The European Commission commissioned a foresight study to support reflections on the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and facilitate policy discussions on the possible medium-term impacts and related opportunities. The study used the Dynamic Argumentative Delphi method to explore experts’ views on specific statements about how Europe may look in 2023, in domains relating to medicine, public health, and socio-economic conditions. An analysis identified consensus views about the future (predictions that can be taken for granted) as well as divergence of views (where major uncertainties lie).

COVID-19 has led to a global public health crisis and changed the course of lives for billions with ensuing social and economic damage. A foresight study was commissioned by the European Commission DG RTD in June 2020 that used Dynamic Argumentative Delphi method to explore experts’ views on what Europe may look like in 2023, in the domains relating to medicine, public health, and socio-economic conditions. Using expert responses to the survey, the points of consensus and the areas of divergence (uncertainties) were analysed, and five plausible 'exit scenarios' were developed. The report draws conclusions for EU R&I policy, but together with its data annex, it can support strategic discussions across many different policy fields.

Link to the report: http://doi.org/10.2777/293413