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THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / With Big Tech comes Big (Ethical) Responsibility / With Big Tech comes Big (Ethical) Responsibility Laura Galante Oct 6, 2023 In a world pervaded by the rapid entrance and development of new technologies, the pace at which ethical concerns are addressed is not always in sync. TechEthos, a Horizon 2020 project, wants to facili-tate “ethics-by-design” in order to push forward ethical and societal values into the design and develop-ment of new and emerging technologies at the very beginning of the process. TechEthos aims to produce ethical guidelines that can provide orientation for technology developers in the early stages of development. We spoke with project coordinator and innovation policy expert Eva Buchinger and foresight expert Wenzel Mehnert about their considerations on the outcomes and process of their project. Both are working at the Austrian Institute of Technology. How does strategic foresight fit into the work of the TechEthos project? Wenzel : Strategic foresight is about defining or creating knowledge to orientate actions in the present. If we want to develop innovation of new and emerging technologies responsibly, we need some kind of knowledge or guidelines to orientate our action. I think here TechEthos plays an important role as it creates those guidelines. Eva : Strategic foresight in the case of TechEthos contributes to ensuring high interest in ethical standards in the EU and beyond. Thus, we want to help reinforce the pivotal role of the European Union as an ethical trailblazer. Reconciling the needs of research and innovation and the concerns of society and reflecting them in ethics guidelines is essential for TechEthos’ strategic approach. Why should these vital concerns be at the forefront of technology design? Wenzel : New and emerging technologies always create new opportunities, such as generating wealth or general socio-economic benefits. However, they also present potential ethical challenges or unintended social consequences . In the context of disruptive technologies, there are always people who benefit from these technologies but also those who will lose. This is why we need to reflect on how to achieve a positive societal outcome. One way to do this is by constructing scenarios with stakeholders, thinking about positive visions. But often, these visions vary from one stakeholder to another. Tell us about your guidelines and to whom they are targeted. Eva : In TechEthos, we analyse existing ethical guidelines and frameworks and provide suggestions for their enhancement. We specifically focussed on guidelines related to TechEthos’ technologies - climate engineering, digital extend realities, neurotechnologies – and selected two guidelines per tech, which are in the process of enhancement that we are now finalising. Concerning target groups, TechEthos is a CSA (coordination and support action) and so it was clear from the beginning that we had to deliver orientation for EU policy makers. Another target group are research ethics bodies organised in institutions such as the European Federation of Academies of Sciences and Humanities (ALLEA) and the European Network of Research Ethics Committees (EUREC), both partners in TechEthos. However, our main target group are researchers from industry and academics. Wenzel : Another interesting target group are citizens. Because these technologies are still relatively new, but will impact society at large, citizens become crucial stakeholders. Therefore, it’s important to communicate these new and emerging technologies to citizen groups and also incorporate their concerns, which we have done in TechEthos. You have chosen to focus on three technologies: climate engineering, neurotechnologies, and extended reality. Why have you selected these technology families in particular? Eva : Our task during the first six months of the project was to select three technology families which raise ethical issues and have a high socioeconomic impact. Through a horizon scan we identified 150 technologies and narrowed them down to 3 with the involvement of 77 experts. Climate engineering, representing a branch of technologies from carbon dioxide removal to solar radiation management; digital extended reality, covering technologies related to the metaverse as well as natural language processing; and neurotechnologies, directly monitoring, assessing, and manipulating the brain’s function. During the development of this project, the emerging discussions on ChatGPT and the most recent UN conferences on climate change confirmed the relevance of TechEthos’ technology selection. What was the purpose of your TechEthos game? Wenzel : When engaging with citizens you need a low threshold activity that does not ask for too much knowledge or preparation. We created the TechEthos game that puts the players in the position of a fictitious Citizen World Council. The citizens were presented with one technology and had to decide which they want to support or not. The power of this game is that it really stimulates discussion right from the first card. At the end, we engaged with 330 participants, of which one third represented vulnerable groups. The transcripts of the conversations were then coded for “citizen values ”, which become important when addressing new emerging technologies, and which have been included in the guideline enhancement. What were some of the most striking concerns that key stakeholders had in devising these scenarios? Eva : One striking concern from the expert engagement in scenarios was that “technological fixes” must be balanced with fair social reforms. Citizens especially highlighted the values “equity”, “reliability” and “sustainability” against a media discourse that tends to utilise catchwords such as “cyborgs”, “green hydrogen” and “virtual reality”. Research ethics committees also emphasised the necessity of guidance documents for an ethics review based on pertinent principles. And it was also interesting to realise in the policy consultation that in the legal framing, the definitions for a legal treatment are sometimes very weak which makes implementation difficult. In an ideal world, how would you expect the future of emerging technologies to develop in the next 20 years? Eva : First of all, we have to take care that technology serves humanity and not vice versa. This has to be done by the interplay of various stakeholders; while we are witnessing how industry is shaping and paving the way, we have to take care that we implement proper regulation. In the next two decades we may expect technology driven disruptions around the world and in an ideal world this will become a win-win-win situation for producers, users, and nature on global scale. Wenzel : I hope that reflexive innovation becomes the new normal, and that involving relevant stakeholders becomes a paradigm in the development process of technologies. In TechEthos we aim at policy makers , but in an ideal world, there is an open involvement of all types of stakeholders into the technology development process. 15820 0 0 Ethics Emerging technologies Big Tech EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1575 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 505 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Harvesting Hope: Future-Proofing Plants for Bountiful 2050 Crop Yields / Harvesting Hope: Future-Proofing Plants for Bountiful 2050 Crop Yields Laura Galante May 4, 2023 Considering prevalent trends, such as population growth, increasing demand for animal protein, land use change, and resource scarcity, a blueprint for future crops may help prioritise sustainable and efficient agriculture practices, as well as improved food systems. CropBooster-P, funded under the Horizon 2020 Programme, is a project that aimed to find a solution to this question by looking into innovative crop-breeding technologies for improving climate adaptability, resource use efficiency, yield, and quality. You are standing in front of four doors that lead you into different realities for the year 2050. The first one guides you into a world in which high-quality food is sustainably harvested through innovative solutions, providing large volumes of feedstock for a thriving bioeconomy. The second door opens to a scenario in which people drive the preferences and concerns for health and agriculture, determining what farmers can grow, and businesses must exercise the utmost transparency in food production practices. The third door leads you to a bleak setting, in which European countries are struggling to meet basic food demand and technology reigns supreme in order to mitigate this state of emergency. And finally, through the fourth door you see a society that is extremely food-technology averse, polarised, and distrustfuly of its politicians. Food choice is scarce, and prices have become disproportionate. Which door is most likely to swing open to a concrete reality? The answer could be a combination of two or more of these. It is widely recognized that food production systems are expected to face significant pressure in the coming decades due to trends such as climate change, population growth, and unsustainable land use practices. Therefore, what are the ways in which crop productivity can best be equipped to resist and overcome these factors, in other words be made “future-proof”? Coordinated by René Klein Lankhorst, Senior Scientist and Programme Developer at the Plant Sciences Group of Wageningen University and Research, CropBooster-P was finalised at the end of 2022 and the resulting roadmap for how to improve crop yields in Europe was presented to the European Commission after seven years in the making. This roadmap lays out the design for a large pan-European consortium that aims to execute the research agenda over a period of 10 to 15 years. The new phase thereafter aims to ensure that this roadmap will be followed up and executed with support of the European Commission. Cropbooster-P used a combination of scenario-building methods, stakeholder engagement, and scientific research into the current state-of-the-art in the field. These methods were used to develop a roadmap presenting the different scenarios above for future-proofing crop plants, as well as including a plan for developing and implementing the suggested research. “In these scenarios, we are using all kinds of current trends and making an extrapolation of what direction the future will take,” Klein Lankhorst notes. “These four extreme scenarios remain in the boundaries of what will be possible. Of course, the real future will look like something in between.” Envisioning these different realities can help determine what kinds of crop improvements are allowed or needed. The scenarios should be highly unlikely, but not impossible, and they should not overlap with each other, but rather account for a wide range of possibilities. One of the key components of the project was engaging stakeholders in the conversation. Initially, plant scientists were involved in the development of these four scenarios, as well as other industry leaders from the food and plant industry. The results were then presented to the wider community, such as farmers, the breeding industry, consumers, and other scientists, who refined their strategies and the scenarios. This was done in workshops, surveys and in citizen juries , particularly to obtain citizens’ opinions on new breeding technologies , a highly controversial topic. Citizens’ juries consisted of a cross-section of the population in terms of age, gender, education, and attitude levels towards the technology. Klein Lankhorst stresses that even when opinions initially differ on a subject, new viewpoints can always be formed. “At the beginning, the tendency was that people were against the use of new breeding technologies, but after two days of intense discussion, they were more prone to agreeing to their effectiveness under certain conditions, such as that they are safe, affordable, well-regulated, and only used in situations highly relevant to society at large.” The exercise showed that involving the broader society in complex, scientific questions by explaining the subject thoroughly, weighing the pros and cons, and leaving space for independent judgment, it is possible to come to well-informed opinions that may be different to initial preconceptions. With a view towards 2050, Klein Lankhorst wonders if we will manage to increase productivity to feed a global population and if we will do this without disrupting our natural ecosystem. In this sense, foresight can help to approach concerns and action points for ecosystem degradation early on, such as employing sustainable farming, selecting climate-adaptable crops, and increasing crop resource use efficiency. “It’s really important to identify these critical action points, what is important to do in the future, but also to try to find early indicators, to see whether we are heading into that kind of future.” However, there are challenges, including the divergent time scales between policymaking and the development of biological solutions. While politicians plan for short-term mandates, plant breeding technologies and cycles take at least 20 to 30 years to develop. “I tell politicians we have to start now to solve this problem by 2050. What they define as a problem is not one we can solve in a current mandate period.” Klein Lankhorst envisions a scenario that combines ecological farming with high-tech model farming in order to increase crop yields by 2050. Ecological farming makes use of methods that promote soil health while minimising the use of synthetic inputs such as pesticides and fertilisers, while high-tech model farming integrates cutting-edge technologies and data analytics to inform decision-making. Combining the two would leverage the power of technology to create more sustainable and efficient farming systems. However, Klein Lankhorst is concerned that policymakers think along either one or the other solution. ”I would really like for there to be a vision that could integrate things,” He hopes. “that these systems are not antagonists but can support each other and can be developed in synergy.” In this way, it could be possible to increase productivity on existing agricultural grounds without touching rainforests and biodiversity. “The lesson is that for anything that you propose, technologically or otherwise, it’s important to involve society and consider the pros and the cons and developing products that benefit consumers directly. I am for using all available technologies, but we need to involve all of society to explain why are doing this and why it is so important.” This is an article from the Horizon Futures Watch Newsletter (Issue I, May 2023) presented by Foresight on Demand 17744 0 0 Citizen Engagement Agriculture Food EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1575 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 505 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Mutual Learning Exercise (MLE) on R&I Foresight > Mutual Learning Exercise (MLE) on R&I Foresight The purpose of the MLE is to facilitate the exchange of information, experiences and lessons learnt in the practice of R&I foresight across EU and Associated Countries, and to contribute to the development of an impactful R&I foresight community as an important element of ERA. It promotes improvements in R&I foresight across participating countries through identification and propagation of good practices in institutionalising foresight capability, in carrying out foresight projects and in using foresight for R&I policy purposes. The MLE also strengthens the European foresight community in R&I policy and the capacity of MS and AC to engage in foresight and R&I policy planning and to co-create future EU Research Framework Programmes. This MLE constitutes an opportunity to take stock of current or planned policies and good practices at Member State level and beyond and to share experience among policy-makers and national authorities on the use of foresight in the R&I domain as well as the potential of science and research to provide foresight for other policies. 31642 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/statistics/policy-support-facility/psf-challenge/mutual-learning-exercise-mle-ri-foresight OUTPUTS Institutionalising foresight capability&creating foresight communities in the R&I system.p ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren MLE_R&I Foresight_topics and scheduled meetings.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren MLE_R&I Foresight-An Introduction to the Current State of Play.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren EU R&I policy Mutual Learning Exercise MEET THE EXPERTS Futures4Europe Admin View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Project Launches Report on R&I Actors and Foresight Activities in Europe The European foresight community has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. The newly published Eye of Europe report "Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe" provides an assessment of just that, namely the actors, preferred methodologies, success factors and bottlenecks for effective R&I foresight projects, as well as trends for future R&I foresight projects in Europe. Simon Winter 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Emerging Practices in Foresight for Research & Innovation policy Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 An Interview with Eye of Europe's Project Coordinator Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2720 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 MEGATRENDS 2050. THE CHANGING WORLD: impacts in Portugal The digital brochure "Megatrends 2050, Changing World: Impacts on Portugal - a Brief Introduction" is now available. This is a publication by the Planning and Foresight Services Network of the Public Administration (RePLAN), as part of the activities carried out by the Multisectoral Foresight Team. RePLAN is chaired by the Public Administration Planning, Policy and Foresight Competence Center (PlanAPP), in which the FCT participates. Duration of the study: The project was launched in June 2023 and will be concluded with the launch of the final report in April 2025. The document, available on the PlanAPP website, is a brief introduction to the 2050 Megatrends Report for Portugal, to be published by the end of year 2024. It presents, in a brief and preliminary way, the nine megatrends that are likely to shape the future of our country, with a general description and a list of the most relevant potential impacts: Worsening climate change; Growing pressure on natural resources; Diversifying and changing economic models; Diverging demographic trends; A more urban world; A more digital world; Accelerating technological development; A multipolar world and New challenges to democracy. The identification and description of megatrends for Portugal is a work in progress, based on a collaborative, systematic and open process. During this year, with the aim of producing a report and supporting the formulation of public policies, this process will be deepened with workshops, expert consultation and citizen participation. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. Complete list of the partner institutions: Coordinator: Centro de Competências de Planeamento, de Políticas e de Prospetiva da Administração Pública (PlanAPP) Co-coordinators: Direção-Geral de Política de Defesa Nacional (DGPDN) Secretaria-Geral do Ambiente (SGA) · Contributors: · Instituto Nacional de Administração I. P. (INA) · Direção-Geral da Política de Justiça (DGPJ) · Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais (GPEARI) · Instituto Português do Desporto e Juventude, I.P. (IPDJ) · Comissão para a Cidadania e a Igualdade de Género (CIG) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) · Direção-Geral de Política do Mar (DGPM) · Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência (DGEEC) · Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) · LNEG - Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia e do Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana. I.P. (IHRU). · Instituto da defesa Nacional (IDN) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Planeamento (GEP) do Ministério do Trabalho, Solidariedade e Segurança Social (MTSSS) 5219 0 Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project. The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities: As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis. An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on the online platform www.futures4europe.eu. An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions. On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics: > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership > Global Commons > Transhumanist Revolutions Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments: > Social Confrontations > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities > The Future of Health A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days. Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy. This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. Partner organizations: Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) Institutul de Prospectiva (IP) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISINNOVA) Technopolis Group 4strat Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) Arctik Fraunhofer ISI About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 7087 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 8 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Deep Dive: The emergence of global commons: A new opportunity for science, business, and governance > Deep Dive: The emergence of global commons: A new opportunity for science, business, and governance This deep dive is part of the Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe project . The concept of the global commons refers to resource domains that fall outside national jurisdiction, to which all have access, including high seas, airspace, outer space, and cyberspace. Given the growing significance of these domains and related resources for states and other global and local players across a range of purposes, defining the concept of the global commons has become more complex. The Global Commons Alliance network of concerned organisations refers to two definitions of the concept. The first is based on geopolitics, where the global commons are areas whose potential economic resources lie beyond national jurisdiction: the atmosphere, the high seas, Antarctica, and outer space. The second definition has its roots more in economics and how shared resources can be overused by some at the expense of others, regardless of national jurisdiction. The strategic access and use of resource domains for military/commercial purposes put pressure on their status. Recent geopolitical developments highlight the need for exploring appropriate forms of global governance or stewardship to ensure responsible (sustainable) management to benefit present and future generations. About this topic This deep dive aims to address the following questions: What constitutes a global commons? How do global commons differ? How is the concept of global commons likely to evolve up to 2040? Adapting a taxonomy of global commons for the emerging geopolitical, environmental, and economic context. What are the main emerging disruptors of global commons up to 2040? What could change and upset established global commons regimes? How can laws be introduced and implemented in emerging global commons? The emphasis is on geopolitics and how legal frameworks can survive technological change. How can innovation reinforce the commons? How is the economics of common property evolving (from Hardin's very influential work to the massive critique of Hardin by Elinor Ostrom)? linking to major policy debates such as privatisation. Can Ostrom’s approach be scaled up to the level of states? and extended to the common property of the atmosphere or oceans? What would be necessary for such a large-scale negotiation process? How can we govern the commons as a different type of ownership? The emergence of global commons-orientation in innovation ? In particular mission-oriented innovation. Exploring the rights and personality of ecosystems and other entities as right holders. Ecological services as transversal. How can we make the global commons work? - the need for cooperative behaviour if global commons and sustainability are to be achieved. Multilateralism 2.0. and emerging role of science diplomacy up to 2040. Ukraine war as an epochal war: the dangers of the war (state of permanent cold war) for acting seriously on the global commons. Potential split with China and new hegemonies in Africa (e.g Belt and Road debt). The aim is to identify cross impacts of the global commons areas and key drivers. 28286 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS OUTPUTS Deep Dive Global Commons_Final report.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren EU R&I policy Global Commons Deep Dive Scenarios MEET THE EXPERTS kerstin.cuhls Prof. Dr. View on LinkedIn Luk Van Langenhove View on LinkedIn Philine Warnke View on LinkedIn Susanne Giesecke View on LinkedIn Luke Georghiou View on LinkedIn cristianocagnin View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Project Launches Report on R&I Actors and Foresight Activities in Europe The European foresight community has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. The newly published Eye of Europe report "Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe" provides an assessment of just that, namely the actors, preferred methodologies, success factors and bottlenecks for effective R&I foresight projects, as well as trends for future R&I foresight projects in Europe. Simon Winter 0 0 0 Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Emerging Practices in Foresight for Research & Innovation policy Bianca Dragomir 0 0 0 An Interview with Eye of Europe's Project Coordinator Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future. Laura Galante 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Vision ECO2050: The Future of the Economy by 2050, following the example of Luxembourg Luxembourg Strategy, the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks:1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbeing since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transitions since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finances since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html 7379 2 Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report 5955 0 Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2720 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ... 11 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts NBA2King: This requires understanding market trends Le Aventurine September 4, 2024 1 0 0 What if there will be a return to multilateralism as a global governance principle? Blog June 16, 2022 5 0 0 What if knowledge, space, the sun, the sea, energy, oil, lithium, uranium, vaccines, microbes etc., became recognised as “global commons”? Blog June 16, 2022 8 0 0 What if there is “fair” access to resources (for countries, social groups) and younger generations can influence global governance? Blog June 16, 2022 4 0 0 1 2 1 ... 1 2 ... 2 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries > Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries The foresight exercise by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) from 2022 listed 46 emerging and disruptive technologies relevant for space, defence, and related civil industries, which are of strategic importance for the European Union (EU). Throughout the process, participants focused on four future critical technologies that deserve particular attention: (i) quantum communications and cryptography; (ii) space platform; (iii) integrated photonics; and (iv) nuclear micro-reactors. These future critical technologies bear a high level of impact and a high probability of future EU dependency on others. For each one, the report includes a series of recommendations to address risks, challenges and future dependencies. Beyond the listing and analysis of key technologies, the authors summarised 10 clusters of topics related to technology development and adoption: (i) geopolitics; (ii) cooperation; (iii) investment; (iv) market; (v) skills and knowledge; (vi) ethical issues; (vii) regulations and standards; (viii) development of technology building blocks; (ix) twin transition and security of assets; and (x) data and communications. These insights can support further research and policy developments. The report concludes with a detailed explanation of the methodology applied and the results of intermediary phases. Read the report 10783 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://policy-lab.ec.europa.eu/index_en OUTPUTS Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren Emerging technologies EU R&I policy Horizon Scanning MEET THE EXPERTS Joao Farinha View on LinkedIn Mayya Hristova View on LinkedIn Lucia Vesnic-Alujevic View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 With Big Tech comes Big (Ethical) Responsibility In a world pervaded by the rapid entrance and development of new technologies, the pace at which ethical concerns are addressed is not always in sync. TechEthos, a Horizon 2020 project, wants to facili-tate “ethics-by-design” in order to push forward ethical and societal values into the design and develop-ment of new and emerging technologies at the very beginning of the process. Laura Galante 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Suppressing indoor pathogen transmission: A Technology Foresight study Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report 5955 0 FUTURINNOV The FUTURINNOV project run by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches. This is done through activities to identify funding priorities, inform programme design, contribute to policy feedback, and develop institutional governance. The main objectives are to:• Provide short and medium-term future-oriented evidence-based advice on signals and trends of emerging technologies, breakthrough innovation, and investment patterns;• Support the development of long-term EIC strategic intelligence, grounded in anticipatory, collective, and hybrid methods, towards knowledge transfer and capacity building; and• Explore innovative anticipatory thinking and future-oriented methodologies to support EIC in its mission as a funding body and a knowledge- provider for policy design and implementation. The project started in the beginning of the 2024 and will run until February 2025. Outputs of the FUTURINNOV project will include three literature reviews identifying and analysing signals of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations as well as findings from horizon scanning workshops. Eyes on the Future: Volume 1 Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1 The report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making.The literature review(1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies,(2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report,(3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies(4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights(5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting. Read the reportRead some insights from the authors on the blog (Dis)Entangling the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics:quantum sensingquantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics modelsmaterials for quantumArtificial Intelligence for quantumerror correctionsolid-state scalabilityquantum for Artificial Intelligencequantum as a service – metacloudquantum computersFurthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility. Read the report 6492 0 Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2720 0 Strategic Foresight in the Western Balkans: Recovery on the Horizon The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021. 5284 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... 10 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Addressing underlying assumptions: Tips and Tricks on Horizon Scanning / Addressing underlying assumptions: Tips and Tricks on Horizon Scanning Emma Coroler Oct 6, 2023 The 'Horizon Scanning – Tips and Tricks.' publication provides an insightful step-by-step support on how to run an effective horizon scan - and how to address underlying biases while doing so. On 16 August 2023, the European Environment Agency (EEA) published the practical guide 'Horizon Scanning – Tips and Tricks.' This publication is produced by the European Environment Information and Observation Network (EIONET), which is a partnership network of the EEA involving 38 cooperating countries. Working closely with the EEA, EIONET is responsible for collecting and developing data, knowledge, and advice for policymakers regarding Europe's environment. The guide offers step-by-step support on how to frame, run, analyse, and communicate the results of a systematic horizon scan for practitioners with different professional backgrounds and levels of experience. It presents a practical methodology structured into four key steps: Signal Spotting, Signal Scanning, Sense Making and Communication. The publication was designed with the aim of enhancing and developing the capabilities of the 38 countries within the EIONET Network to conduct foresight exercises, particularly horizon scanning. According to Richard Filcak, Head of Group Systems, Foresight, and SOER at the European Environment Agency: “After a couple of years of experience with horizon scanning, we had the feeling that we had a lot of things to share. This publication was an attempt to systematically bring together bits and pieces of information, practices and tips and tricks.” While the guide's primary focus remains directed at environmental stakeholders, its scope goes beyond just the EIONET Network, as it may also be valuable to individuals and organisations outside the network that specialise in foresight practices. This publication assumes greater practical significance amid a rising demand for foresight, fuelled in part by the European Commission's commitment to incorporate foresight methodologies into policy formulation and response strategies. The guide also highlights the importance of addressing cognitive biases and underlying assumptions in the process of Horizon Scanning. These biases and assumptions wield significant influence over one's capacity to detect weak signals, navigate future possibilities, assess the present, and interpret the past. Filcak noted that the effectiveness of Horizon Scanning is also closely tied to the diversity and inclusivity of the expert group involved. A more diverse group of experts can broaden perspectives and consider various angles, thus breaking silo thinking. As Filcak highlights, “Sometimes, it takes just one person within the group to introduce provocative questions and alternative viewpoints that can change the entire dynamic”. When contemplating the future, Filcak questioned the potential limitations of horizon scanning when spotting potential causes of uncertainty in complex interplay between climate change, socio-economic disparities, and technological advancements. As he stated: “My worry would be if these horizon scanning techniques are sufficient to determine key risks and opportunities requiring attention, while we face more and more complicated questions. Foresight methods provide interesting inputs, but I think we are moving in circles with a couple of methodologies which have been in use for 10, 15 or more years. The question is whether you can think out-of-the box in terms of new approaches and methodologies.” For him, one emerging field in foresight is the “combination of both quantitative and qualitative techniques, with an emphasis on building connections between environmental, social, and economic indicators and finding effective ways to translate them into models.” 15320 0 0 Signal scanning Horizon Scanning EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1575 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 505 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Futures of Natural Resources: The 24th international Futures Conference of Finland Futures Research Centre / Futures of Natural Resources: The 24th international Futures Conference of Finland Futures Research Centre Mikkel Knudsen Sep 29, 2024 The 24th edition of the International Futures Research Conference was not short of insightful keynotes, newly published studies, and constructive exchanges in the field of foresight for the sustainable management of natural resources. In June 2024, Finland Futures Research Centre, together with partners Finland Futures Academy and National Resources Institute Finland welcomed participants to Turku, Finland for its 24th international futures research conference. The conference is one of the biggest annual research conferences within the field of futures studies and foresight, and it always attracts participants from all around the world. This year’s conference focused on questions of what futures research provides for the sustainable management of natural resources, both for water and land. A diverse set of keynotes and workshop sessions During both the online day and the two days of onsite sessions, participants had the opportunity to attend a variety of keynotes, paper sessions, and workshops highlighting issues of sustainability, resources, and the need for transformations in uncertain futures. For example, Professor Gianluca Brunori, University of Pisa (IT), advocated for food system transformations in times of permacrisis, Dr. Katriina Soini, Luke (FI), discussed cultural pathways for sustainable use of natural resources, Dr. Åsa Svenfelt, Linköping University (SE), talked about futures beyond consumption, while Dr. Rafael Popper, adjunct professor in both Warsaw University of Technology (PL) and University of Turku (FI) gave an insightful view into the significance and potential of the forest-based bioeconomy as illuminated by an extensive roadmap-based foresight project. The conference also hosted a Millenium Project Special Session on paradoxes of work that was introduced by an onsite keynote from Jerome Glenn, CEO of the Millennium Project. The workshop session is well-documented in a newly published FFRC eBook . Launching a ‘Mosaic of Futures Studies’ Another conference highlight was the launch of a new anthology of Our World of Futures Studies as a Mosaic (openly accessible in digital format at bit.ly/worldasmosaic ). The book introduces approaches to futures studies and foresight from different parts of the globe, appreciating and learning from the different contexts. While explicitly claiming that it is an introduction, rather than an all-encompassing description of the field, it provides a glimpse into the diversity of the field across five different continents. To name a few examples, the book discusses the history and development of foresight in Germany, insights on anticipation initiatives in Morocco, and the state of long-term thinking in Latin American governments. Onwards to ‘25 As this year’s conference concluded, attention was again turned towards the future. Planning is already underway for next year’s conference, namely Futures of Technologies: Mutual Shaping of Socio-Technical Transformations , a celebratory 25th edition. The Futures Conference 2025 will be organized on 10-12 June 2025 onsite in Turku, Finland, and in collaboration with VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd. A call for papers will be available in October 2024 with a tentative deadline for abstracts 31 January 2025. Interested parties are welcome to submit papers or workshops or simply to attend the event as participants. For more information, feel free to reach out to the author Mikkel Knudsen through the platform or to conference organizers at futuresconference@utu.fi . 617 0 1 Foresight nature Land use EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1575 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 505 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Reimagining the Food System: scanning the horizon for emerging social innovations > Reimagining the Food System: scanning the horizon for emerging social innovations Food systems require urgent and profound transformation to become sustainable, both in Europe and worldwide. Social innovation plays a pivotal role in transforming today’s food systems into ones that are economically and socially feasible, and sustainable within planetary boundaries. The project Reimagining the Food System: scanning the horizon for emerging social innovations was conducted between July - December 2021, on behalf of the European Environment Agency. It engaged in a systemic examination of emerging social innovations across the food chain, conducted using horizon scanning, a tool to detect early signs of potentially important developments. Thus, it offers insights into the experimentation taking place in alternative ways to produce, trade and consume food. Project phases: The horizon-scanning combined web mining with a filtering and validation process, using machine learning and human evaluation. The exercise identified over 240 weak (or early) signals from a variety of news articles, blogs and grey literature published in English between 2017 and 2021. The signals were aggregated into 24 closely related subsets, with each cluster hinting at a potential emerging issue (see image); Next, 21 representatives from civil society organisations, business, academia and government discussed these issues at a sense-making workshop in September 2021; Following the workshop, 10 emerging issues were prioritised for characterisation. The characterisation was based on desk research and 11 semi-structured interviews with experts in the field. The 10 selected emerging issues include developments in new foods, products, services, and business and governance models. These issues have often been enabled by existing technologies and new forms of local partnerships, involving a variety of engaged stakeholders. They vary in their degree of maturity and novelty: some are relatively new developments, while others lend new perspectives to known subjects. Moreover, some provide new combinations of existing elements, while others are niche practices beginning to filter into the mainstream: 1. Agroecology: a way of producing food and living, a science and a movement for change 2. Soulful soil: alternative methods for nutrient and pest management 3. The power of many: community-supported agriculture networks and initiatives 4. Food-growing cities: urban farming, integrated food policies and citizen involvement 5. Muscle-up: alternative protein sources for human consumption 6. Knowledge is power: ensuring traceability and informing consumers 7. Reclaiming retail: (re)connecting farmers with consumers and businesses 8. Procurement strategies supporting sustainable agricultural and fishing practices 9. Menu for change: restaurants feed appetite for sustainability 10. The gift that keeps on giving: upcycled foods and food into energy The research team was composed of experts from the following organizations: ISINNOVA Institutul de Prospectiva Austrian Institute of Technology Insight Foresight Institute 5717 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/reimagining-the-food-system-the OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Horizon Scanning Social innovation Food MEET THE EXPERTS Totti Könnölä Foresight, Innovation & Sustainability View on LinkedIn Giovanna Guiffrè View on LinkedIn Bianca Dragomir View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 ORION: Meet Your Co-Pilot in Horizon Scanning Paulo Carvalho has been working in the field of futures and foresight for more than 25 years. On one hand, he is a professor in foresight, strategy and innovation at the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Lisbon. On the other hand, he founded a foresight company five years ago, IF Insight Foresight, focussing on consulting, horizon scanning and strategic intelligence, as well as other strategy and innovation projects. He talked to Futures4Europe about Insight Foresight’s recently developed tool ORION and how it could revolutionise foresight practices. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Addressing underlying assumptions: Tips and Tricks on Horizon Scanning The 'Horizon Scanning – Tips and Tricks.' publication provides an insightful step-by-step support on how to run an effective horizon scan - and how to address underlying biases while doing so. Emma Coroler 0 0 0 How Combining Participatory Democracy and Foresight Practices Can Foster Political Innovation A journey in participatory democracy through challenges (and opportunities) of future-thinking approaches. Giovanna Guiffrè & Valentina Malcotti 0 0 0 ‘Going rural’ - Managing Land Access (and Use) to support rural futures Renewing rural generations, via the provision of green jobs and accessible farming enterprises, has powered the EU-sponsored RURALIZATION project looking to promote synergies between agriculture policymakers and local rural communities in painting attractive rural futures. Giovanna Guiffrè & Valentina Malcotti 1 2 1 ... 1 2 ... 2 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects FUTURINNOV The FUTURINNOV project run by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches. This is done through activities to identify funding priorities, inform programme design, contribute to policy feedback, and develop institutional governance. The main objectives are to:• Provide short and medium-term future-oriented evidence-based advice on signals and trends of emerging technologies, breakthrough innovation, and investment patterns;• Support the development of long-term EIC strategic intelligence, grounded in anticipatory, collective, and hybrid methods, towards knowledge transfer and capacity building; and• Explore innovative anticipatory thinking and future-oriented methodologies to support EIC in its mission as a funding body and a knowledge- provider for policy design and implementation. The project started in the beginning of the 2024 and will run until February 2025. Outputs of the FUTURINNOV project will include three literature reviews identifying and analysing signals of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations as well as findings from horizon scanning workshops. Eyes on the Future: Volume 1 Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1 The report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making.The literature review(1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies,(2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report,(3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies(4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights(5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting. Read the reportRead some insights from the authors on the blog (Dis)Entangling the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics:quantum sensingquantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics modelsmaterials for quantumArtificial Intelligence for quantumerror correctionsolid-state scalabilityquantum for Artificial Intelligencequantum as a service – metacloudquantum computersFurthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility. Read the report 6492 0 Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. 2720 0 MOVING (Mountain Valorization through Interconnectedness and Green Growth) European mountain areas play a central role in the well-being of many highly populated European regions. The big question is how these mountain areas are being impacted by climate change. The EU-funded MOVING project will build capacities and co-develop policy frameworks across Europe. It will establish new or upscaled value chains to boost resilience and sustainability of mountain areas. The first step will be to screen traditional and emerging value chains in all European mountain areas. The next step will involve in-depth assessment of vulnerability and resilience of land use, production systems and value chains in 23 mountain regions. The project will use a virtual research environment to promote online interactions amongst actors and new tools to ensure information is accessible by different audiences. 5838 0 4Growth project - Understanding the Market to Forecast Future Growth 4Growth will showcase the uptake of digital technologies and data through the “4Growth Visualisation Platform” that will combine powerful storytelling with advanced visualisations of the market. This 3-year Horizon Europe project, funded by the European Commission, brings together 13 partners with the aim of understanding where, how and to what extent digital technologies and data are being adopted within the agricultural and forestry sectors. The project started in January 2024 and will end in December 2026. Consortium members: 1 Wageningen University & Research, Netherlands (Coordinator) 2 EVENFLOW, Belgium (Technical Managers) 3 GEOPONIKO PANEPISTIMION ATHINON, Greece 4 FOODSCALE HUB GREECE, Greece 5 LE EUROPE LIMITED, Ireland 6 FUTURE IMPACTS, Germany 7 SIMBIOTICA SL, Spain 8 EV ILVO: EIGEN VERMOGEN VAN HET INSTITUUT VOOR LANDBOUW- EN VISSERIJONDERZOEK, Belgium 9 INSTITUTO NAVARRO DE TECNOLOGIAS E INFRAESTRUCTURAS AGROALIMENTRIAS, Spain 10 CENTRE TECHNIQUE INTERPROFESSIONNEL DES FRUITS ET LEGUMES, France 11 TEKNOLOGIAN TUTKIMUSKESKUS VTT OY, Finland 12 AgriFood Lithuania DIH, Lithuania 13 ARISTOTELIO PANEPISTIMIO THESSALONIKIS, Greece 7695 0 1 2 3 1 ... 1 2 3 ... 3 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. 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THEMES / PROJECTS / BLOGS / Hydrogen Economy in "Europe 2040" / Hydrogen Economy in "Europe 2040" Ulli Lorenz Aug 25, 2022 Hydrogen is „just“ an elementary molecule consisting of two hydrogen-atoms. Why is there so much fuss about this simple molecule that even a whole economy should or could be built upon it? The reaction of hydrogen (H2) with oxygen releases a lot of energy while forming pure water. In the other direction, water can be divided into hydrogen (H2) and oxygen with the help of electricity (there are of cause also other hydrogen building reactions mostly built on fossil fuels/biomass); this is simple chemistry. Compared to fossil fuels, water is nearly unlimited on the planet. Hydrogen is a lightweight gas, and depending on pressure, surface or chemical binding, it can be transported, serves as a fuel and can be used for mobility, heating, chemical reactions or the generation of electricity (storage). We would have an abundant fuel based on the (theoretical) abundance of water and electricity produced by renewable energy facilities. There is no peak oil and no GHG-Emissions – only pure water and energy. This can be a game changer – assuming we get the technologies right. But let’s assume this will be the case. And how will the game be changed? This is precisely what we are going to explore in our Scenario-Exercise. The key question is: How could a world (Europe) look like with abundant energy in the form of hydrogen? What are the central factors shaping the future, given that we have abundant (green) hydrogen? We will have to look at global developments and the situation in the global south. For example, in Northern Africa, there is enormous potential for renewable energy – only that fresh water might be a problem. However, what if technology allows for electrolysers that can cope with seawater? And what happens to countries only with limited access to freshwater or seawater? Would that create new imbalances and potentially new lines of conflict? What about the interest of the nations in the global south? The term “ new colonisation ” has already been born. In addition, what happens to global power relations? What influence will the current conflict with Russia have in the future, and what are the new constellations after this war? Building renewable energy facilities requires a lot of – partly critical – raw materials . Will Europe be in the position to have access to all required raw materials? Will the oil-producing countries just wait and see? Will they transform and also become hydrogen or electricity producer? Maybe Arabian countries enter the road to synthetic fuels and can just use existing infrastructure. How will large multinational companies position themselves? A closer look into Europe might cover topics like, how self-sufficient/autonomous Europe can be. Will the population accept all the renewable energy facilities ? Do national and European legislation and administration allow such a fast transition ? Can such a transition be just for all? Which impact will the transition towards a circular economy have on energy demand and the structure of industrial production ? Which role can digitalisation play – concerning smart grids in connection with cybercrime , resilience and terms of preparedness? Most of these questions relate to so-called influencing factors that will help us to ask the right questions for the future. These factors help us define and explore scenarios of a Hydrogen Economy in Europe. We will systematise the process of the identification and selection of key factors and build projections into the future of each of these key factors. Consistent and plausible combinations of the projections will build the skeleton for our scenarios. These will be enriched, assessed and evaluated. The overarching guiding question for our assessments will be, in the end, what can and must Research and Innovation Policy do to support the transition best? We will regularly update news about the scenario process on this platform. The scenario workshops will take place online: 8. September, 13:00 – 16:00 CEST: Selection of the key factors 14. September 9:00 – 12:00 CEST: Building of the projections 26. September 13:00 – 16:00 CEST: Selection of the scenarios and first enrichment If you are interested in joining the workshop and contributing to the discussions with the expert group, please send a private message via LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ullrichlorenz/overlay/contact-info/ , and we will provide you with the dial-in details. Looking forward to the exploration of the future together with you. 15191 0 0 Scenarios Horizon Scanning Hydrogen EXTERNAL LINKS Url Comments Cancel Publish Login 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 ... 100 FUTURES LITERACY More about Futures Literacy New to foresight or want to deepen your knowledge on methods? Interested in the latest research and videos from the Futures4Europe community? Find out more in our futures literacy database! Eliza Savvopoulou As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works! 1575 0 0 Iva Vancurova Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results 2091 0 0 Renata Mandzhieva Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S). Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam 1997 0 1 Dana Wasserbacher The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies. Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies 505 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ... 26 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Submit your Blogpost

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > Reference Foresight Scenarios: Scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040 > Reference Foresight Scenarios: Scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040 The Reference Foresight Scenarios report from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) summarizes the results of a foresight process that started at the end of 2020 with the goal to develop a set of reference foresight scenarios to support policymakers. Foresight scenarios are a tool to improve strategy development and decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. Recent events, such as the COVID pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. The reference scenarios presented in this report aim to help decision makers to increase the preparedness of their organisations under increasingly unpredictable circumstances. The scenarios are four plausible versions of how the world may look like in 2040 and what this would mean for Europe’s global standing. They are called Storms, End game, Struggling synergies, and Opposing views. They do not claim to predict or project how the future may look like but offer strategic reflections, which can serve as a compass for policymakers for navigating through unchartered territories of turbulence, uncertainty, ambiguity and novelty. These four geopolitical scenarios are called ‘Reference’ Foresight Scenarios because they represent a forward-looking framework that provides a reference for use in policymakers’ debates about potential futures. The study was conducted between 2020-2023 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC). Read the report Read the blog and learn more about the process and how these scenarios can be used in future oriented policy making. Stress-testing policy options with the scenarios The work with the reference foresight scenarios continued as a pilot process of stress-testing some policy options against a set of Reference foresight scenarios. The process was led by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and applied to a specific EU policy proposal on Standard Essential Patents. The process ran during the initial stage of the impact assessment process, but it was not an official part of it. The results of this pilot helped to understand which policy options are more or less robust and how they can be made more future-proof. The process also provided rich insights into what the challenges and opportunities of this approach are, and into how stress-testing can be further incorporated into EU policymaking. The report provides an example and serve as a guide for any future process of stress-testing policy options against foresight scenarios. Read the report: Stress-testing of policy options using foresight scenarios: a pilot case 9932 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://policy-lab.ec.europa.eu/index_en Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC132943 Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC13 OUTPUTS Reference Foresight Scenarios.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren Stress-testing of policy options using foresight scenarios.pdf ​ Blog Albert Norström DOWNLOAD Memoiren Science for Policy Scenarios Geopolitics MEET THE EXPERTS Eckhard Störmer Dr. View on LinkedIn Stefan Muench View on LinkedIn Lucia Vesnic-Alujevic View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 Futures of Science for Policy in Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications In the recently published brief ‘Futures of Science for Policy in Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications’, we explore practices and processes by which information should be exchanged between knowledge actors and policy-makers with the intention to produce scientifically informed policies in Europe. We can see an increasing prominence of science in many public debates and the increasing willingness of governments to mobilize scientific and other advice mechanisms in the context of public debate. Leena Sarvaranta 0 0 0 Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 3: Future of Science for Policy in Europe This blog post summarizes the dissemination event held for the 'Futures of Science for Policy in Europe ' project. Emma Coroler 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects Reference Foresight Scenarios: Scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040 The Reference Foresight Scenarios report from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) summarizes the results of a foresight process that started at the end of 2020 with the goal to develop a set of reference foresight scenarios to support policymakers. Foresight scenarios are a tool to improve strategy development and decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. Recent events, such as the COVID pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. The reference scenarios presented in this report aim to help decision makers to increase the preparedness of their organisations under increasingly unpredictable circumstances. The scenarios are four plausible versions of how the world may look like in 2040 and what this would mean for Europe’s global standing. They are called Storms, End game, Struggling synergies, and Opposing views. They do not claim to predict or project how the future may look like but offer strategic reflections, which can serve as a compass for policymakers for navigating through unchartered territories of turbulence, uncertainty, ambiguity and novelty. These four geopolitical scenarios are called ‘Reference’ Foresight Scenarios because they represent a forward-looking framework that provides a reference for use in policymakers’ debates about potential futures.The study was conducted between 2020-2023 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC). Read the report Read the blog and learn more about the process and how these scenarios can be used in future oriented policy making. Stress-testing policy options with the scenarios The work with the reference foresight scenarios continued as a pilot process of stress-testing some policy options against a set of Reference foresight scenarios. The process was led by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and applied to a specific EU policy proposal on Standard Essential Patents. The process ran during the initial stage of the impact assessment process, but it was not an official part of it. The results of this pilot helped to understand which policy options are more or less robust and how they can be made more future-proof. The process also provided rich insights into what the challenges and opportunities of this approach are, and into how stress-testing can be further incorporated into EU policymaking. The report provides an example and serve as a guide for any future process of stress-testing policy options against foresight scenarios. Read the report: Stress-testing of policy options using foresight scenarios: a pilot case 9932 0 i-Portunus Houses – Kick-Start a Local Mobility Host Network for Artists & Cultural Professionals in AllCreative Europe Countries The i-Portunus Houses project, implemented on behalf of the European Commission by a consortium of three partners – the European Cultural Foundation (coordinator), MitOst, and Kultura Nova Foundation – was dedicated to testing and analysing diverse transnational mobility schemes for the cultural sector. Apart from granting support for local hosts from all Creative Europe countries for the mobility of artists and cultural professionals, the project also included research on mobility in culture and the design of policy recommendations. In the research, the mobility of artists and cultural professionals is understood as the temporary, cross-border travel of artists and cultural professionals with the purpose of creating, connecting, exploring and learning. The research was carried out by experts from different disciplines with Dea Vidović being the research leader. As a result of the aforementioned research, in 2022 Kultura Nova Foundation published a 4-volume publication. Each volume represents one of the research sections: (1) conceptual framework of mobility in culture; (2) the study on mobility in culture from the perspectives of artists, cultural professionals, hosts and funders; (3) an evaluation of i-Portunus Houses mobility grant scheme and (4) scenario for the future of mobility in culture. The research covers a wide range of topics related to mobility in culture, such as its participatory and networking dimension, its digital dimension and virtual mobility, as well as its green dimension. The culmination of the research, alongside extensive recommendations and action points for sustainable mobility, is Scenario for the Future which introduces a new concept of "slow mobility". 25135 2 Futures of Science for Policy in Europe The project explores futures of science for policy; practices and processes by which information is exchanged between knowledge actors and policymakers with the intention to produce scientifically-informed policy in Europe. We are making a deep dive into developments which are currently underway and will take us to different possible 2030s, according to events largely unpredictable and decisions bound by a number of constraints of diverse nature. The project is one of eight foresight deep dives of the project 'European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe' carried out by the Foresight on Demand consortium. 25889 1 1 1 ... 1 ... 1 RELATED DISCUSSION POSTS More Discussion Posts 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ... 38 Start a new Discussion Join our community! We are all citizens. Register here now and get involved in this community and maybe even share your theme related project. Sign Up

COLLECTIONS > PROJECTS > ESPAS Horizon Scanning > ESPAS Horizon Scanning The ongoing inter-institutional European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) Horizon Scanning activity since 2022 is led by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission and the European Parliamentary Research Services. An iterative methodology is rolled out at three successive levels, involving experts in a variety of policy areas and across several EU institutions. Firstly, at the outset, this exercise builds a wider EU community engaged in horizon scanning. Their task at a first level has involved looking for future developments that sit at the margins of current thinking and planning, the so-called ‘signs of new’. Secondly, sense-making workshops are organised on a monthly basis to consider through new lenses the identified ‘signs of new’ collected over the month and find links and interconnections among them across policies and sectors. The aim of these second-level workshops is thus to imagine possible impactful future developments, ‘signals of change’, using the collected signs as prompts. Thirdly, future impact workshops, conceived as exploratory and prioritisation workshops are organised after conducting a few sense-making workshops. These workshops also include the participation of officials across all ESPAS institutions and aim to prioritise the three potentially most impactful ‘signals of change’ from among those identified at an earlier stage. This careful process results in Horizon Scanning newsletters providing a broader perspective on policy making. Read the latest newsletters here: Horizon Scanning | ESPAS See also blog post describing the project and its role in EU : Spotting the Future: How Horizon Scanning can help shape EU Policy - European Commission (europa.eu) ESPAS Horizon Scanning feeds to other ESPAS projects. Read the Global Trends Reports published every five years. 8376 0 0 EXTERNAL LINKS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um https://espas.eu/horizon.html OUTPUTS Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Title Type Firstname Lastname Mar 30, 2022 Button Memoiren Ich bin ein Textabschnitt. Klicke hier, um deinen eigenen Text hinzuzufügen und mich zu bearbeiten. Is Hydrogen that good for the Climate? Blog Albert Norström Button Memoiren Horizon Scanning MEET THE EXPERTS Maciej Krzysztofowicz View on LinkedIn Kathrine Jensen View on LinkedIn Maija Knutti Policy analyst View on LinkedIn RELATED BLOGS More Blogs 0 0 0 ORION: Meet Your Co-Pilot in Horizon Scanning Paulo Carvalho has been working in the field of futures and foresight for more than 25 years. On one hand, he is a professor in foresight, strategy and innovation at the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Lisbon. On the other hand, he founded a foresight company five years ago, IF Insight Foresight, focussing on consulting, horizon scanning and strategic intelligence, as well as other strategy and innovation projects. He talked to Futures4Europe about Insight Foresight’s recently developed tool ORION and how it could revolutionise foresight practices. Laura Galante 0 0 0 Addressing underlying assumptions: Tips and Tricks on Horizon Scanning The 'Horizon Scanning – Tips and Tricks.' publication provides an insightful step-by-step support on how to run an effective horizon scan - and how to address underlying biases while doing so. Emma Coroler 0 0 0 How Combining Participatory Democracy and Foresight Practices Can Foster Political Innovation A journey in participatory democracy through challenges (and opportunities) of future-thinking approaches. Giovanna Guiffrè & Valentina Malcotti 0 0 0 ‘Going rural’ - Managing Land Access (and Use) to support rural futures Renewing rural generations, via the provision of green jobs and accessible farming enterprises, has powered the EU-sponsored RURALIZATION project looking to promote synergies between agriculture policymakers and local rural communities in painting attractive rural futures. Giovanna Guiffrè & Valentina Malcotti 1 2 1 ... 1 2 ... 2 Be part of the foresight community! Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project. Sign Up RELATED PROJECTS More Projects FUTURINNOV The FUTURINNOV project run by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches. This is done through activities to identify funding priorities, inform programme design, contribute to policy feedback, and develop institutional governance. The main objectives are to:• Provide short and medium-term future-oriented evidence-based advice on signals and trends of emerging technologies, breakthrough innovation, and investment patterns;• Support the development of long-term EIC strategic intelligence, grounded in anticipatory, collective, and hybrid methods, towards knowledge transfer and capacity building; and• Explore innovative anticipatory thinking and future-oriented methodologies to support EIC in its mission as a funding body and a knowledge- provider for policy design and implementation. The project started in the beginning of the 2024 and will run until February 2025. Outputs of the FUTURINNOV project will include three literature reviews identifying and analysing signals of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations as well as findings from horizon scanning workshops. Eyes on the Future: Volume 1 Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1 The report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making.The literature review(1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies,(2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report,(3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies(4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights(5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting. Read the reportRead some insights from the authors on the blog (Dis)Entangling the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics:quantum sensingquantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics modelsmaterials for quantumArtificial Intelligence for quantumerror correctionsolid-state scalabilityquantum for Artificial Intelligencequantum as a service – metacloudquantum computersFurthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility. Read the report 6492 0 Reimagining the Food System: scanning the horizon for emerging social innovations Food systems require urgent and profound transformation to become sustainable, both in Europe and worldwide. Social innovation plays a pivotal role in transforming today’s food systems into ones that are economically and socially feasible, and sustainable within planetary boundaries. The project Reimagining the Food System: scanning the horizon for emerging social innovations was conducted between July - December 2021, on behalf of the European Environment Agency. It engaged in a systemic examination of emerging social innovations across the food chain, conducted using horizon scanning, a tool to detect early signs of potentially important developments. Thus, it offers insights into the experimentation taking place in alternative ways to produce, trade and consume food. Project phases: The horizon-scanning combined web mining with a filtering and validation process, using machine learning and human evaluation. The exercise identified over 240 weak (or early) signals from a variety of news articles, blogs and grey literature published in English between 2017 and 2021. The signals were aggregated into 24 closely related subsets, with each cluster hinting at a potential emerging issue (see image); Next, 21 representatives from civil society organisations, business, academia and government discussed these issues at a sense-making workshop in September 2021; Following the workshop, 10 emerging issues were prioritised for characterisation. The characterisation was based on desk research and 11 semi-structured interviews with experts in the field. The 10 selected emerging issues include developments in new foods, products, services, and business and governance models. These issues have often been enabled by existing technologies and new forms of local partnerships, involving a variety of engaged stakeholders. They vary in their degree of maturity and novelty: some are relatively new developments, while others lend new perspectives to known subjects. Moreover, some provide new combinations of existing elements, while others are niche practices beginning to filter into the mainstream: 1. Agroecology: a way of producing food and living, a science and a movement for change 2. Soulful soil: alternative methods for nutrient and pest management 3. The power of many: community-supported agriculture networks and initiatives 4. Food-growing cities: urban farming, integrated food policies and citizen involvement 5. Muscle-up: alternative protein sources for human consumption 6. Knowledge is power: ensuring traceability and informing consumers 7. Reclaiming retail: (re)connecting farmers with consumers and businesses 8. Procurement strategies supporting sustainable agricultural and fishing practices 9. Menu for change: restaurants feed appetite for sustainability 10. The gift that keeps on giving: upcycled foods and food into energy The research team was composed of experts from the following organizations: ISINNOVA Institutul de Prospectiva Austrian Institute of Technology Insight Foresight Institute 5717 0 4Growth project - Understanding the Market to Forecast Future Growth 4Growth will showcase the uptake of digital technologies and data through the “4Growth Visualisation Platform” that will combine powerful storytelling with advanced visualisations of the market. This 3-year Horizon Europe project, funded by the European Commission, brings together 13 partners with the aim of understanding where, how and to what extent digital technologies and data are being adopted within the agricultural and forestry sectors. The project started in January 2024 and will end in December 2026. Consortium members: 1 Wageningen University & Research, Netherlands (Coordinator) 2 EVENFLOW, Belgium (Technical Managers) 3 GEOPONIKO PANEPISTIMION ATHINON, Greece 4 FOODSCALE HUB GREECE, Greece 5 LE EUROPE LIMITED, Ireland 6 FUTURE IMPACTS, Germany 7 SIMBIOTICA SL, Spain 8 EV ILVO: EIGEN VERMOGEN VAN HET INSTITUUT VOOR LANDBOUW- EN VISSERIJONDERZOEK, Belgium 9 INSTITUTO NAVARRO DE TECNOLOGIAS E INFRAESTRUCTURAS AGROALIMENTRIAS, Spain 10 CENTRE TECHNIQUE INTERPROFESSIONNEL DES FRUITS ET LEGUMES, France 11 TEKNOLOGIAN TUTKIMUSKESKUS VTT OY, Finland 12 AgriFood Lithuania DIH, Lithuania 13 ARISTOTELIO PANEPISTIMIO THESSALONIKIS, Greece 7695 0 ANTICIPINNOV: Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation (ANTICIPINNOV) project is a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) with the European Innovation Council (EIC) 2023-2024 to strengthen strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. Learn more about the project from its's three different branches. Everybody is looking into the Future! A literature review of reports on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, present leading challenges in policy-making nowadays. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks, emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policy-making and preparedness. The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation trends and signals produced by public and private entities outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support innovation funding prioritisation. Other insights were extracted, namely those related with the scope of the EIC Programme Manager portfolios. Read the report See the lessons learned from the blog post Scanning deep tech horizons: Participatory collection and assessment of signals and trends The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction. The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives. The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC. Read the report Learn more about the process from a blog post Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation: Methods and Best Practices In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers. Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape technological change. In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning.Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop. 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