Search Results

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Stories from 2050 > Stories from 2050 The overall goal of this project is to support the further development of the vision of a Clean Planet 2050 and the implementation of the European Green Deal by creating and harvesting stories. ‘Stories from 2050’ is an exploratory project with the primary goal to enable its readers and policy-makers to imagine futures beyond the usual thinking. Through a series of participatory futures workshops and an open engagement platform at www.storiesfrom2050.com, we aimed to collect what activist communities, stakeholders, and citizens think, feel and say about our shared futures, with a focus on sustainability opportunities and challenges associated with the European Green Deal. The project aims to develop challenging stories that depict drivers of change, future challenges, consequences of failure and low-likelihood, high-impact 'wild card' events and present them in a form that will ease their use in policy-making processes. The first set of stories was developed during a six-month process where we invited individuals and communities from all over the world to imagine alternative futures of 2050. Therefore, we made a jump into 2050, unfolding a narrative of a fictional Space Mission. We’ve told the participants that our Earth had become uninhabitable and sent them on a journey to explore new planets. We defined those planets with particular terrains based on the elements of nature such as ‘Earth’, ‘Fire’, ‘Air’, ‘Water’ and ‘Life’ (knowing that life is an extension of the term ‘elements’). With a guided process, we’ve let participants imagine the systems and worldviews existing on those planets. From this first input, the project team created the Enriched Planet Narratives (see below). They were the guiding stories for the second workshop series, which were split into two parts. The first one was an expert session focusing on the transitional state between today and 2050. For the second one, we took a community-based approach of imagining fictional characters that would live on the imagined planets, and participants had to describe how they interacted with each other. To complete the stories, the project team then selected professional and creative story-writers who used the storylines built by the community as a source of inspiration. However, each writer had the freedom to interpret them and create their own version. The results of this process are the stories in our booklet. Moreover, the detailed approach of the complete development process and outputs of all workshops can be viewed here . 36775 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://explore.storiesfrom2050.com/ OUTPUTS STORIES FROM 2050.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren EU R&I policy Climate change Oceans Social responsibility MEET THE EXPERTS ​ View on LinkedIn Bianca Dragomir View on LinkedIn Totti Könnölä Foresight, Innovation & Sustainability View on LinkedIn Giovanna Guiffrè View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Project Launches Report on R&I Actors and Foresight Activities in Europe The European foresight community has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. The newly published Eye of Europe report "Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe" provides an assessment of just that, namely the actors, preferred methodologies, success factors and bottlenecks for effective R&I foresight projects, as well as trends for future R&I foresight projects in Europe. Simon Winter 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Emerging Practices in Foresight for Research & Innovation policy Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 An Interview with Eye of Europe's Project Coordinator Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2694 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 MEGATRENDS 2050. THE CHANGING WORLD: impacts in Portugal The digital brochure "Megatrends 2050, Changing World: Impacts on Portugal - a Brief Introduction" is now available. This is a publication by the Planning and Foresight Services Network of the Public Administration (RePLAN), as part of the activities carried out by the Multisectoral Foresight Team. RePLAN is chaired by the Public Administration Planning, Policy and Foresight Competence Center (PlanAPP), in which the FCT participates. Duration of the study: The project was launched in June 2023 and will be concluded with the launch of the final report in April 2025. The document, available on the PlanAPP website, is a brief introduction to the 2050 Megatrends Report for Portugal, to be published by the end of year 2024. It presents, in a brief and preliminary way, the nine megatrends that are likely to shape the future of our country, with a general description and a list of the most relevant potential impacts: Worsening climate change; Growing pressure on natural resources; Diversifying and changing economic models; Diverging demographic trends; A more urban world; A more digital world; Accelerating technological development; A multipolar world and New challenges to democracy. The identification and description of megatrends for Portugal is a work in progress, based on a collaborative, systematic and open process. During this year, with the aim of producing a report and supporting the formulation of public policies, this process will be deepened with workshops, expert consultation and citizen participation. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. Complete list of the partner institutions: Coordinator: Centro de Competências de Planeamento, de Políticas e de Prospetiva da Administração Pública (PlanAPP) Co-coordinators: Direção-Geral de Política de Defesa Nacional (DGPDN) Secretaria-Geral do Ambiente (SGA) · Contributors: · Instituto Nacional de Administração I. P. (INA) · Direção-Geral da Política de Justiça (DGPJ) · Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais (GPEARI) · Instituto Português do Desporto e Juventude, I.P. (IPDJ) · Comissão para a Cidadania e a Igualdade de Género (CIG) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) · Direção-Geral de Política do Mar (DGPM) · Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência (DGEEC) · Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) · LNEG - Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia e do Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana. I.P. (IHRU). · Instituto da defesa Nacional (IDN) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Planeamento (GEP) do Ministério do Trabalho, Solidariedade e Segurança Social (MTSSS) 5196 0 Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project. The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities: As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis. An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on the online platform www.futures4europe.eu. An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions. On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics: > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership > Global Commons > Transhumanist Revolutions Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments: > Social Confrontations > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities > The Future of Health A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days. Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy. This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. Partner organizations: Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) Institutul de Prospectiva (IP) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISINNOVA) Technopolis Group 4strat Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) Arctik Fraunhofer ISI About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 7066 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 8 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg > Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg Luxembourg Strategy , the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks: 1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbein g since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transition s since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finance s since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html 7350 0 2 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/eco2050.html Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://www.eipa.eu/epsa/institutionalising-strategic-foresight-and-economic-visioning-luxembourg-strategy-and-the-eco2050-vision-for-luxembourgs-economy-in-2050/ Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://paperjam.lu/article/explorer-futurs-possibles-pren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://gouvernement.lu/fr/actualites/agenda.gouv_luxstrategie%2Bfr%2Bactualites%2Barticle%2B2023%2Bpresentation-finale-eco2050.html Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://gouvernement.lu/en/actualites/toutes_actualites/communiques/2023/01-janvier/17-fayot-eco2050.html Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://gouvernement.lu/fr/actualites/toutes_actualites/communiques/2023/09-septembre/29-fayot-turmes-eco205 Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://www.futures4europe.eu/blogs/presentation-intermediaire-publique-de-la-vision-strategique-pour-leconomie-luxembourgeoise-en-20 OUTPUTS ECO2050 Vision_The Future of the Luxembourg Economy by 2050 in 10 Building Blocks 2023.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren ECO2050 Vision_The Future of the Luxembourg Economy by 2050_Full Report 2023.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren Vision ECO2050 L'avenir de l'économie du Luxembourg en 2050_Brochure en 10 Blocs 2023.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren Green manufacturing Economy Vision Net zero emissions Scenarios MEET THE EXPERTS Adrian Taylor View on LinkedIn Pascale Junker View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Connected Factories and their pathways for a circular economy A successful shift to a circular economy requires multidisciplinary skillsets that integrate both business and technology aspects. However, circular economy or sustainability practices are not often seen as competitive advantages for companies. The ConnectedFactories project focussed on devising potential pathways to digital manufacturing, including circular economy from a broader perspective. Laura Galante 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report 5955 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project. The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities: As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis. An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on the online platform www.futures4europe.eu. An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions. On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics: > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership > Global Commons > Transhumanist Revolutions Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments: > Social Confrontations > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities > The Future of Health A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days. Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy. This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. Partner organizations: Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) Institutul de Prospectiva (IP) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISINNOVA) Technopolis Group 4strat Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) Arctik Fraunhofer ISI About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 7066 0 4Growth project - Understanding the Market to Forecast Future Growth 4Growth will showcase the uptake of digital technologies and data through the “4Growth Visualisation Platform” that will combine powerful storytelling with advanced visualisations of the market. This 3-year Horizon Europe project, funded by the European Commission, brings together 13 partners with the aim of understanding where, how and to what extent digital technologies and data are being adopted within the agricultural and forestry sectors. The project started in January 2024 and will end in December 2026. Consortium members: 1 Wageningen University & Research, Netherlands (Coordinator) 2 EVENFLOW, Belgium (Technical Managers) 3 GEOPONIKO PANEPISTIMION ATHINON, Greece 4 FOODSCALE HUB GREECE, Greece 5 LE EUROPE LIMITED, Ireland 6 FUTURE IMPACTS, Germany 7 SIMBIOTICA SL, Spain 8 EV ILVO: EIGEN VERMOGEN VAN HET INSTITUUT VOOR LANDBOUW- EN VISSERIJONDERZOEK, Belgium 9 INSTITUTO NAVARRO DE TECNOLOGIAS E INFRAESTRUCTURAS AGROALIMENTRIAS, Spain 10 CENTRE TECHNIQUE INTERPROFESSIONNEL DES FRUITS ET LEGUMES, France 11 TEKNOLOGIAN TUTKIMUSKESKUS VTT OY, Finland 12 AgriFood Lithuania DIH, Lithuania 13 ARISTOTELIO PANEPISTIMIO THESSALONIKIS, Greece 7695 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ... 9 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts NBA2King: This requires understanding market trends Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 1 0 0 MMOexp: Diablo 4 extends beyond its launch Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 2 0 0 MMOexp: FC 25 demands a decent processor Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 1 0 0 Slowly getting serious about solar geoengineering Blog February 21, 2023 29 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Technological Fix / Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Technological Fix Totti Könnölä Aug 30, 2022 This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, Prof. Benjamin Sovacool, together with the other members of the expert team, are developing, among others, this 'technological fix' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments! Scenario dimensions Strong global governance; Sustainable lifestyles; Open to risk-taking; Weak activism Impacts and risk areas[1] Although Europe has banded together via the European Commission as well as coordination involving coalitions of individual countries, climate change continues to ravage the continent in 2040 as global warming has reached 2oC above pre-industrial levels. Storm surge and flooding have inundated large parts of the Netherlands and other low-lying parts of Western Europe, and the Arctic parts of Russia, Norway, Finland, and Sweden continually see numerous glacial lake outburst floods and the advanced melting of permafrost , some of which have incurred billions of dollars of damages, such as the famous 2029 avalanche and resulting flood that decimated large parts of Rundvassbreen, an outlet glacier of Blåmannsisen and one from Flatbreen, an outlet glacier of Jostedalsbreen, and the permanent closure of the Trans-Siberian railway. Severe drought has also affected crops severely with Greek olive farmers, French winemakers, and Spanish vegetable growers all seeing record high rates of crop losses, fires, and unemployment . Heat waves continue to constrain nuclear power generation in France and curtail hydroelectricity generation in Norway, Eastern Europe, and Iceland, due to unexpected melting of snowpack and seasonal alterations in river flow and precipitation patterns. For the first time ever, London faced a sever water shortage in 2039 due to unusually warm temperatures and the complete draining of the Thames River, which ran dry for four months. European leaders plan to meet in 2040 to discuss a “Common Treaty for Climate Refugees ,” estimated to surpass 100 million in 2035. The European Fuel Poverty Observatory also estimates than 40% of households across the continent are either in severe or chronic energy poverty. Practices and technologies[2] Europe remains a hub of hopeful innovation and technical fixes to these challenges, with scores of notable inventions patented and commercialized over the past two decades. French biologist Jean-Luc Picard famously developed his drought resistant treatment for agricultural production in 2031, one that entered into widespread use within the sector by 2035. Artificial meat and advancements in other cultured products have buttressed large changes in diet , with 40% of Western Europe now self-identifying as either vegetarian or vegan. Six of Europe’s largest offshore wind farms as well as seventeen nuclear power plants (expected to retire in the 2020s) were instead given license extensions and now power the four largest desalination facilities in the world, supplying water to one-third of continental Europe and (via a transboundary sharing agreement) Israel. The European Space Agency also committed €1 trillion to deploy an Interplanetary Sun Shield at the LaGrange Point between the Earth and Sun, with construction already occurring in high orbit and completion of a moon colony (which will provide materials, robotics, and resources for the Shield) expected to occur by 2042. The Sun Shield is competing with an American proposal to deploy a Dyson Dot also at the same La Grange point, with construction commencing in 2044. In the Mediterranean, localized deployment of cloud brightening and coastal afforestation have begun to regenerate and restore degraded seascapes and marine areas. Hydrogen has achieved widespread use within industry, and 98% of Europe’s passenger car fleet is now fully battery electric. Marine permaculture , especially seaweed farming, is widespread off the coast of Scotland, Ireland, Iceland and Greenland. Demographics, economy and governance[3] Europe remains a global leader in climate governance, surpassing the United States in 2028 as President of the World Bank and becoming the premier negotiator for climate mitigation thereafter. The landmark 2031 Treaty between the EU-China pledges to cut emissions by 90% by 2040, well before China’s Five-Year Plan had initially promised. In return, Europe now has 250 million Chinese migrants who work on green technology and clean industrial systems, notably solar energy, hydrogen, and batteries. Populations in Europe have therefore begun to rise, due to the influx of immigrants and positive spillover effects of innovation. Crowdsourcing business models have begun to flourish as well, especially among peer-to-peer networks and cooperatives , such as the newly formed Mondragon Energy Cooperative in 2039, which now controls 24% of European electricity supply across seven countries. Innovations have not diffused equally, however, with many youths and students, those having to rent rather than own their homes, and elderly still reliant on fossil fuels or in substandard housing. Life-styles and activism[4] Given the severity of highly visible impacts and risk areas, climate change has become a defining local, national, and regional political issue. The Green Party is now the largest single political coalition across Western Europe, following national victories in German, Denmark, and the UK (following a disastrous 20 years of Conservative leadership). Their “Green Vision for Europe” has wide appeal across all constituencies.The election of Prime Minister Greta Thunberg to preside over the European Commission has launched a new wave of youth climate activists, including the very influential “Net Zero Now!” organization which has more youth subscribers than the Girl Scouts and Boy Scouts combined.The 2037 Carbon Divestment Act , implemented as EC.1031.121, also restricts any financial institution from investing in fossil fuels, an act that resulted in the stranding of more than $110 trillion in fossil fuel assets around the world. [1] https://www.climatechangepost.com/netherlands/coastal-floods/ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/252101036_Glacier_Lake_Outburst_Floods_in_Norway_2001_-_2009 https://edition.cnn.com/videos/weather/2022/08/17/historic-drought-dries-europe-rivers-orig-aw.cnn https://21stcenturychallenges.org/the-thames-barrier/#:~:text=The%20barrier%20was%20originally%20designed,on%20protecting%20London%20from%20flooding https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/markets-and-consumers/energy-consumer-rights/energy-poverty_en#:~:text=guarantee%20our%20health.-,Energy%20poverty%20in%20the%20EU,the%20EU%20and%20its%20members [2] https://www.newstatesman.com/environment/food-farming/2022/06/world-drought-europes-farmers-heatwaves-climate https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/europe-over-20-now-flexitarian-number-of-vegans-doubles-according-to-new-study/#:~:text=1.,representing%203.2%25%20of%20the%20population . https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/quenching-worlds-thirst-grid-water-desalination#:~:text=Once%20only%20an%20issue%20in,connection%20to%20the%20electricity%20grid . https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032122001046 https://www.sams.ac.uk/facilities/seaweed-farms/ [3] https://ec.europa.eu/clima/news-your-voice/news/joint-press-communique-following-second-eu-china-high-level-environment-and-climate-dialogue-2021-10-10_en#:~:text=In%20a%20high%2Dlevel%20meeting,between%20China%20and%20the%20EU . https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8730528 https://www.energy-storage.news/the-three-things-the-us-needs-to-catch-up-with-europes-battery-gigafactory-charge/ https://www.mondragon-corporation.com/en/about-us/ [4] https://policy.greenparty.org.uk/eu.html https://www.unicef.org/stories/young-climate-activists-demand-action-inspire-hope https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/socialpolicy/2019/10/28/the-greta-generation-the-rise-of-youth-activism-for-climate-change/ https://gofossilfree.org/europe/ https://unfccc.int/news/divestment-movement-takes-step-forward-in-eu 15745 0 2 Scenarios Climate change Energy Geoengineering Hazards EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1553 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 489 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries > Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries The foresight exercise by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) from 2022 listed 46 emerging and disruptive technologies relevant for space, defence, and related civil industries, which are of strategic importance for the European Union (EU). Throughout the process, participants focused on four future critical technologies that deserve particular attention: (i) quantum communications and cryptography; (ii) space platform; (iii) integrated photonics; and (iv) nuclear micro-reactors. These future critical technologies bear a high level of impact and a high probability of future EU dependency on others. For each one, the report includes a series of recommendations to address risks, challenges and future dependencies. Beyond the listing and analysis of key technologies, the authors summarised 10 clusters of topics related to technology development and adoption: (i) geopolitics; (ii) cooperation; (iii) investment; (iv) market; (v) skills and knowledge; (vi) ethical issues; (vii) regulations and standards; (viii) development of technology building blocks; (ix) twin transition and security of assets; and (x) data and communications. These insights can support further research and policy developments. The report concludes with a detailed explanation of the methodology applied and the results of intermediary phases. Read the report 10756 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://policy-lab.ec.europa.eu/index_en OUTPUTS Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren Emerging technologies EU R&I policy Horizon Scanning MEET THE EXPERTS Joao Farinha View on LinkedIn Mayya Hristova View on LinkedIn Lucia Vesnic-Alujevic View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 With Big Tech comes Big (Ethical) Responsibility In a world pervaded by the rapid entrance and development of new technologies, the pace at which ethical concerns are addressed is not always in sync. TechEthos, a Horizon 2020 project, wants to facili-tate “ethics-by-design” in order to push forward ethical and societal values into the design and develop-ment of new and emerging technologies at the very beginning of the process. Laura Galante 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report 5955 0 FUTURINNOV The FUTURINNOV project run by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches. This is done through activities to identify funding priorities, inform programme design, contribute to policy feedback, and develop institutional governance. The main objectives are to:• Provide short and medium-term future-oriented evidence-based advice on signals and trends of emerging technologies, breakthrough innovation, and investment patterns;• Support the development of long-term EIC strategic intelligence, grounded in anticipatory, collective, and hybrid methods, towards knowledge transfer and capacity building; and• Explore innovative anticipatory thinking and future-oriented methodologies to support EIC in its mission as a funding body and a knowledge- provider for policy design and implementation. The project started in the beginning of the 2024 and will run until February 2025. Outputs of the FUTURINNOV project will include three literature reviews identifying and analysing signals of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations as well as findings from horizon scanning workshops. Eyes on the Future: Volume 1 Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1 The report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making.The literature review(1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies,(2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report,(3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies(4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights(5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting. Read the reportRead some insights from the authors on the blog (Dis)Entangling the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics:quantum sensingquantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics modelsmaterials for quantumArtificial Intelligence for quantumerror correctionsolid-state scalabilityquantum for Artificial Intelligencequantum as a service – metacloudquantum computersFurthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility. Read the report 6467 0 ANTICIPINNOV: Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation (ANTICIPINNOV) project is a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) with the European Innovation Council (EIC) 2023-2024 to strengthen strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. Learn more about the project from its's three different branches. Everybody is looking into the Future! A literature review of reports on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, present leading challenges in policy-making nowadays. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks, emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policy-making and preparedness. The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation trends and signals produced by public and private entities outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support innovation funding prioritisation. Other insights were extracted, namely those related with the scope of the EIC Programme Manager portfolios. Read the report See the lessons learned from the blog post Scanning deep tech horizons: Participatory collection and assessment of signals and trends The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction. The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives. The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC. Read the report Learn more about the process from a blog post Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation: Methods and Best Practices In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers. Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape technological change. In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning.Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop. Read the report 10033 0 Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries The foresight exercise by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) from 2022 listed 46 emerging and disruptive technologies relevant for space, defence, and related civil industries, which are of strategic importance for the European Union (EU). Throughout the process, participants focused on four future critical technologies that deserve particular attention: (i) quantum communications and cryptography; (ii) space platform; (iii) integrated photonics; and (iv) nuclear micro-reactors. These future critical technologies bear a high level of impact and a high probability of future EU dependency on others. For each one, the report includes a series of recommendations to address risks, challenges and future dependencies. Beyond the listing and analysis of key technologies, the authors summarised 10 clusters of topics related to technology development and adoption: (i) geopolitics; (ii) cooperation; (iii) investment; (iv) market; (v) skills and knowledge; (vi) ethical issues; (vii) regulations and standards; (viii) development of technology building blocks; (ix) twin transition and security of assets; and (x) data and communications.These insights can support further research and policy developments. The report concludes with a detailed explanation of the methodology applied and the results of intermediary phases. Read the report 10756 0 1 2 1 ... 1 2 ... 2 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Deepening Divisions / Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Deepening Divisions Duncan McLaren Aug 31, 2022 This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'deepening divisions' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments! Scenario dimensions Weak global governance; Unsustainable lifestyles; Open to risk-taking; Vigorous activism Demographics, economy and governance In 2040 Europe stands divided. Populist, secessionist governments are in power in Poland, Italy and France (amongst others). European institutions struggle to exercise power and influence. In the wider world relations with Russia remain uneasy following the division of Ukraine; China-US military clashes continue in the South China Sea as China accuses the US of funding and arming Tibetan separatists, and tensions escalate between the EU and the Pan-African Confederation over the continued death-toll amongst climate migrants seeking to cross the Mediterranean. Global climate governance is just one of the many casualties. In this world nationalist competition over resources dominates international relations, and free trade is a long-lost dream. European economies continue to falter as supply chains further fragment. Populist movements verging on fascism are in the ascendance in dozens of countries, while local territorial defence and independence movements have become violent in several cases. Populations are divided and polarised , with consumption unabated . Wealthy elites retreat into secure compounds and gated communities. And while some environmental activists are trying to build resilient self-sufficient eco-villages, others have embraced violence , especially in the face of authoritarian policing of protest and attacks on political freedoms. Real and imagined threats of climate migrants and refugees from Africa continue to dominate political discourse. In every country border controls are strengthened. Walls, fences and deportation programs proliferate. The Mediterranean and its coasts are more like a war zone than a holiday destination, with naval forces and drones deployed to deter crossings. But political myopia and nationalism infect climate policy – with more focus on local, exclusionary adaptation than mitigation. Populist movements combine ethno-nationalist prejudice with continued support for fossil fuel use – rhetorically described as cheap and patriotic . Impacts and risk areas Climate change is both a trigger and a consequence of fragmentation and deepening divisions. While biodiversity losses multiply as temperature rises reach 1.7 o C, climate scientists project temperatures rising further, beyond 3oC above pre-industrial levels. Impacts are already widely felt, not only in coastal communities and those affected by vanishing glaciers and melting permafrost, but more widely and especially in the form of prolonged heatwaves, massive wildfires and droughts during summers followed by autumn flooding. These conditions have devastated agricultural production and exacerbated pressures on electricity systems: droughts causing nuclear shutdowns due to lack of cooling water, whilst demands for energy rise with widespread use of air-conditioning. Energy and food prices have spiralled, fuelling food and energy poverty ; undermining livelihoods, harming health and wellbeing for many, and fragmenting communities. Rising prices have also fuelled populist anti-EU and anti-climate action sentiment. Public sentiment, powered by populist media is further polarised by more radical climate activism using cyberattacks, blockades and violence against property to attack fossil power stations, airports and other targets (including geoengineering research facilities). Most states deploy anti-terror powers against climate activists, and paramilitary responses (tacitly ignored by state authorities) including assassination and kidnapping of activists have spread from the extractive frontiers of the global South to some European countries. Practices and technologies Scientists and technologists have demonstrated most of the suite of new climate technologies anticipated in 2020, including new-generation nuclear fission, carbon capture and storage (CCS), green and blue hydrogen and ammonia production, CCS has been linked not only to industrial processes but also to bioenergy (BECCS) and capture of CO2 direct from the atmosphere (DACCS). But none of these technologies have reached scale as supply chains, social licence, and investment flows have all been disrupted and undermined by international and national conflicts. As a result, scientists are now widely and urgently advocating and researching more radical and controversial technological approaches including ocean fertilisation for carbon removal, and large-scale albedo modification through GM crops, stratospheric aerosol injection or space mirrors . Trials of some of these technologies have attracted billionaire philanthropy eager to scale up their application . In parallel, suspicions and conspiracy theories abound on social media, multiplied by hostile state disinformation, to the effect that the droughts and floods are in fact a product of such ‘greenfinger’ geoengineering (rather than the reason for such experiments). Life-styles and activism For the wealthy, lifestyles remain luxurious, and most citizens aspire to enjoy such high levels of consumption and mobility. Products with green and ‘sustainable’ labels are scarce and expensive, even though widely considered to be mainly greenwash . In our divided society though, anti-consumerist riots and looting, involving destruction of merchandise or property are not uncommon. Climate activism takes multiple forms. For some, climate grief is expressed through embrace of religious faiths, and some engage in non-violent protest such as hunger strikes. Conventional NGOs continue to lack influence in polarised political debates, and more radical forms of activism have proliferated including demonstrations and mass arrests, hacktivism and cyber-attacks, and even eco-terrorism , sabotage and bombing 17406 0 0 Scenarios Climate change Social confrontations Global governance EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1553 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 489 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe > Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project. The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities: As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis. An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on the online platform www.futures4europe.eu . An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions. On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest . Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics: > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership > Global Commons > Transhumanist Revolutions Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments: > Social Confrontations > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities > The Future of Health A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work . Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days. Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy. This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. Partner organizations: Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) Institutul de Prospectiva (IP) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISINNOVA) Technopolis Group 4strat Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) Arctik Fraunhofer ISI About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 7067 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://op.europa.eu/en/web/eu-law-and-publications/publication-detail/-/publication/7c3efc86-9a39-11ee-b164-01aa75ed71a1 OUTPUTS Foresight on Demand - Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren EU R&I policy Delphi Deep Dive Scenarios MEET THE EXPERTS Tanja Schindler View on LinkedIn Dana Wasserbacher View on LinkedIn Matthias Weber View on LinkedIn Attila Havas View on LinkedIn Radu Gheorghiu View on LinkedIn kerstin.cuhls Prof. Dr. View on LinkedIn Ulli Lorenz View on LinkedIn Susanne Giesecke View on LinkedIn Bianca Dragomir View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Project Launches Report on R&I Actors and Foresight Activities in Europe The European foresight community has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. The newly published Eye of Europe report "Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe" provides an assessment of just that, namely the actors, preferred methodologies, success factors and bottlenecks for effective R&I foresight projects, as well as trends for future R&I foresight projects in Europe. Simon Winter 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Emerging Practices in Foresight for Research & Innovation policy Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 An Interview with Eye of Europe's Project Coordinator Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2694 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 MEGATRENDS 2050. THE CHANGING WORLD: impacts in Portugal The digital brochure "Megatrends 2050, Changing World: Impacts on Portugal - a Brief Introduction" is now available. This is a publication by the Planning and Foresight Services Network of the Public Administration (RePLAN), as part of the activities carried out by the Multisectoral Foresight Team. RePLAN is chaired by the Public Administration Planning, Policy and Foresight Competence Center (PlanAPP), in which the FCT participates. Duration of the study: The project was launched in June 2023 and will be concluded with the launch of the final report in April 2025. The document, available on the PlanAPP website, is a brief introduction to the 2050 Megatrends Report for Portugal, to be published by the end of year 2024. It presents, in a brief and preliminary way, the nine megatrends that are likely to shape the future of our country, with a general description and a list of the most relevant potential impacts: Worsening climate change; Growing pressure on natural resources; Diversifying and changing economic models; Diverging demographic trends; A more urban world; A more digital world; Accelerating technological development; A multipolar world and New challenges to democracy. The identification and description of megatrends for Portugal is a work in progress, based on a collaborative, systematic and open process. During this year, with the aim of producing a report and supporting the formulation of public policies, this process will be deepened with workshops, expert consultation and citizen participation. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. Complete list of the partner institutions: Coordinator: Centro de Competências de Planeamento, de Políticas e de Prospetiva da Administração Pública (PlanAPP) Co-coordinators: Direção-Geral de Política de Defesa Nacional (DGPDN) Secretaria-Geral do Ambiente (SGA) · Contributors: · Instituto Nacional de Administração I. P. (INA) · Direção-Geral da Política de Justiça (DGPJ) · Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais (GPEARI) · Instituto Português do Desporto e Juventude, I.P. (IPDJ) · Comissão para a Cidadania e a Igualdade de Género (CIG) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) · Direção-Geral de Política do Mar (DGPM) · Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência (DGEEC) · Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) · LNEG - Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia e do Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana. I.P. (IHRU). · Instituto da defesa Nacional (IDN) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Planeamento (GEP) do Ministério do Trabalho, Solidariedade e Segurança Social (MTSSS) 5196 0 Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project. The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities: As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis. An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on the online platform www.futures4europe.eu. An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions. On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics: > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership > Global Commons > Transhumanist Revolutions Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments: > Social Confrontations > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities > The Future of Health A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days. Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy. This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. Partner organizations: Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) Institutul de Prospectiva (IP) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISINNOVA) Technopolis Group 4strat Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) Arctik Fraunhofer ISI About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 7067 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 8 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > EU Commission meets Doughnut Economics > EU Commission meets Doughnut Economics An updated story of how the European Commission is exploring ways to apply Doughnut Economics in policy processes 27424 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um www.doughnuteconomics.org OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Economy Sustainability MEET THE EXPERTS Futures4Europe Admin View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 1 0 Présentation intermédiaire publique de la vision stratégique pour l'économie luxembourgeoise en 2050 I very much enjoyed the Luxembourg Strategy event on 5 June 2023 presenting its draft vision for the Economy in 2050. Here is a country leading the way by setting out how to reach a zero-carbon future. Adrian Taylor 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg Luxembourg Strategy, the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks:1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbeing since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transitions since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finances since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html 7350 2 Rapid Exploration: The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activity This rapid exploration is part of the Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe project. As legal order evolves, crime evolves too. Being unbound by the rule of law, crime is a very innovative “sector”, in which innovation is driven by the incentive of high gains as rewards for taking some risks of legal consequences in case the crime is recognised as such and reported to law enforcement agencies. In the case of economic crimes, experts regularly refer to especially low detection and prosecution rates. Among other reasons this is attributable to three particularities being quite special to economic crime: Depending on the modus operandi used for commiting the crime, the victim(s) might not even be aware of the incident. In fear of e.g. losses of reputation and/or customers' trust that may in future cause revenues to decline, companies that have been victims are reluctant to report crimes to law enforcement agencies. Even if crimes are reported, there frequently is a mismatch between the criminal act itself and the offense reported. For example, a business might be aware that a computer has been stolen and reports this incident to the police while the actual target might not be the computer itself but the (sensitive) business information stored on it. About this topic The area of economic crime includes a multitude of quite diverse offenses. Thus, the first relevant question is: What ist the aim or target of the offense? Three main areas of economic crime can be distinguished: Financial crimes, such as blackmailing, embezzlement and tax evasion, often tied to attempts of cutting social security costs Cybercrime, which comprises a wide range of activities from digital scam of sensitive information and spam mails to manipulation of websites and thec onstruction of fake websites or profiles Manipulation of stock exchanges (either for economic gain or for creating geopolitical tensions) A second relevant question relates to who commits economic crime. Next to organised crime groups using criminal proceeds in the legitimate economy (e.g. money laundering, corrupting politicians and government officials, etc.), there are also legitimate businesses facilitating unlawful economic activities (e.g. accountants and lawyers advising criminals) or acting unlawfully (e.g. supporting companies in tax evasion). And there are novel and innovative economic activities that enter new terrain where no clear-cut legal rules exist yet (e.g. in the early days of crypto-currencies). Another question concerns responsibility for prevention as well as for prosecution. Is economic crime a relevant issue to policy-makers, especially for R&I policy-makers? And if not, who should assume responsibility for it (e.g. law enforcement agencies, private security agencies,...). For instance, data can be stolen either by internal perpetrator or external perpetrators. The responsibility for prevention is likely to be different in these cases. A related issue is to identify the causes of non-detection of these crimes, e.g. lack of legal and other experts. There are different types of “illegal earnings”, e.g. (i) criminal acts gaining a large amount of money at once, (ii) digitally receiving small amouts of money from many people over a longer period of time, unnoticed but evnatually amounting to a large sum for the criminals, (iii) a legal enterprises engaged in illegal/ criminal activities (on purpose or without noticing that this is illegal or a grey zone). As the world economy operates more and more through interconnected computerised transactions, new possibilities for intertwining criminal and legal economic activities open up as well as new opportunities for law enforcement.There is a view that the proceeds of crime can be tracked and removed, and thus the interpenetration of criminal markets and legal markets can be controlled. However, there is also a view that establishing the lawful origins of funds used in every transaction is impossible and even undesirable. What level of control is technically feasible and socially desirable? There are at least three types of S&T associated with tracking, managing and fighting crime. One is ICT related, from monitoring, analysing, tracking etc. An interesting issue is whether technological solutions to full tracability can be applied to money (e.g. those applied to products using chemicals)? A second is regulatory techniques for preventing “innovators” from moving outside the sphere of lawful activities, from going too far and entering a grey zone that is unregulated. The third is forensics: techniques of reconstituting what took place and thus attributing responsibility for crimes. Drivers and barriers Major drivers for crime are linked to motivation (high gains because of low perceived low risk, that is, the ‘cost-benefit calculation’ suggests that committing a certain crime is going to be profitable). Technological innovation in digitalisation is an essential precondition for further development of new and already existing crime potential in digital fields, from payment systems to crypto circumvention. We can distinguish roughly several types of motivation for crimes: the intrinsic motivation of engineers to research and innovate can be exploited by criminals; the (felt) marginalised individual or government that is searching for its niche to find extra income, even if it comes illegally; the politically motivated wish to spy on or threaten other countries. The primaeval motivations might be the wish for power, influence, and greed. There are also interesting technological developments emerging that might open up new avenues for criminal activity, often enabled by digitalisation of economic activities. For instance, digitally enabled human enhancement technologies open up possibilities for biohacking, and the ambition to better monitor supply and value chains may open doors to new forms of mis-using this kind of information. Fake profiles and ‘deep fakes” technologies can also be misused to commit digital crimes while staying anonymous on the internet. It seems to be a competition, a kind of race and mutual pushing and pulling between law-makers, police and criminals of who finds a new niche, that is, new opportunities with software, hardware or regulation, to occupy and exploit. On the side of law enforcement agencies, skills and motivation for long search or detection of crime in cyberspace are often missing. It is a matter of resources that are available and time that may be spent on detecting and fighting this kind of crime. One facilitating condition for criminal economic activities is the recent deregulation of financial markets. That opens up windows of opportunity for making money in a grey zone or illegally. In addition, the rate of innovation in digitalisation is so high that regulation can possibly be enacted only with a considerable delay - creativity in crime always leads to new means faster than the introduction of appropriate regulation As the complexity of these issues increases, there is a lack of experts to support law enforcement and we observe a skill mismatch in the technical, social, and legal personnel but also a lack of legal entities to follow up. People are more and more vulnerable to digital fraud and other kinds of crime in the virtual world as new possibilities are constantly emerging. However, if people do not use digital technologies (as a protective measure), they would be excluded from certain economic activities and social life forms. When there is two much security (e.g. with two or more factor authentication), technical hurdles are high and patience is needed. Futures What if criminals are ahead of lawful companies, regulatory bodies, law enforcement agencies, regulatory organisations and other decision-makers in digital innovations? What if criminals offer significantly higher “salaries” to experts, e.g. skilled personnel, or personnel for law-enforcement, personnel that is rare or has high specialisation? What if criminals become major R&D funders? What if they invest and their investment proceeds from illegal activities directly in R&I and people are dependent on this research? What if the full traceability of money poses a risk to creativity and innovation? What if the reliance on self-regulation facilitates economic misdemeanour? What if the world/ parts of our societies are threatened by crime and prosecution of crime digitally? What if the criminal elements control a large part of the economy? What if rogue states facilitate illegal activities, e.g. via cryptocurrencies? What if a large number of companies under financial pressure decide to resort to criminal “service providers” in specific fields, e.g. for waste disposal? 27869 0 Business Hippie Club A free platform for everyone to share and find ideas to make our world a better place. You can post your idea or project to find others to co-develop your concept and make a contribution for a more balanced social economy based on human values. 26767 1 EU Commission meets Doughnut Economics An updated story of how the European Commission is exploring ways to apply Doughnut Economics in policy processes 27423 0 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / S&T&I for 2050 Project Approach and Methodology / S&T&I for 2050 Project Approach and Methodology Klaus Kubeczko Oct 3, 2022 The project “S&T&I for 2050” is structured around five intertwined tasks: The conceptual base for the project was built on existing scientific literature, on feedback provided by workshops, experts, and EC stakeholders, and on quality assurance provided by three external key experts. The result of this task is a framework of three perspectives on ecosystem performance: Protecting and restoring ecosystems, Co-shaping socio-ecological systems, Caring within hybrid collectives. To identify current and emerging STI trends in Task 2, a series of mapping exercises that relied on quantitative methods were performed. Most importantly a Dynamic Argumentative Delphi was conducted. Six of the major thematic areas of STI trends were selected for advancing six case studies. The case studies conducted related to the following topics: Soil health, with the title “Soil to Soul” Land use, with the title “Land Use Futures” Systems of production and consumption, with the title “From Waste Management to Regenerative Economy” Data uses, with the title “Data as Representation” Rights of nature, with the title “Law for Nature” Developments in the micro- and nano-cosmos, with the title “Ecosystems and Micro-and Nano Cosmos” 20520 0 0 EU R&I policy Delphi Scenarios Horizon Scanning EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1553 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 489 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Global Commons: Definitions, concepts and perspectives – Towards a Taxonomy / Global Commons: Definitions, concepts and perspectives – Towards a Taxonomy Jennifer Harper Sep 26, 2022 Global commons have been traditionally defined as those parts of the planet that fall outside national jurisdictions and to which all nations have access. International law identifies four global commons, namely the High Seas, the Atmosphere, the Antarctica and the Outer Space (1). These resource domains are guided by the principle of the common heritage of mankind. Resources of interest or value to the welfare of the community of nations – such as tropical rain forests and biodiversity - have lately been included among the traditional set of global commons as well, while some define the global commons even more broadly, including science, education, information and peace. To incorporate the potential for overuse by some at the expense of others, they can also include the atmosphere, land, ocean, ice sheets, a stable climate and biodiversity (2). According to the Global Commons Alliance, there are currently two definitions of the global commons: One is based in geopolitics. In this definition the global commons are areas – and their potential economic resources – that lie beyond national jurisdiction: the atmosphere, the high seas, Antarctica and outer space. The second definition has its roots more in economics than geopolitics and relates to how shared resources can be overused by some at the expense of others, regardless of national jurisdiction. One of the main characteristics of global commons is that they have a value for humankind and the planet. In some cases they even play a crucial role in the survival of our species. More recently, cyberspace has also been regarded as meeting the definition of a global common. (Luk van Langenhove) The global commons, comprising the areas and resources beyond the sovereigny of any state, build upon the heritage of Grotius’s idea of mare liberum – an idea that aimed to preserve the freedom of access for the benefit of all (3). However, the old mare liberum idea digressed into ‘first come, first served’ advantages for industrialised countries. Especially at the initiative of developing countries, it has now been replaced by a new law of international cooperation and protection of natural wealth and resources beyond the limits of national jurisdiction. According to Vogler, global commons can be considered as “social constructs that overlay, interpret and allocate ‘brute’ physical facts such as the gravitational forces in space, marine organisms, or deep seabed features that exist independently of our observation (Searle, 1995). The designation of areas and resources as global commons is evidently related both to technological change and scarcity, and both have combined to shape current definitions of the commons problem. ….the list of candidates for global commons status continues to grow. Cyberspace or the ‘digital ecosystem’, intellectual property and crop genetic resources are all so described with attendant implications for governance and security. The defining characteristic of commons relates to the question of access. One shared characteristic of the global commons is their close association with scientific discovery and developing technological capability (mare liberum 1609, Antarctica 1958, outer space from 1957). There has been substantial recent interest in the global commons amongst the military and strategic studies communities (Jasper, 2010). Their paramount concern is, as ever, the maintenance of access to strategically significant parts of the global commons. Access is also at the heart of environmental framing of the commons, but here it is the consequences of an open access regime and associated tragedies of resource degradation, depletion or destruction that are usually highlighted. Towards a Taxonomy of Commons Drawing on the work of Susan Buck (4), this paper outlines a draft taxonomy of commons, distinguishing between local, international and global commons as well as common pool resources. ​ Physical Virtual Notes Local Commons Not exclusionary Traditional commons concept covering pasture, forests, rivers, rights of way, fishing , lakes, etc ​ ​ ​ International Commons Exclusionary Resource domains shared by more than one nation, such as agreed regimes for spaces bordering states e.g. estuaries, the Mediterranean Sea and Baltic Sea. Cyberspace – the network of information systems across which information is transmitted, shared and stored. Cyberspace depends on a range of physical assets that make up the internet, or satellite-based communications, or satellite networks for global positioning. These are all under the direct physical control of states and large corporations, and can readily be controlled (or terminated) by them. Berners Lee and others campaign for it to be recognized as a public good Global Commons Not exclusionary Resource domains to which all nations have legal right of access. 4 are UN recognized: Atmosphere, Outer space; Antarctica; High Seas They refer to human-made but widely accessible resources. S&T Knowledge (published) – the open science and open data movements aim to remove economic barriers to access but in principle published knowledge is a common resource. Large amounts of scientific knowledge are privately appropriated for their economic or strategic value. The geophysical commons can also to some extent be regulated - the oceans are subject to the Law of the Sea Treaty of 1982 (which established substantial Exclusive Economic Zones for countries), the stratosphere has been regulated, for example, by the Montreal Protocol. Common pool resources Not exclusionary Subtractable economically relevant resources managed under a property regime in which a legally defined user pool cannot be efficiently excluded from the resource domain and resources are shared among them. ​ ​ According to Susan Buck, commons are resource domains in which common pool resources are found. “Common pool resources are subtractable resources managed under a property regime in which a legally defined user pool cannot be efficiently excluded from the resource domain. International commons or global commons are very large resource domains that do not fall within the jurisdiction of any one country. International commons are resource domains shared by several nations, such as the Mediterranean Sea and Antarctica (although recent United Nations environmental treaties have affected the Antarctic regime so that it has some of the characteristics of a global commons). Global commons are resource domains to which all nations have legal access, such as outer space. The distinction between the two is important, especially because international commons are exclusionary while global commons are not. “ (Buck) References: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/untaskteam_undf/thinkpieces/24_thinkpiece_global_governance.pdf https://post.parliament.uk/environmental-stewardship-of-the-global-commons/ https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01436597.2016.1154441 Distinguishing between global commons, common pool resources and public goods https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781315086415/global-commons-susan-buck 22231 0 0 Global Commons EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1553 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 489 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Research4Futures Delphi survey – explore the results! / Research4Futures Delphi survey – explore the results! Bianca Dragomir Apr 11, 2023 How important is the EU Framework Programme for Europe’s ability to respond effectively to potential future disruptions that could unfold from now to 2040? What are the implications of those disruptions for the directions of EU research & innovation in the period 2025-2027? These are the questions posed by the Research4Futures Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey , carried out between 6th – 18th of December 2022 by Institutul de Prospectiva , which engaged almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond. The disruptions explored in the survey were drawn from recent foresight work performed by the Foresight on Demand consortium on behalf of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD), namely two projects: Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe , and project S&T&I FOR 2050. Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions . These projects delivered so-called foresight scenarios at the time horizon of 2040, but the scope, methodologies and final results were different. The case studies developed in the two projects are rather extensive texts, so for a better user experience in the Research4Futures survey, these contents were clustered and significantly condensed, resulting in eleven domains, each presented in a one-page text. In the survey, each domain page was structured under three sections: i) a brief description of the disruption(s) in the respective domain; where the disruptions encompass both crises and opportunities, hopes and fears; ii) a set of brief future scenarios that explore different ways the disruptions might unfold and their consequences, iii) a final section on implications for R&I, in light of the disruptions. The figure below showcases the way respondents assessed the importance of the EU Framework Programme for Europe’s ability to respond effectively to the potential future disruptions within each of the domains explored in the survey. Notably, respondents regard the EU Framework Programme as an important vector of the EU in addressing challenges and opportunities brought forth by future disruptions, casting an average score between 4 and 5 (on the scale from 1 to 5) with regards to all domains, with a minor exception. Second, contributors to the survey view the EU Framework Programme to be of utmost relevance and importance in connection to the future of Artificial intelligence; suggesting a significant role of research and innovation in improving AI applications and establishing ethical frameworks for AI developments, in shaping the nature of human–AI collaboration. The top R&I directions stemming from the survey are: AI improvements for specific applications The nature of AI and human intelligence AI in medical applications Understanding cooperation between humans and AGI systems Ethical standards, AI regulatory sandboxes To explore the full results of the Research4Futures survey we warmly invite you to consult the report below. Final Report_Research4Futures survey .pdf Download PDF • 1.79MB 21775 0 0 EU R&I policy Delphi EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1553 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 489 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS / STORIES / Seeds of change - by Lin Lune / Seeds of change - by Lin Lune 2021, ETH Zürich Seed Bank Cynthia Yu walks through rows and rows of shelving, a cuboid beehive with drawers the size of index cards, and whispers Latin taxonomy. She knows that she does not know how many species go extinct every day, and she knows that her unborn child will be named something special. 2030, ETH Zürich Seed Bank "Hey Cynthia, you should take the day off. Everyone's seen the news." Cynthia sheepishly glanced at the entrance of the community garden. "You have seen-" Cas began and then put away his phone. "Oh. And them too." A child hesitantly rounded the corner, clutching a packet of vacuum-sealed seeds with a tearful expression. "Yup," Cynthia said matter-of-factly. "Waterwheel, this is Cas. He's planting heirloom seeds right now, stuff you'll never see in the supermarket." Cas crouched down and added, "this variety of carrot here was first grown in Asia, and it's purple! When one seed bank gets in trouble, we all help out and share our seeds. Nothing is lost." Cynthia chuckled at her child gravitating towards a sprouting plot. "I didn't name you after an endangered plant so you can cry about it." 2038, Zürich Waterwheel woke up to a cacophony of notifications and was flashed back to their childhood when a seed bank was looted in a conflict, and their mom's phone rang for days. Waterwheel dived into their feed. A slightly famous local tree was regionally trending because the tree had been cut down just five hours ago when the city was sleeping--but the internet was awake and noticed an abrupt decapitation in the tree's digital sensorium. Waterwheel had gained a small but loyal following because of their citizen science project that tracked the tree's metabolism, and now the outraged community boosted them to fame. 29 Angry people shared their photos of the tree and chestnut birthday cakes. Waterwheel had personally roasted its chestnuts every fall. As Waterwheel read on, it became clear that their project was the main reason why the tree was marked for removal. The data had gained scientific attention when the tree was injured by construction last year, and the three years of healthy metabolism followed by eight months of deterioration made a tragic metaphor when visualized as a wave graph. Now with the ghost of the tree growing online in open source, Waterwheel consulted their mom to take advantage of the sudden fame. They would mourn by taking action. 2044, aboard the Blauer Himmel "...is something we humans understand at a subconscious level. I was lucky to grow up around plants, but anyone can understand that the trees speak through data; why are my roots compressed by flat boulders? Why have I been cut with iron? When you personally feel the Bäckeranlage Chestnut's melody get weaker and weaker and disappear overnight with not even a chance to react, well, people burst into tears. It is not some numbers on a graph anymore; it is real. It affects you. It unites you, and you do not destroy that which is beautiful." Waterwheel finished their talk and adjusted their XR setup for Q&A. The wind-powered passenger and cargo ship slowly but surely made its way across the Atlantic. In the last five years, Waterwheel has helped build a grassland in a harbour, a swamp in a city, lived on a giant sequoia for months, planted a wall of endangered dragon blood saplings in the path of war, and left enough sensors on all of those plants so a global audience can don an XR suit and be immersed in the beauty of interactive visualized data. Half an hour later, Waterwheel was discussing with an audience member about an experimental graveyard garden, part science and part art, that can track every molecule as a body returned to nature. 2047, Buckingham Palace Waterwheel stared at a bright yellow flower, likely non-native, definitely cultivated, and could not recall its name. Instead of letting their botany app identify it and then continuing the inspection of the Queen's final resting place--Waterwheel's grave garden design firm had scored the proposal to carry out the Queen's will of letting her death be meaningful for the environment--they stared at the flower and watched it slowly close up as the sunlight grew warmer. 30 Somewhere in a part of their mind not occupied with XR art or fear of ecosystem collapse, Waterwheel realized they were burnt out, by all things, on working with plants. They had saved countless trees from destruction by turning biological data into a story, but they had neglected to measure their own stress levels. They pinged an assistant and told her to distribute all their other projects to the junior designers. Waterwheel would end their career on a high note and was sure their audience could empathize with them because they were already empathizing with plants. 2050, Swiss Alps Specks of diverse alpine flowers dot a meadow as Waterwheel walks a dirt path with a scientific drone. They've settled in a rural farming commune that's part of a self-sufficient Europe spanning co-op network, living a slow life in a village of mostly young people that also feel the same. Every now and then, they tamper down the instinct to get involved with the board of directors. The dairy sheep and goats, all native breeds well suited to the rough alpine ecosystem, also exist as data points in the village network, an internet of life that was synonymous with art nowadays. Waterwheel was credited as a driving force of the humanization of big data, giving voice to plants and nature and making long-term life more valuable than short-term exploitation. The commune's infrastructure was subsidized by the government, and everything else is either from fellow co-ops, like the mushroom farm and the internet of life network, or rarely bought with money earned from selling artisanal cheese. Waterwheel advises and spectates at her firm now and is not familiar with the new DNA computing techniques that make up the bulk of their farm sensors, but it's alright. When they use the community XR lab to view the farm's own sensorium, it's not an overstimulating carnival of rainforest or a heavy weight on one's chest like thousand-year-old trees. The long sleep and short wakes of alpine flowers are just as unique and resilient. 33615 1 4 Comments Cancel Publish Login anhtuanhoang5 July 26, 2023 at 10:16:08 PM Edit Delete super 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation > Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation FAO’s Office of Innovation worked with partners on an FAO Chief Scientist initiative on Foresight on emerging agrifood technologies and innovations, aligned with the UN 2.0 process and the FOFA 2022: engaging all key actors of agricultural innovation systems in the foresight on emerging technologies and innovations to better prepare for alternative futures, feeding it into anticipatory action, and convening the global community for constructive dialogue and knowledge exchange. The aim was to support policymakers, investors and innovation actors in their approaches and decision-making. The study assesses a selection of technologies and innovations, which potentially could be of paramount importance in addressing agrifood challenges until 2050, as well as the most important trends and drivers that will influence the emergence of agrifood technologies and innovations and their triggers of change, including some regional aspects. The goal is also to build plausible future scenarios for the evolvement of the emerging technologies and innovations in the future with the time horizon of 2050 to inform future-oriented policymaking. The report is built with inputs from a multistakeholder Delphi survey and online workshops with experts. Alexandrova-Stefanova, N., Nosarzewski, K., Mroczek, Z.K., Audouin, S., Djamen, P., Kolos, N. & Wan, J. 2023. Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation – Global foresight synthesis report . Rome. FAO and Cirad. 7574 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en?details=cc8498en OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Scenarios Agriculture Horizon Scanning Food Delphi MEET THE EXPERTS Kacper Nosarzewski View on LinkedIn Norbert Kołos View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Shaping futures, story by story Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications A new policy brief explores alternative future outcomes for green skills and jobs in Europe 2050. Based on participatory workshops and a foresight deep dive, the policy brief presents four alternative scenarios and their implications for R&I policy. Mikkel Knudsen 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 6: The Futures of Big Tech in Europe The sixth Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop explored futures of Big Tech in Europe. Contemporary societies increasingly rely on Big Tech for different functions, such as work, communication, consumption, and self-expression. Laura Galante 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 6 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Future risks Project Decision makers are faced with a world characterised by increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. These conditions make it more difficult to assess risks when making strategic decisions or planning for the long-term. This project from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) EU Policy Lab starting 2023 presents a foresight approach to increase preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create. Foresight methods offer a way to consider and focus on risks that may be beyond the scope of traditional quantitative and qualitative risk assessment approaches. Several snapshots of the future depict different worlds that have undergone substantial changes as a consequence of emerging developments. An analysis of the risks inherent in the possible futures identified ten risk clusters that are relevant for decision makers, and mapped future developments that might lead to them.The same development pathways that could lead to risks can also create opportunities, and the study provides some examples. Decision makers face the challenge of mitigating the adverse effects of risks, while reaping the benefits of potential opportunities. This study also presents the results of a Delphi survey that evaluated the scope and severity of risks. Three of the 40 risks identified in this study were assessed to be potentially existential for humanity: 1) environmental degradation, 2) environmental disasters, and 3) loss of power by humans. The project started in 2023 and will run until 2024. Next in the development is an engagement tool for policymakers to push the boundaries of foresight on risks in their specific policy making domain. Stay tuned for its launch, later in autumn 2024! Download the Risks on the horizon report Read the blog post from the authors UN Summit of the Future: Risks on the horizon JRC hosted a panel discussion at the UN Summit of the Future on September 21st 2024 on how foresight can complement classical risk assessment methods. The United Nations will publish its first Global Risk Report in Autumn 2024. This follows the UNDRR UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2023. The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission published in June 2024 its report "Risks on the Horizon". In addition, the World Economic Forum published its Global Risk Report in January 2024. The panel gathers together experts behind these reports and speakers highlight how existing foresight methods can help to identify future risks, many of which are inter-generational, by using methods which do not rely on a risk already being known. PanellistsAyaka Suzuki, Director, Strategic Planning and Monitoring Unit, Executive Office of the Secretary-General, United Nations (UN)Lori Moore Merrell, U.S Fire Administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)Thomas Hemmelgarn, Head of Unit, EU Policy Lab, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (EC)Bryonie Guthrie, Foresight and Organizational Transformation, Strategic Intelligence, World Economic Forum (WEF)Timo Harakka, Member of Parliament, Vice Chairperson of the Committee for the Future, FinlandModeratorsTommi Asikainen, Joint Research Centre, European CommissionAnne-Katrin Bock, Joint Research Centre, European Commission Watch the recording of the event UN Web TV Read the insights from the blog 4696 0 Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg Luxembourg Strategy, the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks:1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbeing since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transitions since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finances since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html 7349 2 Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report 5955 0 FUTURINNOV The FUTURINNOV project run by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches. This is done through activities to identify funding priorities, inform programme design, contribute to policy feedback, and develop institutional governance. The main objectives are to:• Provide short and medium-term future-oriented evidence-based advice on signals and trends of emerging technologies, breakthrough innovation, and investment patterns;• Support the development of long-term EIC strategic intelligence, grounded in anticipatory, collective, and hybrid methods, towards knowledge transfer and capacity building; and• Explore innovative anticipatory thinking and future-oriented methodologies to support EIC in its mission as a funding body and a knowledge- provider for policy design and implementation. The project started in the beginning of the 2024 and will run until February 2025. Outputs of the FUTURINNOV project will include three literature reviews identifying and analysing signals of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations as well as findings from horizon scanning workshops. Eyes on the Future: Volume 1 Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1 The report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making.The literature review(1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies,(2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report,(3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies(4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights(5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting. Read the reportRead some insights from the authors on the blog (Dis)Entangling the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics:quantum sensingquantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics modelsmaterials for quantumArtificial Intelligence for quantumerror correctionsolid-state scalabilityquantum for Artificial Intelligencequantum as a service – metacloudquantum computersFurthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility. Read the report 6467 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... 10 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up