This final report summarises the results of the actions to support the Mission Board for “Adaptation to Climate Change, including Societal Transformation” with forward-looking evidence.

In accordance with the Request, the proposed services, approaches to be adopted, and the concrete nature and form of the outputs have been shaped and validated through close interaction with the Mission Board (MB) via the Mission Secretariat, run by relevant European Commission (EC) services, throughout the implementation of the action.

As a result of the interactions with the Mission Secretariat, the following actions were taken:

1. Preparing a short paper Input to Mission Board on scoping activities & tasks
   (Deliverable 1)
2. Analysing national and regional funding programmes of selected countries for
   projects on Climate Change Adaptation, and conducting interviews with selected
   Mission Board members in preparation of a foresight workshop.
3. Preparing an input paper for the foresight workshop Input Document FoD CCA
   Workshop, 23 January 2020 (Deliverable 2).
4. Holding a foresight workshop (23 January 2020) with Mission Board members,
   European Commission representatives (Mission Secretariat), and foresight experts,
   and summarising the results of the workshop. The workshop served to identify
   barriers and solutions, enablers and impacts of climate change adaptation in a variety
   of thematic fields, including health, water, food and agriculture.
5. Developing and implementing a Delphi survey on assessing key aspects of the draft
   paper of the Mission Board. The survey addressed climate experts. They assessed
   future targets in thematic fields (e.g. financial risks, health, social infrastructure), and
   ranked related measures and R&I fields for importance.
6. Preparing and analysing the results of the Delphi survey: Delphi Survey results,
   July/August 2020 (Deliverables 3 and 4).

The report is structured along these deliverables.

The foresight project “Adaptation to Climate Change including Societal Transformation” (Framework Contract 2018/RTD/A2/OP/PP-07001-2018-LOT1) was meant to complement the Mission Boards’ deep and wide-ranging expertise by exploring longer-term time horizons, up to and beyond the year 2050. Building on existing future-oriented work, the project employed dedicated foresight methods, in particular workshops and a Delphi survey, to explore this time horizon in a systematic manner, and involving experts and stakeholders as appropriate.

Climate Adaptation refers to anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise. It has been shown that well-planned, early adaptation action later saves money, lives, livelihoods, and biodiversity.

The foresight was based on the European Commission (EC) White Paper “Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action” of 2009, and on the EU climate adaptation strategy adopted in 2013. At the time of the formulation of this strategy, the economic, environmental, and social costs of not adapting to climate change were estimated to range from 100 billion € a year in 2020 to 250 billion € a year in 2050, for the EU as a whole. Meanwhile, the EC in February 2021 elaborated and adopted a new climate adaptation strategy, which focuses on developing solutions and implementation of adaptation measures.

Research directions: Climate change adaptation (CCA) including societal transformation covers a broad range of areas, such as agriculture, dealing with water resources, disaster prevention, migration flows, security issues, behaviour changes, urban areas, industry and trade relations, transforming the energy system and transportation. The thematic scope of the foresight exercise was defined in close collaboration with the Mission Board (MB) through the Mission Board Secretariat. Consequently, the Delphi survey implemented in summer 2020 was used to assess elements of the interim MB report, in particular items around risk management, financial risk protection, social infrastructure, health, water, food/agriculture, and ecosystems. All the work fed into the final report of the Mission Board “A Climate Resilient Europe - Prepare Europe for climate disruptions and accelerate the transformation to a climate resilient and just Europe by 2030” (2020).

Charting Europe’s R&I Futures Pathways: Responsive Foresight for EU Policymaking in Uncertain Times
Foresight on Demand (FOD) addresses the growing need for quicker and more responsive foresight to inform policymaking in an increasingly turbulent environment. It complements strategic foresight by:
-) Raising and anticipating awareness of future developments, disruptive events, emerging technologies, and their potential broader socio-economic impacts.
-) Stimulating individuals, networks, and organizations to explore novel terrain, trigger “out-of-box” scenario development and foster innovative long-term thinking.
-) Supporting the preparedness and adaptability of long-term policy initiatives from a forward-looking perspective

Background
Already in 2016, the need for a rapid response foresight facility was identified by the SFRI expert group (Strategic Foresight for R&I Policy in Horizon 2020). They emphasized the importance of integrating foresight into European policymaking and complementing long-term strategic foresight with a rapid response mechanism. This would equip the European Commission with the necessary intelligence to swiftly address unexpected developments. In the context of R&I policy, greater flexibility in using foresight is essential to support various policy initiatives, from framework programmes to European partnerships. Higher and longer-term R&I ambitions, such as those in the context of missions, may require revisiting agendas, priorities, and plans in light of new scientific discoveries and socio-economic or geopolitical developments.
Building on the expertise and competence developed during FOD1 (2019-2023), FOD2 (2024-2028) will significantly expand the previous initiative, offering a more comprehensive and adaptable approach to address a broader range of challenges and opportunities.

Client Authorities
The demand for Foresight on Demand affects various European Commission services and other European institutions and agencies involved in policymaking at EU level. Foresight is increasingly important for implementing R&I policies, as large-scale initiatives and ambitious long-term projects require more than traditional strategic planning. They profit from a long-term view on emerging research opportunities and innovation needs. Joint Technology Initiatives and other European partnerships, which pursue long-term agendas, can build on foresight knowledge to anticipate and respond to emerging scientific, technological and socio-economic developments.
Several client authorities, including the European Commission (lead), EEA, ERCEA, FRA, ETF, EUROFUND, EFSA, EMCDDA, ECDC, EISMEA, EASA, OSHA, Global Health EDCTP3, and the Joint Undertakings EU-RAIL and CBE JU, have entered a single framework contract (FWC) for Foresight on Demand. While foresight processes are increasingly integrated into policymaking, the timing requirements for foresight intelligence and sense-making (e.g. signals of change in society, economy, science, and technology) often necessitate a quicker response than what usual foresight activities can provide. THE FOD framework provides the setting and conditions for this rapid foresight response mechanism.

FOD Consortium
The FOD consortium comprises fifteen core partners and five specialised partners, totalling twenty research and technology organisations experienced in foresight. Fourteen of the core partners were also involved in the first period of FOD (2019-2023), while seven new partners joined for the current FOD2 period (2024-2028). The new partners include 4CF The Foresight Company, DLR, TIS, EUNOMIA, RAND Europe, VTT, and Prognos, with 4CF and RAND Europe joining as core partners. The incumbent core partners are Arctik, Fraunhofer ISI, FFRC, IDEA Consult, Insight Foresight Institute, ISINNOVA, Institutul de Prospectiva, Technopolis, 4strat, Technology Centre Prague, Visionary Analytics, and ZSI Center for Social Innovation. The consortium is led by AIT Austrian Institute of Technology. 

Objectives
The framework contract is the basis for the Foresight on Demand (FOD) mechanism and aims at providing quick forward-looking inputs to policymaking by leveraging the best available foresight knowledge. FOD operates on a much shorter timescale complementarily to longer-term foresight activities but relies on extensive ongoing and accomplished foresight work. Access to a wide range of foresight sources and expertise is crucial for fulfilling FOD functions.
Policymakers increasingly face sudden and often surprising events that can quickly escalate secondary policy issues into disruptive ones requiring fast and effective responses. FOD foresight knowledge must be timely and efficient to support decisions related to urgent crises, emerging risks, and opportunities for addressing ongoing policy challenges. FOD aims to offer the broad range of client authorities timely and effective support in uncertain times, and provide forward-looking insights for policy design, planning, and implementation.
Foresight benefits policymaking in various ways, including for example by scanning the horizon for emerging developments and weak signals or by developing scenarios of alternative futures to better understand and to be better prepared for disruptive futures. The FOD service steps in where foresight activities have already been initiated or where there is a need to strengthen foresight capabilities, providing targeted foresight services that respond to emerging demands and potentially relevant developments.

“S&T&I for 2050” aims at broadening the focus of STI to encompass multiple conceptualisations of human-nature relations. To do this, a framework was constructed around the concept of ecosystem performance as driver of STI, instead of human performance. This places the attention on the flourishing of ecosystems that is deeply connected to human needs and wellbeing.

PRO-Ethics’ overall objective is to create a comprehensive, co-developed, tested and widely consulted Ethics Framework that enables a more effective handling of the ethical dimension of innovation, with a special focus on the engagement of citizens in participative innovation, to the benefit of more relevant, fair and effective innovation activities.
In order to reach this overall objective, PRO-Ethics has the following specific objectives:

• To gather and systematise needs, requirements and values of citizens (including the underlying ethical principles) within participatory processes to improve access and avoid a technological divide
• To create and promote fair and gender sensitive interaction modes taking into account legal frameworks, governance structures and regulations, codes of practice, and tools (including IT Tools)\
• To test, pilot and assess novel participation configurations in three fields of action of RFOs‘ activities: Participation in innovation projects, participation in strategy development and participation in evaluation processes
• To validate findings in interactive learning formats and in dialogue with stakeholders and ethic bodies
• To secure a widespread take-up of the developed framework across the European Union (and beyond) by consulting, sharing, and promoting standards, principles, and guidelines

Established by the European Commission, Foresight-on-Demand is a mechanism to respond to the demand for quick inputs to policy-making by drawing on the best available foresight knowledge.

FoD aims at offering the European Commission services with timely and effective support related to crisis situations, emerging risks, and policy challenges.