For years, the world has been described as being in a state of perma-crisis. As a federal enterprise working in the fields of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH is strongly affected by the political and economic environment in which it operates. This is why it is important for GIZ to understand the underlying drivers of change and possible future developments so that it can prepare for the future and the challenges it will face, ultimately making the organization and its staff more resilient.
With its broad network of staff and international experts in over 120 partner countries, GIZ is well equipped to monitor and differentiate relevant signals and developments. At headquarters, a dedicated foresight team addresses future issues at a corporate level and contributes to the company's strategic decision-making.
GIZ’ foresight report 2024
Sustainable development is GIZ’s core business. The 2030 Agenda provides the framework for GIZ’s global activities. As the year 2030 is getting closer, the question is: will the negotiations on a new agenda be successful? But one thing is clear: any negotiation process and subsequent implementation will be increasingly shaped by geopolitical factors. This is why, the 2024 foresight report of GIZ, focuses on geopolitics, sustainable development and the global agenda for the next decade.
In total, the views of more than 100 GIZ colleagues from GIZ's HQ and the field structure were incorporated into the report through various workshops. In addition, the report is based on extensive analysis of secondary sources, and interviews with more than 30 experts from various (international) institutions to ensure that the report also reflects perspectives from outside GIZ.
The scenarios (strongly condensed for this post) are based on the four archetypes of the Manoa School of Futures Studies and Jim Dator, which represent four recurring paths of human civilization found in all cultures. Each scenario is supplemented by two to three short wildcards, some of which are listed here as examples.
Growth scenario: Clinging to the growth paradigm in a bloc confrontation
The intensifying struggle for hegemony between China and the US is increasingly forcing the countries of the Global South to choose sides in the bipolar global order. In the late 2020s, the bloc confrontation accelerates the growing divergence between the goals of green transformation and securing continued economic growth. Under China's leadership, the BRICS+ countries launch their own global development agenda. The G7 responds with a counter-agenda that emphasizes the importance of democratic rights.
Wildcard example “Billionaires with God complex”: a small group of super-rich individuals plan to reverse climate change through geoengineering, ignoring the incalculable risks.
Collapse scenario: Global disorder – Looking into the abyss
In many parts of the world, the early 2030s are marked by fragility, conflicts over borders and resource distribution. The US retreats into isolationism and the conflict with China over Taiwan is escalating. Acute loss of prosperity in the Global North and a state of socioeconomic emergency in the Global South outweigh long-term challenges, including climate change and dramatically worsening inequalities. Artificial intelligence (AI) is fueling worldwide disinformation campaigns. In the wake of blockades of fundamental UN transformations in the late 2020s, the 2030 Agenda is abandoned.
Wildcard example “Ode to joy ”: External pressure accelerates the European integration and forges a new identity for the EU as a global geopolitical actor.
Discipline scenario: Fragile balance of power and the limits of growth
The early 2030s are marked by a fragile balance of power and a growing recognition of the limits to growth. The systemic rivalry between China and the West has eased in the meantime. Many emerging economies in the Global South continue to close the economic gap with the Global North, but progress is slowing. Higher carbon prices and tighter government regulation, particularly in Europe, are helping to reduce emissions, but not yet at the pace and scale needed. UN member states take the path of least resistance and agree to extend the 2030 Agenda until 2045.
Wildcard example: “China’s economy implodes”: With far-reaching implications for global supply chains and international power dynamics.
Transformation scenario: New global agenda and multilateral cooperation
The global consequences of climate change have led to a veritable cascade of extreme weather events, forcing the global community to rethink international cooperation and climate change efforts. The old global power dynamics have given way to an institution-based multipolar system. China is opening up and is acting as a global driver for renewable energies. Consequently, a new global agenda is adopted in 2030. The new agenda is based on a new understanding that reflects different cultural narratives, values and identities. AI-based innovations are paving the way for sustainable development, and circular economy.
Wildcard example “AI goes rogue”: Within a very short time, all AI-driven systems fail, bringing infrastructure and communications to a standstill in most states.
From scenarios to management response
The scenarios shed new light on the current situation, existing strategies, and (often linear or subconscious) assumptions about the future, enabling GIZ to identify potential opportunities and risks at an early stage and consider these in the interest of our partners and commissioning parties. However, moving from scenarios to action requires an additional step. At GIZ, the foresight team seeks to answer four key strategic questions for each scenario: What plausible changes might occur over the next ten years regarding 1) GIZ’s client base, 2) partner countries, 3) the topics of development cooperation, and 4) the competitive and cooperative landscape? These questions help derive concrete implications from the scenarios, identify action corridors, and support decision-making.
For the first time, the 2024 foresight report also presents ten deliberately provocative theses on the future of GIZ, identifying specific areas for the organization’s further development. The aim is to provide food for thought on the next steps and to encourage an in-depth analysis of GIZ’s future.
To maximize impact, the report was shared at a company-wide launch event and via short videos in internal company news. These rather passive formats were particularly effective in raising awareness of foresight and futures thinking. But even more importantly, it has triggered a wave of requests for tailored input sessions and workshops. As a result, the foresight team engaged with more than 50 organizational units and management teams over nine months in intense deliberations about how to make GIZ a more future-ready organization. The most effective formats went beyond merely discussing the report; they involved jointly exploring scenarios and their implications for the respective work units. Methods such as the Futures Wheel, Windtunneling, Pre-Mortem, and Three Horizons were used. Additionally, the provocative ten theses proved to be a valuable tool for initiating action-oriented dialogue across units. Overall, the report and the various activities reached more than a quarter of the entire workforce. Insights from the report are also actively fed into company-wide strategic processes, including long-term corporate planning, corporate communication, and innovation management.
At GIZ, we see great value in connecting with other organizations and foresight units to strengthen our approaches and shape more resilient, future-ready organizations together. Sharing insights on key learnings, challenges, and good practices with external partners can help refine strategic foresight and navigate common pitfalls. GIZ’s external network was particularly helpful in critically reflecting on the findings of the foresight report and learning from the experiences of other organizations. A meaningful exchange that we are eager to continue – and we actively invite new partners to join the conversation.
