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THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Eye of Europe Project Launches Report on R&I Actors and Foresight Activities in Europe / Eye of Europe Project Launches Report on R&I Actors and Foresight Activities in Europe Simon Winter Sep 11, 2024 The European foresight community has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. The newly published Eye of Europe report "Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe" provides an assessment of just that, namely the actors, preferred methodologies, success factors and bottlenecks for effective R&I foresight projects, as well as trends for future R&I foresight projects in Europe. This stocktaking, carried out by the DLR Projektträger in the framework of the Eye of Europe project, is based on a comprehensive survey of 43 R&I foresight organisations in 16 ERA and four non-ERA countries. Interviews with renowned national foresight experts complement the findings. Similar response rates from government and academia, business and other organisations such as consultancies or NGOs allowed for a diverse snapshot of R&I foresight approaches in Europe. Highlighting flagship projects For the preparation of the study, European foresight actors submitted 54 different R&I foresight projects. These include projects that aim to anticipate technological and societal changes in order to inform national and regional R&I strategies and make them more robust, or foresight projects that address complex global issues such as climate change, cancer or sustainable food security. Others seek to understand new developments, such as the digital transformation, and analyse the social and economic impact of these changes, or to develop and design new products. R&I foresight projects are not only carried out at European and national level. The report additionally highlights sub-national champions such as the Friuli Venezia Giulia region and Sardinia in Italy, the Helsinki-Uusimaa region in Finland, Ostbelgien and the Flemish government in Belgium, or Hauts-de-France, to show how they have used foresight methods to advance their R&I agendas. What are critical success factors and bottlenecks for R&I foresight projects in Europe? Here is what the R&I foresight experts believe contributed to the success of their projects: Top of the list of critical success factors - mentioned by almost all respondents - is high-level commitment and support from government representatives. Ensuring cross-sectoral stakeholder engagement was another frequently cited factor. Leveraging existing networks or databases of expertise was also cited as a critical success factor, as it enables the rapid mobilisation of the right experts. But how can we ensure that we reach the relevant people and keep them engaged? Several R&I foresight experts stressed the importance of defining and communicating a clear purpose for the project and explaining why it is important and worth stakeholders' time, as well as demonstrating that foresight can add value in the context of today's R&I challenges. What can foresight achieve and what are its limitations? Transparency of methods also contributes to credibility. Facilitating direct interaction between participants in creative settings has the potential to be beneficial, allowing for more dynamic and contextually rich foresight outcomes. The R&I foresight experts noted that it is important to allow sufficient time for interactive discussions. Wherever possible, the setting should be face-to-face. Yet, these R&I foresight projects have not always gone to plan. Bottlenecks identified include recurring ones such as insufficient time for comprehensive analysis and stakeholder engagement, or financial constraints that can prevent in-depth trend analysis and essential foresight activities. It can also be time-consuming to mobilise a diverse group of experts and policy-makers for participatory exercises, which can be a challenge in a time-critical project. Short-term thinking and a reluctance to challenge established beliefs can hinder the exploration of alternative futures and stifle innovative foresight efforts. Others reported the "impact gap" and their struggle to ensure that foresight results influence decision making, often exacerbated by an over-reliance on written summaries that lack engaging communication methods. Finally, maintaining objectivity in horizon-scanning activities and avoiding the pitfalls of techno-optimism can also be challenging. What's next? Trends in R&I foresight The report provides answers to those curious about the new frontiers and trends in the use of R&I foresight. Whether it's the integration of AI and machine learning technologies into foresight practices, the representation of future generations and nature in foresight processes, speculative and design-based approaches or debiasing techniques, the methods of R&I foresight are constantly evolving. For those wishing to expand their networks, the report also provides an overview of international and European (R&I) foresight networks, national (R&I) foresight networks, networks focusing on technology assessment, and examples of regular (R&I) foresight conferences or conferences with sessions dedicated to R&I foresight. This stocktaking report is a snapshot of the status quo of R&I foresight actors in Europe. However, new innovative projects are being implemented as you read this article. As the Eye of Europe project consortium, we are committed to strengthening fora for exchange among R&I practitioners interested in foresight methodologies. Let's continue the lively discussions on our Futures4Europe platform to shape tomorrow's R&I agendas together. You can read the full report on the Futures4Europe platform. For more information, feel free to reach out to the author Simon Winter either through our platform or at Simon.Winter@dlr.de . 2758 0 0 Eye of Europe EU R&I policy Mutual Learning Exercise EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1538 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2086 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 474 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Navigating the Future: The Power of Tri-Scope Synthesis / Navigating the Future: The Power of Tri-Scope Synthesis Dimitris Dimitriadis Jun 1, 2024 In a world where change is the only constant, strategic foresight is more critical than ever. The Tri-Scope Synthesis method offers a robust framework combining critical, futures and exponential thinking, equipping leaders and organizations with the tools to anticipate and influence their futures effectively. The Tri-Scope Synthesis is a framework developed by futurist and advisor of the Special Secretariat of Foresight of the Hellenic Republic, Dimitris Dimitriadis , designed to provide a practical tool for foresight practice. It integrates three distinct ways of thinking: critical thinking for unbiased analysis, futures thinking for exploring potential scenarios, and exponential thinking to anticipate rapid technological and societal changes. This combination enables the creation of strategies that are innovative, adaptable, and sustainable, effectively navigating the complexities of future challenges and opportunities. This framework enhances decision-making by grounding strategies in thorough, bias-free analysis, recognizing the exponential rate of technological and societal transformations, and ensuring adaptability to rapid shifts. It addresses the need for an advanced approach in today's fast-paced environment by incorporating comprehensive risk management, ethical considerations, and sustainability into the strategic planning process. By merging these diverse thinking modalities, Tri-Scope Synthesis not only anticipates future trends and disruptions but also crafts innovative, resilient strategies that are prepared to meet ethical and ecological demands, making it an essential tool for leaders aiming to effectively navigate the complexities of the modern world. This article delves into the depths of the Tri-Scope Synthesis, illustrating its application through a hypothetical scenario in the renewable energy sector. The Tri-Scope Synthesis Framework 1. Foundation in Critical Thinking At the core of the Tri-Scope Synthesis is critical thinking, which provides the groundwork for objective analysis. This stage involves scrutinizing current data, trends, and assumptions to identify biases and blind spots. It emphasizes rigorous evaluation of risks and implications of new trends and innovations, ensuring that decisions are well-informed and reflect reality, not just optimistic projections. 2. Integration of Futures Thinking Futures thinking expands the vision, enabling organizations to look beyond the immediate horizon. This component of the Tri-Scope Synthesis involves developing multiple long-term scenarios, including potential, probable, and preferable futures. Strategic foresight is applied to anticipate changes and challenges over extended periods, incorporating broad societal, economic, and environmental factors into planning. This helps in crafting strategies that are resilient and adaptable to expected and unexpected changes. 3. Application of Exponential Thinking Exponential thinking addresses the rapid acceleration of technological and market changes, identifying areas where growth may not just be linear but could potentially explode—such as in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, or renewable energy technologies. In the framework, the emphasis on designing strategies that are scalable and adaptable is crucial for organizations to thrive amid rapid technological evolutions. Scalability ensures that strategies can expand in capacity and scope without losing effectiveness as demands increase or as opportunities for growth emerge. Adaptable strategies, on the other hand, allow organizations to modify their approach as new information becomes available or as external conditions change. This flexibility is vital for areas such as renewable energy technologies, where regulatory shifts and technological breakthroughs can quickly redefine the market landscape. By prioritizing scalability and adaptability, organizations can create dynamic systems that not only withstand rapid change but also harness it to drive innovation and growth, positioning themselves as leaders in their respective fields. 4. A Synthesis for Strategic Decision-Making In this final phase, insights from various fields are integrated to formulate strategies that are not only innovative but also sustainable and ethically sound. For example, consider a tech company that develops AI-driven solutions to optimize energy use in urban developments. The innovative aspect of the strategy involves using cutting-edge AI to analyze data from sources such as weather patterns, energy consumption, and traffic flows to dynamically adjust energy usage, reducing waste and optimizing efficiency. However, the sustainability and ethical soundness of the strategy come into play by ensuring these AI systems promote energy equity and do not disproportionately benefit wealthier neighborhoods over less affluent ones. Moreover, the company commits to transparency about data usage and safeguards privacy, addressing potential ethical concerns around surveillance and data security. By integrating these considerations, the strategy not only pushes the envelope on technological innovation but also upholds high standards of sustainability and ethical responsibility. This ensures long-term viability and acceptance of the technology in society, fostering trust and cooperation from various stakeholders and community members, which are crucial for the successful implementation and scalability of such projects. The outcome is a set of strategic plans that are flexible, allowing organizations to pivot and adapt as scenarios evolve. A practical implementation example: Transitioning to Renewable Energy Consider a scenario where a company is transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The following process presents how the Tri-Scope synthesis could be applied to integrate a detailed and strategic approach for this transition, specifically focussing on identifying and incorporating pivotal innovations: 1. Critical Analysis of Current Capabilities and Market Conditions Assessment of Infrastructure: The company would start by evaluating its existing infrastructure and technology to determine how they can be adapted or need to be replaced for renewable energy production. This might include assessing the potential for retrofitting existing power plants with renewable technology or repurposing sites for solar or wind farms. A market and competitor analysis would aim to understand market demands, regulatory requirements, and competitor actions. This would involve analyzing trends in energy consumption, government incentives for renewable energy, and actions taken by competitors in the renewable space. 2. Futures Thinking for Scenario Planning: The company would develop scenarios based on different market and regulatory futures. For example, one scenario might explore the impact of a new government subsidy for renewable energy, while another might examine the ramifications of technological breakthroughs in solar energy efficiency. 3. Exponential Thinking to Identify Pivotal Innovations: Actively monitoring advancements in renewable energy technologies such as solar photovoltaic, wind turbine efficiency, or next-generation biofuels could reveal innovations that dramatically reduce costs or increase efficiency. For example, the adoption of battery storage technology that can efficiently store solar power during peak production times to be used during off-peak hours could be a game-changer. This innovation would allow the company to offer continuous power supply solutions, thus solving one of the major limitations of solar and wind energy. 4. Integration of Insights into Strategic Planning Flexible Strategy Development : Using the insights gathered, the company would design strategies that are adaptable to various future scenarios. This might include investing in modular renewable technology that can be scaled up or down quickly in response to market demand. Through cross-departmental collaboration, insights and data can flow seamlessly between departments such as R&D, operations, and marketing to implement a unified strategy that aligns with both technological advancements and market needs. Establishing a protocol for regular strategic reviews to assess the effectiveness of the renewable transition strategy against real-world outcomes and evolving scenarios would further be necessary to continuously update technological adoptions, re-evaluating market strategies, and refining operational practices accordingly. Implementing feedback mechanisms to gather insights from all stakeholders, including employees, customers, and community members, would also enable continuous improvement and strategy adaptation. By integrating these insights, a company can ensure that its transition to renewable energy is not only aligned with current capabilities and market conditions but is also robust enough to adapt to future changes and leverage new opportunities. The company can then remain agile and forward-thinking, capable of leading in a dynamically changing energy market. By integrating critical, futures, and exponential thinking, the Tri-Scope Synthesis approach provides a structured yet flexible framework that can help organizations adapt and innovate in response to an ever-changing world. 6376 0 1 Foresight EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1538 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2086 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 474 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation / Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation Laura Galante Dec 4, 2023 The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) are typically viewed as a cornerstone for innovation, because they facilitate knowledge transactions that might otherwise be hindered due to the public good nature of knowledge. Thus IPR are seen as crucial in promoting creative and inventive activities. However, some critics argue that IPR can be a costly market distortion, inhibiting rather than encouraging innovation. IPR institutions are increasingly under scrutiny amidst evolving innovation trends and changes. IPR, known for their technical complexity and variability across legal jurisdictions, are facing diverse challenges, reflecting the dynamic nature of modern innovation and innovation policy. Amongst the important shifts are trends towards more inclusive, open innovation processes involving various stakeholders and the growing influence of digitalization. The presentation of scenarios relating to the future of intellectual property was the cue for participants, speakers, and experts alike to begin teasing out the underlying implications of IP for innovation and patenting. The scenarios evolved along important emerging trends and were mapped along two dimensions: private versus public use of IP, and concentration of power versus distribution of power. These dimensions, along with a definition of key drivers and main actors, yielded the following five scenarios: End of IP as we know it – Key actors are large cloud-based giants and trade secrets are a prevalent form of IP. Europe loses value as tech giants are not based in Europe. Unitary patent loses meaning. Policy implications: anti-trust and ex-ante regulation are of utmost importance to avoid obscured private governance of IP. ‘Creative destruction’ of the IP regime – Drivers include the speed of technological change, increasing technological complexity, and disruptive technologies. Europe faces regulatory challenges. Regarding policy implications, the aim is to maintain the quality of IPR and IP authorities are encouraged to operate in the public interest. IP a battlefield of geopolitics – EU hands out strong security patents within a harmonized IPR regime. In regulation, mandatory mediation is paramount and the mediator has access to agreements from patent owner. Global and balanced IP for open innovation – IP is lean toward access. Drivers include public interest, global IP, and the movement of public goods. AI and digitalization play a role in ensuring transparency, monitoring, and innovation. Science has become the solution to address extreme weather events. Public funding ensures that there is open access to public research results. Open-source collaboration globalized innovation – Innovation is driven by collaborative communities and startups. There is capacity to regulate access to EU internal market and influence global supply chains. The audience offered commentary and discussed the individual scenarios. One participant noted that several scenarios focused primarily on IP and innovation from a techno-centric perspective, suggesting a need for greater emphasis on the social context of innovation. A point was made about how the fourth scenario, which dealt with global and balanced IP, better addressed this aspect by highlighting the implications of patents for public good in the context of COVID. One of the projects presented subsequently, Creative IPR , further touched upon these implications for the creative industries, namely pointing to the impact of the COVID crisis on revenue generated from copyrights, particularly for the music sector. The project coordinator argued that the pandemic highlighted the vulnerability of the music industry due to a heavier reliance on copyright for revenue compared to a more resilient sector, such as fashion design and textiles. This raised questions about how to best support the music industry through IP in times of crisis. Touching upon the technological implications for IP, a representative from the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO ), argued that human contribution to innovation will not be replaced by AI, but that a lot of AI applications rely on training data, which still makes use of human creativity. He argued that in Europe, one area that has seen the strongest progress is digital technology, at the expense of more traditional technologies such as mechanical, chemical, and technical engineering, which have witnessed a reduced number of patent filings. On the other hand, he stressed how the fastest growth in patent development in East Asia questions how European companies should prepare for a changing landscape in innovation reflected in intellectual property. One remark in reaction to this was a caution not to forget traditional technologies, and not to assume that these would be overshadowed by aspects such as digitalization, but to continue fostering this strength in traditional technologies. While Europe is a follower in the area of digitalisation, AI-generated products are still driven by human creativity and engineering, highlighting the importance for regulators not to forget about this link. Referencing the fourth scenario, another participant argued that countries in East Asia, such as India, which advocate for more access, may contribute to a changing geopolitical landscape towards access, fostered by national trade interests. Focusing more on production and less on usage could lead to duplicating many existing patents. At the same time, this approach might also entail increased international collaboration and bilateral relations, pooling resources to accelerate innovation. The overall discussion highlighted the need to strike a balance between innovation incentives and the right to access. It is essential to find a middle ground that encourages creative and scientific advancement while ensuring information and educational resources remain accessible to all. 10494 0 0 IPR regulation EU R&I policy Scenarios EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1538 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2086 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 474 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / ORION: Meet Your Co-Pilot in Horizon Scanning / ORION: Meet Your Co-Pilot in Horizon Scanning Laura Galante Feb 29, 2024 Paulo Carvalho has been working in the field of futures and foresight for more than 25 years. On one hand, he is a professor in foresight, strategy and innovation at the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Lisbon. On the other hand, he founded a foresight company five years ago, IF Insight Foresight, focussing on consulting, horizon scanning and strategic intelligence, as well as other strategy and innovation projects. He talked to Futures4Europe about Insight Foresight’s recently developed tool ORION and how it could revolutionise foresight practices. Tell us about ORION. Orion is a horizon scanning and intelligent system that incorporates different kinds of databases in powerful ways to capture, identify, categorise and make sense of different driving forces, such as megatrends, specific trends, wild cards and weak signals. Scanning stems from the principle of a holistic and extensive approach to explore the future. Our tool uses databases to enable individuals and organisations to extract, identify and make sense of the complex, holistic and systemic world in which we live. For about six years, we have used what we call a scanning and intelligence database, which through ORION can be organised both for consulting and also capacity building and training provisions. Can you explain how the tool captures, categorises, and leverages drivers of change, insights and signals? We synthesise data from both curated and non curated databases and integrate them with the knowledge of ORION AI, which is the combination of these databases with the power of generative AI. The database is organised around 20 megatrends that encompass around 1,400 different trends and signals. Each one of these elements and its metadata was curated by our team, or a third party. Lastly, the second layer of the database is designed for the identification and classification of non-curated information (such as articles) from various sources. These include more than 20,000 driving forces that keep growing and expanding. We can organise and extract specific trends, clusters, connections patterns from each layer or the entire scanning database using specific algorithms. How does it help you find what you’re looking for? When you ask a question to ORION AI, the system will go through a three-step process. Firstly, it will consult the first curated layer with megatrends and trends. Then, it explores the second layer, which consists of more fluid, non-curated articles. Based on this, it will go through the knowledge of the large language model, in this case GPT 4, to obtain the most relevant answers on the foresight horizon scanning query. In this sense, it is a co-pilot, an interactive conversation. Each time you interact and ask the system questions, you improve the way that you are talking and interacting with the system. Who will be the primary users of your tool? You do not have to be from a specific background or industry to explore and extract value and knowledge relevance from the database, hence why the many global forces and megatrends included. It's a global platform with global content in which you can make deep dives. Part of this will be available for public use, so you can explore multiple megatrends and the detailed description of each. After a certain level of depth, a subscription will be required to have access to the entire set of megatrends and trends and make use of the generative AI assistant. For example, you can look for trends related to the future of biotechnology, but if you want to go deeper and know more specific applications of this, you can make a deep dive and explore the topic more narrowly. How does this tool address potential biases and ensure the ethical use of AI-generated insights? In the construction of ORION, we still employ a human approach, in other words, the curation of the database and its sources. Of course, through keyword filtering and text, we cannot exclude our own biases. When we combine these with generative AI, we generate clusters or global forces not just from the top down, but also enabling the database to create its own clusters through a algorithms. What emerges from the algorithmic approach is different from our approach to organising our database, which is how we can identify blind spots and biases by comparing what our team has done and what the language model has done. When you use generative AI and large language models, even those trained by our own database, it is inevitable that biases translate to the generated answers. They will always be there, so, never take for granted the results obtained from the system. However, I believe that what you can get is so powerful and it can be so insightful. What advice would you give to those who would like to use AI for strategic foresight? My first advice is don't be afraid of exploring the new world of generative AI that is already disrupting strategic foresight, futures horizon scanning and strategic intelligence. We are using powerful algorithms to identify patterns and things that two or three years ago was completely impossible for many people who work in this field. However, you need to be aware of the biases that can ensue and iterate these with your team, workshops, participatory methods, hence why you should see this tool as a co-pilot. Use it with caution and be aware that we are just at the beginning of this journey in which generative AI has an impact in our personal and professional lives. Foresight, combined with innovation and strategy, will only continue to expand in the world of AI and generative AI. 10915 0 5 Horizon Scanning Digital Artificial intelligence EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1538 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2086 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 474 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / S&T&I for 2050 Project Approach and Methodology / S&T&I for 2050 Project Approach and Methodology Klaus Kubeczko Oct 3, 2022 The project “S&T&I for 2050” is structured around five intertwined tasks: The conceptual base for the project was built on existing scientific literature, on feedback provided by workshops, experts, and EC stakeholders, and on quality assurance provided by three external key experts. The result of this task is a framework of three perspectives on ecosystem performance: Protecting and restoring ecosystems, Co-shaping socio-ecological systems, Caring within hybrid collectives. To identify current and emerging STI trends in Task 2, a series of mapping exercises that relied on quantitative methods were performed. Most importantly a Dynamic Argumentative Delphi was conducted. Six of the major thematic areas of STI trends were selected for advancing six case studies. The case studies conducted related to the following topics: Soil health, with the title “Soil to Soul” Land use, with the title “Land Use Futures” Systems of production and consumption, with the title “From Waste Management to Regenerative Economy” Data uses, with the title “Data as Representation” Rights of nature, with the title “Law for Nature” Developments in the micro- and nano-cosmos, with the title “Ecosystems and Micro-and Nano Cosmos” 20506 0 0 EU R&I policy Delphi Scenarios Horizon Scanning EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1538 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2086 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 474 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > S+T+Arts > S+T+Arts Science, technology and arts (STARTS for short) limn a nexus at which insightful observers have identified extraordinarily high potential for innovation. 24556 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://starts.eu/ OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Responsible research and Innovation Technological change Art MEET THE EXPERTS Futures4Europe Admin View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Renata Mandzhieva 0 0 0 Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Dana Wasserbacher 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2677 0 Sound of Contagion – An Artistic Research Project Exploring A.I. as a Creative Tool for Transmedial Storytelling The collaborative project Sound of Contagion (SoC), conducted between 2020-2023, is a transmedial art project addressing the cultural narratives surrounding global diseases and pandemics. SoC explores the intersection of artificial intelligence and creative storytelling by examining A.I. as a tool to inspire and enhance artistic expression. Interdisciplinary Collaboration: The project brought together diverse talents from literature, cultural studies, music, and visual arts, exploring how A.I. can be integrated into human-technical collaborations. A.I. as a Creative Tool: Utilizing GPT-2 trained on pandemic narratives from the past 2500 years, unique text fragments were generated. These fragments served as a foundation for creating stories, illustrations, and musical compositions, showcasing A.I.'s role in inspiring collective creativity. Transmedial Approach: The work spanned multiple media formats. From written narratives to illustrations, musical adaptations, and a lecture performance in Oxford, the project demonstrated how A.I.-generated content could be transformed and enriched across different artistic disciplines. Ultimately, the project challenges the notion that A.I. can independently create art, instead highlighting its potential as a collaborative tool in future artistic processes. To explore more about the project methodology and findings, read the chapter dedicated to the project Sound of Contagion, authored by Wenzel Mehnert, Robert Laidlow, Chelsea Haith & Sara Laubscher, at page 97 in the volume Artificial Intelligence – Intelligent Art? Human-Machine Interaction and Creative Practice, DOI: 10.14361/9783839469224. Partners University of the Arts, Berlin, Germany University of Oxford, UK 5553 0 i-Portunus Houses – Kick-Start a Local Mobility Host Network for Artists & Cultural Professionals in AllCreative Europe Countries The i-Portunus Houses project, implemented on behalf of the European Commission by a consortium of three partners – the European Cultural Foundation (coordinator), MitOst, and Kultura Nova Foundation – was dedicated to testing and analysing diverse transnational mobility schemes for the cultural sector. Apart from granting support for local hosts from all Creative Europe countries for the mobility of artists and cultural professionals, the project also included research on mobility in culture and the design of policy recommendations. In the research, the mobility of artists and cultural professionals is understood as the temporary, cross-border travel of artists and cultural professionals with the purpose of creating, connecting, exploring and learning. The research was carried out by experts from different disciplines with Dea Vidović being the research leader. As a result of the aforementioned research, in 2022 Kultura Nova Foundation published a 4-volume publication. Each volume represents one of the research sections: (1) conceptual framework of mobility in culture; (2) the study on mobility in culture from the perspectives of artists, cultural professionals, hosts and funders; (3) an evaluation of i-Portunus Houses mobility grant scheme and (4) scenario for the future of mobility in culture. The research covers a wide range of topics related to mobility in culture, such as its participatory and networking dimension, its digital dimension and virtual mobility, as well as its green dimension. The culmination of the research, alongside extensive recommendations and action points for sustainable mobility, is Scenario for the Future which introduces a new concept of "slow mobility". 25121 2 The Responsible Research and Innovation Living Lab and The Prospects of Institutionalizing the Values of Openness and Mutual Responsiveness in Science and Democracy: The establishment of responsible innovation requires four key institutional changes. First, innovation must be value-driven. Second, an ethics of co-responsibility among stakeholders must be implemented. Third, innovation should be made directional and manageable. Fourth, market failures need to be addressed to facilitate necessary transformative changes, especially with regard to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This research project will take into account the evolution of Living Labs and various specialized Living Labs (e.g., urban labs, social labs, and responsible Living Labs) to assess to what extent they address these institutional requirements. On this basis, the concept of a new dedicated Living Lab: a Responsible Research and Innovation Lab for Engineering Practices will be introduced. Subsequently this dedicated Living Lab will be operationalised on a theme from the engineering sciences. We will consider innovations stemming from digital tech for Health issues, additive manufacturing or other engineering pratices. We will deploy participatory foresight, to enable a form of anticipatory governance of emerging new innovations.This dedicated ling lab is contextualised in a broader context of a deliberative democracy: Living Labs can be seen as spaces for Organisational Learning and Collective Experimentation:Living Labs: ‘real-life test and experimentation environments that foster co-creation and open innovation among the main actors of the Quadruple Helix Model, namely: Citizens, Governmental Organisations, Industrial organisations and Academia’ (ENoLL 2024)It operationalises an important feature of Responsible Research and Innovation: Making stakeholders co-responsible and mutually responsive to each other by engaging them in an open co-creation/ co-enquiry process. (among other on the basis of participatory foresight of emerging technologies and innovations)The idea of 'openess' and 'mutual reponsiveness' as values of actors and institutions will also be subject of analysis.Science and innovation can be better fostered in an open, democratic society than in other types of societies. The norm of civic participation in a ‘democracy’ is a lived ideal for citizens, just as the norm of ‘communalism’ is a lived ideal for the scientific community. Both norms presuppose the values of ‘openness’ and 'mutual responsiveness' among scientist and citizens.This highlights ‘openness’ not as a prescriptive norm but as a value of the institution of science. Simultaneously, ‘openness’ is also an institutional value of a democracy. However, science and democracy are dependent on the extent to which scientist and citizens engage on the basis of these norms. How can we best encourage and incentivise those? Project duration: 1-1-2023 till 1-4-2027 Project partners: RWTH Aachen University with team members Prof. dr. Stefan Boschen, Julia Backhaus and Dr. Dr.phil Rene von Schomberg 29993 0 1 2 1 ... 1 2 ... 2 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts NBA2King: This requires understanding market trends Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 1 0 0 MMOexp: Diablo 4 extends beyond its launch Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 2 0 0 MMOexp: FC 25 demands a decent processor Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 1 0 0 Slowly getting serious about solar geoengineering Blog February 21, 2023 29 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Exploring future dimensions and elements of contextual developments relevant for EU R&I policies / Exploring future dimensions and elements of contextual developments relevant for EU R&I policies Dana Wasserbacher Jan 28, 2022 The online workshop on October 18–19, 2021, was the first in a series of interactive encounters involving foresight experts and practitioners from both EU services and the Member States. It focussed on exploring future dimensions and elements of contextual developments that may have important repercussions for EU R&I policies in general, and the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe in particular. An overarching goal of the workshop, as well as the series of interactive meetings, was to provide initial impetus for a broad and in-depth discussion on the big picture and framework conditions for EU R&I policymaking. Context Scenarios Workshop The first day was dedicated to discussing scenario elements (see Figure 1 ) developed in a multi-level structure and prepared by the project team based on a review of existing scenarios from different institutions [1] . The first dimension divides dynamics that relate to progress in the EU project into positive (dynamic, resilient) and negative (declining, destabilised, feeble), while the second dimension locates them on a global scale in peaceful, antagonistic, or limited collaborative relationships. The first task in the workshop focussed on enriching the presented scenario elements with additional STEEP factors on different levels (national, EU, global) and on identifying challenges and opportunities arising from the scenario elements for Europe. Furthermore, we discussed contextual factors that would matter most for EU R&I policies and potential changes of the respective actor’s landscape, as well as (new) actors that would be likely to take on significant roles when considering the identified challenges and opportunities. This in-depth discussion served to assess the disruptive potential of possible developments and to identify highly disruptive factors and factors with high uncertainty (see Figure 2 ). The second day of the workshop started with a voting activity: participants cast their votes for the disruption cluster with the highest future relevance. The selected clusters entailed “Moving beyond the tipping point of climate change”, “Global Relations”, “(Getting closer to) Technological Singularity”, “War”, and “European Relations”. The disruptions subsumed in one of the five selected clusters were once more assessed within smaller breakout groups. The most relevant disruptions formed the core of a “futures wheel” through which we explored potential impact of the disruption in different societal domains (global and European perspectives, industry and market, society/communities/NGOs, education, research, innovation, first responders, media, health, values, and others, e.g., law and order) and over three different time horizons (0-5 years, 5-10 years, 10-20 years). At the end of the exercise, the factors that would drive the disruption under study were identified. The overall results of the workshop were summarised and condensed into a series of future narratives that present the different visions and developments as well as their disruptive potential and implications for society and especially for EU R&I policy making. You will be able to read through and comment on the developed future narratives in the upcoming weeks here ! We ask you for a little patience and in the meantime look forward to your ideas and discussing them further with you! Lastly, click on the image below to explore the full Workshop Canvas: Enjoy! Your Project Team from Futures4Europe.org [1] E.g., the OECD (2021) Global Scenarios 2035 , the JRC (2021) Scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040 , the EEA (2020/21) Context and Solution Scenarios for a sustainable Europe in 2050 (unpublished), the EC (2021) Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world (unpublished), the EC (2021) SAFIRE Scenarios , the EC (2021) Perspectives on the future of open science Scenarios , the H2020 (2021) TRIGGER Scenarios for Global Governance , the H2020 (2021) NewHoRRIzon Environmental Scenarios 2038 , EUA (2021) Pathways to the future Scenarios , or the RAND (2021) Future Scenarios to 2040 for the Research Council of Norway. All views presented in this site are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of national and European Institutions nor engage those in any manner. 16554 0 4 EU R&I policy Scenarios EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1538 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2086 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 474 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Futures of innovation and IP regulation > Futures of innovation and IP regulation Innovation is changing in several dimensions. First , the initially closed innovation processes are complemented by various forms of open innovation. Second , consequently, innovation is not only performed by companies, but other actors, like users or non-governmental organisations get involved. Third , the dominance of product innovation based on hardware components is not only complemented but also partly substituted by digital components including software. Finally , the initially envisaged impact of innovation on firms and countries; economic success has been significantly widened in its contribution to sustainable development. Consequently, the existing IP regime is challenged by both its processes and its products, the Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). We explore how these changes in several dimensions of innovation might influence the IP regimes, its processes, and products, including their implementation and impacts in the future. The project is one of eight foresight deep dives of the project 'European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe ' carried out by the Foresight on Demand consortium. 26500 0 2 EXTERNAL LINKS OUTPUTS Futures of innovation and intellectual property regulation_EU publication.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren IPR regulation Scenarios EU R&I policy Deep Dive MEET THE EXPERTS Totti Könnölä Foresight, Innovation & Sustainability View on LinkedIn Catalina Martinez View on LinkedIn Mirko Boehm View on LinkedIn Matthias Weber View on LinkedIn Knut Blind View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 0 0 0 FORESIGHT IN THE FIELD - Initiatives covering the Future of IPR In the ever-evolving landscape of intellectual property rights (IPR), the intersection with cutting-edge technologies and global challenges has become a focal point for policymakers, industry leaders, and scholars alike. This article provides a comprehensive exploration of past, current, and upcoming efforts to shape the future of Intellectual Property Rights Emma Coroler 0 0 0 From Sewing Machines to Fashion NFTs: Time Traveling through IPR in Creative Industries CREATIVE IPR traces the history of intellectual property rights in Europe to investigate how past battles and future challenges in IPR management for creative industries impact creators, businesses and consumers Giovanna Guiffrè & Valentina Malcotti 0 0 0 Copyright Harmony to Unite in Diversity ReCreating Europe re-thinks copyright codes and the management of creativity in the digital era by looking at the interplay between copyright, access to culture, and fair representation of creators and users. Giovanna Guiffrè & Valentina Malcotti 1 2 1 ... 1 2 ... 2 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg Luxembourg Strategy, the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks:1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbeing since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transitions since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finances since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html 7333 2 Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report 5955 0 Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2677 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ... 11 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Deep Dive: Transhumanist Revolutions > Deep Dive: Transhumanist Revolutions The twelve scenarios in this deep dive are informed by transhumanism, portraying futures in which the human condition – our bodies, functions, and lives – and the features of societies are fundamentally transformed by technology. Even though scenarios are built along the lines of particular scientific and/or technological advancements, the discussion spreads over sociotechnical ensembles and the re-conceptualization of the relationship between technology and society by 2040. The work leading to this report started with a horizon scanning exercise to identify a series of technological innovations and scientific breakthroughs that may be considered key factors towards re-engineering human nature. In parallel, the authors explored diverse narratives regarding the human condition and significance in the world, dreams and fears embodied in the so-called collective imaginary, echoing through myths and fantasies to literature, cinematography and the wider culture. At the intersection of these explorations, twelve topics were selected and further expanded into scenarios. They are not intended to cover the full spectrum of themes regarding human enhancement, but present a relevant ‘sample’ of potential future trajectories. We propose these narratives as exploratory scenarios, describing futures where both positive and negative consequences are palpable. They are not normative, outlininga vision of the future deemed desirable. We invite readers to regard them as devices for imagining the future and debating the future. They aim to nurture a reflection on the dynamics of change, future opportunities and potential threats, and in doing so they contribute to future preparedness. Three types of scenarios were developed: The first type describe futures where scientific and technological advancements enhance embodied experiences : Sensory augmentation: extending human senses beyond the natural limits and adding sensorial modalities which are not native to humans. Sensory and brain stimulation, psychedelic microdosing: inducing altered states of consciousness, for healing purposes or for fostering new perspectives on being human. Molecular therapies for delaying aging; and new artificial reproductive technologies allowing people to be fertile until much older age. The second type explore futures where human capabilities are extended by embodying non-biological means : a significant share of elderly people using exoskeletons for prolonging active life, for maintaining their mobility or as a form of assisted living; brain-computer interfaces leveraged in semi-automatized work environments, to improve learning outcomes, and to control smart devices; Brain to brain communication supporting cognitive and emotion sharing, leading to the creation of ‘hive minds’ covering multiple aspects of life. The third type focus on the simulation and replication of the human body and mind : Digital body twins allowing alert signals for disease prevention and the simulation of the short- and long-term effects of a person’s behavior on their health and body; Digital twins of the brain allowing testing hypotheses in cognitive science, in mental health studies, responses to different types of treatments; Digital immersive worlds – gaming/ fantasy worlds or ‘mirror worlds’ that are replicating real-life environments – hosting interactions among people and automated entities; Digital replicas of the deceased changing the socio-political understanding of grief; and Artificial agents with complex underlying computational procedures (including e.g. self-reflection, development of value system, affective computing) and sophisticated interfaces calling for new theoretical frameworks of consciousness. *** The twelve scenarios presented in the paper are part of the Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe project , which was conducted by Foresight on Demand Consortium on behalf of the European Commission ’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD) . 26083 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS OUTPUTS Transhumanist revolutions deep dive.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren EU R&I policy Scenarios Deep Dive Horizon Scanning Transhumanism MEET THE EXPERTS Bianca Dragomir View on LinkedIn Radu Gheorghiu View on LinkedIn Aureli SORIA-FRISCH View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Project Launches Report on R&I Actors and Foresight Activities in Europe The European foresight community has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. The newly published Eye of Europe report "Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe" provides an assessment of just that, namely the actors, preferred methodologies, success factors and bottlenecks for effective R&I foresight projects, as well as trends for future R&I foresight projects in Europe. Simon Winter 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Emerging Practices in Foresight for Research & Innovation policy Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 An Interview with Eye of Europe's Project Coordinator Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg Luxembourg Strategy, the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks:1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbeing since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transitions since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finances since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html 7333 2 Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report 5955 0 FUTURINNOV The FUTURINNOV project run by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches. This is done through activities to identify funding priorities, inform programme design, contribute to policy feedback, and develop institutional governance. The main objectives are to:• Provide short and medium-term future-oriented evidence-based advice on signals and trends of emerging technologies, breakthrough innovation, and investment patterns;• Support the development of long-term EIC strategic intelligence, grounded in anticipatory, collective, and hybrid methods, towards knowledge transfer and capacity building; and• Explore innovative anticipatory thinking and future-oriented methodologies to support EIC in its mission as a funding body and a knowledge- provider for policy design and implementation. The project started in the beginning of the 2024 and will run until February 2025. Outputs of the FUTURINNOV project will include three literature reviews identifying and analysing signals of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations as well as findings from horizon scanning workshops. Eyes on the Future: Volume 1 Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1 The report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making.The literature review(1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies,(2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report,(3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies(4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights(5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting. Read the reportRead some insights from the authors on the blog (Dis)Entangling the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics:quantum sensingquantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics modelsmaterials for quantumArtificial Intelligence for quantumerror correctionsolid-state scalabilityquantum for Artificial Intelligencequantum as a service – metacloudquantum computersFurthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility. Read the report 6451 0 Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2677 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ... 12 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts Crazy experiment shows humans can learn to echolocate like bats Blog June 28, 2022 9 0 0 Scientists create living human skin for robots Blog June 20, 2022 9 0 0 What if we live long, in a world of “old” people in good shape and without diseases? Blog June 16, 2022 7 0 0 What if we get very diverse human-technology configurations? Blog June 16, 2022 3 0 0 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Futures of using nature in rural and marine Europe in 2050: Policy implications / Futures of using nature in rural and marine Europe in 2050: Policy implications Totti Könnölä Aug 14, 2023 The immense social and technological evolution of the Anthropocene continues transforming the Earth’s surface and its dynamics through extensive (mis-)use of its resources, both on the land and in the sea. These challenges were addressed in the Deep Dive on rural and marine areas in Europe in 2050. We present here policy implications drafted based on the four scenarios developed. In Scenario A, European Civic Ecovillages pursue self-sufficiency and contribute to establishing a cooperative, locally oriented, caring economy restoring the ecosystem carrying capacities in land and sea. In Scenario B on Sustainable High-tech Europe, European businesses enjoy global leadership in regenerative and multi-functional high-tech solutions for energy, aquaculture and agriculture. In Scenario C on the United States of Europe, centrally planned Europe is divided between intensive use of land and sea and large conservation areas. Scenario D on European Permacrisis portrays Europe in a post-growth and politically scattered context that leads to low rates of innovation and fragmented use of land and sea. Please find the full blog post on the scenarios here . Each scenario depicts a different future in rural and marine Europe. None of the scenarios features a decisive solution to the global climate and biodiversity crises. Scenario A forcefully targets the resolution of the biodiversity crisis in Europe, by aligning human practices with nature, but provides little support to global climate and biodiversity crises. Scenario B proactively tackles the biodiversity crisis both in Europe and internationally but struggles with the fragmentation of efforts and with scaling up good practices and wider impact to curb the crisis. Scenarios C and D with intensive use of nature reduce biodiversity. Thanks to European-wide coordination Scenario C can protect vast areas with positive impacts to biodiversity, whereas Scenario D struggles with the major fragmentation of conservation efforts and its detrimental impact on biodiversity. Such challenges illustrate the importance of balanced approaches in developing both local and global solutions to climate and biodiversity crises. The subsequent further cross-cutting analysis pinpoints some threats and opportunities for rural and marine areas in Europe. This may provide a basis for further reflection on the possible role of R&I policy in Europe in the future and serve as inspiration when designing future R&I programmes in Europe. Economy and technology • In three of the scenarios big business plays a key role in determining what is scaled up but, in parallel, local communities try out solutions. Apart from the rest, in scenario A (European civic ecovillage) both the innovation and deployment are in local communities. R&I programmes searching for scale could well benefit from both dynamics. • All scenarios face the challenge of balancing sustainability and food affordability and security in different modalities of agriculture and aquaculture. The advances may well come from integrated approaches that also consider major shifts in diets and production. • Solving negative externalities of large-scale monoculture continues to be a relevant research stream, for instance via precision farming (see scenario C). Still, research and development is also needed on alternative farming practices that allow closing the loops and controlling the production, for instance, vertical farming, aquaponics and (semi)-closed recirculating water systems for aquaculture highlighted in scenarios A and B. • Multifunctional use of land and sea can provide win-win solutions, e.g. aquaponics, agrivoltaics, agroforestry, marine permaculture and floating PV panels, and thus strike a balance between different needs. This often represents major changes in practices; thus, the local (prosumer) communities need to be part of the process for their insights and buy-in (especially prevalent in scenarios A and B). Demographics, lifestyles and values • All the scenarios depict the future of rural and marine areas related to socio-ecological crises. Further research could aim to strengthen civic resilience. Could measures to increase crisis preparedness among individual and local communities be developed? • Research on the future of rural and marine areas and demographic changes could be useful given the above-mentioned uncertainties. For instance, water scarcity or other climate-related crises may induce major migrations also in Europe. • Fragmentation in rural and marine communities and planning can become a major concern. Even if good practices exist, fragmentation hampers their scaling up, while coordination may breed thriving active local communities. R&I programmes could provide opportunities for further mapping, showcasing and enhancing the mutual learning between good practices of local community-based organisations. • The livelihood of rural communities is to a greater or lesser degree entangled with urben spaces and how their inhabitants value rural communities. R&I can be involved in pursuing better connections between urban and rural, such as online farmers’ markets, remote working and the future evolution of rural infrastructure. Governance • The diffusion of innovations is crucial for sustainable rural and marine areas. In this respect, and where the framework conditions favour planning and encourage investment, it should be easier to scale up. R&I policy should aim to improve framework conditions, including the predictability of government R&I programmes. • Integrated spatial planning of urban and rural areas is a key issue. Space, whether land or sea, could be envisaged as an integrated territory defined by orography and natural geography, e.g. drainage basins, regional watersheds and coastal seabed (see the figure below), rather than socio-political boundaries. R&I policy instruments could be demarcated with such an integrated approach in mind; joint cross-national research institutes and infrastructure could be established. • The use of spaces could benefit from extending user rights. For instance, land ownership models in some rural areas could be replaced or complemented with public ownership and user rights, learning from the practices within the marine sector, with the state granting user rights in certain areas or through the designation of protected areas, excluding or revoking user rights previously in force. Experimentation, e.g. in regulatory sandboxes, could also rely on public sector innovation processes. Before experimentation in regulatory sandboxes can take place, there is a need for R&I efforts to detail how the user rights could be extended in different conditions and what would be the impacts to different stakeholders. • The scenarios related to diverse democratic practices. Policy labs on citizen participation in decisions on rural and marine areas could serve to connect citizens with these areas. Direct involvement of local communities in R&I programmes could be a means to avoid NIMBY effects and ensure their support. Environment • There are major risks in a patchy land and sea use that segments ecosystems and breaks up ecological corridors, diminishing the biodiversity and the resilience of nature. R&I programmes on integrated spatial planning of land and sea, also including for in-land waters, can pave the way towards more resilient, more circular water use and integrated management for addressing tensions between alternative uses of land and sea and in parallel ensuring sufficient size of protected areas. • The effects of monoculture and economic specialisation reducing societal and ecological resilience could be mitigated by concentrating them on limited high-intensity production areas and by scaling up regenerative alternative practices. Both these directions could be promoted via R&I instruments to experiment and learn about ecological and socio-economic implications. • Technology could play an important role in monitoring nature to understand it and the impacts of human actions. Multidisciplinary research on resilience in rural and marine areas could help increase preparedness, including integrated planning supported with biodiversity monitoring combining in-situ sensors and remote space technologies and advances in data analytics (AI) and construction of digital twins of integrated spaces for developing reliable future projections. Also, advances in guidance and toolkits could serve to improve the reliability of citizen science. • Regenerative ecosystem-based approaches and practices could strengthen synergies between nature restoration and production activities. R&I programmes could experiment scaling up such practices, and with how nature restoration and rewilding could be further connected to climate mitigation and climate adaptation. Final remarks This brief is the result of one of eight Deep Dive Foresight Studies in the project ‘European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe ’ conducted by the Foresight on Demand consortium for the European Commission. During the spring of 2023, an expert team identified factors of change and organised two scenario and one policy implications workshops also engaging experts from academia, business and public administration around Europe. The process was also supported by discussions in the Horizon Europe Foresight Network. The complete policy brief and further information about the project are available here . 20683 0 0 Oceans Coastal areas Land use EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1538 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2086 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 474 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Deepening Divisions / Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Deepening Divisions Duncan McLaren Aug 31, 2022 This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'deepening divisions' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments! Scenario dimensions Weak global governance; Unsustainable lifestyles; Open to risk-taking; Vigorous activism Demographics, economy and governance In 2040 Europe stands divided. Populist, secessionist governments are in power in Poland, Italy and France (amongst others). European institutions struggle to exercise power and influence. In the wider world relations with Russia remain uneasy following the division of Ukraine; China-US military clashes continue in the South China Sea as China accuses the US of funding and arming Tibetan separatists, and tensions escalate between the EU and the Pan-African Confederation over the continued death-toll amongst climate migrants seeking to cross the Mediterranean. Global climate governance is just one of the many casualties. In this world nationalist competition over resources dominates international relations, and free trade is a long-lost dream. European economies continue to falter as supply chains further fragment. Populist movements verging on fascism are in the ascendance in dozens of countries, while local territorial defence and independence movements have become violent in several cases. Populations are divided and polarised , with consumption unabated . Wealthy elites retreat into secure compounds and gated communities. And while some environmental activists are trying to build resilient self-sufficient eco-villages, others have embraced violence , especially in the face of authoritarian policing of protest and attacks on political freedoms. Real and imagined threats of climate migrants and refugees from Africa continue to dominate political discourse. In every country border controls are strengthened. Walls, fences and deportation programs proliferate. The Mediterranean and its coasts are more like a war zone than a holiday destination, with naval forces and drones deployed to deter crossings. But political myopia and nationalism infect climate policy – with more focus on local, exclusionary adaptation than mitigation. Populist movements combine ethno-nationalist prejudice with continued support for fossil fuel use – rhetorically described as cheap and patriotic . Impacts and risk areas Climate change is both a trigger and a consequence of fragmentation and deepening divisions. While biodiversity losses multiply as temperature rises reach 1.7 o C, climate scientists project temperatures rising further, beyond 3oC above pre-industrial levels. Impacts are already widely felt, not only in coastal communities and those affected by vanishing glaciers and melting permafrost, but more widely and especially in the form of prolonged heatwaves, massive wildfires and droughts during summers followed by autumn flooding. These conditions have devastated agricultural production and exacerbated pressures on electricity systems: droughts causing nuclear shutdowns due to lack of cooling water, whilst demands for energy rise with widespread use of air-conditioning. Energy and food prices have spiralled, fuelling food and energy poverty ; undermining livelihoods, harming health and wellbeing for many, and fragmenting communities. Rising prices have also fuelled populist anti-EU and anti-climate action sentiment. Public sentiment, powered by populist media is further polarised by more radical climate activism using cyberattacks, blockades and violence against property to attack fossil power stations, airports and other targets (including geoengineering research facilities). Most states deploy anti-terror powers against climate activists, and paramilitary responses (tacitly ignored by state authorities) including assassination and kidnapping of activists have spread from the extractive frontiers of the global South to some European countries. Practices and technologies Scientists and technologists have demonstrated most of the suite of new climate technologies anticipated in 2020, including new-generation nuclear fission, carbon capture and storage (CCS), green and blue hydrogen and ammonia production, CCS has been linked not only to industrial processes but also to bioenergy (BECCS) and capture of CO2 direct from the atmosphere (DACCS). But none of these technologies have reached scale as supply chains, social licence, and investment flows have all been disrupted and undermined by international and national conflicts. As a result, scientists are now widely and urgently advocating and researching more radical and controversial technological approaches including ocean fertilisation for carbon removal, and large-scale albedo modification through GM crops, stratospheric aerosol injection or space mirrors . Trials of some of these technologies have attracted billionaire philanthropy eager to scale up their application . In parallel, suspicions and conspiracy theories abound on social media, multiplied by hostile state disinformation, to the effect that the droughts and floods are in fact a product of such ‘greenfinger’ geoengineering (rather than the reason for such experiments). Life-styles and activism For the wealthy, lifestyles remain luxurious, and most citizens aspire to enjoy such high levels of consumption and mobility. Products with green and ‘sustainable’ labels are scarce and expensive, even though widely considered to be mainly greenwash . In our divided society though, anti-consumerist riots and looting, involving destruction of merchandise or property are not uncommon. Climate activism takes multiple forms. For some, climate grief is expressed through embrace of religious faiths, and some engage in non-violent protest such as hunger strikes. Conventional NGOs continue to lack influence in polarised political debates, and more radical forms of activism have proliferated including demonstrations and mass arrests, hacktivism and cyber-attacks, and even eco-terrorism , sabotage and bombing 17392 0 0 Scenarios Climate change Social confrontations Global governance EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1538 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2086 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 474 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > MEGATRENDS 2050. THE CHANGING WORLD: impacts in Portugal > MEGATRENDS 2050. THE CHANGING WORLD: impacts in Portugal The digital brochure "Megatrends 2050, Changing World: Impacts on Portugal - a Brief Introduction" is now available. This is a publication by the Planning and Foresight Services Network of the Public Administration (RePLAN), as part of the activities carried out by the Multisectoral Foresight Team. RePLAN is chaired by the Public Administration Planning, Policy and Foresight Competence Center (PlanAPP), in which the FCT participates. Duration of the study: The project was launched in June 2023 and will be concluded with the launch of the final report in April 2025. The document, available on the PlanAPP website, is a brief introduction to the 2050 Megatrends Report for Portugal, to be published by the end of year 2024. It presents, in a brief and preliminary way, the nine megatrends that are likely to shape the future of our country, with a general description and a list of the most relevant potential impacts: Worsening climate change; Growing pressure on natural resources; Diversifying and changing economic models; Diverging demographic trends; A more urban world; A more digital world; Accelerating technological development; A multipolar world and New challenges to democracy. The identification and description of megatrends for Portugal is a work in progress, based on a collaborative, systematic and open process. During this year, with the aim of producing a report and supporting the formulation of public policies, this process will be deepened with workshops, expert consultation and citizen participation. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. Complete list of the partner institutions: Coordinator: Centro de Competências de Planeamento, de Políticas e de Prospetiva da Administração Pública (PlanAPP) Co-coordinators: Direção-Geral de Política de Defesa Nacional (DGPDN) Secretaria-Geral do Ambiente (SGA) · Contributors: · Instituto Nacional de Administração I. P. (INA) · Direção-Geral da Política de Justiça (DGPJ) · Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais (GPEARI) · Instituto Português do Desporto e Juventude, I.P. (IPDJ) · Comissão para a Cidadania e a Igualdade de Género (CIG) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) · Direção-Geral de Política do Mar (DGPM) · Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência (DGEEC) · Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) · LNEG - Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia e do Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana. I.P. (IHRU). · Instituto da defesa Nacional (IDN) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Planeamento (GEP) do Ministério do Trabalho, Solidariedade e Segurança Social (MTSSS) 5182 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://www.planapp.gov.pt/introducao-as-megatendencias-2050/ OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren governance EU R&I policy MEET THE EXPERTS Daniel Ferreira View on LinkedIn Sandra Fernandes View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects MEGATRENDS 2050. THE CHANGING WORLD: impacts in Portugal The digital brochure "Megatrends 2050, Changing World: Impacts on Portugal - a Brief Introduction" is now available. This is a publication by the Planning and Foresight Services Network of the Public Administration (RePLAN), as part of the activities carried out by the Multisectoral Foresight Team. RePLAN is chaired by the Public Administration Planning, Policy and Foresight Competence Center (PlanAPP), in which the FCT participates. Duration of the study: The project was launched in June 2023 and will be concluded with the launch of the final report in April 2025. The document, available on the PlanAPP website, is a brief introduction to the 2050 Megatrends Report for Portugal, to be published by the end of year 2024. It presents, in a brief and preliminary way, the nine megatrends that are likely to shape the future of our country, with a general description and a list of the most relevant potential impacts: Worsening climate change; Growing pressure on natural resources; Diversifying and changing economic models; Diverging demographic trends; A more urban world; A more digital world; Accelerating technological development; A multipolar world and New challenges to democracy. The identification and description of megatrends for Portugal is a work in progress, based on a collaborative, systematic and open process. During this year, with the aim of producing a report and supporting the formulation of public policies, this process will be deepened with workshops, expert consultation and citizen participation. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. Complete list of the partner institutions: Coordinator: Centro de Competências de Planeamento, de Políticas e de Prospetiva da Administração Pública (PlanAPP) Co-coordinators: Direção-Geral de Política de Defesa Nacional (DGPDN) Secretaria-Geral do Ambiente (SGA) · Contributors: · Instituto Nacional de Administração I. P. (INA) · Direção-Geral da Política de Justiça (DGPJ) · Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais (GPEARI) · Instituto Português do Desporto e Juventude, I.P. (IPDJ) · Comissão para a Cidadania e a Igualdade de Género (CIG) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) · Direção-Geral de Política do Mar (DGPM) · Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência (DGEEC) · Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) · LNEG - Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia e do Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana. I.P. (IHRU). · Instituto da defesa Nacional (IDN) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Planeamento (GEP) do Ministério do Trabalho, Solidariedade e Segurança Social (MTSSS) 5182 0 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts NBA2King: This requires understanding market trends Blog September 4, 2024 1 0 0 MMOexp: Diablo 4 extends beyond its launch Blog September 4, 2024 2 0 0 MMOexp: FC 25 demands a decent processor Blog September 4, 2024 1 0 0 Slowly getting serious about solar geoengineering Blog February 21, 2023 29 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up