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FutuRes1March 2023 - February 2026

Towards a Resilient Future of Europe

FutuRes is an EU-funded collaborative research project. It connects leading European demographers and economists with experts from policy and stakeholder engagement. The FutuRes Policy Lab developped eight qualitative scenarios, which describe possible futures of Europe, centered around the continent's population development. These scenarios are based on sound research data which were connected narratively by policymakers and other experts.

European societies are ageing. This puts strain on labour markets, social systems, families, and intergenerational solidarity. Additionally, crises and shocks occur as a result of the changing global climate, violent conflict and pandemics.

The challenge of the day is to create social policies that are resilient. Resilient in the sense of enduring, flexible, adjustable, but also sustainable, humane and fair. In this, the role of demographic researchers is to analyse population data and to provide data analysis and modelling that can support policy-making for a better future.

FutuRes is directed by Prof. Arnstein Aassve of Bocconi University in Milan, one of Europe’s leading experts on crisis resilience. The project brings together a transdisciplinary group of experts to identify policies for the resilience of Europe’s ageing population. It is funded by the European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation programme.
An exceptional feature of FutuRes is that dialogue between the research team, policymakers and other stakeholders has been underway since the beginning. “Behind us are the days when researchers simply present their findings at the very end of a project”, says Prof. Aassve. Alongside its research, FutuRes will implement a Policy Lab, where scientists will match their research to practical challenges to resilience and aging, and propose knowledge-based policies. Through a series of larger and smaller events across all three years of the project, this transdisciplinary engagement, will shape the FutuRes research and ensure actionable results.

Posted on: 27/03/2025

Last Edited: 14 days ago

The Applied Research and Communications Fund1

Building bridges between science and business

Supports the economic growth in South-East Europe by promoting innovative solutions and facilitating the transfer of technologies and know-how. 

The first organization in the South- East region to implement foresight methods to shape public policy.

Posted on: 19/03/2025

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Last Edited: 14 days ago

GIZ‘s latest foresight work on geopolitics and sustainable development

Future-proofing the organization

For years, the world has been described as being in a state of perma-crisis. As a federal enterprise working in the fields of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH is strongly affected by the political and economic environment in which it operates. This is why it is important for GIZ to understand the underlying drivers of change and possible future developments so that it can prepare for the future and the challenges it will face, ultimately making the organization and its staff more resilient.

With its broad network of staff and international experts in over 120 partner countries, GIZ is well equipped to monitor and differentiate relevant signals and developments. At headquarters, a dedicated foresight team addresses future issues at a corporate level and contributes to the company's strategic decision-making.

GIZ’ foresight report 2024

Sustainable development is GIZ’s core business. The 2030 Agenda provides the framework for GIZ’s global activities. As the year 2030 is getting closer, the question is: will the negotiations on a new agenda be successful? But one thing is clear: any negotiation process and subsequent implementation will be increasingly shaped by geopolitical factors. This is why, the 2024 foresight report of GIZ, focuses on geopolitics, sustainable development and the global agenda for the next decade.

In total, the views of more than 100 GIZ colleagues from GIZ's HQ and the field structure were incorporated into the report through various workshops. In addition, the report is based on extensive analysis of secondary sources, and interviews with more than 30 experts from various (international) institutions to ensure that the report also reflects perspectives from outside GIZ.

The scenarios (strongly condensed for this post) are based on the four archetypes of the Manoa School of Futures Studies and Jim Dator, which represent four recurring paths of human civilization found in all cultures. Each scenario is supplemented by two to three short wildcards, some of which are listed here as examples.

Posted on: 18/03/2025

Last Edited: 16 days ago

Kai Kaasalainen1

CEO | Leadership | Strategy | Futurist | Foresight & Insight author | Researcher | Speaker | Ai | Health & Pharma |

Posted on: 16/03/2025

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Last Edited: 21 days ago

Emerging risks and opportunities for EU internal security stemming from new technologies

A technology foresight exercise to support EU policy development and Law Enforcement Agencies in the fields of Resilience of Critical Entities and Fighting Crime and Terr...

This report explores the transformative potential of Key Enabling Technologies in addressing
emerging security challenges within the European Union. By conducting foresight analysis, the report
evaluates technologies such as artificial intelligence, advanced sensing, blockchain, and drones,
highlighting their ability to enhance law enforcement and critical infrastructure resilience, and fighting
crime and terrorism, while exposing vulnerabilities, such as misuse by criminal actors or regulatory
gaps.
The findings emphasise the need for proactive EU policies to both support technology transformation
and mitigate risks, including strategic investments in secure innovation, legal harmonisation, and
addressing societal resilience. This report aligns with the Commission’s 2024–2029 priorities,
supporting a prosperous, secure, and resilient Europe through actionable insights into emerging
security challenges. The recommendations aim to foster effective public-private collaborations,
ensure regulatory coherence across Member States, and promote technological solutions that balance
security needs with ethical and societal values, reinforcing the EU’s position as a leader in sustainable,
innovation-driven policy-making in internal security. 

Posted on: 11/03/2025

Last Edited: 25 days ago

Oscar O'Mara1

Posted on: 08/03/2025

Last Edited: a month ago

ENRIC BAS1

Posted on: 06/03/2025

Last Edited: a month ago

Erica Bol1

Posted on: 06/03/2025

Last Edited: a month ago

Vision through consensus - The Delphi method for collective foresightFebruary 2025

Eye of Europe Foresight Starter Video #3

This video introduces viewers to the Delphi method, a tool of futures research and foresight. Although it gets its name from the ancient Greek oracle, the modern incarnations of the method are powered by technology. Even so, the difficulties of reaching consensus and the influence of group dynamics on rational argumentation remain. If you are participating in a Delphi process, this video is an essential introduction to the method.

This video is third part of a series of videos introducing foresight workshop methods for the Eye of Europe project funded by the EU.

Posted on: 05/03/2025

Last Edited: a month ago

Charlotte Freudenberg1

Posted on: 27/02/2025

Last Edited: a month ago

Megatrends 2040: Volatility, Uncertainty, Resourcefulness1

Megatrends 2040 was a project of Hellenic Republic-Presidency of the Government Special Secretariat of Foresight.

The secondary research conducted, initially revealed about twenty megatrends and trends, often cited in published academic papers, foresight books, reputable strategic studies, in the media, and especially in The Megatrends Hub of the JRC . Seven of these Megatrends, with a significant impact on the European and global economy, society and policies, have been selected.

Many of the megatrends presented here, are found in the European Commission’s Megatrends Hub or other sources of recognised standing in procedures of Horizon Scanning. In addition, the simple method of the Futures Wheel, which can be used by public institutions as a first step in understanding the interconnection of upcoming changes and challenges, is set out in Annex I (Glenn, 2009) . 

The analysis identified global challenges such as climate change, potential financial crises, pandemics and implications of exponential technological developments. These challenges (eg.Covid19) -often not directly dependent on the human factor- will bring about extensive pressure and significant impact on countries and societies. The effects of climate change and environmental degradation are likely to affect food and water availability for poor countries, intensify migration, cause new health challenges and contribute to biodiversity loss. New technologies will emerge and will spread faster, disrupting the economy, the labour market, society itself and the citizen’s position in it. The continuing effects of climate change exacerbate inequalities and intensify the phenomenon of climate migration globally, creating constantly new problems in both the countries of origin and of destination. The above challenges, if combined, will in turn affect other parameters, with implications that are extremely difficult to assess.

Posted on: 21/02/2025

Last Edited: a month ago

Airthings Scenarios 2040

NICOSIA, SKOPJE, SOFIA, THESSALONIKI, TIRANA

The study concerns the development of 4 Scenarios for 2040, for 5 Balkan cities: Thessaloniki, Nicosia, Skopje, Sofia, Tirana.

The research team identifies the factors that influence the development of these cities and highlights those that shape the urban future, identifying both the key challenges that cities will have to face and the forces they can proactively harness and build their desired future.

All scenarios present plausible future images of the above cities including references to their environmental status for 2040, as well as information on the specific air quality challenges.

The development of the scenarios took place in the framework of the European project AIRTHINGS (funded by the Interreg programme). It was implemented by a project team involving Helenos Consulting and the UNESCO Chair on Futures Research (ITE/PRAXI).

Posted on: 21/02/2025

Last Edited: a month ago

Erik Øverland1

Posted on: 20/02/2025

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Last Edited: a month ago

Backcasting the Future of Decentralized Education

a short movie made with AI tools

What if education wasn’t controlled by institutions but shaped by learners, communities, and technology? Using backcasting, I explored a future where learning is decentralized, open, and driven by collaboration—and mapped the steps to get there.

This vision is inspired by discussions between Sara Skvirsky (IFTF Research Director) and Katherine Prince (VP of Foresight & Strategy, KnowledgeWorks), as well as the 2020 Forecast: Creating the Future of Learning - a report that, even today, feels like a glimpse into what’s coming.

🔹 How do we get there?

- From institutional control to collective intelligence
- From passive learning to a culture of creation
- From centralized credentials to peer-validated knowledge
- From rigid curriculums to dynamic, adaptive education


🎥 Watch the short film exploring this future!

Posted on: 18/02/2025

Last Edited: a month ago

Johannes Kummerow1

Posted on: 18/02/2025

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Last Edited: 2 months ago

Exploring Futures: Scenario Planning in Collective Consciousness

Short movie made with AI Tools

This movie is a way of connecting three domains that bring me joy currently:
- Strategic Foresight
- Spirituality
- AI
One of the goals is to draw attention to Foresight as one of the Top 5 cutting-edge skills identified in the UN 2.0 agenda, a plan that helps organizations prepare for the future.

I adapted the Scenario Planning method to explore three possible futures and bring them to life through cinematic storytelling.
The film also introduces two trained characters, Lina and Arun, within each scenario, making the movie less formal and more engaging.

I also wanted to show how AI can:
- Serve as a bridge between ideas and skills from different fields.
- Help us discover new aspects of human potential.

This movie isn’t flawless or complete - I’m not a filmmaker, and that’s okay. Its beauty lies in its imperfection, reminding us that sometimes, taking the step to create is more important than getting it perfect. 

Later Edit: The film EXPLORING FUTURES: SCENARIO PLANNING IN COLLECTIVE CONSCIOUSNESS was included in the non-competition program of the International "Cartoons about the Future Festival," dedicated to films created with the help of AI. It was screened five times during the event, held on March 28-30, 2025, at the Atom Pavilion at VDNkH, Moscow. The festival, organized by the ATOM Foundation for the Promotion of Scientific, Educational, and Communication Initiatives in collaboration with the Big Cartoon Festival team, featured free screenings of short and full-length animated films over three days, offering audiences a diverse selection of forward-thinking works.

Posted on: 10/02/2025

Last Edited: 2 months ago

Jörn Geisselmann1

Posted on: 07/02/2025

Last Edited: 2 months ago

Peter Mathiasson1

Posted on: 06/02/2025

Last Edited: 2 months ago

Victor Rij1

Posted on: 01/02/2025

Last Edited: 2 months ago

Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca 1

Posted on: 29/01/2025

Last Edited: 2 months ago

Joe Ravetz1

Posted on: 27/01/2025

Last Edited: 2 months ago

Iuliana Adina Apostol1

What you seek is seeking you (Rumi)

Posted on: 26/01/2025

Last Edited: 2 months ago

Daniil Valéry Lang1

Posted on: 23/01/2025

Last Edited: 2 months ago

Amos Taylor1

Futures Researcher

Posted on: 23/01/2025

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Last Edited: 2 months ago

OECD Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy just released

A Comprehensive Foresight Methodology to Support Sustainable and Future-Ready Public Policy

OECD has released the Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy, designed to help policymakers anticipate and navigate future challenges and opportunities.

By exploring 25 potential disruptions across environmental, technological, economic, social, and geopolitical domains, the Toolkit equips governments with a practical, five-step foresight methodology to challenge assumptions, create scenarios, stress-test strategies, and develop future-ready policies. It includes facilitation guides, case studies, and actionable insights to support resilience in an uncertain world.

Posted on: 22/01/2025

Last Edited: 2 months ago

Foresight on the scientific, technological and societal conditions for the end of the COVID crisis

COVID-19 has led to a global public health crisis and changed the course of lives for billions with ensuing social and economic damage. A foresight study was commissioned by the European Commission DG RTD in June 2020 that used Dynamic Argumentative Delphi method to explore experts’ views on what Europe may look like in 2023, in the domains relating to medicine, public health, and socio-economic conditions. Using expert responses to the survey, the points of consensus and the areas of divergence (uncertainties) were analysed, and five plausible 'exit scenarios' were developed. The report draws conclusions for EU R&I policy, but together with its data annex, it can support strategic discussions across many different policy fields.

Link to the report: http://doi.org/10.2777/293413

Posted on: 17/01/2025

Last Edited: 3 months ago

Marlène de Saussure1

Posted on: 14/01/2025

Last Edited: 3 months ago

Futures Distillery1

The University of Turku’s Futures Knowledge Distillery is a research group that serves organisations whose goals are to develop their foresight skills and the ability to prepare for changes in the operating environment. Our service is based on the Finland Futures Research Centre’s 30 years of experience in future, combined with the expertise of eight faculties of scientific research at the University of Turku.

On this basis, we offer practical solutions for consciously making futures. Foresight can be seen as the most effective way to prepare for uncertainty, identify opportunities and create desirable futures.  

Posted on: 08/01/2025

Last Edited: 3 months ago

Strategic Foresight for Sustainability (SF4S) - Synthesis ReportOctober 2023

This is a synthesis report based on 130+ interviews conducted as part of the Strategic Foresight for Sustainability (SF4S). The synthesis report concludes the project’s Work Package 2, led by Finland Futures Research Centre, which had as a central objective to identify “key skills and good practices on the basis of interviews with the key community actors”.

Nine SF4S consortium partners – DKSD, EDC, EDHEC, FFRC, GEA, HMKW, ISPIM, IZT, and TalTech - carr ied out 91 interviews in situ or via digital communication channels from September 2022 to March 2023. In addition, 47 interviewees or discussants participated via focus group discussions (November 2022) and a public webinar (January 2023). 

The interviews map out sustainability, digitalisation, and foresight skills and practices in organisations around Europe with an emphasis on the project’s three target clusters: Agri-food, Health, and Mobility. In addition to industry representatives, experts in foresight, policy, consulting, and education have contributed their views to the project. 

For more information on the report, see the project website.   

Posted on: 07/01/2025

Last Edited: 3 months ago

Philipp Köbe1

Posted on: 03/01/2025

Last Edited: 3 months ago

Patricia Lustig1

Posted on: 03/01/2025

Last Edited: 3 months ago

Amos Taylor1

Posted on: 03/01/2025

Last Edited: 3 months ago

Tatjana Volkova1

The future is not some place we are going to, but one we are creating.

Posted on: 02/01/2025

Last Edited: 3 months ago

Antonio Furlanetto1

Posted on: 30/12/2024

Last Edited: 3 months ago

4CF The Futures Literacy Company1

4CF The Futures Literacy Company is a consultancy entirely focused on strategic foresight and long-term strategies. For nearly two decades, 4CF has been on the mission to help its clients prepare for an uncertain tomorrow. The Company has executed hundreds of projects for private companies, public institutions and international entities, including the European Commission and its agencies (EUDA, ENISA), FAO, UNFCCC, UNESCO, UNEP and UNDP. 4CF is at the forefront of global innovation, and actively contributes to the development of cutting-edge foresight tools, including 4CF HalnyX (Delphi platform), 4CF Sprawlr, 4CF FLEx.

Posted on: 17/12/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

EU Policy Lab1

The EU Policy Lab is a space for cross-disciplinary exploration and innovation in policymaking. We apply collaborative, systemic and forward-looking approaches to help bringing the scientific knowledge of the Joint Research Centre into EU policymaking.

We experiment with the new, the unprecedented and the unknown. We seek to augment our understanding of the present, challenge and reinvent the way we think about the future.

The EU Policy Lab is also a mindset and a way of working together that combines stories and data, anticipation and analysis, imagination and action. We bring new practical and radical perspectives to tackle complex problems in a collaborative way. Together, we explore, connect and ideate to create better policies.

The Competence Centre on Foresight is part of the EU Policy Lab and supports EU policy making by providing strategic and future-oriented input, developing an anticipatory culture inside the European Commission, and continuously experimenting and developing different methods and tools to make foresight useful for decision making processes. 

Posted on: 16/12/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Michael Dekner1

"I unite people, fueled by my passion for learning, innovation, and agile transformation, to create something new and extraordinary."

Posted on: 10/12/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)1

Foundation for Science and Technology

Posted on: 04/12/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Pier Francesco Moretti1

Corruptio optima pessima

Posted on: 04/12/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Helenos Consulting1

Empowering ecosystems and organizations with sustainable solutions for growth and resilience

Posted on: 29/11/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Stavros Mantzanakis1

Innovation Strategy, Foresight

Posted on: 29/11/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Fraunhofer ISI1

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI

Posted on: 20/11/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Jorg Körner1

Posted on: 18/11/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Lydia Caldana1

ALAF - Associação Latina de Futuros | Future Resources | Foresight, Urban Policy & Strategy

Posted on: 18/11/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Ulli Lorenz1

Posted on: 18/11/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Silvia Vicente-Oliva1

Posted on: 18/11/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Tanja Schindler1

Posted on: 18/11/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Mateus Panizzon, PhD.1

Theoretical dimensions for integrating research on anticipatory governance, scientific foresight and sustainable S&T public policy design. Avaliable at Technology in Society https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160791X24003063

Posted on: 18/11/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Rosa Berndt1

Posted on: 18/11/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Norbert Kołos1

Posted on: 18/11/2024

Last Edited: 4 months ago

Nicoletta Boldrini1

Posted on: 18/11/2024