Supports the economic growth in South-East Europe by promoting innovative solutions and facilitating the transfer of technologies and know-how. 

The first organization in the South- East region to implement foresight methods to shape public policy.

For years, the world has been described as being in a state of perma-crisis. As a federal enterprise working in the fields of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH is strongly affected by the political and economic environment in which it operates. This is why it is important for GIZ to understand the underlying drivers of change and possible future developments so that it can prepare for the future and the challenges it will face, ultimately making the organization and its staff more resilient.

With its broad network of staff and international experts in over 120 partner countries, GIZ is well equipped to monitor and differentiate relevant signals and developments. At headquarters, a dedicated foresight team addresses future issues at a corporate level and contributes to the company's strategic decision-making.

GIZ’ foresight report 2024

Sustainable development is GIZ’s core business. The 2030 Agenda provides the framework for GIZ’s global activities. As the year 2030 is getting closer, the question is: will the negotiations on a new agenda be successful? But one thing is clear: any negotiation process and subsequent implementation will be increasingly shaped by geopolitical factors. This is why, the 2024 foresight report of GIZ, focuses on geopolitics, sustainable development and the global agenda for the next decade.

In total, the views of more than 100 GIZ colleagues from GIZ's HQ and the field structure were incorporated into the report through various workshops. In addition, the report is based on extensive analysis of secondary sources, and interviews with more than 30 experts from various (international) institutions to ensure that the report also reflects perspectives from outside GIZ.

The scenarios (strongly condensed for this post) are based on the four archetypes of the Manoa School of Futures Studies and Jim Dator, which represent four recurring paths of human civilization found in all cultures. Each scenario is supplemented by two to three short wildcards, some of which are listed here as examples.

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and breakthrough INNOVation) project, a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to bolster the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and anticipatory methodologies.
The workshop, held on 16 October 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all tech7-nology readiness levels (TRLs), within the broad Mobility domain, broken-down into four key areas: transport systems, networks and multimodality; automotive and roads; rail/freight and logistics and aviation and airports.
Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of 22 different key topics across the key areas above. These signals can be seen as hotspots of innovation that deserve the EIC’s attention for possible future support.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which are presented in the report as drivers, enablers and barriers, and analysed specifically in each of the 4 key areas.

With this project, the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA) aims to systematically integrate fundamental rights into EU foresight processes and activities. The project explores reference scenarios for fundamental rights and considers how different drivers of change could impact on fundamental rights in the period up until 2040. The scenarios will form the basis for a set of foresight policy briefs for selected megatrends. The project builds on the reference foresight scenarios developed by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, with a view to complement them with fundamental rights considerations.

The project includes horizon scanning, retrofitting scenarios, visioning, developing future pathways and policy options stress-testing. In all the activities, the project utilizes FRA’s draft guidance on inclusive, non-discriminatory and participatory foresight. Outputs comprise of a set of fundamental rights scenarios, foresight policy briefs and a guidance on embedding fundamental rights into foresight.

This project and the foresight knowledge it generates will enable FRA and other stakeholders to support EU institutions and Member States in addressing future challenges by creating a foresight framework that incorporates a fundamental rights perspective and ensures that policies remain inclusive, forward-looking and in line with the EU's core values.

This report explores the transformative potential of Key Enabling Technologies in addressing
emerging security challenges within the European Union. By conducting foresight analysis, the report
evaluates technologies such as artificial intelligence, advanced sensing, blockchain, and drones,
highlighting their ability to enhance law enforcement and critical infrastructure resilience, and fighting
crime and terrorism, while exposing vulnerabilities, such as misuse by criminal actors or regulatory
gaps.
The findings emphasise the need for proactive EU policies to both support technology transformation
and mitigate risks, including strategic investments in secure innovation, legal harmonisation, and
addressing societal resilience. This report aligns with the Commission’s 2024–2029 priorities,
supporting a prosperous, secure, and resilient Europe through actionable insights into emerging
security challenges. The recommendations aim to foster effective public-private collaborations,
ensure regulatory coherence across Member States, and promote technological solutions that balance
security needs with ethical and societal values, reinforcing the EU’s position as a leader in sustainable,
innovation-driven policy-making in internal security. 

This report explores the transformative potential of Key Enabling Technologies in addressing emerging security challenges within the European Union. By conducting foresight analysis, the report evaluates technologies such as artificial intelligence, advanced sensing, blockchain, and drones, highlighting their ability to enhance law enforcement and critical infrastructure resilience, and fighting crime and terrorism, while exposing vulnerabilities, such as misuse by criminal actors or regulatory gaps.
The findings emphasise the need for proactive EU policies to both support technology transformation and mitigate risks, including strategic investments in secure innovation, legal harmonisation, and addressing societal resilience. This report aligns with the Commission’s 2024–2029 priorities, supporting a prosperous, secure, and resilient Europe through actionable insights into emerging security challenges. The recommendations aim to foster effective public-private collaborations, ensure regulatory coherence across Member States, and promote technological solutions that balance security needs with ethical and societal values, reinforcing the EU’s position as a leader in sustainable, innovation-driven policy-making in internal security.

This report showcases the results of the two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey carried out within the project “S&T&I for 2050. Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions”. The overarching ambition of this project is the “identification and mapping of future scientific and technological developments that can radically improve ecosystem performance”. The main outcome is to provide “reflections towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (HE), in its broad direction to support the Sustainable Development Goals.”

To this end, quantitative and qualitative methods were employed, among which this report refers to:  

• Patent and bibliometric analysis for selecting the most dynamic Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) domains; 
• Horizon scanning through web mining and human evaluation for identifying key STI directions and specific examples of technological/scientific breakthroughs within these directions; 
• Dynamic Argumentative Delphi engaging relevant experts from around the world in an argument-based exploration regarding the contribution of STI to the capability of ecosystems to flourish from now to 2050. 

As radical innovations are having a profound impact globallyon the macroeconomic environment, the Region of Central Macedonia is monitoringclosely following the developments, trends and variables that favour or affect it or negatively affecting its development.
Institutions and executives from the private and public sector have explored through a participatory and dynamic process (Thematic Participatory Workshop) the variables that will the innovation and entrepreneurship environment of the region with time horizon 2030, identified their dynamics and evaluated their interaction. The findings provided input to the working group for the development of four scenarios that will define the future of innovation in the region of Central Macedonia in the coming decade. These scenarios identified
the development of a proposal of three strategic axes, developing in a stepwise manner in three different periods, which will strengthen the resilience of the region and prepare it to face the conditions in these four futures.

The study is available in Greek.

The project concerns the operation of the One Stop Liaison Office Mechanism of the Regional Authority, the development of digital tools aiming to support the regional ecosystem, while at the same time monitoring and evaluating the Smart Specialization Strategy.

One Stop Liaison Office Operation
Horizon Scanning (Greek)
Innovation 2030 (Greek)
RIS3 Strategy Monitoring
RIS3 Strategy Evaluation
Updating the RIS3 Strategy 2021-2027

The project is co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund

Democracies in Europe have demonstrated resilience and modernisation in the face of various social and technological challenges. Democracy in the age of the Anthropocene will necessitate radical shifts in values, power relations and modes of governance, while also being built on the present, in all its diversity, paradox and insufficiency. Innovating to meet these challenges will require re-imagining how people living in democracies become equipped and supported to co-create resilient, democratic futures in Europe and beyond. Clear visions are needed to build strategies that allow for rethinking and redesigning spaces, institutions, instruments and ways to represent and include people in democratic governance. YouthDecide 2040 aims to support European Union democracy to rise to these challenges through evidence-based historical and contemporary knowledge, strategic foresight, and robust deliberation. 

Specifically, YouthDecide 2040 has the main objective to: co-create with European youth – and older generations, political and institutional actors, and organised civil society – coherent pathways to desired futures of democracy in the European Union in 2040. We translate our main objective into a series of research questions that need to be answered to support the work. Each question is connected to a key objective and corresponding work packages to support co-creation. All activities are planned to be inclusive and open processes – transparently documented along the way – to enable repetition and implementation beyond the life of the project. The project’s ambition is to reinvigorate democracy in and across Europe with visions and pathways – made with active and inclusive citizen participation – for becoming more resilient to current and future challenges. 

Preferred scenarios, and visions from YouthDecide 2040 will aim to inform research and innovation pathways. They will help ensure the alignment of future and ongoing research and innovation with the values and needs of the democratic societies within the EU that support their advancement. The YouthDecide 2040 consortium comprises 11 partners with research expertise in areas of democracy research, foresight, participatory deliberation, co-creation, strategy development, as well as partners working in youth representation and organization, democracy advocacy, design, and multimedia communication. The project duration is three years, until the end of 2027 and it has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101177438. 

The municipality of Diano Marina, a seaside town in the northwestern Liguria region of Italy, in collaboration with the National Research Council of Italy, has launched an initiative in 2022 called “I Venerdi della Conoscenza” (Fridays of Knowledge, hereafter VDC). Link to the webpage.

The awareness of the possible impacts of emerging technologies and global changes on the society and the economy, prompted the mayor of Diano Marina to ask a group of scientists to design and develop activities for involving local communities in reflection on the future.

The aim of VDC is to promote and structure a dialogue between young generations and decision makers, using science as an interface.

A Scientific Committee has identified different aspects to be addressed during meetings that engage the participants to access the state of the art, and discuss them. The ultimate goal of VDC is to involve the local community in becoming more informed and active in shaping the future, which is often regarded as distant from the territorial contexts, and which constitutes the basis of the foresight exercises. The Scientific Committee consists of a selection of the experts who coordinated the Science and Technology Foresight Project of the National Research Council. The involved scientists are a representation of high-level national and international communities.

Students and teachers from some high schools are involved in advance, in order to brief and prepare questions during the meetings. On scheduled Fridays, the Sala Consigliare of the municipality hosts approximately 100 citizens. Students open the debate with lectures identified the week before, then a moderator initiates a debate with the scientists to elaborate the main concepts and challenges on the selected topics. Open questions from the audience conclude the dialogue, which includes the local public authorities that are invited. The meeting are accessible via streaming for a wider participation.

Some of the topics also anticipated or were suggested by those identified by a project funded by the European Commission named the Eye of Europe, whose aim is to support the European decision makers to reflect on the research and innovation priorities through foresight processes.

GIZ Profile: sustainable development for a liveable future

As a service provider in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education work, we are dedicated to shaping a future worth living around the world. We have over 50 years of experience in a wide variety of areas, including economic development and employment promotion, energy and the environment, and peace and security. The diverse expertise of our federal enterprise is in demand around the globe – from the German Government, European Union institutions, the United Nations, the private sector, and governments of other countries. We work with businesses, civil society actors and research institutions, fostering successful interaction between development policy and other policy fields and areas of activity. Our main commissioning party is the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).

How GIZ uses Foresight Methods: As a federal enterprise working in the fields of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH is greatly affected by the business environment in which it operates and by trends in Germany, Europe and the world. Dealing with the resulting uncertainty, complexity and fast-paced change is often very challenging. This makes it important for GIZ to understand the underlying drivers of change and possible future developments so that it can prepare for the future and for the crises it will have to address, ultimately making the company and its staff more resilient.  

This project consists of two domains:

Development and enrichment of key factor descriptions for the NRC FLIS project ‘Scenarios for a sustainable Europe in 2050’

• The aim of the contract was to support the EEA and its network in developing and enriching a robust set of descriptions of 30 key factors influencing sustainable development in Europe. These key factors were used in developing and communicating scenarios as part of the EEA-Eionet project ‘Scenarios for a sustainable Europe in 2050’.

Development of scenarios and related communication tools for the EEA-Eionet project ‘Scenarios for a sustainable Europe in 2050’

• The purpose of the project was to support the EEA and its network in developing two robust and high-quality related sets of scenarios: a set of normative scenarios presenting sustainable futures for Europe in 2050 and a set of descriptive scenarios outlining possible visions of the global context in 2050. These sets of coherent and compelling narratives, complemented by visualisations and other communication products, were used in developing and communicating scenarios as part of the EEA-Eionet project ‘Scenarios for a sustainable Europe in 2050’.

The project page and results are a vailable in the EEA websites.

This document provides guidance on how to conduct a structured horizon scanning process to identify emerging developments that could have potential impact in the future, and in particular on the environment. It starts with an overview of the guide (Chapter 1) and an introduction to horizon scanning (Chapter 2) in connection with the concept of futures literacy. It then provides a step-by-step approach for conducting a structured horizon scanning process (Chapter 3), including a variety
of diverse sources for spotting signals, different frameworks for signal scanning and several options to unpack and analyse the collected signals and patterns of change through creative methods and exercises. It also proposes a few different and complementary ways of communicating the findings to relevant stakeholders, networks and communities. Lastly, it suggests some tools (Chapter 4) that can be used to strengthen the scanning process. The annexes offer a detailed comparison of such tools and a glossary of terms related to futures literacy.

FOD EEA Urban Mobility 1:

The aim of the project was to scan the horizon for emerging issues that may affect what urban mobility might look like in Europe in 2050. Furthermore, implications of these possible developments for air quality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, noise, land use, and in turn for the health and well-being of the inhabitants of European cities were explored. The emerging issues identified contributed to some of the key questions that were identified as part of the EEA’s urban Sustainability Conceptual Framework, such as how cities can look past the personal car era and reimagine their streets as pathway for recovery, built around walking, biking, and public transit. The outcomes of the project included six factsheets on emerging issues related to urban mobility and their impact on health and the environment, including trends, uncertainties and impacts for environment, health and related policy making, including sources of evidence, as well as three possible narratives with visuals on urban mobility in 2050, where two or more of the emerging issues are combined in different but meaningful ways, and a final short report describing the methodology and references used.

FOD EEA Urban Mobility 2:

The purpose of the project was to strengthen the outputs of the previous contract (European urban mobility 2050), which covered a horizon scan for emerging issues that may affect what urban mobility might look like in Europe in 2050. Specifically, the study produced a strengthened and enriched version of the six emerging issues identified and developed in the previous contract, two additional emerging issues identified as part of the previous contract but not developed, namely ‘New and upcoming business models for delivery and mobility‘, and ‘Combination of V2X and IoT’, mind-map representations of the three narratives identified in the previous contract illustrating the key elements, connections and implications on health and environment at three spatial levels: individual, city, and regional / network of cities, and a 4-page briefing that summarises the process and outputs from this contract and the previous one. The briefing was designed to inform EEA’s audience of the ongoing forward-looking work associated with urban mobility.

The foresight study focused on school education (ISCED levels 1-3) in the EU. It aimed at:

• developing four scenarios, describing potential alternative futures of the school education in the EUby 2040.
• identifying the preferred scenario developments.
• providing recommendations on the policy measures that could be introduced, or strengthened, tohelp school education in the EU move towards the preferred future scenario.

The development of the scenarios was based on the factors of change1, identified through desk research, horizon scanning, and extensive stakeholder involvement. More than 80 European Commission officials, school education experts, representatives of teacher, student and headmaster umbrella organisations, and other stakeholders, from across the EU, contributed to the study, by participating in four workshops, a Delphi survey, and interviews.

A foresight study on school education (ISCED levels 1-3) in the EU, which aimed at developing four scenarios, describing potential alternative futures of the school education in the EU by 2040, identifying the preferred scenario developments and providing recommendations on the policy measures that could be introduced, or strengthened, to help school education in the EU move towards the preferred future scenario.

This foresight study's purpose was to anticipate future challenges for consumer policy in the context of the twin transition and the short- and long-termed impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behaviour, consumption patterns and markets in Europe with a time horizon of 2025 to 2030. In order to find answers to the complex questions of uncertain future developments the foresight team combined several approaches of foresight for anticipatory governance. This includes a systematic horizon scanning of existing reports for weak signals of change in all fields of society such as societal developments, technology, economy, environment, policy and values. The literature and data based information collection was combined with explorative exercises like a scenario development, a visioning process and a gap analysis to develop new ideas for policy options. The engagement of stakeholders and experts on consumer policy was crucial throughout the whole process, in particular for the analysis of influencing factors, alternative scenarios and suggestions for policy actions. 

With its anticipatory and exploratory nature, the study was a pilot project for the implementation of comprehensive strategic foresight in DG JUST. Accordingly, the project was also used to build capacity for foresight in dealing with future uncertainty. Representatives of several departments of the DG actively participated in the workshops in all four steps of the process and thus got to know and tested the methods of foresight. These include participatory and qualitative foresight methods such as horizon scanning and scoping for identifying key future trends, scenario and vision development for exploring different possible futures and identifying challenges, and roadmapping approaches for developing options for action. Another important
element of the study was the intensive involvement of stakeholders in all steps of the process, especially in the development and discussion of future scenarios and in the development of new policy ideas.

The DG can use the various results of the Foresight process for the further future-proof implementation of the New Consumer Agenda. The trends examined for the scenarios can be reviewed at regular intervals with regard to new developments and impacts on consumption and consumer protection. The scenarios provide an overview of possible futures of consumption in Europe after the COVID-19 pandemic and serve for exploring the scope of possible developments. The visions for consumer protection and empowerment, especially of vulnerable groups and consumers with special needs, summarise stakeholders' expectations for consumer policy in the next 10 years. The action fields prioritised together with stakeholders for consumer policy in and after the pandemic and the ideas for policy actions can now be used by the EC to set its own priorities and develop ideas into concrete actions. The EC may not want to take up all the ideas presented here, but the suggestions can provide guidance on which issues are of high importance from a stakeholder perspective in the COVID-19 crisis.

This foresight study's purpose was to anticipate future challenges for consumer policy in the context of the twin transition and the short- and long-termed impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behaviour, consumption patterns and markets in Europe with a time horizon of 2025 to 2030. 

In order to find answers to the complex questions of uncertain future developments the foresight team combined several approaches of foresight for anticipatory governance. This includes a systematic horizon scanning of existing reports for weak signals of change in all fields of society such as societal developments, technology, economy, environment, policy and values. The literature and data based information collection was combined with explorative exercises like a scenario development, a visioning process and a gap analysis to develop new ideas for policy options. The engagement of stakeholders and experts on consumer policy was
crucial throughout the whole process, in particular for the analysis of influencing factors, alternative scenarios
and suggestions for policy actions. 

With its anticipatory and exploratory nature, the study was a pilot project for the implementation of comprehensive strategic foresight in DG JUST. Accordingly, the project was also used to build capacity for foresight in dealing with future uncertainty. Representatives of several departments of the DG actively participated in the workshops in all four steps of the process and thus got to know and tested the methods of foresight. These include participatory and qualitative foresight methods such as horizon scanning and scoping for identifying key future trends, scenario and vision development for exploring different possible futures and identifying challenges, and roadmapping approaches for developing options for action. Another important element of the study was the intensive involvement of stakeholders in all steps of the process, especially in the development and discussion of future scenarios and in the development of new policy ideas.

The DG can use the various results of the Foresight process for the further future-proof implementation of the New Consumer Agenda. The trends examined for the scenarios can be reviewed at regular intervals with regard to new developments and impacts on consumption and consumer protection. The scenarios provide an overview of possible futures of consumption in Europe after the COVID-19 pandemic and serve for exploring
the scope of possible developments. The visions for consumer protection and empowerment, especially of vulnerable groups and consumers with special needs, summarise stakeholders' expectations for consumer policy in the next 10 years. The action fields prioritised together with stakeholders for consumer policy in and after the pandemic and the ideas for policy actions can now be used by the EC to set its own priorities and develop ideas into concrete actions. The EC may not want to take up all the ideas presented here, but the suggestions can provide guidance on which issues are of high importance from a stakeholder perspective in the COVID-19 crisis.

The aim of the contract was to produce guidance on how to plan, run, analyse and communicate the results of a systematic horizon scan on emerging issues with relevance to the environment with limited resources. The process was intended to be feasible for a small group of horizon scanners with different backgrounds and levels of experience in horizon scanning processes.

This project aimed at exploring non-conventional, if not radical, but nevertheless credible futures at a time horizon 2050. This was achieved by a combination of desk research of scientific and grey literature as well as social media scanning, including more unique information resources such as reaching out to activist communities, popular journals and other materials outside the conventional radar on topics relating toward the Green Deal and how to establish a sustainable future. Further, the service developed challenging, emotional and provoking scenarios in the form of stories that contain a “what-if” point of view. Therefore, the narratives include drivers of change, future challenges, possible tensions, consequences of failure and unlikely high-impact "wild card" events.

The project website can be accessed here 

The EU introduced missions as a new instrument in Horizon Europe. Mission Boards were appointed to elaborate visions for the future in five Areas: Adaptation to Climate Change, Including Societal Transformation; Cancer; Healthy Oceans, Seas, and Coastal and Inland Waters; Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities; Soil Health and Food. Starting in autumn 2019, five Foresight on Demand projects supported them with foresight expertise and methodology. This report provides the work in support of the Mission Board on Soil Health and Food. Adopting a long-term perspective, the project first contributed to better understand the drivers, trends and weak signals with the most significant potential to influence the future of soil health and food. With the Mission Board, three scenarios for 2040 were sketched. In the final step, system-thinking knowledge was applied to identify concepts, solutions, and practices able to promote systematic change in the sector.

The European Union introduced missions as a new instrument in Horizon Europe. Mission Boards were appointed to elaborate visions for the future in five Areas: Adaptation to Climate Change, Including Societal Transformation; Cancer; Healthy Oceans, Seas, and Coastal and Inland Waters; Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities; Soil Health and Food. Starting in autumn 2019, five Foresight on Demand projects supported them with foresight expertise and methodology. This project provides the work in support of the Mission Board on Cancer. In interaction with the Mission Board members and responsible Commission services, the project team scanned trends and drivers for cancer, developed two future health scenarios targeted at fighting cancer and roadmaps of events and milestones in the future of fighting cancer.

This report provides the findings from the ‘Foresight on Demand’ project supporting the Horizon Europe
Mission Board for Healthy Oceans, Seas, Coastal and Inland Waters in its task of defining specific
Mission(s) to be addressed in Horizon Europe. The overarching goal of the project was to support the
reflections of the Mission Board from a forward-looking perspective.

The team of experts was set up by the ‘Foresight on Demand’ consortium to provide the Board with wellversed
expertise in both foresight methodology as well as thematic developments on the future of
oceans and water. The objective was to think along with the board and to stimulate the debates by
raising surprising and challenging issues based on forward-looking analysis and exploration. The project
provided the Mission Board with new information, (systemic) insights and/or alternative future visions
that connect the extremely multi-dimensioned topics tackled by this Mission Board.

The project had started with the scoping phase of identifying focal areas of which results were discussed
in the meeting with the Mission Board. Subsequently, the foresight team explored further future
uncertainties and knowledge gaps via a real-time Delhi survey to stakeholders. The scoping phase
began with the scanning of 33 foresight reports looking towards 2050, foresight databases and news
feeds to address long-term developments and emerging signals of change. In particular, the foresight
expert team developed five focal areas, which were presented to the Mission Board to provide
interconnected insights as well as challenging and provocative ideas to enrich their work. The five focal
areas are summarised in the table below:

After the initial phase of scanning and analysing emerging issues and synthesising the findings into five
focal areas the results were discussed with the Mission Board. In the meeting the discussion led the
Mission Board request the foresight team to continue the foresight work and identify further data and
knowledge gaps related to oceans and waters, the recovery of oceans and waters and their role in
climate change mitigation.

In line with foresight practice as well as with the Mission Board’s explicit desire to involve a wider public,
the study engaged stakeholders via a real-time Delphi method highly suitable to address future
uncertainties. The Delphi method is a structured group communication process, dealing with subjects,
on which often unsure and incomplete knowledge is available, that are judged upon by experts. The
idea is that the respondents can learn from the views of others, without being unduly influenced by the
hierarchies or other societal structures and power relations.
Invitations to the survey were sent to stakeholder groups in different sectors of society, in particular:
research and development, policy, industry and civil society. Approx. 3000 European stakeholders were
invited. The survey platform was open two weeks in February 2020 leading to the total of 238 registered
participants of which 138 finished the survey.

Participants assessed the total of 15 future statements and proposed new ones to be considered by the
Mission Board, in three areas: i) oceans and other water ecosystems, ii) the recovery of healthy oceans
and waters and iii) the role of oceans and waters in climate mitigation. The results of the assessments
presented in mean values are summarised in the following table in each of the three areas.

The findings form the survey can be summarised on each of the areas as follows:

• Oceans and other water ecosystems: In this area, all proposed issues are accepted as
  important but, with the current attitude towards marine and water ecosystems, respondents
  believed that actions will not be sustained properly. The reason for this lack of consistency
  between “right things to do” and what is actually done probably resides in cultural gaps that
  make it difficult to pass from theoretical analyses and legislation to action, with the reversal of
  current trends. Nonetheless, the survey indicates consensus about the adoption of the
  ecosystem approach, recognising that humans, with their cultural diversity, are an
  integral component of ecosystems and emphasizing the need for collaboration between the
  scientific community, the economic sector, policymakers and the public at large.
• The recovery of healthy oceans and waters: In this area, the survey showed a remarkable
  consistency, from all stakeholders, on the actions contributing to healthy oceans and waters.
  This point could almost guarantee the success of the mission as it seems that the society
  understands the enormous contribution of healthy oceans and waters on the planet earth.
  Although the list of what can be achieved in the near future could be endless, the fact that we
  have to include society at large in addressing challenges, should be our first step.
• The role of oceans and waters in climate mitigation: The respondents provided a global
  impression that Europe can be leader in several fields of climate mitigation. If, however, the
  rest of the world is not addressing these efforts of climate mitigation, the role of Europe will not
  have significant impact. There is no single major technological solution that, alone, would curb
  the climate change, a goal that might be achieved by a mix of technologies and regulations, at
  the right geographic scale, and as early as possible. Furthermore, positive and negative
  impacts of each technology have to be assessed carefully as very little is still known on the
  mid-term and long-term impacts of the different technologies available today. Much more
  research and stakeholder cooperation are required to select the right technologies and
  the optimum strategies on time, in order to avoid unmanageable trends.
• Further areas to be explored: Next to the topics proposed by the foresight expert team,
  stakeholders were asked to suggest other topics that should be understood better and acted
  upon in the EU. Three main topics emerged: research and research infrastructure, civil
  society, and corporate social responsibility.

Final remarks and recommendations

The first part of the foresight study led to the descriptions of five possible focal areas for European
innovation action in the realm of oceans and waters: 1. Climate-resilient coastlines, 2. Clean water for
the blue planet, 3. Vital aquatic ecosystems, 4. Open digital twin of oceans and waters, 5. Humans at
sea. All these focal areas have similar magnitudes, notably if we consider an extensive view of "humans
at sea" not only as an island network but as a continuum between a vulnerable and densely populated
low elevation zone and a potentially harmful but also rich coastal ocean. In view of addressing the focal
areas or their elements in the future actions towards sustainable development in Europe, it is worth
prioritising such efforts in relation with the general theory of systems that establishes the hierarchy of
systems in three spheres showing that human activities and economy are nested into natural systems
and must obey their laws. Traditional illustrations of sustainability, however, show only a small overlap
of the three spheres, this overlap representing sustainability.

The real-time Delphi survey confirmed that there is a need for a holistic approach leading to more
structured actions. This is widely recognized but seldom satisfied. Too specific actions, undertaken while
ignoring the behaviour of the rest of the ecosystems, may lead to temporary success but will surely not
improve the overall situation. This calls for enhanced efforts in improving ocean literacy at all levels,
from the scientific community (too focused on reductionistic approaches) to the economic, social and
industrial sectors. Furthermore, the conceptual landscape embracing water ecosystems (linking oceanic
and inland waters) is very fragmented, with the high risk that while fixing specific problems other
problems are created. Hence, we conclude with three recommendations.

1. Adopt a holistic approach for balanced actions that calls for improving water literacy at all
   levels of society.
2. Create networks of interest using a common (not too technical) language embracing water
   ecosystems (including both oceanic and inland waters) to overcome fragmentation in society.
3. Conduct holistic impact assessments and establish monitoring mechanisms of measures
   implemented to fix specific problems to avoid creating in parallel new problems in complex
   ecosystems.

The EU introduced missions as a new instrument in Horizon Europe. Mission Boards were appointed to elaborate visions for the future in five Areas: Adaptation to Climate Change, Including Societal Transformation; Cancer; Healthy Oceans, Seas, and Coastal and Inland Waters; Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities; Soil Health and Food. Starting in autumn 2019, five Foresight on Demand projects supported them with foresight expertise and methodology. This project provides the work in support of the Mission Board on Healthy Oceans, Seas, and Coastal and Inland Waters. It encompasses a comprehensive horizon scanning to identify trends and drivers, weak signals and wild cards. On this basis, five focal are were proposed. A real-time delphi survey on further uncertainties incorporated a wider community of experts.

The foresight project “Support to the Mission Board Healthy Oceans, Seas, Coastal and Inland Waters”
(Framework Contract 2018/RTD/A2/OP/PP-07001-2018-LOT1) aimed to provide forward-looking
evidence to support the Mission Board for this area.
The team of experts was set up to provide the Board with well-versed expertise in both foresight
methodology as well as thematic developments on the future of oceans and water. The objective was
to think along with the board and to stimulate the debates by raising surprising and challenging issues
based on forward-looking analysis and exploration. The project provided the Mission Board with new
information, (systemic) insights and/or alternative

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under
the FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and break-
through INNOVation) project, a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the
Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to bolster the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and
anticipatory methodologies.

The workshop, held on 17 September 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation
of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology
readiness levels (TRLs), within the EIC's Medical Imaging and AI portfolio.
Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of pa-
tents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance
to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of eight key
topics: generative AI for healthcare; digital twins; multimodal data analysis; explainable AI in medical
imaging; application of AI to specific diseases/conditions; XR - augmented and virtual realities; tensor-
valued diffusion encoding, and AI-generated synthetic data for training AI. Furthermore, the workshop
identified additional wild cards with high novelty and disruptive potential such as: blockchain, edge
computing and differential privacy for secure, AI-driven medical imaging and collaborative healthcare
optimisation and quantum medical imaging.

Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and pro-
motion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: Tech-
nological advancements and cross-sector applications; data infrastructure, AI models, and regulatory
frameworks; workforce, education and societal factors; clinical efficiency and patient outcomes; trust,
ethics, and AI adoption; financial pressures and industry investment in AI healthcare.

Humans have internal clocks that clock vital biological rhythms. These are innate, but can be positively or negatively influenced by the environment. Daily rhythms are regulated by the “circadian system” (the internal clock).
The circadian system is inextricably linked to the regulation of the sleep-wake rhythm. Disruptions to the circadian system can therefore cause sleep disorders and associated cognitive impairment as well as various health problems. 

How do we humans influence our future by neglecting these rhythms? And what can we individually or as an organisation do to support our rhythmic life? Currently, we are de-synchronising ourselves, our organs and our lives... we are on an unhealthy way. What we need is a future chronobiologically enlightened society. 3 Policy Briefs and a final report describe the state of the art of our knowledge and many options for the future.

The Covid-19 pandemic has shattered our sense of ‘normal’, and amplified uncertainties and issues at the core of what the future may hold. The project ‘After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world’ examined possible futures of 2040 for the EU emerging from the crisis of the pandemic, as possible contexts for EU R&I. The five scenarios described in this report chart different possible post-Covid-19 evolution paths, creating new perspectives on key EU R&I policy issues.

The overall objective of "3 InDustrial Ecosystems tAckLing supply chain dISrupTions and driving the adoption of advanced technologies" (IDEALIST) is to support SMEs in energy-intensive industries, aerospace and defence, mobility, transport & automotive industrial ecosystems in their ability to understand and adapt to changes brought about by rapid and unexpected developments in the world such as the COVID-19 crisis or the Russia-led war in Ukraine.

These three sectors are of capital importance for the European economy and despite their specificity, have common challenges that the project helps address: transition to more sustainable practices, competitiveness issues in a context of scarcer raw materials and more expensive energy, change in consumption habits and more. Being more resilient means giving SMEs the opportunity to be a player in these changes and no longer just a spectator or follower. To do this, the project evolves around three pillars: strategic foresight to establish relevant tools and behaviors to anticipate and better prepare for change in an orderly and systematic way; technology uptake to overcome obstacles related to the implementation work of Advanced Technologies and lay the foundations of alliances between tech-savvy and traditional SMEs; and supply chains to identify critical dependencies and weaknesses in order to limit the impacts of disruptions on value chains. This work will lead to the realization of Pilot Projects promoting the meeting between ecosystems, facilitated by the use of the Hack&Match method. The mobilization of the AGORA platform led by EIT Manufacturing will support this objective of matchmaking and community building. The project is carried by a relevant consortium of 14 partners from 6 European countries and Ukraine representing several thousand manufacturing companies.

Find more information here.
 

Humans establish highly diverse and situated relationships with nature. Over generations, these human-nature relations transform dynamically. In doing so, future imaginaries, expectations and visions accompany our commitment to, action in and representation of nature. Genres such as climate fiction and practices such as ocean clean-ups provide insights into (re-)emerging social, cultural and emotional connections between people and nature.

Future Lives with Oceans and Waters (FLOW) looks forward and explores changing human-nature relationships in the context of aquatic ecosystems. The transdisciplinary project brings together foresight, research on socio-ecological interactions, marine science and natural resource management with young people from across Europe. FLOW aims to create new knowledge and connections to reinforce a new perception of the importance of aquatic ecosystems in the Anthropocene. To do so, the project combines horizon scanning, ethnographic fieldwork, experiential futures workshops and co-creation in an innovative way. As a Research and Innovation Action, FLOW supports the Restore Our Oceans Mission of the EU.

4CF The Futures Literacy Company is a consultancy entirely focused on strategic foresight and long-term strategies. For nearly two decades, 4CF has been on the mission to help its clients prepare for an uncertain tomorrow. The Company has executed hundreds of projects for private companies, public institutions and international entities, including the European Commission and its agencies (EUDA, ENISA), FAO, UNFCCC, UNESCO, UNEP and UNDP. 4CF is at the forefront of global innovation, and actively contributes to the development of cutting-edge foresight tools, including 4CF HalnyX (Delphi platform), 4CF Sprawlr, 4CF FLEx.

The EU Policy Lab is a space for cross-disciplinary exploration and innovation in policymaking. We apply collaborative, systemic and forward-looking approaches to help bringing the scientific knowledge of the Joint Research Centre into EU policymaking.

We experiment with the new, the unprecedented and the unknown. We seek to augment our understanding of the present, challenge and reinvent the way we think about the future.

The EU Policy Lab is also a mindset and a way of working together that combines stories and data, anticipation and analysis, imagination and action. We bring new practical and radical perspectives to tackle complex problems in a collaborative way. Together, we explore, connect and ideate to create better policies.

The Competence Centre on Foresight is part of the EU Policy Lab and supports EU policy making by providing strategic and future-oriented input, developing an anticipatory culture inside the European Commission, and continuously experimenting and developing different methods and tools to make foresight useful for decision making processes. 

This report presents the results of a the project S&T&I for 2050: science, technology and innovation for ecosystem performance – accelerating sustainability transitions. The project’s overarching goal was to identify and map future scientific and technological developments, which can radically improve ecosystem performance.

The project was conducted along several phases:

• Based on literature review, the project team developed three perspectives on future relations between humans and nature and humans’ role in the flourishing of planetary ecosystems. The three perspectives are: i) protecting and restoring ecosystems, ii) co-shaping socio-ecological systems, and iii) caring within hybrid collectives
• A two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) online survey explored the most dynamic scientific and technological developments. The survey engaged over 600 experts globally in enriching, assessing and prioritizing STI directions in terms of their potential to contribute to the capability of planetary ecosystems to flourish from now to 2050.
• Drawing in on the three perspectives and the results of the DAD survey, six case studies on core sustainability issues explored the three perspectives. Reflections on implications for R&I policies in the context of the European Green Deal conclude each of the six case studies: i) Law for Nature; ii) Land Use Futures; iii) Soil to Soul; iv) Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy; v) Ecosystems and Micro-and Nano Cosmos; vi) Data as Representation

Human performance has long been a dominant pursuit and driver of progress in science, technology and innovation (STI). As notions of performance are still guiding STI research, discussions on its nature are relevant and shape STI directions. Human needs and performance are inextricably linked to challenges related to the health of the planet. Considering that, a debate is warranted to shift the attention from human performance to a more inclusive performance of flourishing ecosystems.
In this context, the vision of the project “S&T&I FOR 2050. Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions” was driven by the desire for STI efforts to place ecosystem performance on par with human performance. This broadens the focus of STI to encompass multiple conceptualisations of human-nature relations and to contribute to sustainability transitions.

The project’s overarching goal was to identify and map future scientific and technological developments, which can radically improve ecosystem performance. In doing so, it provided reflections on the 2nd strategic plan of Horizon Europe (HE), in its broad direction to support the Sustainable Development Goals.

The study was conducted along several phases:

• Based on literature review, the project team developed three perspectives on future relations between humans and nature and humans’ role in the flourishing of planetary ecosystems. The three perspectives are: i) protecting and restoring ecosystems, ii) co-shaping socio-ecological systems, and iii) caring within hybrid collectives
• A two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) online survey explored the most dynamic scientific and technological developments. The survey engaged over 600 experts globally in enriching, assessing and prioritizing STI directions in terms of their potential to contribute to the capability of planetary ecosystems to flourish from now to 2050.
• Drawing in on the three perspectives and the results of the DAD survey, six case studies on core sustainability issues explored the three perspectives. Reflections on implications for R&I policies in the context of the European Green Deal conclude each of the six case studies: i) Law for Nature; ii) Land Use Futures; iii) Soil to Soul; iv) Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy; v) Ecosystems and Micro-and Nano Cosmos; vi) Data as Representation

The vision of FOSTER is to build a foundation from which a new Knowledge and Innovation System (KIS) for Europe’s food system can emerge. The current structure is insufficient to address the emerging challenges of nourishing people in a healthy and sustainable way. Key objective is to gain insights into how it can be built to be more inclusive and better governed. 

FOSTER shall help to transform Europe’s food system outcomes and will achieve this by: 

• building a FOSTER Platform including food system-state of the art knowledge, foresight by semi-automated Horizon scanning, trend and threats-analysis and new multi-dimensional scenarios of EU food systems to 2040; 
• implementing the FOSTER Academy – including four Summer Schools – for integrating food system-related disciplines and citizen science to enhance food system understanding across the ERA; 
• initiating and assessing a co-creation and co-learning process within six national resp. regional Citizen Driven Initiatives (CDIs), in which new knowledge, strategies and Action Research Agendas are gained; 
• scaling out and deep CDIs solutions and approaches to other territorial contexts; 
• studying different R&I mechanisms of policy support for mission-oriented R&I policy for food systems transformation, and analysing and ground-proofing them in each CDI; 
• strengthening science-policy interfaces by co-learning processes with external experts and developing recommendations for food systems R&I policies tailored to different geographies and sectors; 
• identifying the trigger points to help ‘unlock’ system lock-ins and support further dynamics towards system transformation; 
• and applying reflective monitoring on all FOSTER’s co-learning activities to develop insights into how the KIS can be broadened from an agricultural-KIS to a food system-KIS.
  

To inspire adoption of FOSTER learnings, over 20 workshops and a final conference will be conducted; scientific position papers and policy briefs will be widely communicated. 

The general objective of the project was of strengthening the anticipatory capacity for the development of evidence-based public policies in the field of Research, development and Innovation (RDI) in Romania.

A considerable part of the project consisted in the elaboration of the National Strategy for Research, Innovation and Smart Specialization 2022-2027 and the key implementation instrument, namely The National Plan for Research, Development and Innovation 2022-2027.

The foresight components of the project included:

- A Vision building process for setting the sistemic transformations by 2030

- The foresight based entrepreneurial discovery process for selecting national smart specializations

- The priority setting for the National Research Agenda, which is focused on societal challanges.

The foresight results have been integrated in the final documents (e.g. national strategy and plan) and adopted by Governmental decision.

The National Strategy for Research, Innovation, and Smart Specialisation (SNCISI) 2022–2027 represents Romania’s comprehensive approach to fostering a modern, sustainable, and impactful research and innovation ecosystem. Coordinated by the Ministry of Research, Innovation, and Digitalization (MCID), this strategy aligns with Romania’s national development goals and its commitments under the European Research Area (ERA). SNCISI is designed to address pressing societal challenges, stimulate economic transformation, and elevate Romania’s global standing in research and innovation.

This strategy highlights the pivotal role of research, development, and innovation (RDI) in driving sustainable growth, advancing scientific discovery, and creating new technologies that directly enhance quality of life, productivity, and economic competitiveness. At its core, the SNCISI aims to integrate the principles of open science, ensure inclusivity in research priorities, and align Romania’s efforts with global and European benchmarks.

Through SNCISI, Romania emphasises a dual commitment: first, to support foundational and applied research excellence by creating favourable conditions for researchers, institutions, and private stakeholders; second, to catalyse public-private collaboration that addresses challenges like climate change, digitalization, and health crises. The strategy views science and innovation not merely as tools for economic growth but as vital contributors to societal well-being and global problem-solving.

SNCISI’s development is rooted in an extensive consultative process involving regional and national stakeholders, ensuring that the strategy is representative of Romania’s diverse socioeconomic landscape. It integrates input from academia, government, industry, and civil society to outline actionable pathways that connect research activities with tangible societal and economic outcomes.

The strategy is framed around four major objectives (OGs) and five smart specialisation domains that align with regional and national strengths. These axes ensure a coherent alignment of resources, infrastructure, and expertise to drive both regional and national priorities forward.

Objectives include:

OG1: Developing the research, development, and innovation system.
OG2: Supporting innovation ecosystems tied to smart specialisations.
OG3: Mobilising towards innovation by enhancing collaboration with the private sector.
OG4: Increasing European and international collaboration.
The SNCISI underscores a commitment to modernising infrastructure, attracting and retaining talented researchers, and fostering an innovation-driven economy. Through its structured framework, it also ensures that public funds are allocated effectively to stimulate high-impact, sustainable outcomes.

There is a fascination with the future, as a repository of both opportunities and threats that affects all of us. Concern for what we call "the future of work" is part of this mosaic. Regardless of their geographical space, people think of their work as being, in varying doses, a source of material well-being, but also a component of their identity. Uncertainties about how will people work in the future – how will they earn income and build a purpose, a meaning through their work – is an important topic, and often a source of concern.
What are we heading for? What kind of future is desirable? What is possible, respectively probable, from what we deem desirable? What can be done to get there? All these are legitimate questions that deserve our attention.
In the context of recent waves of technological progress, the future of work is the subject of intensive controversy. Often in the public space there is an overwhelming emphasis on the impact of new technologies on work, neglecting other shaping forces relevant to labor market dynamics. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to open a wider conversation about the future of work on the 2030 horizon.

The perspective used in this paper is a causal and hierarchical one: from drivers of change towards their impact on labor. Most studies on labor market developments start from a context modeled by several global megatrends. Following this logic, the second chapter describes the four main trends identified in literature: i) technological developments, especially automation; ii) globalization, especially cross-border flows and widening inequalities; iii) demographic changes, in particular the ageing population in the global North; iv) climate change, environmental degradation and the development of the green economy.
Within these trends, ongoing or likely transformations have been identified that have or could have an impact on global labor market dynamics. The section describing each megatrend is accompanied by a box with what we call "signals of change" - contextualizing empirical data that serve as justifications/explanations of the phenomena described in that section. In the context of the global transformations we outline here, the fourth chapter presents a catalogue of emerging occupations, by which we mean both existing (highly dynamic) or incipient occupations and occupations that do not yet exist but are likely to exist in 2030 or beyond
The third chapter was added later in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic and is a brief overview of the transformations in the global labor market – some already visible, others likely - due to this global crisis.

***

The study was published in Romanian as part of the project POCU INTL - Quality in higher education: internationalization and databases for the development of Romanian higher education.

Project webpage: pocu-intl.uefiscdi.ro

The Vision was developed as part of the project Elaboration of the Strategy on Strengthening the Efficiency of Public Administration 2014-2020.

The vision building process involved over 40 representatives of public administration agencies and a variety of stakeholders in two day-long workshops. The process comprised four main stages:

• an exploration of drivers of societal change by 2025;
• defining an aspiration for 2025;
• defining success scenarios for 2025 
• defining transformational factors for public administratio reform.

In the same project, a Dynamic Argumentative Delphi was deployed for assesing the future impact of a set of policy measures in relation the established vision.

The resulting vision document and the selected policies has been included in the National Strategy on Strengthening the Efficiency of Public Administration 2014-2020, which has been adopted by Governement Decision.

The FOReSiGHT project
FOReSiGHT - Flexibility and Resilience in Digital Transformation and Intelligent Automation - Advanced Skills and Tools for Academia and Entrepreneurs is a 30-month roject implemented between 2020 - 2023 by a consortium of 7 partners universities, SMEs, NGOs) from 5 countries: Romania, Germany, Italy, Croatia and Belgium.
Overall, FOReSiGHT aims at creating a digital collaboration platform between universities and companies to anticipate and deliver future skills on intelligent automation, digital transformation & algorithmic governance, and foresight, thus fostering resilience and flexibility.

The Foresight Kit for Entrepreneurial Minds
This generation of students needs to embrace the idea of the future with a sense of activism and design. We encourage them to regard the future as a malleable and constructible set of possibilities. This attitude is in stark contrast with people- the youth included- feeling they are witnesses to the future unfolding, or merely in the position to adapt to change as it occurs. Future minded students are the ones exploring, imagining and deliberating potential futures. Students with entrepreneurial ambitions are invited to use the tools in this kit to go even further than imagining and debating the future; they are invited to co-create futures that are desirable for the ecosystems/communities/ clients they aim to serve.
We trust this foresight kit for entrepreneurial minds will provide useful guidance for young people interested in shaping the future. While this is an intellectual journey aimed at university students, the kit is meant to support facilitators in organizing and running a foresight experience. Thus, the kit describes the procedural steps for organizing a foresight process for students interested in generating entrepreneurial ideas that may address the challenges and opportunities of the future, as opposed to merely speculating the opportunities of the present.

This is the final report from a foresight study that aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027). The study lasted for 18 months and involved a wide range of activities that this report aims at presenting.

These activities aimed at providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making contributions – issues, trends, perspectives, ideas - that could contribute novel elements to the more structured processes of strategic planning that were to follow. The work followed two important directions that were recommended by EFFLA (2012)1 as core elements of bringing foresight into EU R&I policy: knowledge-based review and broad engagement.

Knowledge based review was conducted with the help of the 40 experts who constituted the team that worked on the project. All these experts have contributed as authors to the authorship of the different chapters of this report. About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and ideas about their policy implications, and through membership in the on-line platform of the project at www.futures4europe.eu, which reached 307 people. Last, we acknowledge the 943 experts who responded to our final consultation survey on the implications of our foresight for the directions of EU R&I policy.

The foresight process
The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities:
• As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis.
• An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on www.futures4europe.eu.
• An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions.
• On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the areas of interest resulted in five deep dives on the following topics:
> Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering
> Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative
> The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership
> Global Commons
> Transhumanist Revolutions
• Further areas of interest identified since were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments
> Social Confrontations
> Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities
> The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities
> The Future of Health
• A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days.
• Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collect suggestions from further experts and citizens about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy.

This foresight study has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. 

The project responded to a highly topical and significant need of public administration regarding the availability of timely and relevant information on dynamically developing technological and socio-economic changes for the strategic management of research and innovation policy. Very fast and dynamic changes and their possible impacts need to be predicted and responded to in a timely and flexible manner. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically monitor technological and social trends and identify in advance the resulting opportunities and potential threats to socio-economic development. The aim of the project was to develop a system for continuous monitoring and evaluation of technological trends and collection of signals associated with technological changes with a potential impact on the Czech economy and society. The project output is a unique horizon scanning tool in the Czech environment combining the latest methods in the field of data science with elements of expert assessment based on participatory methods used in prospective studies. The result of the project (and the newly created horizon scanning tool) is the ability to continuously identify and analyze emerging technological trends and emerging technologies and assess their impacts on the Czech economy and society. The expected impact of the project is to strengthen strategic management in public administration by a prospective component of monitoring the medium- and long-term horizon of technological and social development, thereby making the implementation of research and innovation policy in the Czech Republic more efficient.

The concept of the global commons refers to resource domains that fall outside national jurisdiction, to which all have access, including high seas, airspace, outer space and cyberspace. Given the growing significance of these domains and related resources for states and other global and local players across a range of purposes, defining the global commons concept has become more complex.

Hydrogen is „just“ an elementary molecule consisting of two hydrogen-atoms. Why is there so much fuss about this simple molecule that even a whole economy should or could be built upon it? The reaction of hydrogen (H2) with oxygen releases a lot of energy while forming pure water. In the other direction, water can be divided into hydrogen (H2) and oxygen with the help of electricity (there are of cause also other hydrogen building reactions mostly built on fossil fuels/biomass); this is simple chemistry. Compared to fossil fuels, water is nearly unlimited on the planet.

The project “S&T&I for 2050” is structured around five intertwined tasks:

The 'Horizon Scanning – Tips and Tricks' publication provides an insightful step-by-step support on how to run an effective horizon scan - and how to address underlying biases while doing so.

Paulo Carvalho has been working in the field of futures and foresight for more than 25 years. On one hand, he is a professor in foresight, strategy and innovation at the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Lisbon. On the other hand, he founded a foresight company five years ago, IF Insight Foresight, focussing on consulting, horizon scanning and strategic intelligence, as well as other strategy and innovation projects. He talked to Futures4Europe about Insight Foresight’s recently developed tool ORION and how it could revolutionise foresight practices.

The study focuses geographically on Europe and looks toward 2050, on regimes of stewardship of land and sea and address the role of ownership, access and use rights in rural areas (cities excluded), multiple uses of spaces (both land and sea), biodiversity, food (both aquaculture, fisheries and agriculture), energy (use of renewables), raw materials (mining etc.), carbon removal and storage, adaptation to climate change. While the challenges are global, they are addressed especially from the European research and innovation policy perspective. 

The immense social and technological evolution of the Anthropocene continues transforming the Earth’s surface and its dynamics through extensive (mis-)use of its resources, both on the land and in the sea. This policy brief develops scenarios on rural and marine areas in Europe in 2050 and subsequent implications to today’s R&I policy in Europe. Each scenario considers i) Economy and technology, ii) Demographics, lifestyles and values, iii) Governance and iv) Environment.

In Scenario A, European Civic Ecovillages pursue self-sufficiency and contribute to establishing a cooperative, locally oriented, caring economy restoring the ecosystem carrying capacities in land and sea. In Scenario B on Sustainable High-tech Europe, European businesses enjoy global leadership in regenerative and multi-functional high-tech solutions for energy, aquaculture and agriculture. In Scenario C on the United States of Europe, centrally planned Europe is divided between intensive use of land and sea and large conservation areas. Scenario D on European Permacrisis portrays Europe in a post-growth and politically scattered context that leads to low rates of innovation and fragmented use of land and sea.

None of the scenarios features a decisive solution to the global climate and biodiversity crises. Scenario A forcefully targets the resolution of the biodiversity crisis in Europe, by aligning human practices with nature, but provides little support to global climate and biodiversity crises. Scenario B proactively tackles the biodiversity crisis both in Europe and internationally but struggles with the fragmentation of efforts and with scaling up good practices and wider impact to curb the crisis. Scenarios C and D with intensive use of nature reduce biodiversity. Thanks to European-wide coordination Scenario C can protect vast areas with positive impacts to biodiversity, whereas Scenario D also struggles with the major fragmentation of conservation efforts and its detrimental impact on biodiversity. Such challenges illustrate the importance of balanced approaches in developing both local and global solutions to climate and biodiversity crises.

All scenarios depict a future of rural and marine areas in the context of extreme weather events and ecological crises, all be it with different intensities. Social developments, instead, range from major social confrontations to more collaborative and inclusive practices. Their policy implications include, among others, the need to address major risks of patchy land use that hamper the sufficient size of ecosystems and diminish resilience. The scenarios also touch upon integrated spatial planning of urban, rural and marine areas, and how the effective use of spaces can benefit from the further extension of user rights. Future research could explore if and how land ownership models in some rural areas could be replaced or complemented with public ownership and user rights. Furthermore, policy implications include a need for balancing sustainability with food affordability and security in different modalities of agriculture and aquaculture. The challenges of climate and biodiversity crises addressed by the scenarios suggest that balanced approaches are needed in developing both local and global solutions.

This brief is the result of one of eight Deep Dive Foresight Studies in the project ‘European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe’ conducted by the Foresight on Demand’ consortium for the European Commission. During the spring of 2023, an expert team identified factors of change and organised two scenario and one policy implications workshops also engaging experts from academia, business and public administration around Europe. The process was also supported by discussions in the Horizon Europe Foresight Network.

This report, part of the FUTURINNOV project—a collaboration between the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and the European Innovation Council and SMEs Executive Agency—provides the second literature review of third-party reports, in a continuous workstream that surfaces periodically cross-sector emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations.
It summarises findings in a final selection of 30 signals and trends through an iterative methodology focused on their potential impact and novelty.
These findings are categorised and analysed across the 10 critical technology areas defined by the European Commission, as well as through other frameworks such as the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform and the EIC’s portfolios and specific taxonomy.
The report concludes with a cross-cutting analysis and offers recommendations to support the EIC’s strategic intelligence, particularly in prioritising innovation funding.
Additionally, it aims to raise awareness among EU policymakers about technological developments that may not yet be widely known.

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and breakthrough INNOVation) project, a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to bolster the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and anticipatory methodologies.
The workshop, held on 13 May 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technolo-gy readiness levels (TRLs), within the EIC's Advanced Materials portfolio and with a particular fo-cus on their use in the Energy sector.

Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their sig-nificance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics: accelerated material design/synthesis; biomaterials as part of the circular economy; advanced materials allowing new applications; closed loop battery recycling; innova-tions in catalysis; organic batteries for sustainable energy storage; design to performance bat-teries; design to cost batteries; and electrochemical water treatment. Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novelty and disruptive potential such as: circularity of materials (safe and sustainable by design); membranes / separators; process optimisation; 3D printing of electrode materials for energy and environmental engineering applications; and use of AI for the study of materials.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: governance and compliance frameworks; funding; collaboration and knowledge exchange; sustainable and efficient development; infrastructure and technological advancement and limita-tions; industry and market dynamics and constraints; innovation and risk management; supply chain and raw materials; and talent development.

This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Center (JRC), the European Commissions's science and knowledge service.

It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. This report is based on research of the JRC. It does neither include any information or data collected in the context of the EU Observatory of Critical Technologies, nor does it prejudge the future work of the Observatory. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 

The foresight exercise by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) from 2022 listed 46 emerging and disruptive technologies relevant for space, defence, and related civil industries, which are of strategic importance for the European Union (EU). Throughout the process, participants focused on four future critical technologies that deserve particular attention: (i) quantum communications and cryptography; (ii) space platform; (iii) integrated photonics; and (iv) nuclear micro-reactors. These future critical technologies bear a high level of impact and a high probability of future EU dependency on others. For each one, the report includes a series of recommendations to address risks, challenges and future dependencies. 

Beyond the listing and analysis of key technologies, the authors summarised 10 clusters of topics related to technology development and adoption: (i) geopolitics; (ii) cooperation; (iii) investment; (iv) market; (v) skills and knowledge; (vi) ethical issues; (vii) regulations and standards; (viii) development of technology building blocks; (ix) twin transition and security of assets; and (x) data and communications.These insights can support further research and policy developments. The report concludes with a detailed explanation of the methodology applied and the results of intermediary phases.

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and breakthrough INNOVation) project, a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to bolster the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and anticipatory methodologies.

The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio.

Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics: quantum sensing; quantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics models; materials for quantum; Artificial Intelligence for quantum; error correction; solid-state scalability; quantum for Artificial Intelligence; quantum as a service – metacloud; and quantum computers. Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility.

This report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making.

This work that has led to this literature review (1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies, (2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report, (3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies (4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights (5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting.

By using the best publicly-available data to produce a harmonised internal database, along with an appropriate filtering and selection methodology, the authors aim to provide a support platform for future-oriented technology analysis of relevance for other EU policy-making initiatives.

Established by the European Commission, Foresight-on-Demand is a mechanism to respond to the demand for quick inputs to policy-making by drawing on the best available foresight knowledge.

FoD aims at offering the European Commission services with timely and effective support related to crisis situations, emerging risks, and policy challenges.

The FUTURINNOV project run by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches. This is done through activities to identify funding priorities, inform programme design, contribute to policy feedback, and develop institutional governance. 

The main objectives are to:
• Provide short and medium-term future-oriented evidence-based advice on signals and trends of emerging technologies, breakthrough innovation, and investment patterns;
• Support the development of long-term EIC strategic intelligence, grounded in anticipatory, collective, and hybrid methods, towards knowledge transfer and capacity building; and
• Explore innovative anticipatory thinking and future-oriented methodologies to support EIC in its mission as a funding body and a knowledge- provider for policy design and implementation.
The project started in the beginning of the 2024 and will run until February 2025. Outputs of the FUTURINNOV project will include three literature reviews identifying and analysing signals of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations as well as findings from horizon scanning workshops.

Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1

The report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making. The literature review

(1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies,
(2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report,
(3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies
(4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe 

Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights(5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting.  

Read some insights from the authors on the blog. 

Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 2

The second volume of the literature review with 30 selected signals and trends that were considered particularly relevant to the 10 critical technology areas identified by the Commission. Some examples are:
• Neuromorphic chip optimised for energy efficient AI workloads
• Laser-equipped satellites for secure quantum communications
• Possibilities of microgravity bioreactors and 3D bioprinting for regenerative medicine
• Self-consuming rockets to reduce space debris and improve efficiency
• Potential to capture wasted 'reflected' energy from PV systems
• Preparation–free, adhesive skin patches to help people control robotic exoskeletons.

(Dis)Entangling the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects.
These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics:
•quantum computers
•quantum sensing
•quantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics models
•materials for quantum
•Artificial Intelligence for quantum
•error correction; solid-state scalability
•quantum for Artificial Intelligence
•quantum as a service – metacloud

Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility.

Materialising the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of advance materials for energy

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise on emerging technologies in advanced materials for energy. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics: 

• accelerated material design/synthesis
• biomaterials as part of the circular economy
• advanced materials allowing new applications
• closed loop battery recycling
• innovations in catalysis
• organic batteries for sustainable energy storage
• design to performance bat-teries
• design to cost batteries
• electrochemical water treatment

Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novelty and disruptive potential such as: circularity of materials (safe and sustainable by design); membranes / separators; process optimisation; 3D printing of electrode materials for energy and environmental engineering applications; and use of AI for the study of materials.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: governance and compliance frameworks; funding; collaboration and knowledge exchange; sustainable and efficient development; infrastructure and technological advancement and limita-tions; industry and market dynamics and constraints; innovation and risk management; supply chain and raw materials; and talent development.

Imagine the future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations
in the field of medical imaging and AI

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under
the FUTURINNOV project. The workshop, held on 17 September 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology
readiness levels (TRLs), within the EIC's Medical Imaging and AI portfolio.
Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of pa-
tents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance
to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of eight key
topics: 

• generative AI for healthcare
• digital twins
• multimodal data analysis
• explainable AI in medical imaging
• application of AI to specific diseases/conditions
• XR - augmented and virtual realities
• tensor-valued diffusion encoding
• AI-generated synthetic data for training AI

Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novelty and disruptive potential such as: blockchain, edge computing and differential privacy for secure, AI-driven medical imaging and collaborative healthcare
optimisation and quantum medical imaging.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and pro-
motion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: Tech-
nological advancements and cross-sector applications; data infrastructure, AI models, and regulatory
frameworks; workforce, education and societal factors; clinical efficiency and patient outcomes; trust,
ethics, and AI adoption; financial pressures and industry investment in AI healthcare.

Mobilising the future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of mobility

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV project. The workshop, held on 16 October 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs), within the broad Mobility domain, broken-down into four key areas: 

• transport systems, networks and multimodality
• automotive and roads
• rail/freight and logistics 
• aviation and airports.

Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of 22 different key topics across the key areas above. These signals can be seen as hotspots of innovation that deserve the EIC’s attention for possible future support.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which are presented in the report as drivers, enablers and barriers, and analysed specifically in each of the 4 key areas.

Decision makers are faced with a world characterised by increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. These conditions make it more difficult to assess risks when making strategic decisions or planning for the long-term. This project from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) EU Policy Lab starting 2023 presents a foresight approach to increase preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create.

Foresight methods offer a way to consider and focus on risks that may be beyond the scope of traditional quantitative and qualitative risk assessment approaches. Several snapshots of the future depict different worlds that have undergone substantial changes as a consequence of emerging developments. An analysis of the risks inherent in the possible futures identified ten risk clusters that are relevant for decision makers, and mapped future developments that might lead to them.The same development pathways that could lead to risks can also create opportunities, and the study provides some examples. Decision makers face the challenge of mitigating the adverse effects of risks, while reaping the benefits of potential opportunities. This study also presents the results of a Delphi survey that evaluated the scope and severity of risks. Three of the 40 risks identified in this study were assessed to be potentially existential for humanity: 1) environmental degradation, 2) environmental disasters, and 3) loss of power by humans. The project started in 2023 and will run until 2024. Next in the development is an engagement tool for policymakers to push the boundaries of foresight on risks in their specific policy making domain. Stay tuned for its launch, later in autumn 2024! 

Download the Risks on the horizon report  

Read the blog post from the authors  

4Growth will showcase the uptake of digital technologies and data through the “4Growth Visualisation Platform” that will combine powerful storytelling with advanced visualisations of the market.

This 3-year Horizon Europe project, funded by the European Commission, brings together 13 partners with the aim of understanding where, how and to what extent digital technologies and data are being adopted within the agricultural and forestry sectors. The project started in January 2024 and will end in December 2026.

The twelve scenarios in this deep dive are informed by transhumanism, portraying futures in which the human condition – our bodies, functions, and lives – and the features of societies are fundamentally transformed by technology. Even though scenarios are built along the lines of particular scientific and/or technological advancements, the discussion spreads over sociotechnical ensembles and the re-conceptualization of the relationship between technology and society by 2040.

The work leading to this report started with a horizon scanning exercise to identify a series of technological innovations and scientific breakthroughs that may be considered key factors towards re-engineering human nature. In parallel, the authors explored diverse narratives regarding the human condition and significance in the world, dreams and fears embodied in the so-called collective imaginary, echoing through myths and fantasies to literature, cinematography and the wider culture. At the intersection of these explorations, twelve topics were selected and further expanded into scenarios. They are not intended to cover the full spectrum of themes regarding human enhancement, but present a relevant ‘sample’ of potential future trajectories.

We propose these narratives as exploratory scenarios, describing futures where both positive and negative consequences are palpable. They are not normative, outlininga vision of the future deemed desirable. We invite readers to regard them as devices for imagining the future and debating the future. They aim to nurture a reflection on the dynamics of change, future opportunities and potential threats, and in doing so they contribute to future preparedness.

Three types of scenarios were developed:

• The first type describe futures where scientific and technological advancements enhance embodied experiences: Sensory augmentation: extending human senses beyond the natural limits and adding sensorial modalities which are not native to humans. Sensory and brain stimulation, psychedelic microdosing: inducing altered states of consciousness, for healing purposes or for fostering new perspectives on being human. Molecular therapies for delaying aging; and new artificial reproductive technologies allowing people to be fertile until much older age.
• The second type explore futures where human capabilities are extended by embodying non-biological means: a significant share of elderly people using exoskeletons for prolonging active life, for maintaining their mobility or as a form of assisted living; brain-computer interfaces leveraged in semi-automatized work environments, to improve learning outcomes, and to control smart devices; Brain to brain communication supporting cognitive and emotion sharing, leading to the creation of ‘hive minds’ covering multiple aspects of life.
• The third type focus on the simulation and replication of the human body and mind: Digital body twins allowing alert signals for disease prevention and the simulation of the short- and long-term effects of a person’s behavior on their health and body; Digital twins of the brain allowing testing hypotheses in cognitive science, in mental health studies, responses to different types of treatments; Digital immersive worlds – gaming/ fantasy worlds or ‘mirror worlds’ that are replicating real-life environments – hosting interactions among people and automated entities; Digital replicas of the deceased changing the socio-political understanding of grief; and Artificial agents with complex underlying computational procedures (including e.g. self-reflection, development of value system, affective computing) and sophisticated interfaces calling for new theoretical frameworks of consciousness.
  
  
  ***
  The twelve scenarios presented in this deep dive are part of the Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe project, which was conducted by Foresight on Demand Consortium on behalf of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD).

In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers.
Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used
as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape
technological change.

In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory
intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning.

Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.
The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches
to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European
Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this
way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop.

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction.

The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.
Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives.

The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC.

Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, present leading challenges in policy-making nowadays. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks, emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policy-making and preparedness.

This report is a part of the “Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation” (ANTICIPINNOV) project, a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre with the European Innovation Council (EIC).

The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation trends and signals produced by public and private entities outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support innovation funding prioritisation. Other insights were extracted, namely those related with the scope of the EIC Programme Manager portfolios.

The Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI) is a public institution with legal personality subordinate to the Ministry of National Education in Romania.

Attributions:

• we assist the National Council for the Financing of Higher Education (CNFIS) in the elaboration of proposals for methodologies and documentation related to the financing of higher education;
• we coordinate, under the scientific guidance of the advisory councils of the Ministry of Education with responsibilities in R&I, programs within the National Plan for Research, Development and Innovation;
• we carry out and implement institutional and system development projects, related to higher education, research, development or innovation, with national and international funding, with the approval of the Ministry of Education;
• we offer consultancy and technical assistance for the development and management of projects within the domestic and international programs of scientific research, technological development and stimulation of innovation.

Democracy across Europe has experienced immense challenge, change and uncertainty in recent years (Canal 2014; European Commission & Merkel; 2019) - from the rise of populism to decreasing levels of public trust in governance institutions and processes, to the war in Ukraine. Set against the backdrop of these issues, EUARENAS has been investigating how cities and urban spaces can strengthen legitimacy, identification and engagement within the democratic public sphere. Specifically, EUARENAS has been exploring how participation and deliberation in democracy and decision-making can be increased, and how voices and communities who are excluded from such arenas can be more actively involved.

Foresight is one of the research strands present in EUARENAS. In this project, foresight is both a tool for understanding democratic innovations as they emerge, and for engaging citizens and other actors in such innovations within the participatory and deliberative realms. Mixed method approaches to foresight that incorporate a diversity of activities such as media discourse analysis, lived experience storytelling, social media analysis, three horizons mapping, driver-mapping, scenario and visioning exercises and policy stress- testing have been used in EUARENAS to investigate and hypothesise over future trends and scenarios in participatory democracies. 

From this work, we propose the following recommendations for Cities wanting to strive towards more equitable local democracies:

1. Address structural barriers to participation
2. Build relationships of trust
3. Invest in formal and civic education
4. Make decisions for the long-term

A more equitable, inclusive local democracy landscape is not too far in the distance for us to conceive it being possible. In fact, the future is now – the seeds to create it are already being planted, they just need nurturing by:

• Scaling and mainstreaming existing pilot or niche practices that are working locally – whether that beparticipatory budgeting, citizen assemblies or other smaller-scale projects – so that these become thenew ‘status quo’
• Adopting test and learn approaches to promote experimentation and on-going learning – this will enableongoing innovation and be responsive to society's needs
• Finding ways to celebrate and connect-up the small changes that are taking place - this will help people see that progress is being made, even when it feels like things are changing too slow

The ongoing inter-institutional European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) Horizon Scanning activity is led since 2022 by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission and the European Parliamentary Research Services. An iterative methodology is rolled out at three successive levels, involving experts in a variety of policy areas and across several EU institutions.

Firstly, at the outset, this exercise builds a wider EU community engaged in horizon scanning. Their task at a first level has involved looking for future developments that sit at the margins of current thinking and planning, the so-called ‘signs of new’.

Secondly, sense-making workshops are organised on a monthly basis to consider through new lenses the identified ‘signs of new’ collected over the month and find links and interconnections among them across policies and sectors. The aim of these second-level workshops is thus to imagine possible impactful future developments, ‘signals of change’, using the collected signs as prompts.

Thirdly, future impact workshops, conceived as exploratory and prioritisation workshops are organised after conducting a few sense-making workshops. These workshops also include the participation of officials across all ESPAS institutions and aim to prioritise the three potentially most impactful ‘signals of change’ from among those identified at an earlier stage.
This careful process results in Horizon Scanning newsletters providing a broader perspective on policy making.

Read the latest newsletters here: Horizon Scanning | ESPAS

See also blog post describing the project and its role in EU : Spotting the Future: How Horizon Scanning can help shape EU Policy - European Commission (europa.eu) 

ESPAS Horizon Scanning feeds to other ESPAS projects. Read the Global Trends Reports published every five years.

Partners:

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC)
European Parliamentary Research Services (EPRS)

Anticipatin and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation (ANTICIPINNOV) project is a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) with the European Innovation Council (EIC) 2023-2024 to strengthen strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. Learn more about the project from its's three different branches. 

Everybody is looking into the Future! A literature review of reports on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation

Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, present leading challenges in policy-making nowadays. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks, emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policy-making and preparedness. The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation trends and signals produced by public and private entities outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support innovation funding prioritisation. Other insights were extracted, namely those related with the scope of the EIC Programme Manager portfolios. 

Read EU Policy Lab blog post :Everybody is looking into the future: a technology foresight perspective 

Scanning deep tech horizons: Participatory collection and assessment of signals and trends

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction. The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives. The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC. 

Read EU Policy Lab blog post: Technology foresight: anticipating the innovations of tomorrow 

Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation: Methods and Best Practices

 In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers. Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape technological change. In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning. Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop. 

Futures Garden: Pioneering Policy Innovation through Speculative Design

At Futures Garden, we embark on a visionary journey to redefine policy-making for Europe's future. Our unique platform collaborates with leading futurists, innovative designers, and engaged EU citizens to envision a Europe enriched by diverse potential futures, each with its own opportunities and challenges. Our mission? To revolutionize policy creation by intertwining speculative design with creativity, empathy, and analytical insight. Our four-step approach ensures a comprehensive and impactful exploration:

• Horizon Scanning: We dive into cutting-edge ideas and emerging trends, identifying opportunities that could shape Europe's future.
• Speculative Design: Our creative process transforms abstract concepts into tangible, thought-provoking scenarios, making future possibilities more accessible and engaging.
• Citizen Engagement: We delve into the societal implications of these speculative scenarios, gathering diverse perspectives and insights from EU citizens.
• Policy Reflection: The final step involves analyzing the potential impact of these innovative ideas on policy-making, ensuring that future EU policies are forward-thinking, inclusive, and impactful.
  

Creating fictional artifacts through speculative design
Futures Garden aims at creating inspiring alternative future scenarios through the use of fictional future artifacts that invite to reflection and debate. The pilot project took place in 2023 and addressed two themes:

• “Dealing with future selves” explores new ways of being, individually and collectively, examines new practices and technologies that enhance self-reflection and sharing of emotions, which help shape our choices in life and nurture a renewed sense of togetherness.
• “Extending human perception to new scales” explores the richness of non-human intelligences, expanding our attention and appreciation for their unique sensory worlds, their “umwelt” – what they “feel” and how they “think”. In doing so it departs from the human-centric worldview towards a deeper understanding and celebration of life on Earth.
  
  The resulting fictional artifacts took the form of short, thought-provoking movies – Inwards and Symbiotic – which render the imagined future scenarios more tangible, immersive and engaging.
  
  Watch "Inwards" - The 2050s a re a time of deep social reconfiguration. No longer believing in the myth of perpetual economic growth, recipes for self-empowerment, and technological fixes, citizens of Europe seek to regain agency by turning inwards.
  New cultures of emotional excellence and material minimalism emerge, supported by tools for assisted introspection and emotion sharing. In the wake of this quiet revolution, the social contract progressively integrates a renewed sense of togetherness.
  
  Watch "Symbiotic" - Set in the Symbiocene era of the 2050s, a time marked by an expanded understanding of intelligence beyond human confines, Symbiotic explores a revolutionary breakthrough. Scientists have created a device that allows humans to experience the perceptions and sensory worlds of other intelligent beings, immersing them in the 'umwelt' of these creatures. This film documents the first groundbreaking experiences through the device, capturing the profound experiences of those who ventured into these new realms of intelligence.

This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning.

The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe.

The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities:

• As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis.
• An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on futures4europe.eu.
• An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions.
• On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics:
  > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering
  > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative
  > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership
  > Global Commons
  > Transhumanist Revolutions
  
• Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments:
  > Social Confrontations
  > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities
  > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities
  > The Future of Health
  
• A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days.
• Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy.

The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project.

This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 

Food systems require urgent and profound transformation to become sustainable, both in Europe and worldwide. Social innovation plays a pivotal role in transforming today’s food systems into ones that are economically and socially feasible, and sustainable within planetary boundaries.

The project Reimagining the Food System: scanning the horizon for emerging social innovations was conducted by the Foresight on Demand consortium between July - December 2021, on behalf of the European Environment Agency. It engaged in a systemic examination of emerging social innovations across the food chain, conducted using horizon scanning, a tool to detect early signs of potentially important developments. Thus, it offers insights into the experimentation taking place in alternative ways to produce, trade and consume food.

Project phases:

• The horizon-scanning combined web mining with a filtering and validation process, using machine learning and human evaluation. The exercise identified over 240 weak (or early) signals from a variety of news articles, blogs and grey literature published in English between 2017 and 2021. The signals were aggregated into 24 closely related subsets, with each cluster hinting at a potential emerging issue (see image below);

• Next, 21 representatives from civil society organisations, business, academia and government discussed these issues at a sense-making workshop in September 2021;
• Following the workshop, 10 emerging issues were prioritised for characterisation. The characterisation was based on desk research and 11 semi-structured interviews with experts in the field. The 10 selected emerging issues include developments in new foods, products, services, and business and governance models. These issues have often been enabled by existing technologies and new forms of local partnerships, involving a variety of engaged stakeholders. They vary in their degree of maturity and novelty: some are relatively new developments, while others lend new perspectives to known subjects. Moreover, some provide new combinations of existing elements, while others are niche practices beginning to filter into the mainstream:
  
  1. Agroecology: a way of producing food and living, a science and a movement for change
  2. Soulful soil: alternative methods for nutrient and pest management
  3. The power of many: community-supported agriculture networks and initiatives
  4. Food-growing cities: urban farming, integrated food policies and citizen involvement
  5. Muscle-up: alternative protein sources for human consumption
  6. Knowledge is power: ensuring traceability and informing consumers
  7. Reclaiming retail: (re)connecting farmers with consumers and businesses
  8. Procurement strategies supporting sustainable agricultural and fishing practices
  9. Menu for change: restaurants feed appetite for sustainability
  10. The gift that keeps on giving: upcycled foods and food into energy

Read the European Environment Agency's briefing building on key findings of the project: Reimagining the food system through social innovations — European Environment Agency (europa.eu) 

4strat is running an online session on Horizon Scanning as a method for navigating uncertainty and exploring emerging signals. 

Join foresight practitioners Ullrich Lorenz and Ana Z. Keser for a dive in into:

🔎 Weak Signals & Sense Making: How to identify early indicators of change and make sense of them in a complex environment. 

📌 Scanning sources & practices: Explore best practices for gathering data from diverse sources to uncover opportunities and risks.

🌐 Tools & AI: Learn how AI and digital platforms are enhancing the scanning process, making it more efficient and insightful.   

What to expect: 

▪️ Practical guidance on how Horizon Scanning can support strategic decision-making and long-term planning.

▪️ In-depth insights from experienced foresight professionals on how to execute a platform-driven Horizon Scanning. 

▪️ A structured approach to integrating both human expertise and AI in identifying Weak Signals and emerging trends.

Interested in Joining this free webinar? Register here.

As a Coordination and Support Action, project “Eye of Europe” aims to enhance the integration of foresight practices into Research and Innovation (R&I) policy making across Europe. Ultimately, the project envisions a more cohesive and influential R&I foresight community that contributes significantly, as a collective intelligence, to shaping and guiding policy decisions.

To this end, Eye of Europe builds on existing initiatives and experiences to foster knowledge-sharing between foresight practitioners and policy makers, attract domain experts in foresight endeavours, and engage a broader audience in futures thinking. Nurturing futures4europe.eu as the online home for the community and running various face-to-face events with different stakeholders will underpin these ambitions.
Methodologically, the project relies on the following building blocks:

• futures4europe.eu as the online hub for the R&I foresight community in Europe: The platform accommodates the interests of various stakeholders such as foresight experts, beneficiaries, domain experts, and an active audience. It operates on multiple integration levels, from mapping organizations and experts to sharing foresight results and capabilities. Moreover, it acts as the communication gateway for ongoing foresight activities, events, educational and inspirational materials.
  
  
• Sharing of practices: This entails mapping institutions engaged in R&I foresight activities, promoting mutual learning through interactive formats, developing shared visions for the future of foresight in R&I policy within the European Research Area (ERA), fostering exchanges among the foresight in R&I policy community through conferences, encouraging dialogues between futurist/expert communities, academics and policy practitioners.
  Key figures: 5 mutual learning events (MLE): 2 online, 3 face-to-face events; 1 vision building event for the Future of R&I Foresight in ERA; 2 conferences
  
  
• Running foresight pilots: Conducting a series of pilot workshops and online consultations with diverse formats, methodologies, and participants. This involves identifying topics of common interest within the European Research Area (ERA), where foresight perspectives offer added value, designing and implementing tailored pilot foresight activities involving various stakeholders, harnessing lessons learnt and feeding them into the platform and other dissemination channels.
  Key figures: 11 Foresight pilot processes: 3 exclusively with citizens, 4 mainly with experts and researchers tackling specific R&I topics, 4 involving a bespoke group of participants. Out of the 11 events, 8 will be face-to-face events, and 3 pilots will take place online
  
  
• Boosting futures literacy: The project encourages meaningful engagement with diverse audiences, from foresight professionals, researchers, policy-makers to various futures sensitive profiles (e.g. entrepreneurs, journalists, artists) and the wider civil society. The project will provide guides, methodology toolboxes, and training modules for R&I foresight and futures literacy, incorporating written and multimedia content.
  Key figures: 5-10 short training sets for participants in foresight exercises; 1 training module for foresight beneficiaries; 1 foresight training for early career researchers, 1 Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on R&I foresight; 12 conversational podcasts; 6-8 Short videos and/or animated materials showcasing foresight processes and outcomes
  
  
• Fueling the public discourse around futures: Promoting the project and fostering the foresight community via the online platform futures4europe.eu and complementary channels such as social media and a dedicated newsletter. In addition to highlighting the project's own initiatives, Eye of Europe will also aim to promote foresight content developed in other projects, showcasing a diverse range of perspectives and insights within the foresight field. The quarterly newsletter will feature various content types like interviews, project updates, and foresight-related articles. Social media, particularly Futures4Europe's LinkedIn page, will be used to engage professional communities and wider audiences, with a focus on sharing project activities and fostering discussions.

Institutul de Prospectiva is a research organisation (NGO) with the mission to stimulate future-awareness aimed at addressing the challenges of contemporary societies. To this end, we implement tailored foresight exercises supporting strategic orientation in the public sector, with a focus on foresight for R&I policy at European and national level.

Prospectiva is part of the Foresight-on-Demand (FOD) consortium, tasked with advising the European Commission and fourteen other EU organisations on science and technology policy programming for a period of four years (April 2024 – March 2028).
This is an extension of the previous successful cooperation within the Foresight on Demand framework contract (2019-2023); during this period Prospectiva has contributed to numerous projects, on components related to horizon scanning, large scale Delphi consultations, scenario building, co-creation workshops, speculative design, and the elaboration of various briefs, in-depth case studies and reports. These projects addressed a range of themes, among which the future of food, of retail, of ecosystems’ flourishing, and even of the human condition.