The foresight project “Adaptation to Climate Change including Societal Transformation” (Framework Contract 2018/RTD/A2/OP/PP-07001-2018-LOT1) was meant to complement the Mission Boards’ deep and wide-ranging expertise by exploring longer-term time horizons, up to and beyond the year 2050. Building on existing future-oriented work, the project employed dedicated foresight methods, in particular workshops and a Delphi survey, to explore this time horizon in a systematic manner, and involving experts and stakeholders as appropriate.

Climate Adaptation refers to anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise. It has been shown that well-planned, early adaptation action later saves money, lives, livelihoods, and biodiversity.

The foresight was based on the European Commission (EC) White Paper “Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action” of 2009, and on the EU climate adaptation strategy adopted in 2013. At the time of the formulation of this strategy, the economic, environmental, and social costs of not adapting to climate change were estimated to range from 100 billion € a year in 2020 to 250 billion € a year in 2050, for the EU as a whole. Meanwhile, the EC in February 2021 elaborated and adopted a new climate adaptation strategy, which focuses on developing solutions and implementation of adaptation measures.

Research directions: Climate change adaptation (CCA) including societal transformation covers a broad range of areas, such as agriculture, dealing with water resources, disaster prevention, migration flows, security issues, behaviour changes, urban areas, industry and trade relations, transforming the energy system and transportation. The thematic scope of the foresight exercise was defined in close collaboration with the Mission Board (MB) through the Mission Board Secretariat. Consequently, the Delphi survey implemented in summer 2020 was used to assess elements of the interim MB report, in particular items around risk management, financial risk protection, social infrastructure, health, water, food/agriculture, and ecosystems. All the work fed into the final report of the Mission Board “A Climate Resilient Europe - Prepare Europe for climate disruptions and accelerate the transformation to a climate resilient and just Europe by 2030” (2020).

COVID-19 has led to a global public health crisis and changed the course of lives for billions with ensuing social and economic damage. A foresight study was commissioned by the European Commission DG RTD in June 2020 that used Dynamic Argumentative Delphi method to explore experts’ views on what Europe may look like in 2023, in the domains relating to medicine, public health, and socio-economic conditions. Using expert responses to the survey, the points of consensus and the areas of divergence (uncertainties) were analysed, and five plausible 'exit scenarios' were developed. The report draws conclusions for EU R&I policy, but together with its data annex, it can support strategic discussions across many different policy fields.

Link to the report: http://doi.org/10.2777/293413

The DLR-PT conducted a comprehensive foresight study for the BMWK to explore the current progress and challenges in quantum computing. Using DLR-PT's innovative Strategic Impact Navigation Assessment Model (SINAVI), the study employed a range of methods including trend analysis, expert interviews and multi-stage Delphi surveys. Based on these findings, DLR-PT created a forward-looking scenario for 2032 and used the backcasting method to identify key strategies for advancing quantum computing in Germany. The findings were enriched with data from an accompanying performance review of the funding initiative, for which DLR-PT was also responsible. The result was a holistic, actionable roadmap that highlights both the achievements and future potential of the funding programme.

Humans have internal clocks that clock vital biological rhythms. These are innate, but can be positively or negatively influenced by the environment. Daily rhythms are regulated by the “circadian system” (the internal clock).
The circadian system is inextricably linked to the regulation of the sleep-wake rhythm. Disruptions to the circadian system can therefore cause sleep disorders and associated cognitive impairment as well as various health problems. 

How do we humans influence our future by neglecting these rhythms? And what can we individually or as an organisation do to support our rhythmic life? Currently, we are de-synchronising ourselves, our organs and our lives... we are on an unhealthy way. What we need is a future chronobiologically enlightened society. 3 Policy Briefs and a final report describe the state of the art of our knowledge and many options for the future.

THE FUTURE OF GREEN SKILLS AND JOBS IN EUROPE IN 2050: SCENARIO AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS - CONSEQUENCESS FOR THE PREVENTION OF OCCUPATIONAL RISKS

In the context of European research and innovation policies, a strategic foresight process has been implemented by the European commission with a view to guiding futures needs and identifying common priorities. INRS and other European experts were invited to participate in a foresight network focusing on green skills and jobs in Europe by 2050. This article presents a summary of the discussions, with a special emphasis on the consequences for the prevention of occupational risks.

The Covid-19 pandemic has shattered our sense of ‘normal’, and amplified uncertainties and issues at the core of what the future may hold. The project ‘After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world’ examined possible futures of 2040 for the EU emerging from the crisis of the pandemic, as possible contexts for EU R&I. The five scenarios described in this report chart different possible post-Covid-19 evolution paths, creating new perspectives on key EU R&I policy issues.

Control over technological development

Across all scenarios, the ability of the European Union to exert control over future technological development - through regulation, standardisation, and the enforcement of policy - entails wide ranging socio-economic implications for the broader society.

The EU share of global R&D is shrinking, and there is an unavoidable, growing EU dependence on technologies developed and produced elsewhere in the world, most notably in the US or China. There is also an ever-increasing influence of private firms on technological development, including large multinationals, which remain largely outside public control as regards potential societal consequences of the deployment of those technologies. The challenges these trends may pose to the ability of the EU to exercise control over technological development will depend on the speed of the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis and on the character of the relationships that will be built during the recovery effort.

Resilience, adaptability and preparedness for future crises

Resilience, adaptability and preparedness require an anticipatory R&I policy including ways of identifying, monitoring and addressing threats and developing new emergency response capacities that involve science in systemic roles: as a generator of advice, as a capacity for quick analysis, monitoring of the challenge and evaluating the efficacy of responses, as well as a generator of new responses and tools against the crisis. Preparedness should include:

1. ‘Wind-tunnelling’ new plans, policies, and institutions through worst-case scenarios for alternative crises.
2. Exploring regularly new modes of assessing threats and trialing emergency responses, which offer the possibility to explore hidden opportunities.
3. Engaging research with all branches of government to share findings about threats and opportunities, and to foster more integrated and coordinated responses.

The key role of education

The Covid-19 crisis precipitates the introduction of a new wave of educational technologies, opening up new possibilities and engendering new challenges and risks. This could be heralding new opportunities for improving the relations
between science and education, and therefore strengthening the contributions of science to society, as well as new challenges of fracturing value and belief systems, populism and fake news. The availability of public funds for education and the role that private companies will play in new educational developments will be critical. EU R&I policy can contribute to improving the links between science, technology and education by supporting local experimentation in education in a framework that could help diffuse good practices across the EU.

EU level financing for R&I

After nearly 50 years of Framework Programme, EU direct funding for R&I projects has become part of the institutional backbone of the EU. The scenarios remind us that this is not given and that the EU budget is subject to political negotiations despite its importance for the maintenance of R&I capacity in different Member States. There is a continuous need for ensuring that the EU gets value for money out of its investments in R&I including the recognition of the benefit that Member States and EU policies across the board gain from the EU Framework Programme.

Regional disparities in R&I performance

The persistence of regional disparities in R&I performance has been a problem for the EU for a long time, and one that the EU has yet to resolve. The scenarios remind us that such disparities can develop into deep divide across the economy and politics of the European Union. Furthermore, the scenarios demonstrate how some modes of recovery can be better suited for enabling the more equitable generation of economic and social value from R&I, particularly in those regions facing greater present day challenges. Emphasis in social innovation, social entrepreneurship and frugal innovation in the EU instruments may make important contributions to overcoming regional disparities.

Defining future priorities in R&I policy

R&I policy priority-setting processes and the extent to which R&I priorities are driven by concerns with the past, current and future challenges vary across Member States of the EU. This affects the definiton of joint priorities as well as the diversity and vibrancy of the EU innovation ecosystem. Scenarios that explored conditions of challenging polarisation between different national interests and between public and private interests, highlight the importance of public engagement and especially of engagement with new actors, such as social-purpose companies, in the definition of future priorities of EU R&I policy as well as in the governance and implementation of the R&I effort.

Other emerging issues of relevance to EU R&I policy

Additional emerging issues that may deserve particular attention in the coming years include:

• Several scenarios suggest that there will be both a greater need and stronger willingness for Member States to collaborate closely on matters of R&I policy.
• The widening of the range of actors as well as of policies that matter for R&I, linked to the growing policy attention to system change will become an important challenge for coordination of efforts and policy coherence.
• With their strong emphasis on competitiveness and growth objectives, the established rationales underpinning EU R&I policy are increasingly out of synch with the needs of societal and world challenges.
• As the landscape of European knowledge systems continues to evolve, R&I policy must realise its influential role in shaping broader change and adopt socio-economic disparities and environmental concerns as guiding principles.

All scenarios suggest the need for stepping up collective capability and willingness to actively engage in open and collaborative R&I relationships, both within Europe and with the world beyond Europe. This is obvious in relation to some of the global challenges Europe is aiming to address, but also with regard to emerging technologies where international alliances are decisive for establishing common standards and regulation. In order to ensure a relevant global role of Europe in the world, it is essential to build upon a strong, stable and coherent home base in R&I.

This report is also available on Zenodo.  

The Covid-19 pandemic has shattered our sense of ‘normal’, and amplified uncertainties and issues at the core of what the future may hold. The project ‘After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world’ examined possible futures of 2040 for the EU emerging from the crisis of the pandemic, as possible contexts for EU R&I. The five scenarios described in this report chart different possible post-Covid-19 evolution paths, creating new perspectives on key EU R&I policy issues.

In the fast-evolving landscape of Manufacturing-as-a-Service (MaaS), the EU faces the crucial challenge of navigating the uncertainties of emerging changes, disruptions, and opportunities in the sector. This uncertainty demands a strategic approach to guide decision-making in the European manufacturing industry up to 2040. In this context, the MASTT2040 project uses inclusive foresight methods to build a shared understanding, engage key stakeholders, and craft a strategic roadmap, addressing short, medium, and long-term goals. The project’s overall goal is to make MaaS a catalyst for circularity, embed sustainability in industrial approaches, enhance supply resilience, and propel Europe to the forefront of MaaS expertise.

Find more information here.
 

Millions of travellers cross the EU’s external borders every year and their numbers will likely increase even further. Thus, border checks will need to undergo significant transformations in the coming years, both to effectively safeguard the EU’s external borders and to improve the border crossing experience for travellers. Biometrics is one of the fields expected to significantly contribute to the attainment of these goals.

In light of the above, Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency delivered a Technology Foresight Research Study on Biometrics for the Future of Travel. The main objective of this research was the delivery of a study on the future of biometrics for its implementation in border control systems that may benefit the work of the European Border and Coast Guard (EBCG) community in a short (1-5 years), medium (5-10 years) and long term (10+ years) perspective. In particular, this research was to produce a research study that includes the prioritization and roadmapping of emerging relevant biometric technologies with the strongest potential to influence the strategic components of Integrated Border Management and the work of Border Guards themselves. The research study also produced comprehensive tailored technology foresight methodology and supporting tools, properly adapted to Frontex capabilities and organization. Furthermore, it delivered a technology taxonomy for biometrics and biometrics-enabled technological systems.


The obtained findings were to support Frontex in identifying specific research and innovation initiatives which could accelerate the integration of novel biometrics-enabled technological solutions for border checks. This study provides knowledge on how to maximize future benefits of biometrics technology in the border management environment while minimizing its risks and ensuring full compliance with the existing legal, ethical and technological constraints.

The research study consisted of five phases, which all produced their own set of insights intended to support the EBCG community in decision-making processes, compiled in the main report available here . 

The chemical industry is a significant contributor to the EU economy. It is simultaneously instrumental to the green and digital transition and exposed to its effects. A steady supply of (green) create reusable and recyclable consumer goods. On the other hand, chemical synthesis is an energy-intensive process inherently dependent on carbon-based feedstock (currently derived almost exclusively from fossil fuels). In addition, chemistry is a global industry with international value chains, where the EU both collaborates and competes with other countries for materials, knowledge and skills.

Transforming the European chemical industry into a sustainable motor for the green and digital transition will require investments in infrastructure, assets and skills. Focus should be placed on chemicals that are crucial to this Twin Transition, , or both. The long lead time required for the deployment of infrastructure and the development of skills means that such investments must be made now to achieve targets set for 2050.

In connection with these issues, the report at hand aims to give insights into a number of value chains that are strategic to EU economy. It considers which chemicals and innovations are vital to transforming these value chains as well as rendering them more resilient and future-fit. To this end, a participatory workshop-based foresight approach was implemented to provide a unique set of insights from stakeholders and translate them into actions and policy recommendations.
Chapter 1 provides a general introduction into foresight and an overview of the project, the definitions used, the methodology applied and the approach to project implementation.

Chapter 2 details the 20 Critical Chemicals and 10 key Future Innovations, needed to secure the four Strategic Value Chains under consideration: Batteries, Connected Clean & Autonomous Vehicles, Hydrogen Technologies & Systems, and Microelectronics & Industrial IoT. These value chains were selected as highly dependent on chemicals and non-overlapping with other EC research initiatives. Those Critical Chemicals and Future Innovations are listed in the tables below.

Chapter 3 presents In addition, each so-called factsheet contains roadmaps of actions needed to increase those value chains resilience as well as describes chemicals and the implementation of innovations. Thus, the roadmaps enable the identification and assessment of potential future actions.

Chapter 4 contains a set of key policy recommendations addressed to policy stakeholders. They focus on accelerating the digital and green transformation of the entire chemical industry, and were collected from experts throughout the project.

Finally, the Annex details methodologies and underlying analyses.

Chem4EU Foresight for chemicals : final report 

4CF The Futures Literacy Company is a consultancy entirely focused on strategic foresight and long-term strategies. For nearly two decades, 4CF has been on the mission to help its clients prepare for an uncertain tomorrow. The Company has executed hundreds of projects for private companies, public institutions and international entities, including the European Commission and its agencies (EUDA, ENISA), FAO, UNFCCC, UNESCO, UNEP and UNDP. 4CF is at the forefront of global innovation, and actively contributes to the development of cutting-edge foresight tools, including 4CF HalnyX (Delphi platform), 4CF Sprawlr, 4CF FLEx.

The EU Policy Lab is a space for cross-disciplinary exploration and innovation in policymaking. We apply collaborative, systemic and forward-looking approaches to help bringing the scientific knowledge of the Joint Research Centre into EU policymaking.

We experiment with the new, the unprecedented and the unknown. We seek to augment our understanding of the present, challenge and reinvent the way we think about the future.

The EU Policy Lab is also a mindset and a way of working together that combines stories and data, anticipation and analysis, imagination and action. We bring new practical and radical perspectives to tackle complex problems in a collaborative way. Together, we explore, connect and ideate to create better policies.

The Competence Centre on Foresight is part of the EU Policy Lab and supports EU policy making by providing strategic and future-oriented input, developing an anticipatory culture inside the European Commission, and continuously experimenting and developing different methods and tools to make foresight useful for decision making processes. 

Foresight and societal resilience are intimately linked. Foresight processes generate insights and relationships that help communities in dealing with uncertainty. Through Foresight – so scholars argue – communities gain a richer understanding of the potential of the present and strengthen the social fabric in its ability to act upon these insights, from coping and adaptation to transformation.
So far goes the theory …
The FUTURESILIENCE project has set out on a jour ney exploring foresight’s contribution to societal resilience in practice.
Ten “FUTURESILIENCE Labs ” located in ten different regions across Europe have embarked on a scenario process to strengthen resilience in the face of very different challenges. In the meantime, the ten Labs are in the middle of their journey - here is a sneak preview into two of the Labs:
The IMMER Lab aims at strengthening the local resilience of mobility and energy-related activities in the cross-border Strasbourg-Kehl region. To this end, the Lab is using a science fiction-based Futures Café approach where actors from municipalities co-develop and discuss a range of science-fiction based crisis scenarios such as e.g. a Tsunami in the Rhine River Valley. In its recent Futures Café workshop , after exploring a range of different scenarios, the group discovered seven actions that were useful across scenarios and therefore highly likely to underpin crisis resilience.
The COSIGHT Lab is located in the German city of Hamburg. It aims to mitigate societal polarization and enhance societal resilience by increasing conflict resolution and problem-solving skills. This involves developing resilience-promoting citizen processes. To this end it is complementing an existing participatory process, the “CoSaturday”, with the FUTURESILIENCE scenario approach. The first COSIGHT workshop focused on the integration of migrant populations – a much-contested issue in Hamburg. The first workshop gathered more than 35 integration stakeholders from a wide range of backgrounds. Participants identified key influencing factors of integration, barriers for successful integration and tools to address these barriers. COSIGHT is now looking to transfer these findings to local policy makers.
Experience from these Labs seems to confirm the theoretical argument. A particular strength lies in the rich diversity of approaches. Even though the FUTURESILIENCE project provided an overarching guideline for a scenario process, each Lab interpreted this process according to the local specific requirements and capacities as IMMER and COSIGHT illustrate. As FUTURESILIENCE evolves, we will highlight further glimpses into the manifold discoveries made during the Labs’ foresight journey.

This report presents the results of a the project S&T&I for 2050: science, technology and innovation for ecosystem performance – accelerating sustainability transitions. The project’s overarching goal was to identify and map future scientific and technological developments, which can radically improve ecosystem performance.

The project was conducted along several phases:

• Based on literature review, the project team developed three perspectives on future relations between humans and nature and humans’ role in the flourishing of planetary ecosystems. The three perspectives are: i) protecting and restoring ecosystems, ii) co-shaping socio-ecological systems, and iii) caring within hybrid collectives
• A two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) online survey explored the most dynamic scientific and technological developments. The survey engaged over 600 experts globally in enriching, assessing and prioritizing STI directions in terms of their potential to contribute to the capability of planetary ecosystems to flourish from now to 2050.
• Drawing in on the three perspectives and the results of the DAD survey, six case studies on core sustainability issues explored the three perspectives. Reflections on implications for R&I policies in the context of the European Green Deal conclude each of the six case studies: i) Law for Nature; ii) Land Use Futures; iii) Soil to Soul; iv) Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy; v) Ecosystems and Micro-and Nano Cosmos; vi) Data as Representation

Human performance has long been a dominant pursuit and driver of progress in science, technology and innovation (STI). As notions of performance are still guiding STI research, discussions on its nature are relevant and shape STI directions. Human needs and performance are inextricably linked to challenges related to the health of the planet. Considering that, a debate is warranted to shift the attention from human performance to a more inclusive performance of flourishing ecosystems.
In this context, the vision of the project “S&T&I FOR 2050. Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions” was driven by the desire for STI efforts to place ecosystem performance on par with human performance. This broadens the focus of STI to encompass multiple conceptualisations of human-nature relations and to contribute to sustainability transitions.

The project’s overarching goal was to identify and map future scientific and technological developments, which can radically improve ecosystem performance. In doing so, it provided reflections on the 2nd strategic plan of Horizon Europe (HE), in its broad direction to support the Sustainable Development Goals.

The study was conducted along several phases:

• Based on literature review, the project team developed three perspectives on future relations between humans and nature and humans’ role in the flourishing of planetary ecosystems. The three perspectives are: i) protecting and restoring ecosystems, ii) co-shaping socio-ecological systems, and iii) caring within hybrid collectives
• A two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) online survey explored the most dynamic scientific and technological developments. The survey engaged over 600 experts globally in enriching, assessing and prioritizing STI directions in terms of their potential to contribute to the capability of planetary ecosystems to flourish from now to 2050.
• Drawing in on the three perspectives and the results of the DAD survey, six case studies on core sustainability issues explored the three perspectives. Reflections on implications for R&I policies in the context of the European Green Deal conclude each of the six case studies: i) Law for Nature; ii) Land Use Futures; iii) Soil to Soul; iv) Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy; v) Ecosystems and Micro-and Nano Cosmos; vi) Data as Representation

This project aimed to provide the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) and its partners with future-oriented assets and skills to better prepare for and fulfil their mission within a dynamic and rapidly changing world. Through this project’s multiple phases and scientifically led by the Fraunhofer ISI, teams consisting of mainly asylum and migration experts from the EUAA, asylum authorities of several EU+ countries, the European Commission (DG HOME, Joint Research Centre), Frontex, Europol, UNHCR and ICMPD created a set of coherent future scenarios – narratives that enable policy and decision makers to better perceive and respond to the complexity and uncertainty of possible futures.

The scenario development process began with the identification of a number of factors that were both external to the EU+ countries and driving change in international protection. Over the course of three workshops, EUAA experts together with representatives of national asylum authorities and partner EU institutions assessed the boundaries of each factor’s possible development in the future and constructed several constellations of these fundamental factors. Such constellations of the fundamental factors were further refined and turned into four unique and viable future scenarios.

Finally, a Delphi survey gathered quantitative and qualitative expert feedback on the likelihood and time-scale for critical aspects of each scenario.

In addition to the process benefits for the people involved, the following results are now publicly available in the reports:

Overview of critical influencing factors and possible development paths;
Four scenario narratives outlining the option space for the next ten years;
Persona descriptions supporting the immersion in the respective scenario;
Results of a Delphi survey on critical aspects of the four scenarios;
Compilation of wildcards and their significance in the context of the scenarios; and
Critical challenges for actors in the context of international protection for individual scenarios and across all scenarios

The vision of FOSTER is to build a foundation from which a new Knowledge and Innovation System (KIS) for Europe’s food system can emerge. The current structure is insufficient to address the emerging challenges of nourishing people in a healthy and sustainable way. Key objective is to gain insights into how it can be built to be more inclusive and better governed. 

FOSTER shall help to transform Europe’s food system outcomes and will achieve this by: 

• building a FOSTER Platform including food system-state of the art knowledge, foresight by semi-automated Horizon scanning, trend and threats-analysis and new multi-dimensional scenarios of EU food systems to 2040; 
• implementing the FOSTER Academy – including four Summer Schools – for integrating food system-related disciplines and citizen science to enhance food system understanding across the ERA; 
• initiating and assessing a co-creation and co-learning process within six national resp. regional Citizen Driven Initiatives (CDIs), in which new knowledge, strategies and Action Research Agendas are gained; 
• scaling out and deep CDIs solutions and approaches to other territorial contexts; 
• studying different R&I mechanisms of policy support for mission-oriented R&I policy for food systems transformation, and analysing and ground-proofing them in each CDI; 
• strengthening science-policy interfaces by co-learning processes with external experts and developing recommendations for food systems R&I policies tailored to different geographies and sectors; 
• identifying the trigger points to help ‘unlock’ system lock-ins and support further dynamics towards system transformation; 
• and applying reflective monitoring on all FOSTER’s co-learning activities to develop insights into how the KIS can be broadened from an agricultural-KIS to a food system-KIS.
  

To inspire adoption of FOSTER learnings, over 20 workshops and a final conference will be conducted; scientific position papers and policy briefs will be widely communicated. 

The VERA project aimed to provide relevant strategic intelligence for the future governance and priority-setting of the research, technology, development and innovation (RTDI) system in Europe and for better adapting science, technology and innovation policy to the shifting global environment and upcoming socio-economic challenges. For this purpose VERA carried out an in-depth stocktaking of RTDI related forward looking activities in Europe and internationally and a thorough review of trends and drivers of long-term change of European RTDI governance. On the base of these insights VERA developed scenarios on the evolution of the European Research Area, assessed the critical issues for the ERA’s future capabilities emerging from these scenarios, explored subsequent strategic options and ultimately generated a set of policy recommendations for responsive and future oriented multi-level, multi-domain RTDI policy strategies.

VERA was conceptualised as a continuously progressing two-way communication process among ERA actor groups from society, industry, academia and policy across domains, levels and regions. It consisted of setting up a strategic conversation between these stakeholders that evolved through several carefully tailored stages in order to jointly discover shared visions and strategic options around the ERA’s future perspectives towards 2020 and far beyond. VERA has explored the gradual evolution following from current patterns of change – but has also explicitly embraced transformative and disruptive developments with a long-term horizon.

The VERA project was proposed by a consortium of ten internationally renowned institutes from 9 EU countries involving a team of more than 20 researchers with outstanding expertise both in terms of relevant knowledge and forward looking methodology and excellent contacts with RTDI stakeholders in Europe and the world.

The Vision was developed as part of the project Elaboration of the Strategy on Strengthening the Efficiency of Public Administration 2014-2020.

The vision building process involved over 40 representatives of public administration agencies and a variety of stakeholders in two day-long workshops. The process comprised four main stages:

• an exploration of drivers of societal change by 2025;
• defining an aspiration for 2025;
• defining success scenarios for 2025 
• defining transformational factors for public administratio reform.

In the same project, a Dynamic Argumentative Delphi was deployed for assesing the future impact of a set of policy measures in relation the established vision.

The resulting vision document and the selected policies has been included in the National Strategy on Strengthening the Efficiency of Public Administration 2014-2020, which has been adopted by Governement Decision.

The FOReSiGHT project
FOReSiGHT - Flexibility and Resilience in Digital Transformation and Intelligent Automation - Advanced Skills and Tools for Academia and Entrepreneurs is a 30-month roject implemented between 2020 - 2023 by a consortium of 7 partners universities, SMEs, NGOs) from 5 countries: Romania, Germany, Italy, Croatia and Belgium.
Overall, FOReSiGHT aims at creating a digital collaboration platform between universities and companies to anticipate and deliver future skills on intelligent automation, digital transformation & algorithmic governance, and foresight, thus fostering resilience and flexibility.

The Foresight Kit for Entrepreneurial Minds
This generation of students needs to embrace the idea of the future with a sense of activism and design. We encourage them to regard the future as a malleable and constructible set of possibilities. This attitude is in stark contrast with people- the youth included- feeling they are witnesses to the future unfolding, or merely in the position to adapt to change as it occurs. Future minded students are the ones exploring, imagining and deliberating potential futures. Students with entrepreneurial ambitions are invited to use the tools in this kit to go even further than imagining and debating the future; they are invited to co-create futures that are desirable for the ecosystems/communities/ clients they aim to serve.
We trust this foresight kit for entrepreneurial minds will provide useful guidance for young people interested in shaping the future. While this is an intellectual journey aimed at university students, the kit is meant to support facilitators in organizing and running a foresight experience. Thus, the kit describes the procedural steps for organizing a foresight process for students interested in generating entrepreneurial ideas that may address the challenges and opportunities of the future, as opposed to merely speculating the opportunities of the present.

Doiran ecosystem as a part of Natura 2000 (GR 123 0003) protected areas is located in the border between Greece and the Republic of North Macedonia, and constitutes a rich and invaluable area for the wetland in terms of natural beauty and developmental perspective.

Local and peripheral organizations have been closely working together for years as the lake requires close and structured collaboration in order to effectively face and address common problems and challenges such as:

Taking measures for the vital protection of the ecosystem
The lack of a strategic plan and stable mechanism for managing the ecosystem has caused serious problems as:
a) physical and chemical water elements are only periodically checked by third parties

b) Risk management is not organized and proactive process

c) The collaboration between the two countries becomes difficult and ineffective.

Taking measures for the compliance of Greece and the Republic of North Macedonia to the European law in order to conform to the conditions and entry processes to the EU.
The co-management of the lake so far is based in incomplete and nonrecurring actions
The protection and management plan of the lake should be based on mutual values and principles adopted by local associations
There is no technical infrastructure for the protection, management, and development of the ecosystem
The exploitation of natural resources can contribute to a great extent to the local development attracting more visitors and enhancing agricultural (traditional products) and cultural inheritance.

The main objectives are related to:
a) The organizations-associations- comprising the most important statutory parties in the implementation of environmental protection strategies and biodiversity as well as sustainable development;

b)A new, mutual and organized framework, structures and infrastructures defining stable collaboration principles to enhance environmental and socioeconomic competitiveness in the specific area.

c)Short-term and long-term benefits of the projects for the residents.

d) Development of an entrepreneurial mentality towards sustainable activities supporting an eco-friendly culture, exploiting the natural resources and the opportunities that the area offers.

e) Raising awareness in environmental issues and encourangement of a more responsible future generation.

The project aims to establish an interdisciplinary research center, providing long-term expert capacity for socioeconomic environmental research. The center will develop methods for policy impact evaluation, foresight, and behavioral research and provide support to the MoE and public authorities in policy-making elaborating on the European Green Deal (GD) based on the research of current and expected impacts on the environment, the economy and society. The Center consists of 12 research institutions and universities with broad expertise.
Technology Centre Prague is respnsible for developing of foresight methods to identify new trends in the form of development scenarios to map transformation processes in society, research and technologies, constituting assumptions for the identification of current and future socioeconomic and environmental challenges and their impacts.

The report outlines three scenarios of possible futures for Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and in deciding on priorities for strategic investments for the future. 

The scenarios in the report are based on an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 R&I experts from the Western Balkans, representing academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations, and central and sub-national governments. To provide inspiration for the implementation of future-proof R&I policies, the report also includes initial roadmaps. 

These are designed to inspire decision-makers by setting targets and the actions needed to develop their R&I systems for the benefit of all citizens in the Western Balkans. The project was launched in July 2020 and the final study was presented at the EU-WB Ministerial Meeting in October 2021.

Stewardship of land and sea, including access and usage rights in rural regions, use of land and sea space, preservation of biodiversity, and sourcing of energy and raw materials.

The evolving complexity of global challenges is increasingly affecting the steering of European Research and Innovation which aims at addressing important present and future societal concerns. The idea of ‘watching futures’ to anticipate future possibilities and analyse the consequences of current choices to inform and shape a forward-looking EU R&I policy is continuously gaining ground.

In this light, as part of the ‘European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe’ study launched by the European Commission in connection to the Horizon Europe Foresight Network, a series of online workshops will take place during the Spring and early Summer of 2023.

These workshops, which will run for two hours each, will discuss insights stemming from thematic policy briefs compiled by expert panels, addressing possible future scenarios for critical issues (i.e., social confrontations, use and management of land and sea, science for policy, etc.). Each workshop will feature experts from the panels who developed the policy brief, guest speakers from relevant EU R&I projects and policy-makers, and will involve extensive engagement with participants.

This is the final report from a foresight study that aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027). The study lasted for 18 months and involved a wide range of activities that this report aims at presenting.

These activities aimed at providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making contributions – issues, trends, perspectives, ideas - that could contribute novel elements to the more structured processes of strategic planning that were to follow. The work followed two important directions that were recommended by EFFLA (2012)1 as core elements of bringing foresight into EU R&I policy: knowledge-based review and broad engagement.

Knowledge based review was conducted with the help of the 40 experts who constituted the team that worked on the project. All these experts have contributed as authors to the authorship of the different chapters of this report. About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and ideas about their policy implications, and through membership in the on-line platform of the project at www.futures4europe.eu, which reached 307 people. Last, we acknowledge the 943 experts who responded to our final consultation survey on the implications of our foresight for the directions of EU R&I policy.

The foresight process
The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities:
• As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis.
• An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on www.futures4europe.eu.
• An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions.
• On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the areas of interest resulted in five deep dives on the following topics:
> Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering
> Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative
> The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership
> Global Commons
> Transhumanist Revolutions
• Further areas of interest identified since were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments
> Social Confrontations
> Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities
> The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities
> The Future of Health
• A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days.
• Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collect suggestions from further experts and citizens about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy.

This foresight study has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. 

Trends that are likely to shape the ecosystem of science advice to policy in Europe in the future and their impacts

The evolving complexity of global challenges is increasingly affecting the steering of European Research and Innovation which aims at addressing important present and future societal concerns. The idea of ‘watching futures’ to anticipate future possibilities and analyse the consequences of current choices to inform and shape a forward-looking EU R&I policy is continuously gaining ground.

In this light, as part of the ‘European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe’ study launched by the European Commission in connection to the Horizon Europe Foresight Network, a series of online workshops will take place during the Spring and early Summer of 2023.

These workshops, which will run for two hours each, will discuss insights stemming from thematic policy briefs compiled by expert panels, addressing possible future scenarios for critical issues (i.e., social confrontations, use and management of land and sea, science for policy, etc.). Each workshop will feature experts from the panels who developed the policy brief, guest speakers from relevant EU R&I projects and policy-makers, and will involve extensive engagement with participants. 

We organise a series of three workshops: the first two are devoted to devise scenarios, while the third one will derive policy implications.

On behalf of the European Commission, DG Research and Innovation, the “Foresight on Demand” consortium is conducting a foresight-like project “European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe”. Eight deep-dive studies are to be conducted in 2023, leading to policy briefs to support European Union and national policy-makers. One of these topics is the “Futures of interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities” with a time horizon of 2040.

Please express your interest to contribute to building scenarios on the “Futures of interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities” by filling in the form below. This Deep Dive project considers – among other issues – the possibility of identifying, differentiating, and controlling criminal and lawful economic activities, the relevant trend and drivers shaping the possible futures for the interpenetration of these activities, the level of control technically feasible and socially and economically desirable to fight the interpenetration of criminal economic activities. The policy brief will highlight the major implications for EU and national policy-makers, with an emphasis on research and innovation policies.

We organise a series of three workshops: the first two of those are devoted to devise scenarios, while the third one will derive policy implications:

• the 1st scenario WS is to be held from 10:00 to 13:00 on 12 June 2023,
• the 2nd scenario WS is to be held from 16:30 to 19:30 on 26 June 2023,
• the policy implications WS is to be held in September (tba).

We organise a series of four workshops: the first three are devoted to devise scenarios, while the fourth one will derive policy implications.

On behalf of the European Commission, DG Research and Innovation, the “Foresight on Demand” consortium is conducting a foresight-like project “European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe”. Eight deep-dive studies are to be conducted in 2023, leading to policy briefs to support European Union and national policy-makers. One of these topics is the “Futures of interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities” with a time horizon of 2040.

Please express your interest to contribute to building scenarios on the “Futures of interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities” by filling in the form below. This Deep Dive project considers – among other issues – the possibility of identifying, differentiating, and controlling criminal and lawful economic activities, the relevant trend and drivers shaping the possible futures for the interpenetration of these activities, the level of control technically feasible and socially and economically desirable to fight the interpenetration of criminal economic activities. The policy brief will highlight the major implications for EU and national policy-makers, with an emphasis on research and innovation policies.

We organise a series of four workshops: the first three of those are devoted to devise scenarios, while the fourth one will derive policy implications:

• the 1st scenario WS is to be held from 10:00 to 13:00 on 12 June 2023,
• the 2nd scenario WS is to be held from 16:30 to 19:30 on 26 June 2023,
• the 3rd scenario WS is to be held from 16:00 to 18:00 on 31 July 2023,
• the policy implications WS is to be held from 16:00 to 18:00 on 4 September 2023.

We organise a series of four workshops: the first three are devoted to devise scenarios, while the fourth one will derive policy implications.

On behalf of the European Commission, DG Research and Innovation, the “Foresight on Demand” consortium is conducting a foresight-like project “European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe”. Eight deep-dive studies are to be conducted in 2023, leading to policy briefs to support European Union and national policy-makers. One of these topics is the “Futures of interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities” with a time horizon of 2040.

Please express your interest to contribute to building scenarios on the “Futures of interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities” by filling in the form below. This Deep Dive project considers – among other issues – the possibility of identifying, differentiating, and controlling criminal and lawful economic activities, the relevant trend and drivers shaping the possible futures for the interpenetration of these activities, the level of control technically feasible and socially and economically desirable to fight the interpenetration of criminal economic activities. The policy brief will highlight the major implications for EU and national policy-makers, with an emphasis on research and innovation policies.

We organise a series of four workshops: the first three of those are devoted to devise scenarios, while the fourth one will derive policy implications:

• the 1st scenario WS is to be held from 10:00 to 13:00 on 12 June 2023,
• the 2nd scenario WS is to be held from 16:30 to 19:30 on 26 June 2023,
• the 3rd scenario WS is to be held from 16:00 to 18:00 on 31 July 2023,
• the policy implications WS is to be held from 16:00 to 18:00 on 4 September 2023.

We organise a series of three workshops: the first two are devoted to devise scenarios, while the third one will derive policy implications.

Alongside digitalisation and automation trends, the shift towards greener and more sustainable economies is a game changer in EU labour markets. Grounded in long-term transformative trends spanning several decades, the green transitions are picking up speed. The resulting changes in skill needs will have impacts far beyond the key occupations driving them, affecting all economic sectors. An important challenge for the coming years is accelerating up- and reskilling so that people have the green skills to thrive in greener jobs.

In this workshop, we seek to develop scenarios for the future of green skills and jobs. The series is part of the "European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe" project. It supports the work of the Horizon Europe Foresight Network and provides intelligence and supports the development of a European R&I foresight community.

We organise a series of three workshops: the first two are devoted to devise scenarios, while the third one will derive policy implications.

Alongside digitalisation and automation trends, the shift towards greener and more sustainable economies is a game changer in EU labour markets. Grounded in long-term transformative trends spanning several decades, the green transitions are picking up speed. The resulting changes in skill1 needs will have impacts far beyond the key occupations driving them, affecting all economic sectors. An important challenge for the coming years is accelerating up- and reskilling so that people have the green skills to thrive in greener jobs.
In this workshop, we seek to develop scenarios for the future of green skills and jobs. The series is part of the "European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe" project. It supports the work of the Horizon Europe Foresight Network and provides intelligence and supports the development of a European R&I foresight community.

The evolving complexity of global challenges is increasingly affecting the steering of European Research and Innovation which aims at addressing important present and future societal concerns. The idea of ‘watching futures’ to anticipate future possibilities and analyse the consequences of current choices to inform and shape a forward-looking EU R&I policy is continuously gaining ground. 

In this light, as part of the ‘European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe’ study launched by the European Commission in connection to the Horizon Europe Foresight Network, a second series of online workshops will take place during October – November 2023.

The workshops, which will run for two hours each, will discuss insights stemming from thematic policy briefs compiled by expert panels, addressing possible future scenarios for critical issues (i.e., Interpretation of Criminal and Lawful Activities, Green Skills and Jobs, Big Tech, etc.). Following the presentation of each policy brief, each workshop will feature two focus groups: one involving the group of experts from the panel who developed the policy brief and one including representatives from topic-relevant EU-funded R&I projects. All events will foster extensive engagement with participants, including policymakers.

Dragon-STAR was built upon the work performed by two previous FP7 INCO projects (BILAT-SILK and ACCESSChina4EU), aiming to support the Sino-European collaboration in four levels, namely:
• Enhancing the quality of the Chinese participation in the European Framework Programs.
• Supporting the reciprocity originating from the signed EU-China Scientific Cooperation Agreement and the other bilateral initiatives.
• Supporting the bilateral cooperation in the broader field of innovation and especially technological cooperation between industrial players.
• Supporting the ongoing bilateral Scientific Cooperation dialogue and the other related initiatives.
The planned work was focused on addressing the four main project objectives and several positive outputs produced within the project’s lifetime. However, more important is the fact that DRAGON-STAR managed to establish stable collaborations with all the major stakeholders in Europe and China. There is an established collaboration with other EU funded projects, while joint events have been organized with the EU Delegation in China, DG Research, DG Agriculture, and EURAXESS Links China.
During the 36 months of the Dragon-Star life, the project team worked and succeeded for establishing a cooperation platform between European and Chinese stakeholders towards enhancing the bilateral cooperation in research and innovation.
The project has established a sound cooperation with the permanent EU representation in Beijing and worked together for implementing various activities. Similar cooperation has been established with the EC, Member States, Chinese Organizations and Innovation Agencies.
A flagship activity was the organization of a considerable number of promotional activities for H2020, and the establishment of a help-desk (CECO) and the implementation of a national network of Regional Contact Points in China, for promoting the program. At the same time, a database with funding opportunities for European researchers is constantly updated providing support to the Europeans interest in China.
Moreover, addressing the need to understand the rapid changes in the Chinese research and innovation landscape and draft a suitable cooperation strategy, DRAGON-STAR performed a foresight scenario study, revealing, four plausible scenarios for the future of the Chinese research & innovation landscape.

We organised a series of three workshops: the first two were devoted to devising scenarios, while the third one was meant to derive policy implications.

We work towards antecipating possible scenarios for Europe in 2040 with regard to big business of high-tech industries. As we explore the futures of Big Tech and the implications to Europe there is a number of driver and buffer actors, factors and sectors to take into account.

The series is part of the "European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe" project. It supports the work of the Horizon Europe Foresight Network and provides intelligence and supports the development of a European R&I foresight community.

Background

An increasingly volatile global geopolitical context is emerging with growing threats not only to global security and governance but also to the EU and neighbourhood countries. Developments in the world and NATO point to Europe’s vulnerability – one that has long been explained, but had yet to be taken seriously. The Russian invasion of Ukraine brought home the realization that the world system is at a crossroads. Talk of multi-polarity, turbulence and possible configurations of the global system has combined with the concern about the future actorness of the EU, or as the 2021 Strategic Foresight Report of the European Commission puts it: “the EU’s capacity and freedom to act”.

If new international blocks and confrontations emerge, this disruption might even go beyond Europe, threatening traditional values, as well as lives and material prosperity of many. While the sudden changes are pushing the EU to reassess its defense capabilities and take a military stance by providing weapons to Ukraine, they must also be seen against the backdrop of an accelerating climate crisis. Impacts of climate change are a direct threat to many regions in the EU, but they also put indirect pressure on migration and the economy. As the war is fueling climate change drivers, many Europeans are torn between contradictory moods: indifference and solidarity, fragmentation and cohesion, empowerment and desperation.

A important driver affecting the EU’s capacity to act is the US foreign policy. Will the US maintain its military influence in Europe, delivering weapons, personnel, and intelligence, as well as pursuing its interests in Eastern Europe or will it take a post-hegemonic position, withdrawing from the continent and leaving conflict resolution up to the EU and the rest of NATO? Such geopolitical reconfigurations are closely entangled with the domestic developments in the US. The EU’s dependence on the transatlantic partnership and NATO is both a source of strength and weakness. As the recent period has shown, an un-cooperative US President and an ambivalent US-China relationship might put the US in a position of dictating terms to the EU in the context of major geopolitical upheaval and reconfigurations, where the rise of new regional powers and the emergence of new actors create uncertainty about future coalitions.

However, the EU is vulnerable along several further dimensions: from access to resources to insufficient capabilities in key technologies including military technologies and dependence on the US for military deterrence, as well as on China for some basic communication technologies. The EU is faced with the urgency of reducing its economic and technological dependencies but the situation remains
delicate in the view of possible shifts in the US government policies and continued dependence on natural resources from other parts of the world. In taking on a more ethical global stance, the EU opens itself up to criticism about double standards and inconsistencies in its policy narratives.

There are already efforts underway to improve the preparedness and make the EU more ‘futureproof’, for instance by anticipating consequences of, and testing responses to, possible shocks and crises. While the EU is frequently assumed to be in a position to claim technological leadership, the arising key question is whether it will rethink its investment focus towards specific dual-use technologies, thus creating capabilities and becoming competitive in the domain of military technologies and industry.

These (and other) uncertainties feed the fear of the future and gives rise to the new geo-political realism: weaponization of everything, increased budgets for deterrence and budget cuts on sociopolitical matters. Accompanying energy shortages and reversing climate neutral energy policies are contributing to the looming economic crisis and societal fragmentation. A central question of the
near and long-term future is: what will the geopolitical power distribution look like?

This report sketches some alternative scenarios of how the geopolitical reconfiguration might evolve in the coming 15 to 20 years. It is based on the work of a team of experts, covering different aspects of geopolitical reconfigurations and future challenges for the EU’s positioning. Next to individual papers as inputs to this report, several virtual and one in-person workshop were organised for further developing and consolidation of the main drivers as well as for developing diverging scenarios on the future of geopolitics and the role of the EU. Additional experts were included in the work as well and consulted to give feedback. A dedicated workshop with EU foresight experts from the Commission services and the member states, helped to provide important insights to complete the scenario development and outline some key policy options.

The national research project 4Tech (Development of selected technologies during and after COVID-19 crisis) under the financial support of the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic, contract No. TL 040000390. The project 4Tech focusing on four technologies: digitalization and cloud, additive production, telemedicine and digital (distant) forms of education.
The main objective is to capture the impulses induced by the COVID-19 crisis with existing and potential impacts mainly on the rural development drivers.
The research has the following specific objectives:
1) To map extent and forms of the 4 technologies application in the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide with a particular emphasis on the Czech Republic
2) To analyse fulfilment of needs in the respective technical areas and to identify impacts on multi- actors´ collaboration, socio-technical system and society.
3) To explore societal changes of values, attitudes, expectations and concerns referring to the use of the selected technologies during the COVID-19 crisis.
4) To conduct foresight study on technology development in the respective areas with the horizon 2040.

Green Hydrogen offers a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels, changing the world of energy supply completely – geopolitically (some countries depend on their own Renewable Energy sources for their energy supply and not on other countries) and in terms of market structure (no more dependence on a small number of all-powerful oil, carbon and gas companies). Despite today’s inefficiencies in converting energy from nature to Hydrogen and back to power, Hydrogen could be a versatile energy carrier and a central element for energy storage in more abundant but more volatile renewable energy systems. Hydrogen needs to be produced, stored, and transported. Scientific and political discourses range from “hydrogen technology will provide us with the abundance of energy” to “building up hydrogen infrastructure including the necessary renewable energy sources is inefficient and will not lead to any kind of abundance.” For sure is that a fundamental change toward hydrogen as an energy carrier will have deep consequences for consumption and production patterns, global trade, and the reconfiguration of infrastructures.

***

Climate change and the limitations – physically and politically/economically - of fossil fuels foster the need to decarbonise and change to alternative energy production, storage, and carrier systems. Technology in renewable energy improves, and in general, energy efficiency is increasing, but currently, absolute demand for power is increasing.

The technology to form Hydrogen is improving, and more units are built. Also, catalyst technology is advancing. One must expect strong opposition from current stakeholders in fossil and nuclear technology. Although, there is also the option to use nuclear power to form Hydrogen, which many people see as critical. Investments in the infrastructure are high. While mixing Hydrogen with methane for heating is almost feasible today with minor adaptations to the gas pipelines, building up an entire parallel infrastructure for handling pure Hydrogen safely is a massive adaptation in infrastructure. It remains unclear how a transition can be managed and financed and if access to critical raw materials is given. Before hydrogen technology could enter the market in full force, the low efficiency in converting power to Hydrogen power needs to be improved or compensated.

Renewable energy production and catalyst technologies require rare earth metals, precious metals, and large amounts of copper, aluminium, and even sand for construction. Most of these raw materials cannot be found within the EU. How to secure access to these raw materials when there is a race for these resources? In addition, the EU has only limited potential for renewable energy production. Harvesting consequently, e.g., solar energy potentials, would transform the infrastructure significantly. One challenge might be that there could be a mismatch between the availability of solar or wind energy and water. Conflict regarding the use of water is likely in these areas. The electrolysis of water in massive quantities will also put pressure on the water system, which climate change impacts can worsen. In general, water might be scarce when there is more abundance of renewable resources.Any burning (also Hydrogen) under ambient air will lead to the formation of nitrogen oxide, which is a significant cause of air pollution (PM, acidification and eutrophication, precursor for ozone).

Social confrontations signify the struggle about how we want to shape our futures. Rooted in different narratives represented by different social groups they are often competing for the sovereignty of interpretation of what a particular future may look like and how we are to achieve it. These diverging perspectives are usually rooted in past collective experiences and value systems and their interpretations and constitute a point of reference for a personal identity that reinforces a person belonging to a certain group. Social confrontations are not a singular phenomenon; instead, we live in a world of multiple social confrontations, and they co-exist, overlap, and compete. The divides social confrontations create can go across all spheres of life: education, care, health, nutrition, energy, mobility, communication, race, gender, political power, migration, etc.

This policy brief explores how these developments have been perceived in science and society and how they are likely to impact the futures of democracy in Europe. To this end, we present four scenarios that chart diverging pathways on how social confrontations could evolve in the next 15 years under various drivers and trends and what role they could play for the democratic development in the EU. Finally, the policy brief presents conclusions implications for R&I policymaking from the scenarios.

The four scenarios discuss various development paths - they are intended to explore divergent possibilities and do not constitute a normative position. They do not always depict a preferable future. From our view, scenario 1 (“A Resilient and Consensual European Confederation”) is the most positive one of the four and it is helpful to filter the preferable developments that can be influenced by R&I policy making. But also, for the other three, less preferable scenarios (“European Democracy defending itself against totalitarian tendencies”, “The European Fortress”, “Cultural Hegemony Through Global Capitalism”) it is necessary to identify negative developments that could be contained or prevented by R&I policy making. Each scenario is equally important, however, in that it explores alternatives.

In concluding we present implications for R&I policy making in four categories. The first category raises the question how R&I policy on the macro-level can have an impact toward more equity and equality and can shift the benefits of R&I investment more towards society as a whole. This part discusses option on how to apply social criteria for public R&I funds, such as human dignity, solidarity and justice, environmental sustainability, transparency and co-decision-making and their relevance for projects and companies. A further option is to combine social innovations with technological innovation in order to give marginalized groups a chance of participating from the benefit of innovation outputs.

The second part is dedicated to the notion of more democratisation and participation in the process of R&I priority setting and how different social groups can be involved. This includes, for example, structures that prepare decision making on R&I investments. New approaches to democratize the decision-making processes on how investments in R&I are taken may lead the way forward. Tu such end, it might be important to include employees and other social groups in the decision-making process, so to have a better representation of people who will be affected by the consequences in the future, e.g. the younger generation. An additional set of suggested changes involves the governance structures of decision-making processes as such: new procedures need to be learned and taught to achieve results that are acceptable for society as a whole and for social groups in particular.

How R&I policy could be geared towards the stimulation of more socio-ecological transformation is the focus of the third part, discussing the point on how to limit the footprint of R&I outcomes. The climate crisis will be a major cause of adversity and desperation in oursociety in the future. It will bring about more inequity, more inequality and more social confrontation. Accordingly, containing and mitigating the effects of the climate crisis needs to be the focus of socially responsible R&I policy that gives answers to the question if ecological transformation and economic growth are contradictions or if they can be reconciled.

The fourth and final part of the policy implications looks into some future European R&I focus areas of relevance to the four scenarios, especially on artificial intelligence and technology platforms as well as on the future of housing and living. The latter one is discussing options of affordable housing that respond to the changing lifestyles and climate change paradigm. Topics for Artificial Intelligence and
Information Technology include new approaches to assess the quality and reliability of information and sources as well as socially responsible products that pay tribute to our diverse populations and cultures.

Big Tech is rewiring the world. These very large private companies are leaders in research and development (R&D) and now wield unprecedented and unparalleled influence in the economy and beyhond. In this redefined world, Europe faces a number of agenda-setting questions. This policy brief aims to anticipate the implications of ‘Big Tech’ for Europe’s future by 2040.

The future(s) of Big Tech: Questions, challenges, strategies for Europe

Big Tech are here to stay. But they do not stay the same. They have a hunger for innovation. In terms of R&D, the top 5 US Big Tech spend in a single year more than the double of what the EU-27 committed collectively to the Horizon Europe, which runs for seven years. Big Tech corporates leverage cloud infrastructure, digital platform business models, and increasingly AI technologies to capture expansive market positions and to achieve superior performance. Another obvious fact is that these economic titans are not from Europe.

A set of questions thus suggest themselves: In a market-driven economy, does it matter for Europe? If it matters, will conventional remedies like regulation and competition policy be enough to cope with the ramifications? Is it time to go post-neoliberal phase and engage in informational industrial activism of a disruptive kind? Or, on the contrary, will bottom-up decentralised entrepreneurial incrementalism sort out any temporary European competitiveness and governance failures?

In a new report to the European Commission, these four questions are dealt with by means of a scenario-building exercise. Four authors, who also counted with inputs from 30 experts from industry and academia, make an attempt to anticipate how the European Union can regain its edge in a world re-wired by Big Tech.

Four scenarios put forward alternative challenges for the year 2040 from a Research & Innovation perspective (see Box). Scenario 1 ‘Winners Tech All’ is a world of high openness and mega-economies of scale and scope. In contrast, scenario 2 ‘Pax Technologica’ could be seen as a robustly negotiated multipolar environment. Scenario 3, ‘Re-matching’, envisions the recovery of a mixed tech economy where alternatives to incumbent Big Tech are viable. Finally, Scenario 4 is called ‘Closet Liberalism’and portrays a low-obstruction/wide-arena world where self-organised economic dynamics propel Europe back onto the global competitive map.

The policy implications are considered. The policy posture across scenarios and strategic stances for each scenario is rooted in three basic premises, i.e. the imperative to: protect pluralism (economic and societal), maintain a cosmopolitan outlook (in world affairs), and safeguard natural commons (including Earth and orbital resources). Based on these assumptions and the scenario analysis, number of strategic conclusions are drawn.

Out of the general and scenario-specific portfolios that were generated, a number headline policy options can be considered:

- The EU should reinforce and develop its own regulations and anti-monopolistic actions to constrain the market power of Big Tech Companies, but these are not sufficient to ensure autonomous economic development and well-being in the EU;

- It is needed that a new generation of European productive actors emerges to generate a productive capacity of the old continent in new infrastructuring fields, and if these are built as cross-European state-owned entities this is an option not to be disregarded.

- The EU Framework Programme and national research and innovation (R&I) budgets should be benchmarked not only against their past performance but also compared to the spending and strategies of Big Tech;

- ‘Big bet’ investments are needed in Europe, coupled with more serendipity-inducing experimental approaches.

Scenario sketches

Scenario 1: Winners tech all

This is a story of modernisation orchestrated around digital high-tech. The economy is not run by Big Tech but on infrastructures these private companies own and hone. Growing dependencies can be tolerated because benefits are shared and businesses are empowered to pursue their plans. The operating framework inherited from Globalisation assures a modicum of stability, namely informal institutions like the G7 or the G20 and formal institutions like the IMF and the World Bank. The US remains the sole superpower and maintains its role as agenda-setter. The room for manoeuvre for the EU is limited and it takes its place in the international division of labour.

Scenario 2: Pax technologica

The economy is a negotiated tension between pro-global business interests and pro-local (local referring to groups of countries with aligned interests cooperating and competing with each other, forming coopetitive clubs) political constraints. The drive to take advantage of economies of scale and scope has been tamed by enhanced regulation and hardened borders. Supply-chains are splintered and directed towards suppliers within the mega-regions composed of preferential partners, increasing costs but reducing uncertainty. Existing large tech firms must accommodate each other. Existing platform models are entrenched but are forced to grant access to their digital and logistic facilities, leading newcomers to not investing in their own subversive infrastructure. Stability is a value, not so much efficiency. The US retains its role as an economic-financial and political-military switchboard, but for a diminishing part of the globe. China is still challenging the dominance of the US both politically and economically. Other regional powers emerge. The EU is a switchboard of external and internal pressures, and this is the “Brussels Consensus”.

Scenario 3: Re-matching

What shapes the development of individual nations regions is their own path in a pluralist international scene. Pro-active productive policy makes sense, especially if coordinated among players. After years of blitz-scaling the tide turned, and Big Tech went into a fizzdown. Cross-regional/trans-sectoral innovative players gained mass and found expansive growth niches at key intersections of a complex (mix) economy with an active role of the public sector associated to national governments and international organizations. Commons governance generate citizen engagement and global fragmentation is controlled. An overstretched self-consumed US has to divide protagonism with other world powers. The EU is a network builder, it supports the catalysing and protection of the new core-inputs of the modernising economy.

Scenario 4: Closet liberalism

In this world commercial and financial integration proceeds and power continues to trespass national borders and overwhelm States. Large multinationals are seen to have a large impact in public governance, but tech monopolies matured becoming expensive and bad quality. There is a mesh of networks and competing authorities create an opportunity for decentralisation, especially at the local and city levels. The US serves its own interests and is more reluctant to assume its responsibilities in global public good provision. The EU preaches the superiority of the market order, but inside the EU everyone tries to re-interpret the rules of the game in its own benefit (fiscal responsibility is for the population not for businesses).

The online workshop on October 18–19, 2021, was the first in a series of interactive encounters involving foresight experts and practitioners from both EU services and the Member States. It focussed on exploring future dimensions and elements of contextual developments that may have important repercussions for EU R&I policies in general, and the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe in particular. An overarching goal of the workshop, as well as the series of interactive meetings, was to provide initial impetus for a broad and in-depth discussion on the big picture and framework conditions for EU R&I policymaking.

Making use of the four “Imaginaries for a Sustainable Europe* in 2050” presented by the European Environment Agency and the Eionet**

Hydrogen is „just“ an elementary molecule consisting of two hydrogen-atoms. Why is there so much fuss about this simple molecule that even a whole economy should or could be built upon it? The reaction of hydrogen (H2) with oxygen releases a lot of energy while forming pure water. In the other direction, water can be divided into hydrogen (H2) and oxygen with the help of electricity (there are of cause also other hydrogen building reactions mostly built on fossil fuels/biomass); this is simple chemistry. Compared to fossil fuels, water is nearly unlimited on the planet.

This autumn, experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, Prof. Benjamin Sovacool, together with the other members of the expert team, are developing, among others, this 'technological fix' scenario.

Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!   

This autumn, experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'green dream' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

This autumn, experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'coalition of sustainable communities' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

In this blog post - Hydrogen Economy in "Europe 2040", I raised the first set of questions relevant to our scenario process. Meanwhile, we had a series of interviews with our experts, drafted a list of influencing factors and defined the scope of the scenarios.

This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'deepening divisions' scenario.

Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!   

The project “S&T&I for 2050” is structured around five intertwined tasks:

There are an estimated billions of tonnes of strategic minerals such as nickel, cobalt and copper, lying on the ocean’s floor. Technological advance, financial viability, and regulatory frameworks are slowly aligning to permit deep-sea mining (DSM). While many rejoice in these developments, a variety of actors are calling for a moratorium on the nascent industry. Most notably, the European Commission released a Joint Communication stating that not enough knowledge about the risks of DSM is available and that more research is to be conducted to make DSM sustainable. With deep-sea mining closer than ever to becoming a reality on the one hand, and calls for a moratorium on the other hand, it is important to discuss future directions of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) for a flourishing deep-sea ecosystem. 

What could a European energy system that includes hydrogen look like in 2040 in the context of different global, political, economic and social constellations in and around the continent?

Proposed scenarios about the future should come with a pinch of salt. Without being perfectly accurate, they help prepare policymakers for better or worse. The REGROUP project funded under the Horizon Europe programme aims to advise the EU on how to address post-pandemic policy and institutional challenges by analysing the societal and political consequences of COVID-19 and considering the normative implications of the pandemic.

Considering prevalent trends, such as population growth, increasing demand for animal protein, land use change, and resource scarcity, a blueprint for future crops may help prioritise sustainable and efficient agriculture practices, as well as improved food systems. CropBooster-P, funded under the Horizon 2020 Programme, is a project that aimed to find a solution to this question by looking into innovative crop-breeding technologies for improving climate adaptability, resource use efficiency, yield, and quality.

The key to biodiversity’s preservation? Fostering collaborations between the scientific community and policymakers by using a future-oriented mindset.

A journey in participatory democracy through challenges (and opportunities) of future-thinking approaches.

The Inspire project has been running at MOMus since 2012. In a fascinating anarchic creative environment, young artists are invited to create original artworks in one week under the guidance of an established artist. At the same time, curators are invited to set up the exhibition just hours before the official opening.

Social confrontations signify the struggle about how we want to shape our futures. Rooted in different narratives represented by different social groups they are often competing for the sovereignty of interpretation of what a particular future may look like and how we are to achieve it. Social confrontations are not a singular phenomenon; instead, we live in a world of multiple social confrontations, and they co-exist, overlap, and compete. The divides social confrontations create can go across all spheres of life: education, care, health, nutrition, energy, mobility, communication, race, gender, political power, migration, etc. This blog post explores how these developments are likely to impact the futures of democracy in Europe. To this end, we present four scenarios that chart diverging pathways on how social confrontations could evolve in the next 15 years under various drivers and trends and what role they could play for the democratic development in the EU. The four scenarios discuss various development paths - they are intended to explore diver-gent possibilities and do not always depict a preferable future.

The immense social and technological evolution of the Anthropocene continues transforming the Earth’s surface and its dynamics through extensive (mis-)use of its resources, both on the land and in the sea. These challenges were addressed in the Deep Dive on rural and marine areas in Europe in 2050. We present here the four scenarios developed.

The immense social and technological evolution of the Anthropocene continues transforming the Earth’s surface and its dynamics through extensive (mis-)use of its resources, both on the land and in the sea. These challenges were addressed in the Deep Dive on rural and marine areas in Europe in 2050. We present here policy implications drafted based on the four scenarios developed.

This blog post summarizes the dissemination event held for the 'Futures of using nature in rural and marine Europe in 2050' project.

This blog post summarizes the dissemination event held for the 'Futures of Science for Policy in Europe ' project.

A recent policy brief, ‘Futures of the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities in the European Union in 2035: Scenarios and policy Implications’, explores the regulatory, economic, and technological opportunities and ‘incentives’ for various types of criminal actors to penetrate the legal economy and derives policy implications for the EU and its member states.

In a world where the future often seems uncertain, how do local communities navigate the complexities of European policies to build a more resilient and equitable tomorrow? This is the intriguing question at the heart of RELOCAL, an EU -funded Horizon 2020 research project that ran between 2016 - 2021.

In the ever-evolving landscape of intellectual property rights (IPR), the intersection with cutting-edge technologies and global challenges has become a focal point for policymakers, industry leaders, and scholars alike. This article provides a comprehensive exploration of past, current, and upcoming efforts to shape the future of Intellectual Property Rights

The 8th Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop, which took place on 22 November 2023, served as a platform for insightful discussions centred around the topic of the future of civic resilience.

The sixth Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop explored futures of Big Tech in Europe. Contemporary societies increasingly rely on Big Tech for different functions, such as work, communication, consumption, and self-expression.

The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future.

The FUTURESILIENCE project has set out to strengthen European economic and social resilience through an enhanced ability to adapt and respond quickly to future crises. To reach this goal, the project sees Research and Innovation (R&I) playing a key role in building the capacity to anticipate, better prepare and be more flexible in crisis periods.

A new policy brief explores alternative future outcomes for green skills and jobs in Europe 2050. Based on participatory workshops and a foresight deep dive, the policy brief presents four alternative scenarios and their implications for R&I policy.

In a world where change is the only constant, strategic foresight is more critical than ever. The Tri-Scope Synthesis method offers a robust framework combining critical, futures and exponential thinking, equipping leaders and organizations with the tools to anticipate and influence their futures effectively.

The AIT Austrian Institute of Technology is Austria's largest non-university research institution and is the specialist among European research institutions for the central infrastructure topics of the future. With its seven centres, the AIT sees itself as a highly specialised research and development partner for industry in the fields of Energy, Health & Bioresources, Digital Safety & Security, Vision, Automation & Control, Low-Emission Transport, Technology Experience and Innovation Systems & Policy. Around 1,500 employees throughout Austria conduct research to develop the tools, technologies and solutions for Austria's economy.

FUTURESILIENCE

• Mapped existing policy relevant European R&I findings with high potential to inform policy making for economic and social resilience, and to help address societal challenges and integrated them into a knowledge base.
• Set up a toolbox and guideline for a scenario proccess that helps to stress test the usefulness of these policy solutions for a specific context and challenge 
• Implemented 10 pilot cases called 'Future Resilience Labs ' that conduct this participative scenario process with multiple stakeholders to develop tailored strategies for their local context and challenges. Lab topics range from climate change related natural disasters via migration and integration, housing and spatial mobility issues to cybersecurity threats, labor skill shortages and health system challenges.

Based on the Lab results and process experiences the project will generate a Knowledge Base of the successfully tested research findings with high capacity to inform policy actors and a Toolbox of methods for testing policy relevant research findings with participatory Foresight approaches at the center.

This project receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101094455. 

Europe is facing major societal challenges (climate change, demographic trends, cultural shifts induced by technology, new geopolitical balances, among others), which are radically changing the landscape of the European Union. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the instability of the markets and the economy and the difficulties of national and European public administrations in responding to the priorities of the citizens, have contributed to the increased detachment and lack of trust among citizens. While this poses risks to the
formal structures and institutions traditionally framing and holding together the European social system based on democracy and the free market, the EU is pursuing major transition programmes in order to respond to the major societal challenges. Its concerns with resilience extend to both, the structures and institutions that hold Europe together, and to the transition programmes that it wishes to drive.

We consider civic resilience, as the ability of a community, city, or society to prepare for, respond to, recover from, and adapt to adversities, challenges, or disruptions. Civic resilience is a core concern in crises as well as in transitions. It is about civil society surviving changes (disruptions, tipping points, crises etc. whether they are abrupt or founded in long-term developments). It calls for local commitment, preparedness beyond the support of the public administration and the private sector. It´s about civil society, both the community (social organizations) and the individuals (citizens), taking the initiative – as a key actor framing any social system –
to lead social change.

Exploring alternative futures addressing radical changes in society can help better prepare for future crises and strengthen the resilience of civil society today. Therefore, in this policy brief, we aim to assist policymakers by devising four possible future scenarios in 2040 and by considering their implications for today. While the challenges considered are global, policy implications are addressed especially about the European research and innovation policy. Four alternative scenarios were identified around two main axes (technological and economic adaptation and social & environmental stewardship):

• The first scenario, where both techno-economic adaptation and socio-environmental stewardship are high, represents an ideal future. This scenario (best of worlds) would be featured by low levels of community and individual resilience (welfare annihilates survival instinct): civil society would not be ready to face an unexpected event, totally devoid of self-protection mechanisms.
• The second scenario, where techno-economic adaptation is low but socio-environmental stewardship is high, means institutional void but strong community consensus. Here the risk -in terms of civic resilience- is that if the community prevails totally, then individuality is cancelled. Citizens are subordinated to the collective, which means the coexistence of a high level of community resilience and a low level of individual resilience.
• The third scenario, where high techno-economic adaptation meets low soc-environmental stewardship, represents a risk of rupture in the social fabric due to ubiquity and omnipresence of technology (AI, Singularity, Transhumanism?), an anomic society where community resilience is low -or even maybe annulled- even individual resilience may be high: in a homogenised alienated society
  where social institutions are annulled the only possible resistance may come from the individuals (a minority).
• The fourth scenario, the worst-case one, represents the survival mode where the menace is extreme, total and constant. Low techno-economic adaptation meets low socio-environmental stewardship, producing a vicious circle of desolation characterized by the fact that the social fabric is broken. It would be a radical context where both community and individual resilience may be high because
  hostile environments reinforce survival instinct (both individual and collective)

Each scenario provides a different point of view towards the situation in the EU today and what could and should be done by EU R&I policy, and by related policy fields that will affect the efficacy of the R&I policy pursuits towards civic resilience.

In this brief, we explore practices and processes by which information should be exchanged between knowledge actors and policy-makers with the intention to produce scientifically informed policies in Europe. We can see an increasing prominence of science in many public debates and the increasing willingness of governments to mobilize scientific and other advice mechanisms in the context of public debate.

The aim of science for policy is to produce actionable science, however, the level of control over those producing the knowledge and their responsibility for the consequences of the action is a matter of important societal dispute. Debates and interactions in the political and public space encompass interest-driven channels of communication, including scientific advice but also lay knowledge.

Therefore, science for policy needs to integrate knowledge from different sources and this requires building connections and relationships between actors from different scientific disciplines and across public administrations, affecting both the nature of science and the nature of policy-making. Science for policy may face adjustments in its modes of operation and its formats of interaction, which – at times – may well be at odds with the dominant empirical-analytical perception of science.

We make a deep dive into developments which are currently underway in the realm of research and innovation policy, and which can take us to different futures, including events largely unpredictable and decisions bound by constraints of diverse nature. We identify possible policy implications based on five scenarios of the future (in 2030), which highlight different types of science for policy ecosystems:

• Scenario A on societal-challenge-driven and mission-oriented research and policy provides the context for advice mechanisms to policy. Such a context can be amenable for scientific advice but it also entails risks for science.
• Scenario B on participatory science and policy support ‘under construction’ opens up the discussion on broadening the sources of evidence; why and how to include new types of actors beyond the ‘usual suspects’ (well-connected experts). This has implications for how to promote science and develop the policy support system. 
• Scenario C on data enthusiasm and AI overtaking scientific policy advice illustrates the role of data, AI and international governance challenges and it alarms about over-reliance on multinational data providers, which may lead to a loss of transparency, autonomy and (normative) reflection in scientific advice. We should ask whether technology can be neutral, and whether scientific advice can be normative. 
• Scenario D on open science and policy support points out that open science is not the same as open scientific advice whereby experts can speak frankly. Useful scientific advice has characteristics of a protected space where also unpopular (but well-founded) opinions can be voiced. 
• Scenario E on policy-based evidence-making in incumbent-driven industrial policy increases weight on advice mechanisms and embedding data, evidence, and experimentation within government agencies, and government research and regulatory organisations. 

The study focuses geographically on Europe and looks toward 2050, on regimes of stewardship of land and sea and address the role of ownership, access and use rights in rural areas (cities excluded), multiple uses of spaces (both land and sea), biodiversity, food (both aquaculture, fisheries and agriculture), energy (use of renewables), raw materials (mining etc.), carbon removal and storage, adaptation to climate change. While the challenges are global, they are addressed especially from the European research and innovation policy perspective. 

The immense social and technological evolution of the Anthropocene continues transforming the Earth’s surface and its dynamics through extensive (mis-)use of its resources, both on the land and in the sea. This policy brief develops scenarios on rural and marine areas in Europe in 2050 and subsequent implications to today’s R&I policy in Europe. Each scenario considers i) Economy and technology, ii) Demographics, lifestyles and values, iii) Governance and iv) Environment.

In Scenario A, European Civic Ecovillages pursue self-sufficiency and contribute to establishing a cooperative, locally oriented, caring economy restoring the ecosystem carrying capacities in land and sea. In Scenario B on Sustainable High-tech Europe, European businesses enjoy global leadership in regenerative and multi-functional high-tech solutions for energy, aquaculture and agriculture. In Scenario C on the United States of Europe, centrally planned Europe is divided between intensive use of land and sea and large conservation areas. Scenario D on European Permacrisis portrays Europe in a post-growth and politically scattered context that leads to low rates of innovation and fragmented use of land and sea.

None of the scenarios features a decisive solution to the global climate and biodiversity crises. Scenario A forcefully targets the resolution of the biodiversity crisis in Europe, by aligning human practices with nature, but provides little support to global climate and biodiversity crises. Scenario B proactively tackles the biodiversity crisis both in Europe and internationally but struggles with the fragmentation of efforts and with scaling up good practices and wider impact to curb the crisis. Scenarios C and D with intensive use of nature reduce biodiversity. Thanks to European-wide coordination Scenario C can protect vast areas with positive impacts to biodiversity, whereas Scenario D also struggles with the major fragmentation of conservation efforts and its detrimental impact on biodiversity. Such challenges illustrate the importance of balanced approaches in developing both local and global solutions to climate and biodiversity crises.

All scenarios depict a future of rural and marine areas in the context of extreme weather events and ecological crises, all be it with different intensities. Social developments, instead, range from major social confrontations to more collaborative and inclusive practices. Their policy implications include, among others, the need to address major risks of patchy land use that hamper the sufficient size of ecosystems and diminish resilience. The scenarios also touch upon integrated spatial planning of urban, rural and marine areas, and how the effective use of spaces can benefit from the further extension of user rights. Future research could explore if and how land ownership models in some rural areas could be replaced or complemented with public ownership and user rights. Furthermore, policy implications include a need for balancing sustainability with food affordability and security in different modalities of agriculture and aquaculture. The challenges of climate and biodiversity crises addressed by the scenarios suggest that balanced approaches are needed in developing both local and global solutions.

This brief is the result of one of eight Deep Dive Foresight Studies in the project ‘European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe’ conducted by the Foresight on Demand’ consortium for the European Commission. During the spring of 2023, an expert team identified factors of change and organised two scenario and one policy implications workshops also engaging experts from academia, business and public administration around Europe. The process was also supported by discussions in the Horizon Europe Foresight Network.

This study considers the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities, with new technologies and unregulated terrains offering new opportunities for new types of interpenetration. We explore the possibility of differentiating, regulating, and controlling criminal and legal activities and markets, the level of control technically feasible and socially and economically desirable, among other relevant issues.  We analyse the following issues, among others:

• Is there a possibility of differentiating and controlling criminal and legal markets and economic activities? 
• What level of control is technically feasible and (at the same time) socially and economically desirable?  
• To some extent is it possible to establish the lawful origins of funds used in every transaction?  
  
  The study is relevant for several reasons:
• Crimes have wide-ranging, major impacts on the economy, society and environment, when connected to lawful economic activities.Quite often these connections (“interpenetrations”) are not detected  - or not reported for various reasons.
• Economic hardship and crises are likely to reinforce the incentives for committing criminal economic activities.
• New technologies might offer new opportunities for new or “refined” criminal economic activities.
• Economic criminals are often innovative and enter unregulated terrains (e.g.,some commons, metaverse, etc.).
• Lack of resources and skills to fight economic crime is a major hurdle.

This report summarizes the results of a foresight process that started at the end of 2020 with the goal to develop reference foresight scenarios. Foresight scenarios are a tool to improve strategy development and decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. Recent events, such as the COVID pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. The reference scenarios presented in this report aim to help decision makers to increase the preparedness of their organisations under increasingly unpredictable circumstances.

The Reference Foresight Scenarios report from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) summarizes the results of a foresight process that started at the end of 2020 with the goal to develop a set of reference foresight scenarios to support policymakers. Foresight scenarios are a tool to improve strategy development and decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. Recent events, such as the COVID pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. 

The reference scenarios presented in this report aim to help decision makers to increase the preparedness of their organisations under increasingly unpredictable circumstances. The scenarios are four plausible versions of how the world may look like in 2040 and what this would mean for Europe’s global standing. They are called Storms, End game, Struggling synergies, and Opposing views. They do not claim to predict or project how the future may look like but offer strategic reflections, which can serve as a compass for policymakers for navigating through unchartered territories of turbulence, uncertainty, ambiguity and novelty. These four geopolitical scenarios are called ‘Reference’ Foresight Scenarios because they represent a forward-looking framework that provides a reference for use in policymakers’ debates about potential futures.

Stress-testing policy options with the scenarios

The work with the reference foresight scenarios continued as a pilot process of stress-testing some policy options against a set of Reference foresight scenarios. The process was led by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and applied to a specific EU policy proposal on Standard Essential Patents. The process ran during the initial stage of the impact assessment process, but it was not an official part of it. The results of this pilot helped to understand which policy options are more or less robust and how they can be made more future-proof. The process also provided rich insights into what the challenges and opportunities of this approach are, and into how stress-testing can be further incorporated into EU policymaking. The report provides an example and serve as a guide for any future process of stress-testing policy options against foresight scenarios.

Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge.

This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality.

The CROSSEU project was launched in response to growing societal needs for effective climate action and stronger socio-economic resilience. As climate change continues to impact our world, it becomes crucial to understand and manage its complex effects. 

Objective(s)
CROSSEU aims to respond to increasing societal needs to reduce climate-damaging actions, adapt to the expected consequences, and increase socio-economic resilience.

The main ambition of the project is to provide a science based and ready to use decision support system built on enhanced understanding of the biogeophysical risks from climate change, and their socioeconomic impacts in Europe, fully co-produced and implemented with practice stakeholders to ensure its uptake, and support effective coping with sectoral and cross sectoral climate risks within the context of the European green transition.

It will do this by delivering a climate-sensitive framework, including a ready-to-use decision support system platform and technical recommendations, to inform investment decisions, cost-effective adaptation and mitigation options and policy response to climate change.

The project will contribute to advancing the understanding of the socio-economic risks and response options associated with climate change impact in Europe in different timeframes, including the post-COVID-19 societal-environmental transformation, and derive practical recommendations for political and societal action.

The solutions proposed are based on an extensive assessment of the socio-economic risks of climate change in a cross-sectoral hierarchical approach, based on storylines addressing key categories of climate hazards in different socio-economic sectors and climate change-sensitive areas across countries and European regions.

The project will offer a ready-to-use solution that integrates complex information from available climate risk data sets and non-climatic sectoral data collected during the project implementation and derived through modelling based on demand-driven climate-socio-economic pathways.

CROSSEU is designed to bridge the science-based information about the economic impacts of climate change, and the unique contributions of the project will be:

1. the quantification of costs of existent and emergent socio-economic risks and opportunities at NUTS3 level
2. an improved representation of adaptation within biogeophysical climate change risk
3. a better consideration of modelling uncertainties by identifying their nature, assessing their characteristics in
a systematic way to determine a better informed and robust decision-making. 

The project's foresight component is crucial for projecting how various climate impacts will unfold under different global pathways (RCP-SSP). By examining future scenarios, it allows decision-makers to anticipate and plan for the most critical challenges, helping societies prepare for the compounded effects of climate change across sectors. The focus on cross-sectoral linkages emphasizes the need for integrated, multi-dimensional strategies to address both immediate and long-term climate risks, while ensuring social equity and resilience.
Future scenarios involve identifying and evaluating highly vulnerable areas across Europe in terms of their exposure to climate change, sensitivity to its impacts, and adaptive capacity. It focuses on key sectors—such as biodiversity, health, agriculture, forests, and water—and examines how these areas are likely to experience intense climate changes, particularly extreme events, in the future (2030, 2050, 2100).

Outputs

• Enhance the modelling of mitigation and adaptation strategies in relation to projected bio-geo-physical processes and socioeconomic risks to different sectors for different time horizons (i.e. 2030, 2050 and 2100) considering both the individual characteristics and interactions between the various sectors
• Co-assess synergies conflicts and trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation strategies across different sectors regions
• Co-produce ready to use tools integrated in a science based decision support system for assessing the social and economic impacts of climate change, and support mitigation and adaptation options towards a climate resilient Europe
• Consolidate the European union's response to climate change challenges and social and economic impacts in the context of the transformation related to the post COVID-19 crisis and geopolitical challenges

Expected outcomes
1. the project delivers a science based and ready to use decision support system built on enhanced understanding of the biogeophysical risks from climate change, and their socioeconomic impacts in Europe, fully co-produced and implemented with practice stakeholders to ensure its uptake.
2. the project consistently contributes to enhancing the overall impact of the destination climate across the EU
3. the project facilitates an improved understanding of the nature and extent of physical risks climate change driven hazards and their socio economic impacts at different levels of warming with or without adaptation
4. CrossEU integrates social sciences and humanities perspectives and insights throughout its entire workflow, engaging stakeholders including representatives of communities or citizen groups, sectoral policymakers, businesses, the scientific community, and civil society, through the entire project cycle.

CROSSEU is an EU funded project, with UK partners funded by UKRI.

Established by the European Commission, Foresight-on-Demand is a mechanism to respond to the demand for quick inputs to policy-making by drawing on the best available foresight knowledge.

FoD aims at offering the European Commission services with timely and effective support related to crisis situations, emerging risks, and policy challenges.

One Day in 2050 is a collaborative future narratives platform for climate change activation.

Visit oneday2050.org and dive into 365 fictional news from 2050 (one for each day) written by 365 voices from the future to teach us how climate change will reshape our society. A 365 degrees unique vision on the future of our planet. 

Also on oneday2050.org:

• Clima Utopyas. Twenty-five short cli-fi pieces to provide utopyan visions of 2050: future narratives against ecoanxiety.
• One Planet to Love. Raising awareness about what it is at stake, portraiting species, places, events, experiences that might disappear by 2050.
• ECOFascism: leviathan or lifejacket of humankind? Thirty-six short stories based on 2050, where a totalitarian society rules the planet.

Travelling into the [future] (spanish: Viajando al [futuro]) is a long-term project aimed at developing desirable future scenarios for sustainable tourism in Spain together with local stakeholders and experts in the field. The project is funded by the European Climate Foundation and implemented in a collaboration between Futures Probes and Tipi. 

Process & Methodology

The project was structured into three main phases: Research, Crowdsourcing, Storytelling.

• In the research phase, a PESTLE analysis and the elaboration of local stakeholder maps identified environmental key factors and networks.
• In the crowdsourcing phase, participatory workshops with local stakeholders and a Delphi survey with tourism experts were run in parallel, built upon and at the same time challenging the knowledge gathered in the previous phase. 
• In the Storytelling phase, the results were used as the fundament for building six future scenarios, visualised as a written narrative accompanied by an illustration. 

Outcome

• Building up and strengthening local stakeholder networks and generating ideas for future sustainable tourism(s). Gathering of key insights on desirable, possible and likely future developments of tourism in Spain. 
• Identification and discussion of needs, desires, worries and attitudes of tourism stakeholders – in its complexity and diversity. 
• Six future scenarios to inspire can activate communities, organisations and citizens to define measures that accelerate the transformation towards a better, more sustainable tourism.
  

Next steps

• Developing indicators to measure the performance of (future) touristic activities in terms of their sustainability.
  
• Creating a network of change agents within the tourism sector to exchange experiences, needs, knowledge and to collectively identify possible synergies and action steps to be taken.
  
• Designing experimental pilot projects focusing on solving some of the concrete challenges identified as common to one or all of the regions observed.

MUSAE aims to set up a Human-Centred Factory Model, based on the Design Future Art-driven (DFA) method, and integrate it into a (European) Digital Innovation Hubs (DIHs) network, to support companies in guiding strategic digital technology innovation and address future challenges in the food domain to improve people and planet wellbeing. 

MUSAE will establish a deep connection with the S+T+ARTS ecosystem, bringing together expertise in design, art, nutrition and wellbeing, and human-machine interaction. MUSAE will run 20 S+T+ARTS residencies involving 20 artists and 10 tech companies working with 3 main technologies – Artificial Intelligence, Wearables, and Robotics – to envision 10 future scenarios for technologies application and design 10 prototypes, thus opening up new markets and innovations. To validate replicability, MUSAE will set up and activate one Factory within the DIH partner and create the Factory Model Pack and the Label that will allow other DIHs to adopt it.

Climate change and environmental degradation are an existential threat to the European Union and to the world. As a response, among other things, the European Green Deal aims to make Europe climate-neutral by 2050, boost the economy through green technology, create sustainable industry and transport, and cut pollution. The transition towards greener and more sustainable economies is a game changer in the EU labour market alongside digitalisation and automation. Skill needs will change with impacts far beyond the key occupations driving them, affecting all economic sectors.

Europe needs to promote and support green employment, address the skilling and reskilling of workers, and anticipate changes in workplaces of the future. In order to get a better grasp on potential future outcomes, and better anticipate their potential policy implications, a foresight Deep Dive has been carried out. The Deep Dive uses a broad conceptualization of skills that encompasses the full palette from scientific and engineering skills to vocational and crafts-like skills. All are needed in the green labour market, although the scenario-led focus here for the most part is on skills of vocational professions. This policy brief presents the main findings.

A set of four different scenarios for the futures of green skills and jobs in Europe in 2050 were crafted:

• Scenario A: Green technology-intensive Europe: Struggling to fill all the green jobs
• Scenario B: Apocalypse Soon: Fighting skills mismatches in a degraded environment
• Scenario C: Feeling the pain: A workforce left behind in a non-green world
• Scenario D: Green leapfrogging: Old, mismatched Europe surrounded by new green giants

The ultimate objectives of TRIGGER are to provide EU institutions with knowledge and tools to enhance their actorness, effectiveness and influence in global governance; and to develop new ways to harness the potential of public engagement and participatory foresight in complex governance decisions, thereby also tackling emerging trends such as nationalism, regionalism and protectionism.

TRIGGER specific objectives are:

• Advance the state of the art in understanding global governance;
• Evolution of the EU’s interaction with global governance, in particular so-called “actorness” and “effectiveness” of the EU;
• Understand how global governance and emerging technologies interact, and what role the EU plays in this respect, in particular as “regulatory superpower”;
• Identify emerging trends that strengthen / loosen deeper global governance and cooperation;
• Build capacity for strategic foresight and public engagement inside EU institutions.

The TRIGGER consortium is composed of 14 partners, including four non-EU countries. TRIGGER will achieve its objectives thanks to the combined effort of four research sub-groups:

• a group focused on global and EU governance, which will create an unprecedented Atlas of Global Governance REGulation and Europe’s AcTORness (AGGREGATOR);
• a group focused on the relationship between governance and emerging technologies; 
• a group dedicated to strategic foresight and public engagement, which will use new techniques such as AI-enabled sentiment analysis and innovative public engagement methods to develop a tool on Co-Creating the European Union (COCTEAU); and
• a group specialised in dissemination and communication. All major deliverables will eventually be merged into a toolkit dedicated to Public Engagement for Responsive and Shared EU Strategies (PERSEUS).

Earth4All is an international initiative to accelerate the systems-change we need for an equitable future on a finite planet. Our analysis combines the best available science with new economic thinking. We found that the next ten years must see the fastest economic transformation in history if we want to steer humanity away from social and ecological catastrophe. 

Earth4All started as a vibrant collective of leading economic thinkers, scientists, policy leaders, and advocates, convened by The Club of Rome, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Stockholm Resilience Centre and the Norwegian Business School.

Building on the legacies of The Limits to Growth and the Planetary Boundaries frameworks, science is at the heart of our work. Leading scientists have developed state of the art systems dynamic models and run different scenarios for possible plausible futures.

Earth4All is guided by a Transformational Economics Commission, made up of economic thinkers from across the globe to explore new economic thinking and test the model outcomes.

The third pillar is a global campaign that aims to make the Earth4All vision a reality, advocating for governments to adopt policies that will enable resilient and healthy societies.

We are providing a platform to connect and amplify the voices of people and organisations who want to upgrade our economies. The momentum is growing, with communities and policy makers around the world pushing for economic systems change.

4Growth will showcase the uptake of digital technologies and data through the “4Growth Visualisation Platform” that will combine powerful storytelling with advanced visualisations of the market.

This 3-year Horizon Europe project, funded by the European Commission, brings together 13 partners with the aim of understanding where, how and to what extent digital technologies and data are being adopted within the agricultural and forestry sectors. The project started in January 2024 and will end in December 2026.

OrganicTargets4EU supports the Farm-to-Fork Strategy in achieving the targets of at least 25% of the EU's agricultural land under organic farming and a significant increase in organic aquaculture by 2030.

Activities

OrganicTargets4EU for reaching these targets and identifies key drivers and lock-ins affecting the development of organic agriculture and aquaculture in 29 countries (EU-27+CH+NO). 

Production and Market analysis of the identified scenarios to provide a picture of:

• Where increases in organic farmland can be achieved
• The socio-economic impacts of these increases at the level of primary production, value chains, and markets
• The mechanisms that can drive demand for organic food 

Knowledge & Innovation actions to:

• Identify opportunities to strengthen organic advisory services
• Stimulate the exchange of scientific and practical knowledge
• Increase and coordinate R&I investments in the organic sector 

Policy work facilitating a multi-actor policy dialogue to:

• Assess the feasibility of the organic Farm-to-Fork targets
• Supports the implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), EU Organic Regulation, Organic Action Plan
• Provide short-term policy options (policy framework up to 2027) and policy recommendations in the next policy reform (from 2028 onwards).

Climate change impacts are one of the main threats to human society and natural ecosystems. Even though natural dynamics also have a substantial effect on climate, there is no doubt that current alterations of climate with the correlated impacts are manmade. Alongside continuing efforts to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change, there may be possibilities to geoengineer climate systems to reduce or mask the impacts of climate change. There are also strong arguments for large-scale changes in social practices for adapting to and mitigating climate change. The big challenge comes with the necessary scale of interventions as those changes need to be large-scale and global, putting new challenges to all levels of governance from local to global.

Many present drivers seem to indicate a gloomy future for the climate. The current individualistic mindsets drive overconsumption and overproduction. The offsetting of carbon emissions is sometimes used to compensate for dirty activities. Intense competition for natural resources is not safeguarding their sustainability. Bio-holistic worldviews confront anthropocentric views, but climate delay has emerged as the new denial and the lack of courage to address climate supremacists, i.e. the global wealthy, shows little change of direction. According to a 2020 report from Oxfam and the Stockholm Environment Institute, the wealthiest top 1% were responsible for 15% of global emissions, nearly twice as much as the world’s poorest 50%, who were responsible for just 7%. Overly optimistic beliefs in tech or social transformation to solve it prevail, and there is a wide reluctance to consider broad system change.

There are also drivers towards desired futures. Improved understanding of climate and global change and the capacity and knowledge to purposefully shape nature and society provide better means to address climate change. Climate anxiety and perception of government inaction have triggered, for instance, the ‘Fridays for future’ movement, which contributes to the emergence of global conscience on the climate and biodiversity crisis and the need for justice. New understandings of human purpose and fairness also encourage the development of a wider range of responses like de-desertification, seaweed permaculture, ocean fertilization, carbon capture and storage, and solar radiation management. We may learn to protect the global commons, including indigenous cultures and atmospheric commons.

Economic growth in societies based on individual material gain, here-and-now-thinking, short political cycles, and lack of broad political agreement on alternative paths seem to keep us on the path to the climate crisis. Furthermore, exacerbated social inequalities may lead many to have no willingness or ability to participate in transitions. While we are overconfident with systems’ design, we underestimate natural forces and ecosystems. Emerging options for large-scale ‘geoengineering’ interventions in the climate system promise new opportunities and new risks, including novel geopolitical tensions.There are diverse perceptions on geoengineering and possible social change towards potential acceptance or societal rejection. The planet lacks a fair and appropriate governance structure providing a framework on who might be entitled to carry out geoengineering projects in the name of the planet and what their responsibility is. There is no sufficient dialogue on what it means to be a responsible company, researcher, research organisation, or policy-maker in this context.

This deep dive is part of the Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe project.

The concept of the global commons refers to resource domains that fall outside national jurisdiction, to which all have access, including high seas, airspace, outer space, and cyberspace. Given the growing significance of these domains and related resources for states and other global and local players across a range of purposes, defining the concept of the global commons has become more complex. The Global Commons Alliance network of concerned organisations refers to two definitions of the concept.

The first is based on geopolitics, where the global commons are areas whose potential economic resources lie beyond national jurisdiction: the atmosphere, the high seas, Antarctica, and outer space. The second definition has its roots more in economics and how shared resources can be overused by some at the expense of others, regardless of national jurisdiction. The strategic access and use of resource domains for military/commercial purposes put pressure on their status. Recent geopolitical developments highlight the need for exploring appropriate forms of global governance or stewardship to ensure responsible (sustainable) management to benefit present and future generations.

This deep dive aims to address the following questions:

• What constitutes a global commons? How do global commons differ? How is the concept of global commons likely to evolve up to 2040? Adapting a taxonomy of global commons for the emerging geopolitical, environmental, and economic context.
• What are the main emerging disruptors of global commons up to 2040? What could change and upset established global commons regimes? How can laws be introduced and implemented in emerging global commons? The emphasis is on geopolitics and how legal frameworks can survive technological change. How can innovation reinforce the commons?
• How is the economics of common property evolving (from Hardin's very influential work to the massive critique of Hardin by Elinor Ostrom)? linking to major policy debates such as privatisation. Can Ostrom’s approach be scaled up to the level of states? and extended to the common property of the atmosphere or oceans? What would be necessary for such a large-scale negotiation process?
• How can we govern the commons as a different type of ownership? The emergence of global commons-orientation in innovation? In particular mission-oriented innovation. Exploring the rights and personality of ecosystems and other entities as right holders. Ecological services as transversal.
• How can we make the global commons work? - the need for cooperative behaviour if global commons and sustainability are to be achieved. Multilateralism 2.0. and emerging role of science diplomacy up to 2040. Ukraine war as an epochal war: the dangers of the war (state of permanent cold war) for acting seriously on the global commons. Potential split with China and new hegemonies in Africa (e.g Belt and Road debt).
  
  
  The aim is to identify cross impacts of the global commons areas and key drivers.

The twelve scenarios in this deep dive are informed by transhumanism, portraying futures in which the human condition – our bodies, functions, and lives – and the features of societies are fundamentally transformed by technology. Even though scenarios are built along the lines of particular scientific and/or technological advancements, the discussion spreads over sociotechnical ensembles and the re-conceptualization of the relationship between technology and society by 2040.

The work leading to this report started with a horizon scanning exercise to identify a series of technological innovations and scientific breakthroughs that may be considered key factors towards re-engineering human nature. In parallel, the authors explored diverse narratives regarding the human condition and significance in the world, dreams and fears embodied in the so-called collective imaginary, echoing through myths and fantasies to literature, cinematography and the wider culture. At the intersection of these explorations, twelve topics were selected and further expanded into scenarios. They are not intended to cover the full spectrum of themes regarding human enhancement, but present a relevant ‘sample’ of potential future trajectories.

We propose these narratives as exploratory scenarios, describing futures where both positive and negative consequences are palpable. They are not normative, outlininga vision of the future deemed desirable. We invite readers to regard them as devices for imagining the future and debating the future. They aim to nurture a reflection on the dynamics of change, future opportunities and potential threats, and in doing so they contribute to future preparedness.

Three types of scenarios were developed:

• The first type describe futures where scientific and technological advancements enhance embodied experiences: Sensory augmentation: extending human senses beyond the natural limits and adding sensorial modalities which are not native to humans. Sensory and brain stimulation, psychedelic microdosing: inducing altered states of consciousness, for healing purposes or for fostering new perspectives on being human. Molecular therapies for delaying aging; and new artificial reproductive technologies allowing people to be fertile until much older age.
• The second type explore futures where human capabilities are extended by embodying non-biological means: a significant share of elderly people using exoskeletons for prolonging active life, for maintaining their mobility or as a form of assisted living; brain-computer interfaces leveraged in semi-automatized work environments, to improve learning outcomes, and to control smart devices; Brain to brain communication supporting cognitive and emotion sharing, leading to the creation of ‘hive minds’ covering multiple aspects of life.
• The third type focus on the simulation and replication of the human body and mind: Digital body twins allowing alert signals for disease prevention and the simulation of the short- and long-term effects of a person’s behavior on their health and body; Digital twins of the brain allowing testing hypotheses in cognitive science, in mental health studies, responses to different types of treatments; Digital immersive worlds – gaming/ fantasy worlds or ‘mirror worlds’ that are replicating real-life environments – hosting interactions among people and automated entities; Digital replicas of the deceased changing the socio-political understanding of grief; and Artificial agents with complex underlying computational procedures (including e.g. self-reflection, development of value system, affective computing) and sophisticated interfaces calling for new theoretical frameworks of consciousness.
  
  
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  The twelve scenarios presented in this deep dive are part of the Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe project, which was conducted by Foresight on Demand Consortium on behalf of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD).

Successfully managing the green and digital transitions is a crucial factor that could increase the resilience and strategic autonomy of the EU and shape its future. Yet digitalisation of agriculture and rural areas raises vital questions about winners and losers, costs, benefits, and long term implications.


This foresight exercise explores the interplay between digital transition, policies and the resilience of the agricultural sector and rural areas, against the backdrop of potential disruptive and transformative changes. The report presents the outcomes of this exploration, proposing building blocks for an effective EU digital transition strategy for agriculture and rural areas supported by a hands-on policymaker’s toolkit

The blog post reveals the goals and steps of the foresight process and explains how visioning can support transitions. 

In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers.
Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used
as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape
technological change.

In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory
intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning.

Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.
The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches
to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European
Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this
way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop.

Smart Futures Tunisia aims to explore what Tunisia and its digital economy could and should look like in 2035. For this purpose, normative future scenarios were created from which inspiring future job profiles could be derived. In a final step, recommendations identify options for action through which the envisioned future can be approximated.

The results are based on a three-stage methodology approach:

• First, key thematic areas were outlined through baseline research and expert interviews.
• Second, a foresight workshop was conducted to create a room to elaborate on different future scenarios and job profiles while also developing a digital skills map and initially discuss recommendations. 
• Third, the results were refined through expert validation loops and expert interviews.

The future scenarios were created to explore what urban areas, smaller cities and rural areas might look like in 2035. A future is drawn in which Tunisia is characterized by smart and self-powered buildings, increasing e-mobility, and public services delivered digitally. Apart from that, digital progress offers the opportunity to provide more equitable education, to conduct various types of commercial activities via e-commerce, and to improve access to health. Such a future in its variety of facets has been visually depicted in the graphic above.

Furthermore, future job profiles are derived on this basis. In a desirable Tunisian development, these will be found primarily in the areas of food production, fintech, e-commerce, health tech, mobility, ed-, gov-, and green tech. Specific job profiles range from farm drone operators, who operate and maintain drones that monitor, measure and analyze crop growth and health, to cybersecurity experts, who protect government data from digital attacks. To be prepared for the changing profiles, digital competencies need to be developed, which can be categorized into the following four pillars: digital literacy and data literacy, technology-specific skills, digital product literacy, and digital transformation literacy.

After developing future scenarios and outlining future job profiles, recommendations were finally drawn up that will enable Tunisia to proactively strive for the future outlined. General recommendations manifest themselves, for example, in the promotion of a "digital culture" that includes all strata of the population in order to make appropriate use of the potential of digitization. A specific example of a topic area recommendation is to strive for leadership in green tech solutions. Here, it is recommended to promote green tech culture, for example by including environmental sustainability and green tech solutions in education and public campaigns. In addition to content recommendations, Foresight Journey recommendations aim to improve and deepen the methodological applications of foresight for potential future ventures in this thematic field.

Smart Futures Tunisia is part of the Special Initiative “Decent Work for a Just Transition” Invest for Jobs of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and implemented by the Digital Transformation Programme Tunisia of the Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. Invest for Jobs aims to team up with companies to create good jobs in eight African partner countries and to improve local working conditions.