Europe is facing major societal challenges (climate change, demographic trends, cultural shifts induced by technology, new geopolitical balances, among others), which are radically changing the landscape of the European Union. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the instability of the markets and the economy and the difficulties of national and European public administrations in responding to the priorities of the citizens, have contributed to the increased detachment and lack of trust among citizens. While this poses risks to the
formal structures and institutions traditionally framing and holding together the European social system based on democracy and the free market, the EU is pursuing major transition programmes in order to respond to the major societal challenges. Its concerns with resilience extend to both, the structures and institutions that hold Europe together, and to the transition programmes that it wishes to drive.

We consider civic resilience, as the ability of a community, city, or society to prepare for, respond to, recover from, and adapt to adversities, challenges, or disruptions. Civic resilience is a core concern in crises as well as in transitions. It is about civil society surviving changes (disruptions, tipping points, crises etc. whether they are abrupt or founded in long-term developments). It calls for local commitment, preparedness beyond the support of the public administration and the private sector. It´s about civil society, both the community (social organizations) and the individuals (citizens), taking the initiative – as a key actor framing any social system –
to lead social change.

Exploring alternative futures addressing radical changes in society can help better prepare for future crises and strengthen the resilience of civil society today. Therefore, in this policy brief, we aim to assist policymakers by devising four possible future scenarios in 2040 and by considering their implications for today. While the challenges considered are global, policy implications are addressed especially about the European research and innovation policy. Four alternative scenarios were identified around two main axes (technological and economic adaptation and social & environmental stewardship):

• The first scenario, where both techno-economic adaptation and socio-environmental stewardship are high, represents an ideal future. This scenario (best of worlds) would be featured by low levels of community and individual resilience (welfare annihilates survival instinct): civil society would not be ready to face an unexpected event, totally devoid of self-protection mechanisms.
• The second scenario, where techno-economic adaptation is low but socio-environmental stewardship is high, means institutional void but strong community consensus. Here the risk -in terms of civic resilience- is that if the community prevails totally, then individuality is cancelled. Citizens are subordinated to the collective, which means the coexistence of a high level of community resilience and a low level of individual resilience.
• The third scenario, where high techno-economic adaptation meets low soc-environmental stewardship, represents a risk of rupture in the social fabric due to ubiquity and omnipresence of technology (AI, Singularity, Transhumanism?), an anomic society where community resilience is low -or even maybe annulled- even individual resilience may be high: in a homogenised alienated society
  where social institutions are annulled the only possible resistance may come from the individuals (a minority).
• The fourth scenario, the worst-case one, represents the survival mode where the menace is extreme, total and constant. Low techno-economic adaptation meets low socio-environmental stewardship, producing a vicious circle of desolation characterized by the fact that the social fabric is broken. It would be a radical context where both community and individual resilience may be high because
  hostile environments reinforce survival instinct (both individual and collective)

Each scenario provides a different point of view towards the situation in the EU today and what could and should be done by EU R&I policy, and by related policy fields that will affect the efficacy of the R&I policy pursuits towards civic resilience.

The evolving complexity of global challenges is increasingly affecting the steering of European Research and Innovation which aims at addressing important present and future societal concerns. The idea of ‘watching futures’ to anticipate future possibilities and analyse the consequences of current choices to inform and shape a forward-looking EU R&I policy is continuously gaining ground.

In this light, as part of the ‘European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe’ study launched by the European Commission in connection to the Horizon Europe Foresight Network, a second series of online workshops will take place during October – November 2023.

The workshops, which will run for two hours each, will discuss insights stemming from thematic policy briefs compiled by expert panels, addressing possible future scenarios for critical issues (i.e., Interpretation of Criminal and Lawful Activities, Green Skills and Jobs, Big Tech, etc.). Following the presentation of each policy brief, each workshop will feature two focus groups: one involving the group of experts from the panel who developed the policy brief and one including representatives from topic-relevant EU-funded R&I projects. All events will foster extensive engagement with participants, including policymakers.