This document provides guidance on how to conduct a structured horizon scanning process to identify emerging developments that could have potential impact in the future, and in particular on the environment. It starts with an overview of the guide (Chapter 1) and an introduction to horizon scanning (Chapter 2) in connection with the concept of futures literacy. It then provides a step-by-step approach for conducting a structured horizon scanning process (Chapter 3), including a variety
of diverse sources for spotting signals, different frameworks for signal scanning and several options to unpack and analyse the collected signals and patterns of change through creative methods and exercises. It also proposes a few different and complementary ways of communicating the findings to relevant stakeholders, networks and communities. Lastly, it suggests some tools (Chapter 4) that can be used to strengthen the scanning process. The annexes offer a detailed comparison of such tools and a glossary of terms related to futures literacy.

This project aimed at exploring non-conventional, if not radical, but nevertheless credible futures at a time horizon 2050. This was achieved by a combination of desk research of scientific and grey literature as well as social media scanning, including more unique information resources such as reaching out to activist communities, popular journals and other materials outside the conventional radar on topics relating toward the Green Deal and how to establish a sustainable future. Further, the service developed challenging, emotional and provoking scenarios in the form of stories that contain a “what-if” point of view. Therefore, the narratives include drivers of change, future challenges, possible tensions, consequences of failure and unlikely high-impact "wild card" events.

The project website can be accessed here 

Stories and narratives are a powerful tool of Futures Literacy and Futures Thinking. In recent years, they have been fighting for attention next to scenarios and trend research within the Foresight discipline, and there is a good reason for it. Adding up to 21 stories, the narratives in this booklet deal with the planetary emergency, the existential threat of climate change and the biodiversity crisis, which are driving the European Green Deal. They were built on ideas by people from all around the world. Some were experts in the field, some purely engaged citizens with a story to tell. Stories from 2050 range from plausible sci-fi stories of the future to fictional fairy tales that provoke abstract thinking. Some stories are hopeful; others are concerning. They are going to stimulate your thinking by providing different perspectives and layers of understanding.