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THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / S&T&I for 2050: deep-sea mining and ecosystem performance / S&T&I for 2050: deep-sea mining and ecosystem performance Susanna Bottaro Oct 6, 2022 There are an estimated billions of tonnes of strategic minerals such as nickel, cobalt and copper, lying on the ocean’s floor. Technological advance, financial viability, and regulatory frameworks are slowly aligning to permit deep-sea mining (DSM). While many rejoice in these developments, a variety of actors are calling for a moratorium on the nascent industry. Most notably, the European Commission released a Joint Communication stating that not enough knowledge about the risks of DSM is available and that more research is to be conducted to make DSM sustainable[i]. With deep-sea mining closer than ever to becoming a reality on the one hand, and calls for a moratorium on the other hand, it is important to discuss future directions of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) for a flourishing deep-sea ecosystem. The way in which we view the world and how we conceptualise nature shape our attitude towards it and the type of STI to be desired and pursued. The project “ S&T&I for 2050 ” provides a framework to imagine different sustainable futures depending on underlying values and human-nature relations. Three perspectives on ecosystem performance are described: “Protecting and restoring ecosystems”, concerned with preservation of ecosystems by managing the impact from human activities; “Co-shaping socio-ecological systems”, concerned with simultaneous development of social practices and ecological processes towards resilience and sustainability renewal; “Caring within hybrid collectives”, concerned with the establishment of caring relationships in new local collectives with humans and other entities on an equal footing. These three perspectives offer different views on notions of the deep sea and how and why we should promote its flourishing, and therefore delineate different views on deep-sea mining. The first perspective, i.e. protecting and restoring, views the deep sea as natural capital, a sphere that is separated from that of humans. The ecosystem is valued according to cost and benefit analysis (CBA), often based on ecosystem service. DSM would thus proceed when consistent with the findings of CBA and would need to limit as much as possible the effects on the environment. The second perspective, i.e. co-shaping, views the deep sea as a complex and unstable ecosystem that is co-shaped by both humans and non-human deep-sea entities. Ecosystems must flourish to allow for our long-term survival. Finding a governance system that is beneficial for all human and non-human entities part of the socio-ecological system is thus the proposed attitude towards assuring a healthy deep sea. The third perspective, i.e. immersing and caring, does not see a difference between humans and nature, thus also the deep sea. These two elements are one and the same, making humans deeply connected with a pluriverse of other beings. Caring for the deep sea and its health is not a choice, and deep-sea mining can only result from a negotiation between creatures to allow all to flourish on their own terms. Stemming from these perspectives on deep-sea performance, I sketched three 2050 scenarios on the future of deep-sea mining focused on ecosystem performance. P1 scenario: The masters of the deep sea Deep-sea mining is an established industry. A plethora of norms, tribunals and enforcement bodies assure that all contractors operating in national and international waters follow protocols and respect the boundaries and marine protected areas (MPAs). The deep sea has been carefully mapped via satellite imagery and all mineral deposits, before being approved for exploitation, have been studied in all their biological and chemical characteristics. Each operation in international water is to be approved behind closed doors by a board of experts selected by the International Seabed Authority (ISA), of which all countries are member. Meticulous risk assessments and environmental impact assessments are conducted to measure whether the extraction of minerals from a determined area makes economic sense against the loss of other ecosystem services. The “do no significant harm” principle (DNSH) is adopted as a default in deep-sea mining policymaking. The ISA also has the power to set caps to the quantity of minerals extracted each year depending on the indicators of stressors on the deep-sea ecosystem. It has happened in the past that restrictive caps resulted in fierce legal battles between investors and the ISA in a process alike that of the ISDS. Mining operations are required to adopt advanced technologies built on deep-sea robotics and AI to limit their impact in the extraction of minerals. When in 2032 a DSM operation caused a large-scale biodiversity loss that impacted numerous fisheries in the Pacific, controlling or eliminating the plumes of sediment became a priority of new technologies. Sensors are placed all throughout the deep sea to continuously monitor the temperature, the toxicity and water movements. P2 scenario: Embracing deep uncertainty Deep-sea mining has been practiced for 15 years now. The global moratorium put in place in 2025 allowed the international system to adapt and create a suitable regulatory framework to govern deep-sea mining effectively. Uncertainty in conducting mining operations in the deep sea was accepted and embedded in a highly responsive and adaptive governance structure. The International Seabed Authority (ISA) was joined by a multitude of organisations, such as the Deep Ocean Protection Authority (DOPA), the DSM States Consortium, and Atlantic Fisheries Agency (AFA), in order to assure as much as possible a governance of a global common in the name of resilience of the ecosystem. The precautionary principle is a prerogative for all decisions regarding deep-sea mining activities so that long term flourishing is possible. Feedback loops in this structure have allowed prevention of significant strains on the deep-sea ecosystem and quick interdisciplinary response to rebalance the ecosystem. For this aim, data from indicator species and sensors placed not only in the deep-sea, but also in shallow waters, on coastal land, and in the atmosphere is collected in a central and open-access database and analysed by personnel with the help of AI technologies. Socio-economic factors, such as the high demand of a specific mineral on the market, are also factored in to predict and manage changes in the extraction pace and protection activities. The ISA has remained the main organisation controlling deep-sea mining activities on the seabed beyond national jurisdiction and has undergone deep change in its internal norms allowing for a pervasive transparency and increased flexibility in its activities and regulations. While on the one hand this increased the resilience of the system, financial viability of DSM suffered also due to the volatility of the DSM metals market. In any case, technological developments on land, particularly recycling, and societal change towards circular economies have determined a diminishing need of raw materials, thus alleviating the push for deep sea extraction. Operations in the deep sea are conducted using biomimetic technologies developed by marine engineers in collaboration with biologists to be unintrusive to deep-sea fauna. P3 perspective: Deep-sea connections Deep-sea mining is now old memory. The fermentation around the industry died even before a commercial operation happened in international water. Although it seemed that an energy transition might have been impossible without DSM, the major improvements in recycling and the decoupling of the economy rendered the practice futile. All this was accompanied by a paradigmatic shift in our relationship with Nature. Past extractive industries are unthinkable now due to the enormous harm that they bring to Planet Earth as a whole. Oceans and the deep sea are as close to humans’ conscience and care as the soil on which they walk. Still, when new materials are needed, humans can dive to the deep sea and communicate with its inhabitants to determine together which polymetallic nodule or how much softer sulphide deposit can be harvested. This was enabled by technological breakthroughs in diving equipment and symbiotic robotics amongst others. Knowledge is pursued not with the aim to manage the deep sea but to enhance the whole ecosystem capacity to sustain thriving life and interspecies collaboration. Extensive scientific knowledge of the deep sea and its biogeochemical characteristics is complemented by both human and other creatures’ indigenous knowledge. Cobalt-rich crusts are not mined because the technology currently available would be too invasive and destructive. Nevertheless, as the water levigates the rock and particles of metals are dispersed in the water, some people filter out the water and collect these. The deep sea belongs to no one and every living creature simultaneously – its flourishing cannot be separated from that of all other creatures, including humans. These three scenarios offer a peek into how different views of the world might impact deep-sea mining and Science, Technology, and Innovation directions related to a sustainable deep-sea. There are plenty of questions that the scenarios create and leave unanswered and plenty of open points that will be decided upon in the next years. Many of them are related to STI, including governance innovations, and many others engage with the complex geopolitical arena surrounding deep-sea mining. Will we create technologies to source deep-sea minerals sustainably? How will sustainability be conceptualised for the deep sea? How will developments in AI, big data and robotics impact the deep-sea mining industry? Which governance structure could effectively control extraction of minerals from the deep-sea? Can deep-sea minerals ever be recovered without harming deep-sea life? How will the rising attention to global commons impact activities in the deep sea? Will the DSM international challenge strengthen multilateralism or further break it down? Will deep-sea minerals be part of green transitions? Will the European Union prioritise assuring strategic material flows over environmental protection, or will such a trade-off not be required? How will trade-offs between ecological harm and ecological benefits be addressed? How would commercial DSM impact global trade flows and how would power relations and geopolitical strategies change? What will be the social consequences on land mines areas? Which countries will be the losers and winners at the prospect of DSM? Will deep-sea mining become an environmental taboo, similarly to nuclear energy? What knowledge will the EU require to approve deep-sea mining? What is deep-sea mining and why are its minerals strategic? Deep-sea mining, defined as the extraction of minerals at depths beyond 200m, revolves around three types of deposit, each containing different metals in nature and quantity. Polymetallic nodules, small rocks at depths of 4000-6000m, contain mainly manganese, copper and nickel. Ferromanganese crusts, the top layer of some undersea mountains and ridges at depths of 800-2500m, contain mainly manganese, cobalt and nickel. Seafloor massive sulphides, deposits from hydrothermal vents activity at depths of 1000-3500m, contain mainly copper, gold and silver [i] . To give an idea of the deep-sea mineral quantities, it has been estimated that there are approximately 1 billion tonnes of cobalt on the ocean floor [ii] . Estimated terrestrial deposits amount to approximately 7.1 million tonnes [iii] . These estimations are not reflected in the work of other researchers (e.g., see image below) indicating considerable uncertainty and knowledges gaps. Other than the mentioned metals, the seabed hosts also sizeable quantities of rare earths (REEs) and lithium, further minerals that are highly relevant for the energy and technological industry. It is not thus a surprise that deep-sea mining proponents continuously highlight the positive impact that the extraction could have in reaching carbon neutrality through batteries and renewable energy infrastructure. Mineral deposits on the seabed. Source: Heffernan (2019) [iv] Most of the mineral deposits in the deep sea are placed beyond national jurisdiction. The International Seabed Authority (ISA) was created under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to manage these resources for the benefit of mankind. Currently, 168 countries are members of the ISA. [i] Sharma, R. (2022). Approach Towards Deep-Sea Mining: Current Status and Future Prospects. In: Sharma, R. (eds) Perspectives on Deep-Sea Mining. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-87982-2_2 [ii] https://www.isa.org.jm/files/documents/EN/Brochures/ENG9.pdf [iii] https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2021/mcs2021-cobalt.pdf [iv] Heffernan, O. (2019). Seabed mining is coming—Bringing mineral riches and fears of epic extinctions. Nature, 571 (7766), 465–468. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-02242-y [i] Joint Communication on the EU’s International Ocean Governance agenda: https://oceans-and-fisheries.ec.europa.eu/publications/setting-course-sustainable-blue-planet-joint-communication-eus-international-ocean-governance-agenda_en 21921 0 4 Deep-sea mining Scenarios Ecosystems EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1540 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2088 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 475 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > ESPAS Horizon Scanning > ESPAS Horizon Scanning The ongoing inter-institutional European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) Horizon Scanning activity since 2022 is led by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission and the European Parliamentary Research Services. An iterative methodology is rolled out at three successive levels, involving experts in a variety of policy areas and across several EU institutions. Firstly, at the outset, this exercise builds a wider EU community engaged in horizon scanning. Their task at a first level has involved looking for future developments that sit at the margins of current thinking and planning, the so-called ‘signs of new’. Secondly, sense-making workshops are organised on a monthly basis to consider through new lenses the identified ‘signs of new’ collected over the month and find links and interconnections among them across policies and sectors. The aim of these second-level workshops is thus to imagine possible impactful future developments, ‘signals of change’, using the collected signs as prompts. Thirdly, future impact workshops, conceived as exploratory and prioritisation workshops are organised after conducting a few sense-making workshops. These workshops also include the participation of officials across all ESPAS institutions and aim to prioritise the three potentially most impactful ‘signals of change’ from among those identified at an earlier stage. This careful process results in Horizon Scanning newsletters providing a broader perspective on policy making. Read the latest newsletters here: Horizon Scanning | ESPAS See also blog post describing the project and its role in EU : Spotting the Future: How Horizon Scanning can help shape EU Policy - European Commission (europa.eu) ESPAS Horizon Scanning feeds to other ESPAS projects. Read the Global Trends Reports published every five years. 8340 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://espas.eu/horizon.html OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Horizon Scanning MEET THE EXPERTS Maciej Krzysztofowicz View on LinkedIn Kathrine Jensen View on LinkedIn Maija Knutti Policy analyst View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 ORION: Meet Your Co-Pilot in Horizon Scanning Paulo Carvalho has been working in the field of futures and foresight for more than 25 years. On one hand, he is a professor in foresight, strategy and innovation at the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Lisbon. On the other hand, he founded a foresight company five years ago, IF Insight Foresight, focussing on consulting, horizon scanning and strategic intelligence, as well as other strategy and innovation projects. He talked to Futures4Europe about Insight Foresight’s recently developed tool ORION and how it could revolutionise foresight practices. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Addressing underlying assumptions: Tips and Tricks on Horizon Scanning The 'Horizon Scanning – Tips and Tricks.' publication provides an insightful step-by-step support on how to run an effective horizon scan - and how to address underlying biases while doing so. Emma Coroler 0 0 0 How Combining Participatory Democracy and Foresight Practices Can Foster Political Innovation A journey in participatory democracy through challenges (and opportunities) of future-thinking approaches. Giovanna Guiffrè & Valentina Malcotti 0 0 0 ‘Going rural’ - Managing Land Access (and Use) to support rural futures Renewing rural generations, via the provision of green jobs and accessible farming enterprises, has powered the EU-sponsored RURALIZATION project looking to promote synergies between agriculture policymakers and local rural communities in painting attractive rural futures. Giovanna Guiffrè & Valentina Malcotti 1 2 1 ... 1 2 ... 2 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects FUTURINNOV The FUTURINNOV project run by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches. This is done through activities to identify funding priorities, inform programme design, contribute to policy feedback, and develop institutional governance. The main objectives are to:• Provide short and medium-term future-oriented evidence-based advice on signals and trends of emerging technologies, breakthrough innovation, and investment patterns;• Support the development of long-term EIC strategic intelligence, grounded in anticipatory, collective, and hybrid methods, towards knowledge transfer and capacity building; and• Explore innovative anticipatory thinking and future-oriented methodologies to support EIC in its mission as a funding body and a knowledge- provider for policy design and implementation. The project started in the beginning of the 2024 and will run until February 2025. Outputs of the FUTURINNOV project will include three literature reviews identifying and analysing signals of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations as well as findings from horizon scanning workshops. Eyes on the Future: Volume 1 Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1 The report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making.The literature review(1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies,(2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report,(3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies(4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights(5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting. Read the reportRead some insights from the authors on the blog (Dis)Entangling the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics:quantum sensingquantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics modelsmaterials for quantumArtificial Intelligence for quantumerror correctionsolid-state scalabilityquantum for Artificial Intelligencequantum as a service – metacloudquantum computersFurthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility. Read the report 6453 0 Reimagining the Food System: scanning the horizon for emerging social innovations Food systems require urgent and profound transformation to become sustainable, both in Europe and worldwide. Social innovation plays a pivotal role in transforming today’s food systems into ones that are economically and socially feasible, and sustainable within planetary boundaries. The project Reimagining the Food System: scanning the horizon for emerging social innovations was conducted between July - December 2021, on behalf of the European Environment Agency. It engaged in a systemic examination of emerging social innovations across the food chain, conducted using horizon scanning, a tool to detect early signs of potentially important developments. Thus, it offers insights into the experimentation taking place in alternative ways to produce, trade and consume food. Project phases: The horizon-scanning combined web mining with a filtering and validation process, using machine learning and human evaluation. The exercise identified over 240 weak (or early) signals from a variety of news articles, blogs and grey literature published in English between 2017 and 2021. The signals were aggregated into 24 closely related subsets, with each cluster hinting at a potential emerging issue (see image); Next, 21 representatives from civil society organisations, business, academia and government discussed these issues at a sense-making workshop in September 2021; Following the workshop, 10 emerging issues were prioritised for characterisation. The characterisation was based on desk research and 11 semi-structured interviews with experts in the field. The 10 selected emerging issues include developments in new foods, products, services, and business and governance models. These issues have often been enabled by existing technologies and new forms of local partnerships, involving a variety of engaged stakeholders. They vary in their degree of maturity and novelty: some are relatively new developments, while others lend new perspectives to known subjects. Moreover, some provide new combinations of existing elements, while others are niche practices beginning to filter into the mainstream: 1. Agroecology: a way of producing food and living, a science and a movement for change 2. Soulful soil: alternative methods for nutrient and pest management 3. The power of many: community-supported agriculture networks and initiatives 4. Food-growing cities: urban farming, integrated food policies and citizen involvement 5. Muscle-up: alternative protein sources for human consumption 6. Knowledge is power: ensuring traceability and informing consumers 7. Reclaiming retail: (re)connecting farmers with consumers and businesses 8. Procurement strategies supporting sustainable agricultural and fishing practices 9. Menu for change: restaurants feed appetite for sustainability 10. The gift that keeps on giving: upcycled foods and food into energy The research team was composed of experts from the following organizations: ISINNOVA Institutul de Prospectiva Austrian Institute of Technology Insight Foresight Institute 5678 0 4Growth project - Understanding the Market to Forecast Future Growth 4Growth will showcase the uptake of digital technologies and data through the “4Growth Visualisation Platform” that will combine powerful storytelling with advanced visualisations of the market. This 3-year Horizon Europe project, funded by the European Commission, brings together 13 partners with the aim of understanding where, how and to what extent digital technologies and data are being adopted within the agricultural and forestry sectors. The project started in January 2024 and will end in December 2026. Consortium members: 1 Wageningen University & Research, Netherlands (Coordinator) 2 EVENFLOW, Belgium (Technical Managers) 3 GEOPONIKO PANEPISTIMION ATHINON, Greece 4 FOODSCALE HUB GREECE, Greece 5 LE EUROPE LIMITED, Ireland 6 FUTURE IMPACTS, Germany 7 SIMBIOTICA SL, Spain 8 EV ILVO: EIGEN VERMOGEN VAN HET INSTITUUT VOOR LANDBOUW- EN VISSERIJONDERZOEK, Belgium 9 INSTITUTO NAVARRO DE TECNOLOGIAS E INFRAESTRUCTURAS AGROALIMENTRIAS, Spain 10 CENTRE TECHNIQUE INTERPROFESSIONNEL DES FRUITS ET LEGUMES, France 11 TEKNOLOGIAN TUTKIMUSKESKUS VTT OY, Finland 12 AgriFood Lithuania DIH, Lithuania 13 ARISTOTELIO PANEPISTIMIO THESSALONIKIS, Greece 7695 0 ANTICIPINNOV: Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation (ANTICIPINNOV) project is a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) with the European Innovation Council (EIC) 2023-2024 to strengthen strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. Learn more about the project from its's three different branches. Everybody is looking into the Future! A literature review of reports on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, present leading challenges in policy-making nowadays. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks, emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policy-making and preparedness. The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation trends and signals produced by public and private entities outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support innovation funding prioritisation. Other insights were extracted, namely those related with the scope of the EIC Programme Manager portfolios. Read the report See the lessons learned from the blog post Scanning deep tech horizons: Participatory collection and assessment of signals and trends The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction. The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives. The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC. Read the report Learn more about the process from a blog post Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation: Methods and Best Practices In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers. Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape technological change. In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning.Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop. Read the report 10033 0 1 2 1 ... 1 2 ... 2 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Global Commons: Definitions, concepts and perspectives – Towards a Taxonomy / Global Commons: Definitions, concepts and perspectives – Towards a Taxonomy Jennifer Harper Sep 26, 2022 Global commons have been traditionally defined as those parts of the planet that fall outside national jurisdictions and to which all nations have access. International law identifies four global commons, namely the High Seas, the Atmosphere, the Antarctica and the Outer Space (1). These resource domains are guided by the principle of the common heritage of mankind. Resources of interest or value to the welfare of the community of nations – such as tropical rain forests and biodiversity - have lately been included among the traditional set of global commons as well, while some define the global commons even more broadly, including science, education, information and peace. To incorporate the potential for overuse by some at the expense of others, they can also include the atmosphere, land, ocean, ice sheets, a stable climate and biodiversity (2). According to the Global Commons Alliance, there are currently two definitions of the global commons: One is based in geopolitics. In this definition the global commons are areas – and their potential economic resources – that lie beyond national jurisdiction: the atmosphere, the high seas, Antarctica and outer space. The second definition has its roots more in economics than geopolitics and relates to how shared resources can be overused by some at the expense of others, regardless of national jurisdiction. One of the main characteristics of global commons is that they have a value for humankind and the planet. In some cases they even play a crucial role in the survival of our species. More recently, cyberspace has also been regarded as meeting the definition of a global common. (Luk van Langenhove) The global commons, comprising the areas and resources beyond the sovereigny of any state, build upon the heritage of Grotius’s idea of mare liberum – an idea that aimed to preserve the freedom of access for the benefit of all (3). However, the old mare liberum idea digressed into ‘first come, first served’ advantages for industrialised countries. Especially at the initiative of developing countries, it has now been replaced by a new law of international cooperation and protection of natural wealth and resources beyond the limits of national jurisdiction. According to Vogler, global commons can be considered as “social constructs that overlay, interpret and allocate ‘brute’ physical facts such as the gravitational forces in space, marine organisms, or deep seabed features that exist independently of our observation (Searle, 1995). The designation of areas and resources as global commons is evidently related both to technological change and scarcity, and both have combined to shape current definitions of the commons problem. ….the list of candidates for global commons status continues to grow. Cyberspace or the ‘digital ecosystem’, intellectual property and crop genetic resources are all so described with attendant implications for governance and security. The defining characteristic of commons relates to the question of access. One shared characteristic of the global commons is their close association with scientific discovery and developing technological capability (mare liberum 1609, Antarctica 1958, outer space from 1957). There has been substantial recent interest in the global commons amongst the military and strategic studies communities (Jasper, 2010). Their paramount concern is, as ever, the maintenance of access to strategically significant parts of the global commons. Access is also at the heart of environmental framing of the commons, but here it is the consequences of an open access regime and associated tragedies of resource degradation, depletion or destruction that are usually highlighted. Towards a Taxonomy of Commons Drawing on the work of Susan Buck (4), this paper outlines a draft taxonomy of commons, distinguishing between local, international and global commons as well as common pool resources. ​ Physical Virtual Notes Local Commons Not exclusionary Traditional commons concept covering pasture, forests, rivers, rights of way, fishing , lakes, etc ​ ​ ​ International Commons Exclusionary Resource domains shared by more than one nation, such as agreed regimes for spaces bordering states e.g. estuaries, the Mediterranean Sea and Baltic Sea. Cyberspace – the network of information systems across which information is transmitted, shared and stored. Cyberspace depends on a range of physical assets that make up the internet, or satellite-based communications, or satellite networks for global positioning. These are all under the direct physical control of states and large corporations, and can readily be controlled (or terminated) by them. Berners Lee and others campaign for it to be recognized as a public good Global Commons Not exclusionary Resource domains to which all nations have legal right of access. 4 are UN recognized: Atmosphere, Outer space; Antarctica; High Seas They refer to human-made but widely accessible resources. S&T Knowledge (published) – the open science and open data movements aim to remove economic barriers to access but in principle published knowledge is a common resource. Large amounts of scientific knowledge are privately appropriated for their economic or strategic value. The geophysical commons can also to some extent be regulated - the oceans are subject to the Law of the Sea Treaty of 1982 (which established substantial Exclusive Economic Zones for countries), the stratosphere has been regulated, for example, by the Montreal Protocol. Common pool resources Not exclusionary Subtractable economically relevant resources managed under a property regime in which a legally defined user pool cannot be efficiently excluded from the resource domain and resources are shared among them. ​ ​ According to Susan Buck, commons are resource domains in which common pool resources are found. “Common pool resources are subtractable resources managed under a property regime in which a legally defined user pool cannot be efficiently excluded from the resource domain. International commons or global commons are very large resource domains that do not fall within the jurisdiction of any one country. International commons are resource domains shared by several nations, such as the Mediterranean Sea and Antarctica (although recent United Nations environmental treaties have affected the Antarctic regime so that it has some of the characteristics of a global commons). Global commons are resource domains to which all nations have legal access, such as outer space. The distinction between the two is important, especially because international commons are exclusionary while global commons are not. “ (Buck) References: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/untaskteam_undf/thinkpieces/24_thinkpiece_global_governance.pdf https://post.parliament.uk/environmental-stewardship-of-the-global-commons/ https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01436597.2016.1154441 Distinguishing between global commons, common pool resources and public goods https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781315086415/global-commons-susan-buck 22218 0 0 Global Commons EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1540 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2088 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 475 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / The interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities: scenarios & policy implications / The interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities: scenarios & policy implications Attila Havas Nov 30, 2023 A recent policy brief, ‘Futures of the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities in the European Union in 2035: Scenarios and policy Implications’, explores the regulatory, economic, and technological opportunities and ‘incentives’ for various types of criminal actors to penetrate the legal economy and derives policy implications for the EU and its member states. The four freedoms of the EU Single Market – free movement of goods, services, people, and capital – are invaluable for EU citizens and businesses. These freedoms, however, are also abused by criminal actors, significantly undermining citizens’ quality of life and the lawful businesses’ competitiveness. Further, with the advancement of technologies, citizens and businesses can benefit from new opportunities but they are also confronted with a series of problems, such as insufficient consumer protection, distorted competition, lack of environmental risk assessment or abuse of technologies. The penetration of legal economic activities by criminal actors is a far-reaching, costly abuse, which exploits new technologies developed by themselves or by lawful actors. Clearly, potential victims need to be aware of threats and make their best efforts to protect themselves. Yet self-protection alone is not enough against mighty organised criminal groups. The state needs to apply its tools – especially effective regulations and well-endowed, well-organised law enforcement agencies (LEAs) – to prevent, monitor, and fight the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities. The state also needs to protect itself against corruption, tax evasion, smuggling, human and migrant trafficking, counterfeit of goods and means of payment, etc. Policy-makers – working on various domains, notably regulations, home affairs, security, science, technology, and innovation (STI) policies –, therefore, need to pay close attention to possible new ways and methods for the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities. With a deep dive report our aim has been to assist these policy-makers by presenting four possible futures (scenarios) on the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities and considering their implications. The underlying assumption of these scenarios is that the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities – just as most other types of crime – cannot be fully eradicated. There are two competing groups of actors whose capacities, activities, efficacy, and efficiency largely determine the possibilities for, and repercussions of, the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities: criminal actors and LEAs. The scenarios, therefore, are shaped by two main dimensions: i) whether LEAs are well-resourced, strong, and effective or not, and ii) whether large criminal organisations or small-scale ones are the dominant criminal actors. Hence, the four scenarios consider various types of ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors that influence actors to commit – or not – criminal economic activities; the main types of these activities; features of regulations; research, technological development, and innovation activities by the criminal actors vs LEAs; as well as the activities, capabilities, and resources of LEAs. Scenario 1 depicts a ‘Neck and neck race’ between large criminal groups and LEAs. The EU’s economy is flourishing, it is characterised by high growth, coupled with high taxes. Due to considerable public revenues, LEAs are strong: they have sufficient resources, as well as the necessary skills, capabilities, and capacities to prevent, monitor, and fight the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities. Lawful economic actors and other potential victims are protected by effective regulations that also support LEAs. While illicit actors have an almost negligible influence on regulatory processes, they nevertheless try hard to influence regulations for their interests – occasionally with some success. Large, well-organised criminal organisations have strong incentives to engage in criminal economic activities via penetrating lawful economic activities. They have massive funds already invested in the EU – in the black, grey, and white segments of the economy. They avoid paying high taxes and launder their sizeable illegal proceeds. Furthermore, they use their substantial resources to develop new technological tools and ‘business models’ to further penetrate their criminal activities into the lawful economy. Scenario 2 describes the EU as a ‘Safe haven for legal actors’ . Large criminal organisations have kept a minimal presence in the EU as they found ample, more profitable opportunities in other regions, where LEAs are weaker, and regulation is ineffective. Stringent and effective regulation in the EU is a further disincentive for them. Some of them operate from ‘criminals’ shelters’ outside the EU and target victims online or commit online crimes mainly outside the EU but to some extent also in the EU. Small-scale criminal organisations do not possess the skills, contacts, and resources to internationalise, and thus they remain in the EU, in search of ways to penetrate lawful economic activities. LEAs are endowed with the necessary resources, skills, capacities, and capabilities to be strong in the EU and they are also supported by effective regulation. Small-scale criminal organisations are unable to influence the regulatory processes. Thus, the EU provides a safe haven for legal actors. In Scenario 3 lawful economic actors rely on a number of ‘Protected pockets’ . Large criminal groups focus their activities outside the EU where they can exploit more profitable opportunities to commit economic crimes. Small-scale criminal organisations take advantage of the low intensity of the large criminal organisations’ activities, as well as the lucrative opportunities for criminal economic activities offered by regulatory loopholes. In particular, new technologies, as well as disruptive business models are exploited by criminals as there are no effective regulations ensuring robust cybersecurity, safety, and health standards. Lawful economic actors try to find protected pockets for their business in those domains where regulation still works. It is a somewhat ‘unstable’ scenario as lawful economic actors would push for more effective protection, and thus stronger LEAs, supported by effective regulation. Scenario 4 describes a ‘Paradise for criminals’ . The economy is flourishing, and thus provides ample opportunities for large, well-organised criminal organisations to conduct profitable business activities in the white, grey, and black segments of the economy. These illicit actors successfully influence the regulatory processes to advance their interests by creating loopholes. They can also afford to fund the development of new technological tools and ‘business models’ to penetrate the lawful economy even more deeply in their criminal ways. Although LEAs are also well-funded thanks to public revenues, they are substantially weakened by ineffective regulations. Lawful economic actors and other potential victims are not protected by effective regulations. Hence, LEAs are faced with even more demanding tasks, and thus their efficacy in fighting economic crimes is reduced. By considering the nature of the criminal activities that aim at penetrating lawful economic activities, and the options to prevent, monitor, and fight these crimes, the report explores a range of policy implications, especially for STI policies and regulations. Further, it stresses the multi-level nature of policy-making in the EU, as well as the need for collaboration with the willing countries outside the EU. Criminal actors can penetrate lawful economic activities in the EU when commissioned by hostile (‘rogue’) states that aim to weaken and/or undermine the EU and its Member States as part of their geopolitical power games. The policy brief reflects possible implications for research and innovation as well as for the governance in the EU, particularly in the following areas: Monitoring and foresight capabilities of LEAs in the EU and its Member States in cooperation with third countries. Technological tools by the EU and its Member States in cooperation with third countries for anticipating, preventing, monitoring, and fighting harmful criminal economic activities identified in the four scenarios. Joint social science research projects in the EU and its member states in cooperation with third countries to understand economic and behavioural incentives for crime and develop regulation against it. Framework conditions for effective governance and law enforcement in the EU and its member states in cooperation with third countries. The cooperation in the EU and with third countries for more effective monitoring and assessment of criminal and lawful activities and law enforcement. The full brief is available at: https://www.futures4europe.eu/projects/futures-of-interpenetration-of-criminal-and-lawful-economic-activities 7977 0 0 Criminal & Lawful Activities EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1540 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2088 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 475 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Shaping the Future of AI in Policing: ALIGNER's Pragmatic Approach / Shaping the Future of AI in Policing: ALIGNER's Pragmatic Approach Laura Galante Jul 11, 2023 ALIGNER aspires to rally European stakeholders anxious about AI's role in law enforcement. The project's goal is to create a unified front to identify strategies that will not only bolster the strength of law enforcement agencies through AI but also ensure public benefit. But how far into the future is it useful to look? ALIGNER aspires to rally European stakeholders anxious about AI's role in law enforcement. The project's goal is to create a unified front to identify strategies that will not only bolster the strength of law enforcement agencies through AI but also ensure public benefit. But how far into the future is it useful to look? In a world where technological advancement is swift and relentless, the EU-funded security research project ALIGNER focusses on the integration and implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in law enforcement, looking at a more immediate, shorter-term time frame. Project Coordinator Daniel Lückerath is pragmatic: “The rapid developments in AI technologies and their increasing public availability, as well as permeation throughout many aspects of society – from your fridge to your smartphone – make reliable foresight very far ahead almost impossible”. Hence, ALIGNER bases its strategies on the imminent needs, challenges, and opportunities that law enforcement confronts, considering both the potential misuse of AI and also its constructive use by police and law enforcement in societal contexts. ALIGNER focuses on a not-too-distant "future scenario" where AI is an integral part of daily life, and plays a pivotal role in policing and law enforcement. This approach, enriched by input from advisory boards and research collaborations, has earmarked significant areas where AI's potential criminal usage might be prominent. These areas include disinformation and social manipulation, cybercrimes against individuals and organisations, and the application in vehicles, robots, and drones. ALIGNER has identified sectors where AI could revolutionise policymaking and law enforcement practices. Promising applications include data handling processes, such as incident and crime reporting, digital forensics for obtaining digital evidence, improving incident reaction and response mechanisms, crime detection, and the use of AI in vehicles, robots, and drones. Based on these identified sectors, ALIGNER works along four distinct "narratives" or topical scenarios, intertwining different aspects across these highlighted categories, giving guidance to the related work in the project. “For each ‘narrative’ that ALIGNER works on, we identify suitable AI technologies.” Lückerath explains. “These are briefly described in so-called scenario cards that summarise the relevant information – what the technology is about, how effective it is, and how robust.” The narratives as discussed thus far have revolved around disinformation and social manipulation, cybercrime against individuals using chatbots, and one on AI-enabled malware, with the fourth one currently being in discussion within the project team. Based on these topical scenarios, assessment methods for the technical, organisational, as well as ethical and legal implications were developed. As an example, the first ‘narrative’, dealing with disinformation and social manipulation, assumes that criminals use AI for phishing attacks to gather personal data. Through phishing attempts, they identify and attack high-value targets (‘tailored phishing or spear phishing’). The goal of these attacks is to manipulate or coerce targets to gain unauthorised access to computer networks, e.g., of election campaigns, large research companies, or industry organizations. Phishing attacks may involve online attempts to persuade or trick individuals into divulging passwords or access codes or, if the opportunity arises, using harvested data to subject them to blackmail or coercive threats. Besides targeted phishing attacks and data harvesting, criminals may disseminate selective misinformation and disinformation apparently emanating from official or well-informed sources. Disinformation uses artificially generated videos, images, text, and sound, including deep fakes of public figures, and is generated by AI-fuelled ‘bots’. To counter the threat of phishing[KN(2] , law enforcement agencies also bring AI: They use veracity assessment methods to detect disinformation, then employ deanonymisation techniques like authorship attribution and the geolocation of images to identify from where the disinformation originated. This is supported by techniques for the detection of synthetic images and videos. In the second ‘narrative’, a crypto romance scam, a criminal contacts a victim via an online chat, grooming the victim into believing the scammer is a genuine ‘friend’ and subsequently extracting crypto currency out of the victim. These scams might be supported by generative AI models like ChatGPT, Dall-e, or Midjourney, creating fake profile pictures, voices, and videos, or automating text generation in multiple languages. In the future, the creation of profiles, targeting of individuals, generation of fake crypto currency company sites, and grooming might even become highly automated. To address these threats, law enforcement agencies themselves need to deploy AI-based models to detect generative content, to support automatic detection of scammer profiles as well as scamming victims, to detect voice clones, or to detect crypto currency laundering. ALIGNER collaborates with professionals from policing, academia, research, industry, and policymaking, including legal and ethics experts, organised in two advisory boards: one for law enforcement expertise, and the other gathering research, industry, and ethics authorities. “To receive a reliable assessment, we need many different experts from different European countries to ensure that we reflect a broad view on these emerging technologies and scenarios. This takes time, especially considering different languages and expertise” Lückerath says. While AI can be misused by criminals, it also greatly aids law enforcement in combating crime, such as by reducing errors, automating time consuming tasks, identifying potentially suspicious behaviours, and even speeding up legal procedures by predicting possible outcomes based on past cases. However, care must be exercised to avoid AI creating biases and discrimination, as certain geographic areas or groups might be unfairly targeted, leading to a disproportionate increase in arrests. This is why ALIGNER has developed the Aligner Fundamental Rights Impact Assessment (AFRIA) tool to enable law enforcement authorities to further enhance their already existing legal and ethical governance systems. This is a method designed to help law enforcement follow ethical guidelines and respect basic rights when using AI systems in their work. It consists of a fundamental rights impact assessment template and an AI System Governance template that help authorities identify, explain, and record possible measures to mitigate any potential negative impact the AI system may have on ethical principles. While in the EU there is no legal obligation to perform such assessments, the AFRIA complements already existing or potential legal and ethical governance systems, such as the forthcoming 2021 AI Act proposed by the European Commission. Depending on the results of negotiations during trialogues, Lückerath explains, “ALIGNER would like to see a practicable and sensible AI regulation that…enables law enforcement agencies to use AI in an ethical, legal, and socially acceptable way, and still allows us to make use of AI technologies for the betterment of society.” Lückerath envisions a future in which established national centres across Europe support law enforcement agencies with ethical, legal, and socially acceptable implementation and deployment of AI technologies, as well as oversight bodies that would use a harmonised framework to assess AI technologies before, during, and after their deployment. In this envisaged future, a harmonious blend of technology and ethics may very well redefine the contours of law enforcement, empowering agencies with the tools of AI while maintaining steadfast commitment to ethical and legal standards. 17321 1 0 Criminal & Lawful Activities Security EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login anhtuanhoang5 July 26, 2023 at 11:10:46 AM Edit Delete top 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1540 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2088 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 475 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > How will we disgust our descendants? > How will we disgust our descendants? It would be short-sighted to assume that we, as humanity, have reached such a level of maturity that our descendants will not find some aspects of our – apparently civilised – everyday life repulsive and sad. So we asked 60 futurists from around the world: “What will we disgust our descendants with? ” Many of the submitted ideas are already present in public discourse and confirm areas in which we need to change. But we were especially interested in novel barbarisms that humanity is still largely oblivious to . The resulting infographic shows the futurists’ answers grouped into 93 contemporary barbarisms ranked in a public vote according to how eye-opening they are. 14343 0 2 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://4cf.eu/how-will-we-disgust-our-descendants/ OUTPUTS Report_How will we disgust our descendants.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren Ethics Fairness MEET THE EXPERTS Norbert Kołos View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 With Big Tech comes Big (Ethical) Responsibility In a world pervaded by the rapid entrance and development of new technologies, the pace at which ethical concerns are addressed is not always in sync. TechEthos, a Horizon 2020 project, wants to facili-tate “ethics-by-design” in order to push forward ethical and societal values into the design and develop-ment of new and emerging technologies at the very beginning of the process. Laura Galante 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Rapid Exploration: Rising Social Confrontations And Their Implications For Transitions > Rapid Exploration: Rising Social Confrontations And Their Implications For Transitions This rapid exploration is part of the Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe project . Different social groups have linked their ambitions and beliefs – from various emancipatory goals to the “great reset” – to this movement and re-interpreted it in line with their world views. Consequently, the tone in the echo chambers of social media is getting rougher, and nobody can tell what a subjective opinion is or what is reliable information. Rational political discourse is getting increasingly difficult. Polarisation is growing along many conflict lines. When politically incorrect words are used, people are immediately put in a particular political corner, even if they only want to point out real problems. The art of finding political compromises is reaching its limits, and there is growing and even violent opposition against democracy. About this topic DRIVERS AND BARRIERS One enabling driver of this development is undoubtedly the pervasive embedding of digital devices in our environment and the omnipresence of social media. Algorithms help to create false and fake news. There is a lack of reliability of news, and even trust in science is declining, not to speak of governments. However, there are more substantive controversies underlying these developments: people and stakeholders feel that only some voices are heard in policy debates, based on elite favouritism rather than the quality of arguments; the gap between elites and marginalised groups is widening; critical opinions get suppressed. This is coupled with increasing inequalities resulting in social divide and mistrust. (Multinational) companies make use of the widespread sense of uncertainty and further polarise public opinion for the sake of marketing. Increasing inequality, marginalisation and political polarisation (right/left/green/brown) have led populists and extremist groups to undermine the green transition movements. These political partisan groups try to benefit from the visibility of the transition agenda to spread their fake news and beliefs. The political elite is disconnected from the people, resulting in mistrust, polemics, and taunts for many people. Consequently, people reconnect in smaller groups in real life and form ‘tribes’ in their respective echo chambers in virtual space, sharing and confirming their distinctive world views and value settings FUTURES Proactive responses to social inequalities in the EU What if social inequalities in all places are starting to be tackled because they endanger society as a whole? What if social tensions give rise to a deep institutional change? What if citizens find alternative ways of self-governance which work? What if social tensions lead to a responsibility rise in some groups? What if society self-organises into diverse groups (possibly including also communities of researchers based in the same location?) Further strengthening of social inequalities in the EU What if there are institutional mechanisms at work that would translate inequalities into a real risk for the union? What if disbelief, distrust and ignorance accelerate the erosion of public institutions? What if a government becomes inactive because of social confrontations (e.g. no more fight against climate change)? What if trust in government is lost as policies are perceived as unfair? What if social confrontation leads to violent societies where the government cannot regulate violence (e.g. riots, civil war) anymore? What if the public engagement of citizens stops? Regarding the role of science What if science is not regarded as an essential EU policy affair any longer? What if science and research are privatised? What if EU S&T policy turns into an affair for corporate elites only; an affair that does not care about inequalities? What if scientific movements spearhead the fight for a more cohesive and equal society)? 28567 0 1 EXTERNAL LINKS OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren EU R&I policy Social confrontations MEET THE EXPERTS Futures4Europe Admin View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Project Launches Report on R&I Actors and Foresight Activities in Europe The European foresight community has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. The newly published Eye of Europe report "Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe" provides an assessment of just that, namely the actors, preferred methodologies, success factors and bottlenecks for effective R&I foresight projects, as well as trends for future R&I foresight projects in Europe. Simon Winter 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Emerging Practices in Foresight for Research & Innovation policy Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 An Interview with Eye of Europe's Project Coordinator Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2679 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 MEGATRENDS 2050. THE CHANGING WORLD: impacts in Portugal The digital brochure "Megatrends 2050, Changing World: Impacts on Portugal - a Brief Introduction" is now available. This is a publication by the Planning and Foresight Services Network of the Public Administration (RePLAN), as part of the activities carried out by the Multisectoral Foresight Team. RePLAN is chaired by the Public Administration Planning, Policy and Foresight Competence Center (PlanAPP), in which the FCT participates. Duration of the study: The project was launched in June 2023 and will be concluded with the launch of the final report in April 2025. The document, available on the PlanAPP website, is a brief introduction to the 2050 Megatrends Report for Portugal, to be published by the end of year 2024. It presents, in a brief and preliminary way, the nine megatrends that are likely to shape the future of our country, with a general description and a list of the most relevant potential impacts: Worsening climate change; Growing pressure on natural resources; Diversifying and changing economic models; Diverging demographic trends; A more urban world; A more digital world; Accelerating technological development; A multipolar world and New challenges to democracy. The identification and description of megatrends for Portugal is a work in progress, based on a collaborative, systematic and open process. During this year, with the aim of producing a report and supporting the formulation of public policies, this process will be deepened with workshops, expert consultation and citizen participation. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. Complete list of the partner institutions: Coordinator: Centro de Competências de Planeamento, de Políticas e de Prospetiva da Administração Pública (PlanAPP) Co-coordinators: Direção-Geral de Política de Defesa Nacional (DGPDN) Secretaria-Geral do Ambiente (SGA) · Contributors: · Instituto Nacional de Administração I. P. (INA) · Direção-Geral da Política de Justiça (DGPJ) · Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais (GPEARI) · Instituto Português do Desporto e Juventude, I.P. (IPDJ) · Comissão para a Cidadania e a Igualdade de Género (CIG) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) · Direção-Geral de Política do Mar (DGPM) · Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência (DGEEC) · Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) · LNEG - Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia e do Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana. I.P. (IHRU). · Instituto da defesa Nacional (IDN) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Planeamento (GEP) do Ministério do Trabalho, Solidariedade e Segurança Social (MTSSS) 5183 0 Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project. The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities: As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis. An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on the online platform www.futures4europe.eu. An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions. On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics: > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership > Global Commons > Transhumanist Revolutions Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments: > Social Confrontations > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities > The Future of Health A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days. Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy. This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. Partner organizations: Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) Institutul de Prospectiva (IP) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISINNOVA) Technopolis Group 4strat Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) Arctik Fraunhofer ISI About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 7050 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ... 7 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts NBA2King: This requires understanding market trends Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 1 0 0 MMOexp: Diablo 4 extends beyond its launch Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 2 0 0 MMOexp: FC 25 demands a decent processor Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 1 0 0 Slowly getting serious about solar geoengineering Blog February 21, 2023 29 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. 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COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Teach the Future > Teach the Future Teach the Future is a global non-profit movement that promotes ‘futures literacy’ as a life skill for students and educators. In a rapidly evolving world it is essential to learn how to deal with uncertain and ever-changing futures. Let’s prepare our next generations with these skills in the classroom! Our aspiration is that every student is prepared to navigate an uncertain world and has the agency to imagine and create their preferred future. Our mission is to teach futures-thinking skills to students and educators around the world and to inspire them to influence their futures. The impact we want to achieve for generations to come: Stimulate futures consciousness Activate different ways of thinking (critically and creatively) Teach the ability to navigate and influence change in the face of uncertainty and complexity Engage in better decision-making Create more active citizens Spark more empathy, particularly for future generations, in solving societal issues 27678 0 5 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://www.teachthefuture.org/ OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Education MEET THE EXPERTS Futures4Europe Admin View on LinkedIn PETER BISHOP View on LinkedIn Lourdes Rodriguez Senior Trends Consultant. Strategic Foresight View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Futureproofing Public Health Systems by Teaching Foresight Future thinking capacity-building initiatives like PHIRI (https://www.phiri.eu/) invite policymakers to lend their ears to extreme and value-driven scenarios in post-pandemic population health. Giovanna Guiffrè & Valentina Malcotti 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Strategic Foresight for Sustainability (SF4S) SF4S is a collaborative action with partners from Higher Education institutions (HEIs), Vocational Education and Training (VET) providers, innovation networks and business entities from the Agri-food, Health and the Mobility sectors. Carried out between July 2022 - June 2025, SF4S supports our transition to a more sustainable European economy by helping to address the lack of green, digital and future (i.e. sustainability foresight) skills among students and professionals and by connecting knowledge flows between HEI, VET and industry actors that are necessary for Europe to develop cooperative solutions on a large-scale and support the recommendations for action in the major reports and initiatives: Green Deal, NextGenerationEU, European Skills Agenda and OECD Future of Education and Skills 2030. Partners Designskolen Kolding (coordinator) ISPIM HKMW GEA College IZT - Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment Finland Futures Research Centre Estonian Design Centre EDHEC Business School TalTech Airbus Region Midtjylland Nordic FoodTech VC Lufthansa Help Alliance CoModule North Estonia Medical Centre La Muu Michelin Peter Larsen Kaffe 6391 0 Futures Consciousness Scale Collaborative research on the human capacity to understand, anticipate, prepare for, and embrace the future. About Futures Consciousness The futures consciousness concept and scale has been developed by researchers at the Finland Futures Research Centre (University of Turku) and University of Geneva, with help from other contributors. Teach the Future received a grant from the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) and the Prince Mohammad bin Fahd University (PMU) to adapt the Scale for use by young people, ages 12-18. The results of that grant are being submitted for publication by the partners. After that, the Scale will be available for use by schools and other organizations that work with youth. The details will be published on this page shortly. Take the test: https://fctest.utu.fi/ The Five Dimensions of Futures Consciousness are: time perspective; the ability to be aware of the past, present and future, as well as the way events follow each other over time agency beliefs; basic sense of confidence that an individual has in their own ability to influence the external world openness to alternatives; abilities used to critically question commonly accepted ideas and influences an individual’s willingness to consider alternative ways of being and doing systems perception; the ability to recognize human and natural systems around us including groups, societies and ecosystems concern for others; relates to the degree to which an individual pursues favourable futures for a group beyond themselves Full article explaining the concept: The Five Dimensions of Futures Consciousness (Ahvenharju et al., 2018) Our partners Teach the Future collaborates with the University of Turku in Finland, the Finland Futures Research Centre and Digital Futures to research and promote the work in the context of education and (young) students. Sanna Ahvenharju, Matti Minkkinen and Fanny Lalot are the research experts that developed the futures consciousness concept and scale. Our activities Teach the Future supports the development of a scale matching the language and level of young people. This project is in collaboration with schools in the Netherlands, Italy, Turkiye, United States, and United Kingdom. And we thank our sponsor the Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd, Center for Futuristic Studies. Next to this we support the testing. Erica Bol has worked with Martin de Wolf of the Master Learning and Innovation at the Fontys University of Applied Sciene. She designed a futures lesson program supporting the Master program and tested if the students futures consciousness improved. The students did a test before and after the lessons program. A paper on the project and results are published in FUTURES issue 12-2022. 15525 3 Foresight for Intergenerational Decision-Making: Empowering Youth to Shape the Future Imagine a world where young people are not just the leaders of tomorrow, but the co-creators of today. That's the vision behind the Foresight for Intergenerational Decision-Making initiative, a brainchild of the Big Brainstorm project run by the Unlock the Future coalition, under the umbrella of the UN Foundation. The Big Brainstorm is like a global talent show on ideas. Young innovators from every corner of the world come together to brainstorm, design, and launch initiatives to tackle some of the biggest challenges humanity faces. This year, over 2,000 young minds have joined the Big Brainstorm, with nearly half of them proposing initiatives to speed up action towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Out of these, twenty initiatives were selected, and one of them is the Foresight for Intergenerational Decision-Making. The heart of this initiative is a toolkit designed to run multi-stakeholder Foresight exercises. Think of it as a DIY kit for the future, helping young people to build meaningful spaces where they can engage with adults, particularly decision-makers and the private sector, to co-create their vision for the future. The initiative is based on the belief that young people have innovative ideas and stories that can help shape the future. By using Foresight tools, they can engage in a process of co-creation, sharing their perspectives and visions for the future with decision-makers, and learning to anticipate both the opportunities and threats behind different scenarios. This summer, the toolkit will be put to the test different locations. It's like a world tour for the future, with young leaders from the United Nations Foundation’s Big Brainstorm leading the charge. The toolkit is being designed with the help of Foresight practitioners who have hands-on experience in intergenerational spaces and field experience in the Majority World. Currently, the forward thinkers behind the initiative have launched a global survey and conduct interviews to understand the fears and hopes of young people. Want to get involved ? You can complete the survey here and have the chance to connect with us at the end of the survey! The Foresight for Intergenerational Decision-Making initiative is a big step towards a future-focused approach. It aims to provide young people with a toolkit for creating meaningful intergenerational spaces, create a platform for adolescents, young people, and Foresight practitioners to brainstorm together, and showcase examples of good practice that can be replicated across the world. The initiative is open to all young people and their allies who are willing to contribute to its goals and offer fresh insights. Any youth networks interested in leading the organization of piloting experiences are encouraged to get in touch with the Action Group. In a nutshell, the Foresight for Intergenerational Decision-Making initiative is all about empowering young people to shape their futures. By giving them the tools and platforms to engage with decision-makers and the private sector, the initiative is nurturing a new generation of changemakers who are ready to tackle the world's most pressing challenges. The future is in our hands, and with the help of this initiative, young people are being given the tools to shape it. So, let's roll up our sleeves and get ready to shape the future together! Contact the coordination team : felibosch3@gmail.com / chalalidaouia@hotmail.fr / salifi.alimou@gmail.com / Claudette.salinas10@gmail.com The future generations movement has been growing for almost thirty years and was given a new lease of life after the 2021 report Our Common Agenda. The UN Secretary General has called for a multilateral system that incorporates long-term thinking. This has sparked a momentum in the United Nations, leading to plans for a Summit of the Future in 2024, a Declaration on Future Generations, and a recommendation to appoint a Special Envoy for Future Generations. 29224 1 Road-STEAMer Road-STEAMer attempts to develop a STEAM Roadmap for Science Education in Horizon Europe and in educational policy across the continent in order to: To produce better knowledge and shared understanding of Europe’s particular educational needs and how STEAM can address them. To explore the opportunities arising through STEAM for integrated science learning approaches and synergies. To study those policy deficiencies that hinter the impactful adoption of STEAM approaches in Europe’s science education landscape. 35214 0 1 2 1 ... 1 2 ... 2 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts NBA2King: This requires understanding market trends Blog September 4, 2024 1 0 0 MMOexp: Diablo 4 extends beyond its launch Blog September 4, 2024 2 0 0 MMOexp: FC 25 demands a decent processor Blog September 4, 2024 1 0 0 Slowly getting serious about solar geoengineering Blog February 21, 2023 29 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Research4Futures Delphi survey – explore the results! / Research4Futures Delphi survey – explore the results! Bianca Dragomir Apr 11, 2023 How important is the EU Framework Programme for Europe’s ability to respond effectively to potential future disruptions that could unfold from now to 2040? What are the implications of those disruptions for the directions of EU research & innovation in the period 2025-2027? These are the questions posed by the Research4Futures Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey , carried out between 6th – 18th of December 2022 by Institutul de Prospectiva , which engaged almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond. The disruptions explored in the survey were drawn from recent foresight work performed by the Foresight on Demand consortium on behalf of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD), namely two projects: Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe , and project S&T&I FOR 2050. Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions . These projects delivered so-called foresight scenarios at the time horizon of 2040, but the scope, methodologies and final results were different. The case studies developed in the two projects are rather extensive texts, so for a better user experience in the Research4Futures survey, these contents were clustered and significantly condensed, resulting in eleven domains, each presented in a one-page text. In the survey, each domain page was structured under three sections: i) a brief description of the disruption(s) in the respective domain; where the disruptions encompass both crises and opportunities, hopes and fears; ii) a set of brief future scenarios that explore different ways the disruptions might unfold and their consequences, iii) a final section on implications for R&I, in light of the disruptions. The figure below showcases the way respondents assessed the importance of the EU Framework Programme for Europe’s ability to respond effectively to the potential future disruptions within each of the domains explored in the survey. Notably, respondents regard the EU Framework Programme as an important vector of the EU in addressing challenges and opportunities brought forth by future disruptions, casting an average score between 4 and 5 (on the scale from 1 to 5) with regards to all domains, with a minor exception. Second, contributors to the survey view the EU Framework Programme to be of utmost relevance and importance in connection to the future of Artificial intelligence; suggesting a significant role of research and innovation in improving AI applications and establishing ethical frameworks for AI developments, in shaping the nature of human–AI collaboration. The top R&I directions stemming from the survey are: AI improvements for specific applications The nature of AI and human intelligence AI in medical applications Understanding cooperation between humans and AGI systems Ethical standards, AI regulatory sandboxes To explore the full results of the Research4Futures survey we warmly invite you to consult the report below. Final Report_Research4Futures survey .pdf Download PDF • 1.79MB 21763 0 0 EU R&I policy Delphi EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1540 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2088 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 475 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation > Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation FAO’s Office of Innovation worked with partners on an FAO Chief Scientist initiative on Foresight on emerging agrifood technologies and innovations, aligned with the UN 2.0 process and the FOFA 2022: engaging all key actors of agricultural innovation systems in the foresight on emerging technologies and innovations to better prepare for alternative futures, feeding it into anticipatory action, and convening the global community for constructive dialogue and knowledge exchange. The aim was to support policymakers, investors and innovation actors in their approaches and decision-making. The study assesses a selection of technologies and innovations, which potentially could be of paramount importance in addressing agrifood challenges until 2050, as well as the most important trends and drivers that will influence the emergence of agrifood technologies and innovations and their triggers of change, including some regional aspects. The goal is also to build plausible future scenarios for the evolvement of the emerging technologies and innovations in the future with the time horizon of 2050 to inform future-oriented policymaking. The report is built with inputs from a multistakeholder Delphi survey and online workshops with experts. Alexandrova-Stefanova, N., Nosarzewski, K., Mroczek, Z.K., Audouin, S., Djamen, P., Kolos, N. & Wan, J. 2023. Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation – Global foresight synthesis report . Rome. FAO and Cirad. 7561 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en?details=cc8498en OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Scenarios Agriculture Horizon Scanning Food Delphi MEET THE EXPERTS Kacper Nosarzewski View on LinkedIn Norbert Kołos View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Shaping futures, story by story Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications A new policy brief explores alternative future outcomes for green skills and jobs in Europe 2050. Based on participatory workshops and a foresight deep dive, the policy brief presents four alternative scenarios and their implications for R&I policy. Mikkel Knudsen 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 6: The Futures of Big Tech in Europe The sixth Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop explored futures of Big Tech in Europe. Contemporary societies increasingly rely on Big Tech for different functions, such as work, communication, consumption, and self-expression. Laura Galante 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 6 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Future risks Project Decision makers are faced with a world characterised by increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. These conditions make it more difficult to assess risks when making strategic decisions or planning for the long-term. This project from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) EU Policy Lab starting 2023 presents a foresight approach to increase preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create. Foresight methods offer a way to consider and focus on risks that may be beyond the scope of traditional quantitative and qualitative risk assessment approaches. Several snapshots of the future depict different worlds that have undergone substantial changes as a consequence of emerging developments. An analysis of the risks inherent in the possible futures identified ten risk clusters that are relevant for decision makers, and mapped future developments that might lead to them.The same development pathways that could lead to risks can also create opportunities, and the study provides some examples. Decision makers face the challenge of mitigating the adverse effects of risks, while reaping the benefits of potential opportunities. This study also presents the results of a Delphi survey that evaluated the scope and severity of risks. Three of the 40 risks identified in this study were assessed to be potentially existential for humanity: 1) environmental degradation, 2) environmental disasters, and 3) loss of power by humans. The project started in 2023 and will run until 2024. Next in the development is an engagement tool for policymakers to push the boundaries of foresight on risks in their specific policy making domain. Stay tuned for its launch, later in autumn 2024! Download the Risks on the horizon report Read the blog post from the authors UN Summit of the Future: Risks on the horizon JRC hosted a panel discussion at the UN Summit of the Future on September 21st 2024 on how foresight can complement classical risk assessment methods. The United Nations will publish its first Global Risk Report in Autumn 2024. This follows the UNDRR UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2023. The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission published in June 2024 its report "Risks on the Horizon". In addition, the World Economic Forum published its Global Risk Report in January 2024. The panel gathers together experts behind these reports and speakers highlight how existing foresight methods can help to identify future risks, many of which are inter-generational, by using methods which do not rely on a risk already being known. PanellistsAyaka Suzuki, Director, Strategic Planning and Monitoring Unit, Executive Office of the Secretary-General, United Nations (UN)Lori Moore Merrell, U.S Fire Administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)Thomas Hemmelgarn, Head of Unit, EU Policy Lab, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (EC)Bryonie Guthrie, Foresight and Organizational Transformation, Strategic Intelligence, World Economic Forum (WEF)Timo Harakka, Member of Parliament, Vice Chairperson of the Committee for the Future, FinlandModeratorsTommi Asikainen, Joint Research Centre, European CommissionAnne-Katrin Bock, Joint Research Centre, European Commission Watch the recording of the event UN Web TV Read the insights from the blog 4680 0 Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg Luxembourg Strategy, the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks:1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbeing since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transitions since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finances since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html 7334 2 Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report 5955 0 FUTURINNOV The FUTURINNOV project run by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches. This is done through activities to identify funding priorities, inform programme design, contribute to policy feedback, and develop institutional governance. The main objectives are to:• Provide short and medium-term future-oriented evidence-based advice on signals and trends of emerging technologies, breakthrough innovation, and investment patterns;• Support the development of long-term EIC strategic intelligence, grounded in anticipatory, collective, and hybrid methods, towards knowledge transfer and capacity building; and• Explore innovative anticipatory thinking and future-oriented methodologies to support EIC in its mission as a funding body and a knowledge- provider for policy design and implementation. The project started in the beginning of the 2024 and will run until February 2025. Outputs of the FUTURINNOV project will include three literature reviews identifying and analysing signals of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations as well as findings from horizon scanning workshops. Eyes on the Future: Volume 1 Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1 The report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making.The literature review(1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies,(2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report,(3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies(4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights(5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting. Read the reportRead some insights from the authors on the blog (Dis)Entangling the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics:quantum sensingquantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics modelsmaterials for quantumArtificial Intelligence for quantumerror correctionsolid-state scalabilityquantum for Artificial Intelligencequantum as a service – metacloudquantum computersFurthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility. Read the report 6453 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... 10 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts NBA2King: This requires understanding market trends Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 1 0 0 MMOexp: Diablo 4 extends beyond its launch Blog September 4, 2024 2 0 0 MMOexp: FC 25 demands a decent processor Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 1 0 0 Slowly getting serious about solar geoengineering Blog February 21, 2023 29 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Trigger > Trigger The ultimate objectives are to provide EU institutions with knowledge and tools to enhance their actorness, effectiveness and influence in global governance. TRIGGER specific objectives are: Advance the state of the art in understanding global governance; Evolution of the EU’s interaction with global governance, in particular so-called “actorness” and “effectiveness” of the EU; Understand how global governance and emerging technologies interact, and what role the EU plays in this respect, in particular as “regulatory superpower”; Identify emerging trends that strengthen / loosen deeper global governance and cooperation; Build capacity for strategic foresight and public engagement inside EU institutions. 28953 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://trigger-project.eu/ OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Scenarios Global governance MEET THE EXPERTS Futures4Europe Admin View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Shaping futures, story by story Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications A new policy brief explores alternative future outcomes for green skills and jobs in Europe 2050. Based on participatory workshops and a foresight deep dive, the policy brief presents four alternative scenarios and their implications for R&I policy. Mikkel Knudsen 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 6: The Futures of Big Tech in Europe The sixth Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop explored futures of Big Tech in Europe. Contemporary societies increasingly rely on Big Tech for different functions, such as work, communication, consumption, and self-expression. Laura Galante 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 6 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg Luxembourg Strategy, the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks:1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbeing since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transitions since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finances since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html 7333 2 Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report 5955 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project. The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities: As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis. An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on the online platform www.futures4europe.eu. An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions. On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics: > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership > Global Commons > Transhumanist Revolutions Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments: > Social Confrontations > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities > The Future of Health A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days. Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy. This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. Partner organizations: Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) Institutul de Prospectiva (IP) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISINNOVA) Technopolis Group 4strat Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) Arctik Fraunhofer ISI About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 7050 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ... 9 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / ESPAS Global trends report 2024: The trends, the uncertainties and challenges for choosing Europe’s future / ESPAS Global trends report 2024: The trends, the uncertainties and challenges for choosing Europe’s future Laura Galante Jun 3, 2024 Following the publishing of the Fourth Global Trends ESPAS report in April 2024, Futures4Europe had the pleasure of interviewing the editor and two co-authors of the report about their reflections and key trend insights throughout the foresight research and writing process. ESPAS, or the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, unites nine EU institutions and bodies to collaboratively identify and analyze medium- and long-term trends affecting the EU, informing policy-makers about their implications. The Fourth Global Trends ESPAS report is available here . Eamonn Noonan , co-author of the report, is an official of the European Parliament Research Service in the Foresight Unit, which has had a quality secretarial role for ESPAS ever since the unit was set up in 2015. Salvatore Finamore, also a co-author, is a member of the Analysis and Research Team in the General Secretary of the Council of the European Union and was involved in the initial scoping and facilitating parts of the foresight process. Geraldine Barry is the editor of the ESPAS report and Adviser for Knowledge Synthesis at the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. She coordinated the drafting efforts across all 9 European institutions and bodies involved in the process. What key global trends have emerged since the last ESPAS report, and how does it compare to previous editions in terms of its identified trends and recommended strategies ? Eamonn: In the previous report, we addressed the full spectrum of trends, such geopolitics, economics, and environment. While we’re still addressing them, there's a sense of intensification. Things are more serious now than they were five years ago. Two elements have emerged since 2019, namely more fragmentation, both in geopolitics and in democracy. We were already aware that geopolitical tensions had worsened, and now there is much greater awareness of democratic fragility. The other dimension is interconnectedness. Democratic fragility is a source of geopolitical fragility, and vice versa. The interconnections across trends are now more apparent and more appreciated. Salvatore: Foresight is a study of possible futures, but there is also another element, namely the study of present images of the future. That’s why it's interesting to look at previous ESPAS reports and see how they compare. In this report, one key observation is that we are more focussed on the uncertainties we face. The previous report contained more definitive statements, which was probably in part a stylistic choice, but perhaps also a reflection of a different time. Our current report sees the future as less certain: in fact, one of our main sections for each chapter is entitled ‘key uncertainties to 2040’. Another aspect is that for some trends you can expect to see a large degree of continuity with previous reports, but also signs of a shift in the accompanying narratives. The clearest example perhaps is that of an increased awareness of the importance of climate change adaptation, together with mitigation. While climate change was already a well-established trend at the time of previous reports, adaptation is also increasingly seen as a key component of the strategies that we need to put in place, as we are aware that some elements of climate change are simply unavoidable given the current trends. Additionally, elements such as climate, energy, food security, health increasingly seem to have geopolitics attached to them. Indeed, if you look for ‘geopolitics’ in the text of the current report compared to the previous one, it appears twice as frequently. Reflecting on the present images of the future, I think this ‘geopoliticization of everything’ is a very significant development that we didn't see previously and which for me also carries risks for self-fulfilling prophecies. What trends were clearest to identify and which still present uncertainty in light of this interconnectedness? Salvatore: The key uncertainties section of the climate change trend was a challenge because we don't want to present climate change as uncertain. There are of course uncertainties linked to climate change but overall there is more clarity due to quantitative data. Therefore, the trend is relatively more straightforward compared to others that are more qualitative, for example geopolitics. At the same time, there is also a risk in presenting some trends as too well established for us to have agency in altering their course. Eamonn: On the economic front, discussions on how to return to prosperity and how to achieve competitiveness continue. Forecasting, as distinct from foresight, can help in the near term, but we need to use foresight in preparing for the long term. What foresight methodologies were used in the report? Salvatore: We started with an initial scoping exercise with the members of the core team, which was a larger group of colleagues than just the final drafters. There, we used a simple environmental scan based on the STEEP framework and then a clustering exercise where we scoped what subjects we see in our collective awareness. After doing this, we had a first round of validation with the ESPAS steering group. Then we engaged in more in-depth trend analysis, looking at drivers and impact analysis. For each trend we analyzed, we employed a modified futures wheel approach where we examined both the historical drivers and the potential future impacts. This involved making links and identifying overlaps to understand the interaction of these elements. To further explore the systemic complexity and interconnections between various drivers, we also conducted a cross-impact analysis. This allowed us to map and analyze the intricate relationships and dependencies across different factors. We had several rounds of consultations with experts, both from the EU institutions and outside. Finally, we also incorporated some of the results of the ESPAS horizon scanning process. What challenges did you encounter and how did you overcome them? Geraldine: We had to identify the key uncertainties beyond what we already know, as it is easier to focus on what we observe now. Compared with the previous report, the interconnectedness and convergence of trends pose difficult challenges, which we tried to frame in the strategic choices in the last chapter, striving not to be prescriptive in any way. Running deep dive workshops across the EU institutions and reflecting on each trend was very helpful. One of the things we hope to transmit is that there is agency and choice in the strategic decisionmaking that comes as a result of responding to trends. Lastly, this being an interinstitutional process with nine EU bodies also meant maximising knowledge synthesis and condensing a lot of information. Our steering group ensured we had a strong approval process throughout. Eamonn: Strategic foresight is actually intended to challenge orthodox viewpoints. In an exercise of this kind, there can be reservations about certain framings. Ultimately the strategic choices identified in this report are broadly compatible with the priorities of the mainstream political groupings within the EU. Foresight looks decades into the future, compared to the length of political mandates. To what extent does embedding foresight in policy making also align with the decisions taken by elected representatives? Salvatore: One of the key messages of the report is that we have long-term trends and we need to act now if we want to shape the long-term future. What we convey is that, ultimately, if we don't act, then the trends will make the choice for us. Eamonn: The report seeks to provide a long-term analysis that can inform policy and strategy formulation today. Several trends do not align with the EU's strategic interest in collaborating with others to reduce global polarization and prevent rivalries from escalating into conflicts. If these trends continue and we do nothing, then it will be increasingly difficult to maintain the peace and prosperity that the EU hopes will continue. The overall tone of this report suggests that, if left unattended, several things are not going in a direction that benefits Europe. At the same time, communicating uncertainty is very difficult. Politicians and, indeed, the general public, expect to have control and stability. The shift from the clear-cut certainties of the Cold War, where the lines between "good" and "bad" were well-defined, to a more ambiguous political landscape creates a complex environment. This trend toward uncertainty requires strategies to reassure people that, despite unpredictability, there are ways to manage it. It's a reminder of the importance of flexibility and preparedness for various outcomes. How should then European countries adjust their long-term strategic planning to accommodate for unseen global shifts? Salvatore: It’s really about building preparedness, so thinking in a way that can prepare us for different futures. It's more about putting yourself in a position where you can easily accommodate for whatever the future may throw at you. Eamonn: One point that we make is that once you establish a strategic direction, it's good for Europe if the different institutions act in an aligned fashion. That equally applies to different policy areas. If you're doing something in one policy area that conflicts with the objectives of another policy area, then you make it harder to achieve overall strategic objectives. In what ways do you expect this report to be taken up by policymakers? Salvatore: This report will be part of the briefings that senior level policymakers will receive. Personally, I expect this kind of report to contribute to the policy discourse and the broader narrative rather than policy itself. It's meant to stimulate a debate and I think it will create an impact by influencing the information environment in which policymaking is conceived and implemented. Eamonn: The 2019 report significantly overlapped with the European Commission's priorities, likely reflecting the prevailing thoughts within the institutions about upcoming challenges. Similarly, this report may overlap with the issues identified by the incoming Commission. This is more correlation than causation. The new Commission will take office after the European Parliament elections, which will refelect many different perspectives. When that all comes together it will reflect a much more diverse European picture, centred and rooted in the Member States. The ESPAS report draws from a broad spectrum of inputs, but it is influenced by thinking within the participating institutions. Geraldine: The timing of this report is very deliberate, as it was released in April before the upcoming mandates of the Commission, Parliament, and the Council. The aim is to stimulate reflection and discussion and encourage the notion of embedding the capacity to adapt quickly, not just stay on one course. If this approach becomes more reflexive rather than exceptional, it would entail a significant shift in traditional policy-making practices. 7853 0 0 Global trends EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1540 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2087 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 475 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost