Política do Mar (DGPM) · Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência (DGEEC) · Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) · LNEG - Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia e do Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana. I.P. (IHRU). · Instituto da defesa Nacional (IDN) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Planeamento (GEP) do Ministério do Trabalho, Solidariedade e Segurança Social (MTSSS) 5183 0 Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project. The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities: As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis. An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on the online platform www.futures4europe.eu. An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions. On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics: > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership > Global Commons > Transhumanist Revolutions Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments: > Social Confrontations > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities > The Future of Health A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days. Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy. This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. Partner organizations: Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) Institutul de Prospectiva (IP) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISINNOVA) Technopolis Group 4strat Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) Arctik Fraunhofer ISI About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 7050 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ... 7 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts NBA2King: This requires understanding market trends Blog September 4, 2024 1 0 0 MMOexp: Diablo 4 extends beyond its launch Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 2 0 0 MMOexp: FC 25 demands a decent processor Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 1 0 0 Slowly getting serious about solar geoengineering Blog February 21, 2023 29 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. 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COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Futures of interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities > Futures of interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities This project considers the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities, with new technologies and unregulated terrains offering new opportunities for new types of interpenetration. We explore the possibility of differentiating, regulating, and controlling criminal and legal activities and markets, the level of control technically feasible and socially and economically desirable, among other relevant issues. We analyse the following issues, among others: Is there a possibility of differentiating and controlling criminal and legal markets and economic activities? What level of control is technically feasible and (at the same time) socially and economically desirable? To some extent is it possible to establish the lawful origins of funds used in every transaction? The project is relevant for several reasons: Crimes have wide-ranging, major impacts on the economy, society and environment, when connected to lawful economic activities. Quite often these connections (“interpenetrations”) are not detected - or not reported for various reasons. Economic hardship and crises are likely to reinforce the incentives for committing criminal economic activities. New technologies might offer new opportunities for new or “refined” criminal economic activities. Economic criminals are often innovative and enter unregulated terrains (e.g., some commons, metaverse, etc.). Lack of resources and skills to fight economic crime is a major hurdle. The project is one of eight foresight deep dives of the project 'European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe ' carried out by the Foresight on Demand consortium. 29655 0 1 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://www.futures4europe.eu/projects/european-ri-foresight-and-public-engagement-for-horizon-europe OUTPUTS Havas et al_2023_Futures of the interpenetration of criminal and lawful-KI0523436ENN-1.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren Economic Crime Cybersecurity EU R&I policy Criminality Scenarios MEET THE EXPERTS Attila Havas View on LinkedIn Umut Turksen View on LinkedIn Marco Letizi Global Consultant View on LinkedIn Masafumi Nishi View on LinkedIn Holger NItsch View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 4: Future of Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities The interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities is a pressing concern for policymakers and law enforcement agencies (LEAs). This intricate issue was the topic of the workshop that took place on Wednesday, 11 October 2023, as part of the series of online workshops hosted by the Horizon Futures Watch activities. Emma Coroler 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg Luxembourg Strategy, the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks:1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbeing since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transitions since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finances since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html 7334 2 Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report 5955 0 Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2679 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ... 11 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up