Welcome to the fourth issue of Horizon Futures Watch! In this edition, we explore two pivotal yet distinct themes: the future of civic resilience and the future of intellectual property. Civic resilience refers to the ability of communities to adapt and thrive amidst challenges and changes, a crucial aspect in today’s rapidly evolving global landscape. On the other hand, the future of IP delves into evolving dynamics crucial for fostering innovation and for protecting the interests of creators in an increasingly digital world. While these themes stand independently, together they underscore the importance of adaptability and creativity in shaping the future. 

An overview of the latest selection of news about foresight projects and topics opens the issue.

In a world where the future often seems uncertain, how do local communities navigate the complexities of European policies to build a more resilient and equitable tomorrow? This is the intriguing question at the heart of RELOCAL, an EU -funded Horizon 2020 research project that ran between 2016 - 2021.

How can individuals practice critical thinking and effectively evaluate the credibility of sources in an age where information abounds but is not always accurate or truthful? Project CO-INFORM applied co-creation methods to develop verification tools with and for stakeholders such as journalists, policymak-ers, and citizens, to better prepare for situations in which the distinction between fact and fiction is not always evident.

The 8th Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop, which took place on 22 November 2023, served as a platform for insightful discussions centred around the topic of the future of civic resilience.

Participants delved into reflections acknowledging the emergence of resilience as a prominent topic during financial crises, particularly for establishing a resilient financial system. This focus gained substantial momentum in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, where publications began framing resilience as a new compass for EU policy, underscoring the imperative to navigate challenges and transitions in a sustainable, fair, and democratic manner. At the heart of the discussions was the exploration of the genuine meaning of the notion of "resilience".  Attendees contemplated whether resilience is inherently tied to strength or if it manifests as a quality in the absence of strength. Participants engaged in an exploration of potential trade-offs between these diverse perspectives on resilience, prompting thoughtful consideration of whether emphasising one aspect might unintentionally diminish the significance of the other.

Four scenarios have been crafted by the foresight team using a matrix that considers two key axes: Economic and Technological Adaptation, and Social and Environmental Stewardship. Each of these scenarios offers a distinct portrayal of the interplay between economic, technological, social, and environmental factors:  

• Sustainable Breakthroughs - High Economic and Technological Adaptation, High Social and Environmental Stewardship: In this scenario, both economic and technological challenges are effectively managed, and there is a strong emphasis on promoting social equity and environmental conservation. This scenario envisions an ideal future where sustainable practices are prioritized. 
• Community-Compensating - Low      Economic and Technological Adaptation, High Social and Environmental      Stewardship: Despite      facing economic and technological challenges, society in this scenario      places a significant emphasis on community building, social justice, and      environmental protection. It represents a future where community-driven      efforts take precedence in addressing social and environmental concerns. 
• Tech-Driven Dystopia - High      Economic and Technological Adaptation, Low Social and Environmental      Stewardship: This      scenario prioritizes economic growth and technological advancements, but      unfortunately at the expense of social equity and environmental health. It      serves as a cautionary tale, portraying a tech-driven dystopia where the      pursuit of economic and technological progress neglects crucial social and      environmental considerations. 
• Europe in Survival Mode - Low      Economic and Technological Adaptation, Low Social and Environmental      Stewardship: In this      scenario, economic downturns and technological disruptions occur without      effective mitigation, leading to neglect in addressing social and      environmental issues. This scenario depicts a future marked by decline,      emphasizing the importance of addressing economic, social, and      environmental challenges collectively to avoid a downward trajectory.

The R&I policy recommendations stemming from these scenarios include strategies such as identifying and defining boundaries for the forthcoming implementation of cutting-edge technologies with a key focus on prioritizing social stability and welfare. To prevent ecosystem degradation, the team advocates for environmental stewardship, particularly through the stimulation of locally driven and bottom-up generated collaborative and innovative initiatives. Another crucial facet involves the updating of public administration and services, bringing them closer to citizens to proactively prevent institutional degradation. Additionally, the proposals emphasise the stimulation of radical innovation through "glocal" creative initiatives, exemplified by Living Labs, aiming to make a local impact with global significance. Furthermore, a dedicated focus on investing in resilience research was proposed, with the aim to explore new potential needs and innovative approaches.

During the discussions, participants actively engaged in exploring the connections between the different scenarios presented and questioning risks associated with each scenario. The conversation referred to the urban-rural dynamicsand the inclusion of rural areas in the presented scenarios with regard to resilient agricultural food systems. Participants noted that the scenarios were removed from the political landscape on Earth in 2040, specifically regarding the future geopolitical roles of countries such as China, India, and the African nations, as well as considering the evolving trajectories of the United States and the declining trends in Europe. In contrast, the discussions illuminated key insights into the interplay of resilience, community dynamics, and the broader global political outlook.

The coordinator of project RELOCAL offered valuable insights by reviewing the scenarios previously presented through a local lens. RELOCAL, which aimed to explore civic resilience from a local perspective, was another project that highlighted the bottom-up approach between resilience and the local community.

Final discussion points encompassed the crucial emphasis on the local dimension of resilience, recognizing that resilience resides fundamentally in the values of communities. The debate underscored the significant role of local values in shaping the agenda for science and technology such as in the creation of the new Framework Programme for Research and Innovation. The importance of effective multilevel governance in rural areas surfaced as a pivotal factor for enhancing rural resilience. The conversation also delved into system-change theory, emphasising the need to acknowledge citizens as the smallest common denominator and integral contributors to resilience.

The FUTURESILIENCE project has set out to strengthen European economic and social resilience through an enhanced ability to adapt and respond quickly to future crises. To reach this goal, the project sees Research and Innovation (R&I) playing a key role in building the capacity to anticipate, better prepare and be more flexible in crisis periods.

Exploring alternative futures addressing radical changes in society can help better prepare for future crises and strengthen the resilience of civil society today. This post builds on the brief resulting from one of eight Deep Dive Foresight Studies in the project ‘European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe’ conducted by the Foresight on Demand’ consortium for the European Commission. During the autumn of 2023, the core group identified factors of change and organised two scenario and one policy implications workshops also engaging experts from academia, business, and public administration around Europe. We aimed to assist policy-makers by devising four possible future scenarios in 2040 and by considering their implications for today.

Europe is facing major societal challenges (climate change, demographic trends, cultural shifts induced by technology, new geopolitical balances, among others), which are radically changing the landscape of the European Union. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the instability of the markets and the economy and the difficulties of national and European public administrations in responding to the priorities of the citizens, have contributed to the increased detachment and lack of trust among citizens. While this poses risks to the
formal structures and institutions traditionally framing and holding together the European social system based on democracy and the free market, the EU is pursuing major transition programmes in order to respond to the major societal challenges. Its concerns with resilience extend to both, the structures and institutions that hold Europe together, and to the transition programmes that it wishes to drive.

We consider civic resilience, as the ability of a community, city, or society to prepare for, respond to, recover from, and adapt to adversities, challenges, or disruptions. Civic resilience is a core concern in crises as well as in transitions. It is about civil society surviving changes (disruptions, tipping points, crises etc. whether they are abrupt or founded in long-term developments). It calls for local commitment, preparedness beyond the support of the public administration and the private sector. It´s about civil society, both the community (social organizations) and the individuals (citizens), taking the initiative – as a key actor framing any social system –
to lead social change.

Exploring alternative futures addressing radical changes in society can help better prepare for future crises and strengthen the resilience of civil society today. Therefore, in this policy brief, we aim to assist policymakers by devising four possible future scenarios in 2040 and by considering their implications for today. While the challenges considered are global, policy implications are addressed especially about the European research and innovation policy. Four alternative scenarios were identified around two main axes (technological and economic adaptation and social & environmental stewardship):

• The first scenario, where both techno-economic adaptation and socio-environmental stewardship are high, represents an ideal future. This scenario (best of worlds) would be featured by low levels of community and individual resilience (welfare annihilates survival instinct): civil society would not be ready to face an unexpected event, totally devoid of self-protection mechanisms.
• The second scenario, where techno-economic adaptation is low but socio-environmental stewardship is high, means institutional void but strong community consensus. Here the risk -in terms of civic resilience- is that if the community prevails totally, then individuality is cancelled. Citizens are subordinated to the collective, which means the coexistence of a high level of community resilience and a low level of individual resilience.
• The third scenario, where high techno-economic adaptation meets low soc-environmental stewardship, represents a risk of rupture in the social fabric due to ubiquity and omnipresence of technology (AI, Singularity, Transhumanism?), an anomic society where community resilience is low -or even maybe annulled- even individual resilience may be high: in a homogenised alienated society
  where social institutions are annulled the only possible resistance may come from the individuals (a minority).
• The fourth scenario, the worst-case one, represents the survival mode where the menace is extreme, total and constant. Low techno-economic adaptation meets low socio-environmental stewardship, producing a vicious circle of desolation characterized by the fact that the social fabric is broken. It would be a radical context where both community and individual resilience may be high because
  hostile environments reinforce survival instinct (both individual and collective)

Each scenario provides a different point of view towards the situation in the EU today and what could and should be done by EU R&I policy, and by related policy fields that will affect the efficacy of the R&I policy pursuits towards civic resilience.

The evolving complexity of global challenges is increasingly affecting the steering of European Research and Innovation which aims at addressing important present and future societal concerns. The idea of ‘watching futures’ to anticipate future possibilities and analyse the consequences of current choices to inform and shape a forward-looking EU R&I policy is continuously gaining ground.

In this light, as part of the ‘European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe’ study launched by the European Commission in connection to the Horizon Europe Foresight Network, a second series of online workshops will take place during October – November 2023.

The workshops, which will run for two hours each, will discuss insights stemming from thematic policy briefs compiled by expert panels, addressing possible future scenarios for critical issues (i.e., Interpretation of Criminal and Lawful Activities, Green Skills and Jobs, Big Tech, etc.). Following the presentation of each policy brief, each workshop will feature two focus groups: one involving the group of experts from the panel who developed the policy brief and one including representatives from topic-relevant EU-funded R&I projects. All events will foster extensive engagement with participants, including policymakers.