Welcome to the fourth issue of Horizon Futures Watch! In this edition, we explore two pivotal yet distinct themes: the future of civic resilience and the future of intellectual property. Civic resilience refers to the ability of communities to adapt and thrive amidst challenges and changes, a crucial aspect in today’s rapidly evolving global landscape. On the other hand, the future of IP delves into evolving dynamics crucial for fostering innovation and for protecting the interests of creators in an increasingly digital world. While these themes stand independently, together they underscore the importance of adaptability and creativity in shaping the future. 

An overview of the latest selection of news about foresight projects and topics opens the issue.

Welcome to the third issue of Horizon Futures Watch. Here, we delve into two interrelated themes that may frequently be paired together (or seen in isolation): the future of green skills and the future of big tech.  

Sustainability meets technological progress. A focus on green skills may be amplified with the entrance of innovative, data-driven technologies. Technology may sometimes be viewed as the answer to the need for more sustainable processes, while green skills may provide the essential human touch necessary to ensure these advancements are effectively and ethically applied. But is this always the case? And is there a universally optimal balance between the two? Such questions are explored in the six different projects that follow.

An overview of the latest selection of news about foresight projects and topics opens the issue. The Foresight in the Field section presents a report on the EEA’s recently published Horizon Scanning – Tips and Tricks.

Welcome to the second issue of Horizon Futures Watch, bringing you a fresh batch of articles revolving around the latest foresight developments in Horizon projects and beyond. Two new themes are treated in this issue: Tackling security concerns and the future of Science for Policy. 

The ‘Tackling security concerns’ section goes beyond the scope of the Futures4Europe platform foresight project on the ‘interpenetration of criminal and lawful activities’ and explores new needs that arise for fighting crime and countering hybrid threats as a result of rapid technological developments. 

The Science for Policy theme explores novel approaches taken to support the democratic process through evidence-based methods for policymaking.  

We open this issue with an up-to-date selection of news on foresight projects and publications. The Foresight in the Field section presents the application of foresight in EUROPOL’s European Innovation Lab to support law enforcement agencies around the EU.

Sharing lessons learned in foresight practices and experiences is important for the exchange for an impactful foresight community. The Mutual Learning Exercise can help foster community building and foresight capacities in different member states.

Proposed scenarios about the future should come with a pinch of salt. Without being perfectly accurate, they help prepare policymakers for better or worse. The REGROUP project funded under the Horizon Europe programme aims to advise the EU on how to address post-pandemic policy and institutional challenges by analysing the societal and political consequences of COVID-19 and considering the normative implications of the pandemic.

The key to biodiversity’s preservation? Fostering collaborations between the scientific community and policymakers by using a future-oriented mindset.

The world of hybrid threats presents a complex and ever-evolving landscape where traditional and non-traditional methods intertwine. With the rise of these multifaceted challenges, safeguarding the integrity of European democracies has become an urgent imperative. Initiatives like EU-HYBNET aim to enhance preparedness and to establish a European network to counter hybrid threats.

The third Horizon Futures Watch Workshop on the Future of Science for Policy in Europe took place on 28th June 2023. 

The workshop began with a presentation by members of the Foresight on Demand Consortium, aiming to explore the future of science for policy and more specifically knowledge exchange processes between knowledge actors and policymakers, with the intention to produce scientifically informed policy in Europe. The presentation outlined scenarios rooted in developments, trends, and drivers that are currently underway providing a glimpse into potential characteristics that might define the landscape in the 2030s. The scenarios were developed around two key dimensions for the governance of science: the extent to which government directs science and the extent of stakeholder engagement in the shaping of scientific agendas. Drawing from previously identified trends such as Citizen Science, Open Science, Mission-driven research and innovation, and data-driven policy, the team identified five scenario narratives as shown below.

All scenarios, departed from trends already identified within the European R&I system and opened the floor for in-depth discussions concerning the future Science for Policy and policy governance. The discussion that ensued between the speakers and the workshop participants raised points about the future of science for policy and the potential evolution of current R&I policy: 

Foresight and Science for Policy: Certain scenarios speculated that Foresight will not, in the future, be practiced as it was before – as a response to crises – but will be integrated in political agenda setting for R&I. This could render traditional Science for Policy redundant, as it could become an intrinsic element of policy initiatives. In this setting, scientific advice would be co-created through diverse frameworks rather than coming from a single institutionalized source. 

Mapping Scenarios: During the discussions, the intricate nature of European R&I systems was highlighted. Participants proposed that Member States be encouraged to undertake similar scenario-building exercises, which can have the benefit of drawing all relevant stakeholders around the table. This approach could enable the creation of viable roadmaps based on these scenarios and assess the alignment of these streams with National and European initiatives.

Addressing Systemic Failures in Science and Democracy: The discussion also touched upon the democratization of scientific processes leading to considerations about cultivating openness and transparency and encouraging the multidisciplinary nature and the involvement of actors beyond just the scientific realm. Bio Agora, for example, which aims to develop the Science Service for European Research and Biodiversity Policy Making, actively contributes to breaking the silo thinking in science, society and policy, and showcased its approach in a subsequent presentation. Similarly, the PHIRI project (Population Health and Research Infrastructure, PHIRI) presented its approach for best gathering available evidence for research on health and well-being of populations impacted by Covid-19. Through the input gathered from various stakeholders in different member states, PHIRI showcased how they adopted a multi-stakeholder approach to develop scenarios that are insightful for understanding the challenges for public health in the short and long term using the expertise of people from diverse backgrounds. 

Indeed, audience feedback suggested broadening the scope of the prospective analysis conducted on the Future of Science for Policy. This expansion could encompass the involvement and contributions of stakeholders in policy governance who extend beyond the scientific community. This approach aims to achieve a more comprehensive and systemic understanding of the subject matter. 

The project presentations further led to insightful conversations on the strategic significance of Foresight and collaborative governance methods as valuable aspects for addressing deliberative issues, including:

• The concept of Temporality: While it is essential to strive for a better understanding of the future, equal emphasis should be placed on comprehending the present. As Henk Hilderink, Public Health Foresight Expert at the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) said: "If we wait until we understand what the present is, then we are never going to look at the future”.
• Collaborative governance methods: Discussions revolved around identifying the appropriate Collaborative Governance Practices. This entails a keen focus on leveraging Emerging Technologies to facilitate methods conducive to achieving collaborative multilevel governance.

The 'Horizon Scanning – Tips and Tricks' publication provides an insightful step-by-step support on how to run an effective horizon scan - and how to address underlying biases while doing so.

The interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities is a pressing concern for policymakers and law enforcement agencies (LEAs). This intricate issue was the topic of the workshop that took place on Wednesday, 11 October 2023, as part of the series of online workshops hosted by the Horizon Futures Watch activities.

The interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities is a pressing concern for policymakers and law enforcement agencies (LEAs). This intricate issue was the topic of the workshop that took place on Wednesday, 11 October 2023, as part of the series of online workshops hosted by the Horizon Futures Watch activities. 

The heart of the discussion, a policy brief stemming from the results of deep dives conducted on this topic, revolved around four scenarios, each offering a distinct perspective on the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities highlighting the role of two competing groups: criminal actors and LEAs: 

Neck to Neck Race: When the EU economy is thriving and law enforcement agencies have ample resources and capabilities, well-organized criminal groups are highly motivated to infiltrate lawful economic sectors. Through substantial resources, they create new technologies and methods to further integrate their illegal activities into the legitimate economy. 

Criminal Paradise: In the absence of effective regulation, the EU’s strong economy creates favourable conditions for large, well-organized criminal groups to engage in profitable activities across lawful, questionable, and illicit sectors of the economy. Lawful businesses and citizens become potential victims, vulnerable to  criminal activities. 

Safe Haven for Legal Actors: Large criminal organisations have kept a minimal presence in the EU as they found ample, more profitable opportunities in other regions where LEAs are weaker, and regulation is ineffective. In the EU, law enforcement agencies are well-equipped with resources, skills, capabilities, and supported by effective regulations, making them strong and capable of maintaining law and order. 

Protected Pockets: In this scenario, there are some ‘protected pockets’ for lawful economic actors. Large criminal groups focus their activities outside the EU where they can exploit more profitable opportunities to commit economic crimes. Small-scale criminal organisations take advantage of the low intensity of the large criminal organisations’ activities. 

The scenarios considered various factors that drive individuals to engage in criminal economic activities, ranging from "push" factors, such as economic hardship, to "pull" factors, like lucrative opportunities. The scenarios explored the role of research, technological development, and innovation in creating opportunities for both criminal activities and prevention efforts by LEAs. The presentation of these scenarios opened the floor to insightful discussions regarding the brief's content and its potential consequences for European research and innovation (R&I) policies and regulations. The workshop's program featured two distinct roundtable sessions, bringing together experts and representatives from Horizon projects Aligner and EU-Hybnet. 

The significance of four key policy implications outlined in the brief was stressed, including:  

• Addressing the substantial challenges posed by the volume of data collected during criminal investigations and the information generated by regulatory requirements. 
• The need for increased traceability to enhance transparency. 
• The development of tools aimed at preventing, monitoring, and combating harmful criminal economic activities. 
• The critical importance of building trust in state organizations, particularly law enforcement agencies.

The first roundtable discussion was a rich exchange of diverse perspectives and insights provided by the experts who authored the policy brief. Among the reactions, the pivotal role of supporting technological tools was emphasized to effectively prevent, monitor, and combat criminal economic activities within European Union Member States. Others highlighted the importance of establishing common ground in both policy and technology usability across various criminal justice systems within the EU. This sentiment was echoed by participants’ underlining the significance of fostering inter-state cooperation to address emerging challenges, including the spread of fake news and the links between climate change and different forms of criminal behavior. 

It was pointed out that these scenarios did not include any mentions of the transformative changes associated with the Green Transition and Green Deal, which will have implications for illicit activities. The question of whether ecocide would be categorized as a crime in the future was posed. In addition, the complex connection between climate change and crimes, including human trafficking, migrant smuggling, and the dependence on illicit suppliers was brought forward. 

The second roundtable discussion centred on the regulatory aspects of technology and its ethical implications. Project ALIGNER introduced the concept of technological neutrality, advocating that regulations should target harmful actions rather than the technology itself. She also emphasized the need for continuous evaluation of regulatory effectiveness and the flexibility to adapt them when required.  Project EU-Hybnet underlined the ethical dimension of the debate, namely that it is important for technology regulations to align with democratic consensus and uphold the principles of the rule of law. 

The "grey zone of legality" was also discussed, namely a situation in which the distinction between what is legal and what is illegal is not easily discernible. ALIGNER project’s team pointed out that similar tools, such as AI tools, can serve as assets for law enforcement agencies (LEAs), while also being potential means for criminal activities. There is a grey area in which these tools can be utilized on both sides, highlighting the difficulty in managing this ambiguity from a fundamental rights perspective. 

The workshop’s scenarios and discussion carry significant implications for European research and innovation policies and regulations. By addressing the complex interplay between lawful and criminal economic activities, policymakers and stakeholders have the opportunity to contribute to the creation of a more transparent and secure environment for economic activities within the European Union.

In the ever-evolving landscape of intellectual property rights (IPR), the intersection with cutting-edge technologies and global challenges has become a focal point for policymakers, industry leaders, and scholars alike. This article provides a comprehensive exploration of past, current, and upcoming efforts to shape the future of Intellectual Property Rights

The 8th Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop, which took place on 22 November 2023, served as a platform for insightful discussions centred around the topic of the future of civic resilience.

Participants delved into reflections acknowledging the emergence of resilience as a prominent topic during financial crises, particularly for establishing a resilient financial system. This focus gained substantial momentum in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, where publications began framing resilience as a new compass for EU policy, underscoring the imperative to navigate challenges and transitions in a sustainable, fair, and democratic manner. At the heart of the discussions was the exploration of the genuine meaning of the notion of "resilience".  Attendees contemplated whether resilience is inherently tied to strength or if it manifests as a quality in the absence of strength. Participants engaged in an exploration of potential trade-offs between these diverse perspectives on resilience, prompting thoughtful consideration of whether emphasising one aspect might unintentionally diminish the significance of the other.

Four scenarios have been crafted by the foresight team using a matrix that considers two key axes: Economic and Technological Adaptation, and Social and Environmental Stewardship. Each of these scenarios offers a distinct portrayal of the interplay between economic, technological, social, and environmental factors:  

• Sustainable Breakthroughs - High Economic and Technological Adaptation, High Social and Environmental Stewardship: In this scenario, both economic and technological challenges are effectively managed, and there is a strong emphasis on promoting social equity and environmental conservation. This scenario envisions an ideal future where sustainable practices are prioritized. 
• Community-Compensating - Low      Economic and Technological Adaptation, High Social and Environmental      Stewardship: Despite      facing economic and technological challenges, society in this scenario      places a significant emphasis on community building, social justice, and      environmental protection. It represents a future where community-driven      efforts take precedence in addressing social and environmental concerns. 
• Tech-Driven Dystopia - High      Economic and Technological Adaptation, Low Social and Environmental      Stewardship: This      scenario prioritizes economic growth and technological advancements, but      unfortunately at the expense of social equity and environmental health. It      serves as a cautionary tale, portraying a tech-driven dystopia where the      pursuit of economic and technological progress neglects crucial social and      environmental considerations. 
• Europe in Survival Mode - Low      Economic and Technological Adaptation, Low Social and Environmental      Stewardship: In this      scenario, economic downturns and technological disruptions occur without      effective mitigation, leading to neglect in addressing social and      environmental issues. This scenario depicts a future marked by decline,      emphasizing the importance of addressing economic, social, and      environmental challenges collectively to avoid a downward trajectory.

The R&I policy recommendations stemming from these scenarios include strategies such as identifying and defining boundaries for the forthcoming implementation of cutting-edge technologies with a key focus on prioritizing social stability and welfare. To prevent ecosystem degradation, the team advocates for environmental stewardship, particularly through the stimulation of locally driven and bottom-up generated collaborative and innovative initiatives. Another crucial facet involves the updating of public administration and services, bringing them closer to citizens to proactively prevent institutional degradation. Additionally, the proposals emphasise the stimulation of radical innovation through "glocal" creative initiatives, exemplified by Living Labs, aiming to make a local impact with global significance. Furthermore, a dedicated focus on investing in resilience research was proposed, with the aim to explore new potential needs and innovative approaches.

During the discussions, participants actively engaged in exploring the connections between the different scenarios presented and questioning risks associated with each scenario. The conversation referred to the urban-rural dynamicsand the inclusion of rural areas in the presented scenarios with regard to resilient agricultural food systems. Participants noted that the scenarios were removed from the political landscape on Earth in 2040, specifically regarding the future geopolitical roles of countries such as China, India, and the African nations, as well as considering the evolving trajectories of the United States and the declining trends in Europe. In contrast, the discussions illuminated key insights into the interplay of resilience, community dynamics, and the broader global political outlook.

The coordinator of project RELOCAL offered valuable insights by reviewing the scenarios previously presented through a local lens. RELOCAL, which aimed to explore civic resilience from a local perspective, was another project that highlighted the bottom-up approach between resilience and the local community.

Final discussion points encompassed the crucial emphasis on the local dimension of resilience, recognizing that resilience resides fundamentally in the values of communities. The debate underscored the significant role of local values in shaping the agenda for science and technology such as in the creation of the new Framework Programme for Research and Innovation. The importance of effective multilevel governance in rural areas surfaced as a pivotal factor for enhancing rural resilience. The conversation also delved into system-change theory, emphasising the need to acknowledge citizens as the smallest common denominator and integral contributors to resilience.