The European Topic Centre on Sustainability Transitions (ETC ST) is a consortium of twelve European organisations working in partnership with the European Environment Agency under a Framework Partnership Agreement for the period 2022-2026.

The ETC ST provides support to the European Environment Agency (EEA) regarding sustainability transitions. The ETC ST aims to deliver insights that contribute to understanding of sustainability transition challenges and opportunities. The aim is to enhance knowledge base to provide support to European Union policies.

The ETC ST contributes to the three following actions:

• Monitoring and assessing sustainability transitions in Europe through systemic lenses
• Analysing sustainability transitions enablers: economics, finance, innovation, policies, and governance across scales
• Developing co-created knowledge for action, including foresight, with stakeholders.

MATS aims to identify key leverage points for changes in agricultural trade policy that foster the positive and reduce the negative impacts of trade on sustainable development and human rights. Particular attention is paid to SDG1 No Poverty, SDG2 Zero Hunger and SDG3 Good Health and Well-being, as well as SDG6 Clean Water, SDG13 Climate Action and SDG15 Life on Land. Focus is on improving the governance, design and implementation of trade practices, regimes and policies at national, EU, African and global levels.

In implementation, MATS develops and pilots new tools for a systemic analysis, and assessment, of the interactions between agricultural trade, investments, sustainability and development.

In the fast-evolving landscape of Manufacturing-as-a-Service (MaaS), the EU faces the crucial challenge of navigating the uncertainties of emerging changes, disruptions, and opportunities in the sector. This uncertainty demands a strategic approach to guide decision-making in the European manufacturing industry up to 2040. In this context, the MASTT2040 project uses inclusive foresight methods to build a shared understanding, engage key stakeholders, and craft a strategic roadmap, addressing short, medium, and long-term goals. The project’s overall goal is to make MaaS a catalyst for circularity, embed sustainability in industrial approaches, enhance supply resilience, and propel Europe to the forefront of MaaS expertise.

Find more information here.
 

The overall objective of "3 InDustrial Ecosystems tAckLing supply chain dISrupTions and driving the adoption of advanced technologies" (IDEALIST) is to support SMEs in energy-intensive industries, aerospace and defence, mobility, transport & automotive industrial ecosystems in their ability to understand and adapt to changes brought about by rapid and unexpected developments in the world such as the COVID-19 crisis or the Russia-led war in Ukraine.

These three sectors are of capital importance for the European economy and despite their specificity, have common challenges that the project helps address: transition to more sustainable practices, competitiveness issues in a context of scarcer raw materials and more expensive energy, change in consumption habits and more. Being more resilient means giving SMEs the opportunity to be a player in these changes and no longer just a spectator or follower. To do this, the project evolves around three pillars: strategic foresight to establish relevant tools and behaviors to anticipate and better prepare for change in an orderly and systematic way; technology uptake to overcome obstacles related to the implementation work of Advanced Technologies and lay the foundations of alliances between tech-savvy and traditional SMEs; and supply chains to identify critical dependencies and weaknesses in order to limit the impacts of disruptions on value chains. This work will lead to the realization of Pilot Projects promoting the meeting between ecosystems, facilitated by the use of the Hack&Match method. The mobilization of the AGORA platform led by EIT Manufacturing will support this objective of matchmaking and community building. The project is carried by a relevant consortium of 14 partners from 6 European countries and Ukraine representing several thousand manufacturing companies.

Find more information here.
 

Millions of travellers cross the EU’s external borders every year and their numbers will likely increase even further. Thus, border checks will need to undergo significant transformations in the coming years, both to effectively safeguard the EU’s external borders and to improve the border crossing experience for travellers. Biometrics is one of the fields expected to significantly contribute to the attainment of these goals.

In light of the above, Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency delivered a Technology Foresight Research Study on Biometrics for the Future of Travel. The main objective of this research was the delivery of a study on the future of biometrics for its implementation in border control systems that may benefit the work of the European Border and Coast Guard (EBCG) community in a short (1-5 years), medium (5-10 years) and long term (10+ years) perspective. In particular, this research was to produce a research study that includes the prioritization and roadmapping of emerging relevant biometric technologies with the strongest potential to influence the strategic components of Integrated Border Management and the work of Border Guards themselves. The research study also produced comprehensive tailored technology foresight methodology and supporting tools, properly adapted to Frontex capabilities and organization. Furthermore, it delivered a technology taxonomy for biometrics and biometrics-enabled technological systems.


The obtained findings were to support Frontex in identifying specific research and innovation initiatives which could accelerate the integration of novel biometrics-enabled technological solutions for border checks. This study provides knowledge on how to maximize future benefits of biometrics technology in the border management environment while minimizing its risks and ensuring full compliance with the existing legal, ethical and technological constraints.

The research study consisted of five phases, which all produced their own set of insights intended to support the EBCG community in decision-making processes, compiled in the main report available here . 

The chemical industry is a significant contributor to the EU economy. It is simultaneously instrumental to the green and digital transition and exposed to its effects. A steady supply of (green) create reusable and recyclable consumer goods. On the other hand, chemical synthesis is an energy-intensive process inherently dependent on carbon-based feedstock (currently derived almost exclusively from fossil fuels). In addition, chemistry is a global industry with international value chains, where the EU both collaborates and competes with other countries for materials, knowledge and skills.

Transforming the European chemical industry into a sustainable motor for the green and digital transition will require investments in infrastructure, assets and skills. Focus should be placed on chemicals that are crucial to this Twin Transition, , or both. The long lead time required for the deployment of infrastructure and the development of skills means that such investments must be made now to achieve targets set for 2050.

In connection with these issues, the report at hand aims to give insights into a number of value chains that are strategic to EU economy. It considers which chemicals and innovations are vital to transforming these value chains as well as rendering them more resilient and future-fit. To this end, a participatory workshop-based foresight approach was implemented to provide a unique set of insights from stakeholders and translate them into actions and policy recommendations.
Chapter 1 provides a general introduction into foresight and an overview of the project, the definitions used, the methodology applied and the approach to project implementation.

Chapter 2 details the 20 Critical Chemicals and 10 key Future Innovations, needed to secure the four Strategic Value Chains under consideration: Batteries, Connected Clean & Autonomous Vehicles, Hydrogen Technologies & Systems, and Microelectronics & Industrial IoT. These value chains were selected as highly dependent on chemicals and non-overlapping with other EC research initiatives. Those Critical Chemicals and Future Innovations are listed in the tables below.

Chapter 3 presents In addition, each so-called factsheet contains roadmaps of actions needed to increase those value chains resilience as well as describes chemicals and the implementation of innovations. Thus, the roadmaps enable the identification and assessment of potential future actions.

Chapter 4 contains a set of key policy recommendations addressed to policy stakeholders. They focus on accelerating the digital and green transformation of the entire chemical industry, and were collected from experts throughout the project.

Finally, the Annex details methodologies and underlying analyses.

Chem4EU Foresight for chemicals : final report 

Humans establish highly diverse and situated relationships with nature. Over generations, these human-nature relations transform dynamically. In doing so, future imaginaries, expectations and visions accompany our commitment to, action in and representation of nature. Genres such as climate fiction and practices such as ocean clean-ups provide insights into (re-)emerging social, cultural and emotional connections between people and nature.

Future Lives with Oceans and Waters (FLOW) looks forward and explores changing human-nature relationships in the context of aquatic ecosystems. The transdisciplinary project brings together foresight, research on socio-ecological interactions, marine science and natural resource management with young people from across Europe. FLOW aims to create new knowledge and connections to reinforce a new perception of the importance of aquatic ecosystems in the Anthropocene. To do so, the project combines horizon scanning, ethnographic fieldwork, experiential futures workshops and co-creation in an innovative way. As a Research and Innovation Action, FLOW supports the Restore Our Oceans Mission of the EU.

Human performance has long been a dominant pursuit and driver of progress in science, technology and innovation (STI). As notions of performance are still guiding STI research, discussions on its nature are relevant and shape STI directions. Human needs and performance are inextricably linked to challenges related to the health of the planet. Considering that, a debate is warranted to shift the attention from human performance to a more inclusive performance of flourishing ecosystems.
In this context, the vision of the project “S&T&I FOR 2050. Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions” was driven by the desire for STI efforts to place ecosystem performance on par with human performance. This broadens the focus of STI to encompass multiple conceptualisations of human-nature relations and to contribute to sustainability transitions.

The project’s overarching goal was to identify and map future scientific and technological developments, which can radically improve ecosystem performance. In doing so, it provided reflections on the 2nd strategic plan of Horizon Europe (HE), in its broad direction to support the Sustainable Development Goals.

The study was conducted along several phases:

• Based on literature review, the project team developed three perspectives on future relations between humans and nature and humans’ role in the flourishing of planetary ecosystems. The three perspectives are: i) protecting and restoring ecosystems, ii) co-shaping socio-ecological systems, and iii) caring within hybrid collectives
• A two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) online survey explored the most dynamic scientific and technological developments. The survey engaged over 600 experts globally in enriching, assessing and prioritizing STI directions in terms of their potential to contribute to the capability of planetary ecosystems to flourish from now to 2050.
• Drawing in on the three perspectives and the results of the DAD survey, six case studies on core sustainability issues explored the three perspectives. Reflections on implications for R&I policies in the context of the European Green Deal conclude each of the six case studies: i) Law for Nature; ii) Land Use Futures; iii) Soil to Soul; iv) Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy; v) Ecosystems and Micro-and Nano Cosmos; vi) Data as Representation

This project aimed to provide the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) and its partners with future-oriented assets and skills to better prepare for and fulfil their mission within a dynamic and rapidly changing world. Through this project’s multiple phases and scientifically led by the Fraunhofer ISI, teams consisting of mainly asylum and migration experts from the EUAA, asylum authorities of several EU+ countries, the European Commission (DG HOME, Joint Research Centre), Frontex, Europol, UNHCR and ICMPD created a set of coherent future scenarios – narratives that enable policy and decision makers to better perceive and respond to the complexity and uncertainty of possible futures.

The scenario development process began with the identification of a number of factors that were both external to the EU+ countries and driving change in international protection. Over the course of three workshops, EUAA experts together with representatives of national asylum authorities and partner EU institutions assessed the boundaries of each factor’s possible development in the future and constructed several constellations of these fundamental factors. Such constellations of the fundamental factors were further refined and turned into four unique and viable future scenarios.

Finally, a Delphi survey gathered quantitative and qualitative expert feedback on the likelihood and time-scale for critical aspects of each scenario.

In addition to the process benefits for the people involved, the following results are now publicly available in the reports:

Overview of critical influencing factors and possible development paths;
Four scenario narratives outlining the option space for the next ten years;
Persona descriptions supporting the immersion in the respective scenario;
Results of a Delphi survey on critical aspects of the four scenarios;
Compilation of wildcards and their significance in the context of the scenarios; and
Critical challenges for actors in the context of international protection for individual scenarios and across all scenarios

The vision of FOSTER is to build a foundation from which a new Knowledge and Innovation System (KIS) for Europe’s food system can emerge. The current structure is insufficient to address the emerging challenges of nourishing people in a healthy and sustainable way. Key objective is to gain insights into how it can be built to be more inclusive and better governed. 

FOSTER shall help to transform Europe’s food system outcomes and will achieve this by: 

• building a FOSTER Platform including food system-state of the art knowledge, foresight by semi-automated Horizon scanning, trend and threats-analysis and new multi-dimensional scenarios of EU food systems to 2040; 
• implementing the FOSTER Academy – including four Summer Schools – for integrating food system-related disciplines and citizen science to enhance food system understanding across the ERA; 
• initiating and assessing a co-creation and co-learning process within six national resp. regional Citizen Driven Initiatives (CDIs), in which new knowledge, strategies and Action Research Agendas are gained; 
• scaling out and deep CDIs solutions and approaches to other territorial contexts; 
• studying different R&I mechanisms of policy support for mission-oriented R&I policy for food systems transformation, and analysing and ground-proofing them in each CDI; 
• strengthening science-policy interfaces by co-learning processes with external experts and developing recommendations for food systems R&I policies tailored to different geographies and sectors; 
• identifying the trigger points to help ‘unlock’ system lock-ins and support further dynamics towards system transformation; 
• and applying reflective monitoring on all FOSTER’s co-learning activities to develop insights into how the KIS can be broadened from an agricultural-KIS to a food system-KIS.
  

To inspire adoption of FOSTER learnings, over 20 workshops and a final conference will be conducted; scientific position papers and policy briefs will be widely communicated. 

The general objective of the project was of strengthening the anticipatory capacity for the development of evidence-based public policies in the field of Research, development and Innovation (RDI) in Romania.

A considerable part of the project consisted in the elaboration of the National Strategy for Research, Innovation and Smart Specialization 2022-2027 and the key implementation instrument, namely The National Plan for Research, Development and Innovation 2022-2027.

The foresight components of the project included:

- A Vision building process for setting the sistemic transformations by 2030

- The foresight based entrepreneurial discovery process for selecting national smart specializations

- The priority setting for the National Research Agenda, which is focused on societal challanges.

The foresight results have been integrated in the final documents (e.g. national strategy and plan) and adopted by Governmental decision.

We’re pioneering the European Health Data Space by building the first Regional Smart Health Data Space.

On an Ambitious Mission
We embarked on an ambitious mission to reshape the smart healthcare landscape and accelerate innovation within four Widening countries – Bulgaria, Romania, Cyprus, and Greece.

Our overarching objective is to foster an environment where smart health innovations thrive, creating excellent innovation ecosystems within the participating widening countries, while having the support of three developed countries – Sweden, Germany, and Spain.

Aligned with the Regional Research and Innovation Strategies for Smart Specialisation (RIS3) in healthcare, we aim to leverage cutting-edge technologies such as Big Data, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the Internet of Things (IoT) to enable personalized medicine, informed decision-making, and enhanced disease prediction.

Beacons of Innovation
We will create the first Regional Smart Health Data Space (RSHDS). This marks a significant milestone on our journey towards a unified European Health Data Space (EHDS).

We will showcase the capabilities of the RSHDS through the implementation of four interconnected pilots, each addressing critical healthcare challenges:

• Cancer treatment (Greece)
• Alzheimer (Bulgaria)
• Cerebral tumours (Romania)
• Dementia (Cyprus)

Within this project, UEFISCDI is leading, among other activities, Task 6.3 - Long term common R&I and investment strategic agenda and action plan. The task will develop a joint R&I strategic agenda aligned with regional/national Smart Specialization Strategies, with local and European regulations concerning data governance and data sharing, as well as with the European Policy priority of Data Driven Digital Transition and Smart Health.

For this, it will use foresight-based methodologies such as backcasting, visioning, foresight expert workshops and other. 

The VERA project aimed to provide relevant strategic intelligence for the future governance and priority-setting of the research, technology, development and innovation (RTDI) system in Europe and for better adapting science, technology and innovation policy to the shifting global environment and upcoming socio-economic challenges. For this purpose VERA carried out an in-depth stocktaking of RTDI related forward looking activities in Europe and internationally and a thorough review of trends and drivers of long-term change of European RTDI governance. On the base of these insights VERA developed scenarios on the evolution of the European Research Area, assessed the critical issues for the ERA’s future capabilities emerging from these scenarios, explored subsequent strategic options and ultimately generated a set of policy recommendations for responsive and future oriented multi-level, multi-domain RTDI policy strategies.

VERA was conceptualised as a continuously progressing two-way communication process among ERA actor groups from society, industry, academia and policy across domains, levels and regions. It consisted of setting up a strategic conversation between these stakeholders that evolved through several carefully tailored stages in order to jointly discover shared visions and strategic options around the ERA’s future perspectives towards 2020 and far beyond. VERA has explored the gradual evolution following from current patterns of change – but has also explicitly embraced transformative and disruptive developments with a long-term horizon.

The VERA project was proposed by a consortium of ten internationally renowned institutes from 9 EU countries involving a team of more than 20 researchers with outstanding expertise both in terms of relevant knowledge and forward looking methodology and excellent contacts with RTDI stakeholders in Europe and the world.

RIFI objectives are: 

• to create a methodology for evaluation of the socio-economic impact of investments in RIs, 
• to test and improve the elaborated methodology based on its application to several case studies in Romania and Bulgaria (at all the three levels of investment: pan European, regional and national), 
• to complement the methodology through integrating foresight, and to elaborate on the role of foresight for identifying RI investment opportunities. 

The RIFI methodological tool is especially important for the new EU member states, the remote islands of EU, and other countries with similar profiles with Romania and Bulgaria (e.g. from the Black Sea Region). The methodology will be a powerfull decision tool both for developing and adjusting the European policies related to RIs, and for pre-assement of certain RI investments.

Doiran ecosystem as a part of Natura 2000 (GR 123 0003) protected areas is located in the border between Greece and the Republic of North Macedonia, and constitutes a rich and invaluable area for the wetland in terms of natural beauty and developmental perspective.

Local and peripheral organizations have been closely working together for years as the lake requires close and structured collaboration in order to effectively face and address common problems and challenges such as:

Taking measures for the vital protection of the ecosystem
The lack of a strategic plan and stable mechanism for managing the ecosystem has caused serious problems as:
a) physical and chemical water elements are only periodically checked by third parties

b) Risk management is not organized and proactive process

c) The collaboration between the two countries becomes difficult and ineffective.

Taking measures for the compliance of Greece and the Republic of North Macedonia to the European law in order to conform to the conditions and entry processes to the EU.
The co-management of the lake so far is based in incomplete and nonrecurring actions
The protection and management plan of the lake should be based on mutual values and principles adopted by local associations
There is no technical infrastructure for the protection, management, and development of the ecosystem
The exploitation of natural resources can contribute to a great extent to the local development attracting more visitors and enhancing agricultural (traditional products) and cultural inheritance.

The main objectives are related to:
a) The organizations-associations- comprising the most important statutory parties in the implementation of environmental protection strategies and biodiversity as well as sustainable development;

b)A new, mutual and organized framework, structures and infrastructures defining stable collaboration principles to enhance environmental and socioeconomic competitiveness in the specific area.

c)Short-term and long-term benefits of the projects for the residents.

d) Development of an entrepreneurial mentality towards sustainable activities supporting an eco-friendly culture, exploiting the natural resources and the opportunities that the area offers.

e) Raising awareness in environmental issues and encourangement of a more responsible future generation.

Dragon-STAR was built upon the work performed by two previous FP7 INCO projects (BILAT-SILK and ACCESSChina4EU), aiming to support the Sino-European collaboration in four levels, namely:
• Enhancing the quality of the Chinese participation in the European Framework Programs.
• Supporting the reciprocity originating from the signed EU-China Scientific Cooperation Agreement and the other bilateral initiatives.
• Supporting the bilateral cooperation in the broader field of innovation and especially technological cooperation between industrial players.
• Supporting the ongoing bilateral Scientific Cooperation dialogue and the other related initiatives.
The planned work was focused on addressing the four main project objectives and several positive outputs produced within the project’s lifetime. However, more important is the fact that DRAGON-STAR managed to establish stable collaborations with all the major stakeholders in Europe and China. There is an established collaboration with other EU funded projects, while joint events have been organized with the EU Delegation in China, DG Research, DG Agriculture, and EURAXESS Links China.
During the 36 months of the Dragon-Star life, the project team worked and succeeded for establishing a cooperation platform between European and Chinese stakeholders towards enhancing the bilateral cooperation in research and innovation.
The project has established a sound cooperation with the permanent EU representation in Beijing and worked together for implementing various activities. Similar cooperation has been established with the EC, Member States, Chinese Organizations and Innovation Agencies.
A flagship activity was the organization of a considerable number of promotional activities for H2020, and the establishment of a help-desk (CECO) and the implementation of a national network of Regional Contact Points in China, for promoting the program. At the same time, a database with funding opportunities for European researchers is constantly updated providing support to the Europeans interest in China.
Moreover, addressing the need to understand the rapid changes in the Chinese research and innovation landscape and draft a suitable cooperation strategy, DRAGON-STAR performed a foresight scenario study, revealing, four plausible scenarios for the future of the Chinese research & innovation landscape.

The shift in China’s strategy focusing towards R&I and transforming the essence of its economy has been complimented with massive public investments in research and technology. In order to tackle critical global issues demanding close scientific and technological cooperation at an international level, EU has identified in China a natural partner able to contribute and complement its own capacity. Beginning of 2015, major European and Chinese Research & Academic organisations, Innovation intermediaries, Public Authorities, Funding agencies and SMEs have teamed up to provide an answer to this necessity and foster EU-China cooperation in the large spectrum of S&T RDI topics.

FUTURESILIENCE

• Mapped existing policy relevant European R&I findings with high potential to inform policy making for economic and social resilience, and to help address societal challenges and integrated them into a knowledge base.
• Set up a toolbox and guideline for a scenario proccess that helps to stress test the usefulness of these policy solutions for a specific context and challenge 
• Implemented 10 pilot cases called 'Future Resilience Labs ' that conduct this participative scenario process with multiple stakeholders to develop tailored strategies for their local context and challenges. Lab topics range from climate change related natural disasters via migration and integration, housing and spatial mobility issues to cybersecurity threats, labor skill shortages and health system challenges.

Based on the Lab results and process experiences the project will generate a Knowledge Base of the successfully tested research findings with high capacity to inform policy actors and a Toolbox of methods for testing policy relevant research findings with participatory Foresight approaches at the center.

This project receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101094455. 

PRO-Ethics’ overall objective is to create a comprehensive, co-developed, tested and widely consulted Ethics Framework that enables a more effective handling of the ethical dimension of innovation, with a special focus on the engagement of citizens in participative innovation, to the benefit of more relevant, fair and effective innovation activities.
In order to reach this overall objective, PRO-Ethics has the following specific objectives:

• To gather and systematise needs, requirements and values of citizens (including the underlying ethical principles) within participatory processes to improve access and avoid a technological divide
• To create and promote fair and gender sensitive interaction modes taking into account legal frameworks, governance structures and regulations, codes of practice, and tools (including IT Tools)\
• To test, pilot and assess novel participation configurations in three fields of action of RFOs‘ activities: Participation in innovation projects, participation in strategy development and participation in evaluation processes
• To validate findings in interactive learning formats and in dialogue with stakeholders and ethic bodies
• To secure a widespread take-up of the developed framework across the European Union (and beyond) by consulting, sharing, and promoting standards, principles, and guidelines

The CROSSEU project was launched in response to growing societal needs for effective climate action and stronger socio-economic resilience. As climate change continues to impact our world, it becomes crucial to understand and manage its complex effects. 

Objective(s)
CROSSEU aims to respond to increasing societal needs to reduce climate-damaging actions, adapt to the expected consequences, and increase socio-economic resilience.

The main ambition of the project is to provide a science based and ready to use decision support system built on enhanced understanding of the biogeophysical risks from climate change, and their socioeconomic impacts in Europe, fully co-produced and implemented with practice stakeholders to ensure its uptake, and support effective coping with sectoral and cross sectoral climate risks within the context of the European green transition.

It will do this by delivering a climate-sensitive framework, including a ready-to-use decision support system platform and technical recommendations, to inform investment decisions, cost-effective adaptation and mitigation options and policy response to climate change.

The project will contribute to advancing the understanding of the socio-economic risks and response options associated with climate change impact in Europe in different timeframes, including the post-COVID-19 societal-environmental transformation, and derive practical recommendations for political and societal action.

The solutions proposed are based on an extensive assessment of the socio-economic risks of climate change in a cross-sectoral hierarchical approach, based on storylines addressing key categories of climate hazards in different socio-economic sectors and climate change-sensitive areas across countries and European regions.

The project will offer a ready-to-use solution that integrates complex information from available climate risk data sets and non-climatic sectoral data collected during the project implementation and derived through modelling based on demand-driven climate-socio-economic pathways.

CROSSEU is designed to bridge the science-based information about the economic impacts of climate change, and the unique contributions of the project will be:

1. the quantification of costs of existent and emergent socio-economic risks and opportunities at NUTS3 level
2. an improved representation of adaptation within biogeophysical climate change risk
3. a better consideration of modelling uncertainties by identifying their nature, assessing their characteristics in
a systematic way to determine a better informed and robust decision-making. 

The project's foresight component is crucial for projecting how various climate impacts will unfold under different global pathways (RCP-SSP). By examining future scenarios, it allows decision-makers to anticipate and plan for the most critical challenges, helping societies prepare for the compounded effects of climate change across sectors. The focus on cross-sectoral linkages emphasizes the need for integrated, multi-dimensional strategies to address both immediate and long-term climate risks, while ensuring social equity and resilience.
Future scenarios involve identifying and evaluating highly vulnerable areas across Europe in terms of their exposure to climate change, sensitivity to its impacts, and adaptive capacity. It focuses on key sectors—such as biodiversity, health, agriculture, forests, and water—and examines how these areas are likely to experience intense climate changes, particularly extreme events, in the future (2030, 2050, 2100).

Outputs

• Enhance the modelling of mitigation and adaptation strategies in relation to projected bio-geo-physical processes and socioeconomic risks to different sectors for different time horizons (i.e. 2030, 2050 and 2100) considering both the individual characteristics and interactions between the various sectors
• Co-assess synergies conflicts and trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation strategies across different sectors regions
• Co-produce ready to use tools integrated in a science based decision support system for assessing the social and economic impacts of climate change, and support mitigation and adaptation options towards a climate resilient Europe
• Consolidate the European union's response to climate change challenges and social and economic impacts in the context of the transformation related to the post COVID-19 crisis and geopolitical challenges

Expected outcomes
1. the project delivers a science based and ready to use decision support system built on enhanced understanding of the biogeophysical risks from climate change, and their socioeconomic impacts in Europe, fully co-produced and implemented with practice stakeholders to ensure its uptake.
2. the project consistently contributes to enhancing the overall impact of the destination climate across the EU
3. the project facilitates an improved understanding of the nature and extent of physical risks climate change driven hazards and their socio economic impacts at different levels of warming with or without adaptation
4. CrossEU integrates social sciences and humanities perspectives and insights throughout its entire workflow, engaging stakeholders including representatives of communities or citizen groups, sectoral policymakers, businesses, the scientific community, and civil society, through the entire project cycle.

CROSSEU is an EU funded project, with UK partners funded by UKRI.

The foresight exercise by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) from 2022 listed 46 emerging and disruptive technologies relevant for space, defence, and related civil industries, which are of strategic importance for the European Union (EU). Throughout the process, participants focused on four future critical technologies that deserve particular attention: (i) quantum communications and cryptography; (ii) space platform; (iii) integrated photonics; and (iv) nuclear micro-reactors. These future critical technologies bear a high level of impact and a high probability of future EU dependency on others. For each one, the report includes a series of recommendations to address risks, challenges and future dependencies. 

Beyond the listing and analysis of key technologies, the authors summarised 10 clusters of topics related to technology development and adoption: (i) geopolitics; (ii) cooperation; (iii) investment; (iv) market; (v) skills and knowledge; (vi) ethical issues; (vii) regulations and standards; (viii) development of technology building blocks; (ix) twin transition and security of assets; and (x) data and communications.These insights can support further research and policy developments. The report concludes with a detailed explanation of the methodology applied and the results of intermediary phases.

The FUTURINNOV project run by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches. This is done through activities to identify funding priorities, inform programme design, contribute to policy feedback, and develop institutional governance. 

The main objectives are to:
• Provide short and medium-term future-oriented evidence-based advice on signals and trends of emerging technologies, breakthrough innovation, and investment patterns;
• Support the development of long-term EIC strategic intelligence, grounded in anticipatory, collective, and hybrid methods, towards knowledge transfer and capacity building; and
• Explore innovative anticipatory thinking and future-oriented methodologies to support EIC in its mission as a funding body and a knowledge- provider for policy design and implementation.
The project started in the beginning of the 2024 and will run until February 2025. Outputs of the FUTURINNOV project will include three literature reviews identifying and analysing signals of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations as well as findings from horizon scanning workshops.

Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1

The report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making. The literature review

(1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies,
(2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report,
(3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies
(4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe 

Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights(5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting.  

Read some insights from the authors on the blog. 

Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 2

The second volume of the literature review with 30 selected signals and trends that were considered particularly relevant to the 10 critical technology areas identified by the Commission. Some examples are:
• Neuromorphic chip optimised for energy efficient AI workloads
• Laser-equipped satellites for secure quantum communications
• Possibilities of microgravity bioreactors and 3D bioprinting for regenerative medicine
• Self-consuming rockets to reduce space debris and improve efficiency
• Potential to capture wasted 'reflected' energy from PV systems
• Preparation–free, adhesive skin patches to help people control robotic exoskeletons.

(Dis)Entangling the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects.
These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics:
•quantum computers
•quantum sensing
•quantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics models
•materials for quantum
•Artificial Intelligence for quantum
•error correction; solid-state scalability
•quantum for Artificial Intelligence
•quantum as a service – metacloud

Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility.

Materialising the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of advance materials for energy

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise on emerging technologies in advanced materials for energy. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics: 

• accelerated material design/synthesis
• biomaterials as part of the circular economy
• advanced materials allowing new applications
• closed loop battery recycling
• innovations in catalysis
• organic batteries for sustainable energy storage
• design to performance bat-teries
• design to cost batteries
• electrochemical water treatment

Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novelty and disruptive potential such as: circularity of materials (safe and sustainable by design); membranes / separators; process optimisation; 3D printing of electrode materials for energy and environmental engineering applications; and use of AI for the study of materials.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: governance and compliance frameworks; funding; collaboration and knowledge exchange; sustainable and efficient development; infrastructure and technological advancement and limita-tions; industry and market dynamics and constraints; innovation and risk management; supply chain and raw materials; and talent development.

Imagine the future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations
in the field of medical imaging and AI

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under
the FUTURINNOV project. The workshop, held on 17 September 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology
readiness levels (TRLs), within the EIC's Medical Imaging and AI portfolio.
Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of pa-
tents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance
to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of eight key
topics: 

• generative AI for healthcare
• digital twins
• multimodal data analysis
• explainable AI in medical imaging
• application of AI to specific diseases/conditions
• XR - augmented and virtual realities
• tensor-valued diffusion encoding
• AI-generated synthetic data for training AI

Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novelty and disruptive potential such as: blockchain, edge computing and differential privacy for secure, AI-driven medical imaging and collaborative healthcare
optimisation and quantum medical imaging.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and pro-
motion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: Tech-
nological advancements and cross-sector applications; data infrastructure, AI models, and regulatory
frameworks; workforce, education and societal factors; clinical efficiency and patient outcomes; trust,
ethics, and AI adoption; financial pressures and industry investment in AI healthcare.

The context

Technological breakthroughs empowered by enabling technologies hold a transformation potential that can be funneled to address industrial and societal grand challenges, like greening and digitalisation. To exploit this transformative potential, the innovation journey that leads new emerging technologies to their market-uptake shall embed value-sensitive considerations, such as environmental and societal implications.

The FORGING Solution

FORGING proposes a new methodology that breaks linear innovation trajectories to stimulate new technological visions and pathways attentive to the environment and society, and human-centred in alignment with Industry 5.0. technological frameworks. FORGING will create enabling frameworks to accelerate the pick-up of novel and responsible enabling technologies: through the development of 6 Technological Pathways, emerging enabling technologies will be positioned at their maturity levels and their deployment and industry absorption will be promoted for positive societal impact.

Decision makers are faced with a world characterised by increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. These conditions make it more difficult to assess risks when making strategic decisions or planning for the long-term. This project from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) EU Policy Lab starting 2023 presents a foresight approach to increase preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create.

Foresight methods offer a way to consider and focus on risks that may be beyond the scope of traditional quantitative and qualitative risk assessment approaches. Several snapshots of the future depict different worlds that have undergone substantial changes as a consequence of emerging developments. An analysis of the risks inherent in the possible futures identified ten risk clusters that are relevant for decision makers, and mapped future developments that might lead to them.The same development pathways that could lead to risks can also create opportunities, and the study provides some examples. Decision makers face the challenge of mitigating the adverse effects of risks, while reaping the benefits of potential opportunities. This study also presents the results of a Delphi survey that evaluated the scope and severity of risks. Three of the 40 risks identified in this study were assessed to be potentially existential for humanity: 1) environmental degradation, 2) environmental disasters, and 3) loss of power by humans. The project started in 2023 and will run until 2024. Next in the development is an engagement tool for policymakers to push the boundaries of foresight on risks in their specific policy making domain. Stay tuned for its launch, later in autumn 2024! 

Download the Risks on the horizon report  

Read the blog post from the authors  

This project aims at:

i) providing timely foresight intelligence and forward-looking policy briefs to the European Commission for purposes of R&I policy on the following topics:

• Futures of interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities 
• Futures of Science for Policy in Europe 
• Futures of using nature in rural and marine contexts in Europe
• Futures of Social Confrontations
• Futures of Green Skills and Jobs
• Futures of Big Tech
• Futures of innovation and IP regulation

ii) providing a hub for Europe’s R&I foresight community and a space in which foresight agencies and researchers can share knowledge and tools;

iii) networking EU supported R&I projects with important foresight elements and promoting their results to policymakers, including via Horizon Futures Watch quarterly newsletters;

iv) promoting broad public engagement with foresight for R&I policy, including stakeholders as well as the public and covering all sections of society, from scientists and engineers to policy-makers, artists, intellectuals and engaged citizens.

SF4S is a collaborative action with partners from Higher Education institutions (HEIs), Vocational Education and Training (VET) providers, innovation networks and business entities from the Agri-food, Health and the Mobility sectors.

Carried out between July 2022 - June 2025, SF4S supports our transition to a more sustainable European economy by helping to address the lack of green, digital and future (i.e. sustainability foresight) skills among students and professionals and by connecting knowledge flows between HEI, VET and industry actors that are necessary for Europe to develop cooperative solutions on a large-scale and support the recommendations for action in the major reports and initiatives: Green Deal, NextGenerationEU, European Skills Agenda and OECD Future of Education and Skills 2030.

European mountain areas play a central role in the well-being of many highly populated European regions. The big question is how these mountain areas are being impacted by climate change. 

The EU-funded MOVING project will build capacities and co-develop policy frameworks across Europe. It will establish new or upscaled value chains to boost resilience and sustainability of mountain areas. The first step will be to screen traditional and emerging value chains in all European mountain areas. The next step will involve in-depth assessment of vulnerability and resilience of land use, production systems and value chains in 23 mountain regions. The project will use a virtual research environment to promote online interactions amongst actors and new tools to ensure information is accessible by different audiences.

S+T+ARTS is an initiative of the European Commission, launched under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme to support collaborations between artists, scientists, engineers and researchers.

MISSION
Science, technology and arts (STARTS for short) limn a nexus at which insightful observers have identified extraordinarily high potential for innovation. And innovation is precisely what’s called for if we’re to master the social, ecological and economic challenges that Europe will be facing in the near future. With the S+T+ARTS initiative, the European Commission’s focus is on projects and people that have the potential to make meaningful contributions to this effort.

VISION
S+T+ARTS is driven by the conviction that science and technology combined with an artistic viewpoint also open valuable perspectives for research and business, through a holistic and human-centered approach.

STRATEGY
S+T+ARTS is sustained by the STARTS Pillars that represent all the dimensions STARTS works with. Different funded projects offer complementary opportunities and services.

4Growth will showcase the uptake of digital technologies and data through the “4Growth Visualisation Platform” that will combine powerful storytelling with advanced visualisations of the market.

This 3-year Horizon Europe project, funded by the European Commission, brings together 13 partners with the aim of understanding where, how and to what extent digital technologies and data are being adopted within the agricultural and forestry sectors. The project started in January 2024 and will end in December 2026.

OrganicTargets4EU supports the Farm-to-Fork Strategy in achieving the targets of at least 25% of the EU's agricultural land under organic farming and a significant increase in organic aquaculture by 2030.

Activities

OrganicTargets4EU for reaching these targets and identifies key drivers and lock-ins affecting the development of organic agriculture and aquaculture in 29 countries (EU-27+CH+NO). 

Production and Market analysis of the identified scenarios to provide a picture of:

• Where increases in organic farmland can be achieved
• The socio-economic impacts of these increases at the level of primary production, value chains, and markets
• The mechanisms that can drive demand for organic food 

Knowledge & Innovation actions to:

• Identify opportunities to strengthen organic advisory services
• Stimulate the exchange of scientific and practical knowledge
• Increase and coordinate R&I investments in the organic sector 

Policy work facilitating a multi-actor policy dialogue to:

• Assess the feasibility of the organic Farm-to-Fork targets
• Supports the implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), EU Organic Regulation, Organic Action Plan
• Provide short-term policy options (policy framework up to 2027) and policy recommendations in the next policy reform (from 2028 onwards).

Regenerating the ecosystem of science learning by developing a future-oriented model to enable creative thinking, foresight and active hope as skills needed in formal and informal science education.

FEDORA was a 3-year EU-funded project, which started in September 2020 and deployed its activities until August 2023. It gathered 6 partner institutions from 5 European countries. It conducted reasearch and practice towards the regeneration of the ecosystem of science learning, by developing a future-oriented model to enable creative thinking, foresight and active hope, as skills needed in formal and informal science education.

https://www.fedora-project.eu/

Democracy across Europe has experienced immense challenge, change and uncertainty in recent years (Canal 2014; European Commission & Merkel; 2019) - from the rise of populism to decreasing levels of public trust in governance institutions and processes, to the war in Ukraine. Set against the backdrop of these issues, EUARENAS has been investigating how cities and urban spaces can strengthen legitimacy, identification and engagement within the democratic public sphere. Specifically, EUARENAS has been exploring how participation and deliberation in democracy and decision-making can be increased, and how voices and communities who are excluded from such arenas can be more actively involved.

Foresight is one of the research strands present in EUARENAS. In this project, foresight is both a tool for understanding democratic innovations as they emerge, and for engaging citizens and other actors in such innovations within the participatory and deliberative realms. Mixed method approaches to foresight that incorporate a diversity of activities such as media discourse analysis, lived experience storytelling, social media analysis, three horizons mapping, driver-mapping, scenario and visioning exercises and policy stress- testing have been used in EUARENAS to investigate and hypothesise over future trends and scenarios in participatory democracies. 

From this work, we propose the following recommendations for Cities wanting to strive towards more equitable local democracies:

1. Address structural barriers to participation
2. Build relationships of trust
3. Invest in formal and civic education
4. Make decisions for the long-term

A more equitable, inclusive local democracy landscape is not too far in the distance for us to conceive it being possible. In fact, the future is now – the seeds to create it are already being planted, they just need nurturing by:

• Scaling and mainstreaming existing pilot or niche practices that are working locally – whether that beparticipatory budgeting, citizen assemblies or other smaller-scale projects – so that these become thenew ‘status quo’
• Adopting test and learn approaches to promote experimentation and on-going learning – this will enableongoing innovation and be responsive to society's needs
• Finding ways to celebrate and connect-up the small changes that are taking place - this will help people see that progress is being made, even when it feels like things are changing too slow

It would be short-sighted to assume that we, as humanity, have reached such a level of maturity that our descendants will not find some aspects of our – apparently civilised – everyday life repulsive and sad.
So we asked 60 futurists from around the world: “What will we disgust our descendants with?”
Many of the submitted ideas are already present in public discourse and confirm areas in which we need to change. But we were especially interested in novel barbarisms that humanity is still largely oblivious to.
The resulting infographic shows the futurists’ answers grouped into 93 contemporary barbarisms ranked in a public vote according to how eye-opening they are.

4CF The Futures Literacy Company 

The ongoing inter-institutional European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) Horizon Scanning activity is led since 2022 by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission and the European Parliamentary Research Services. An iterative methodology is rolled out at three successive levels, involving experts in a variety of policy areas and across several EU institutions.

Firstly, at the outset, this exercise builds a wider EU community engaged in horizon scanning. Their task at a first level has involved looking for future developments that sit at the margins of current thinking and planning, the so-called ‘signs of new’.

Secondly, sense-making workshops are organised on a monthly basis to consider through new lenses the identified ‘signs of new’ collected over the month and find links and interconnections among them across policies and sectors. The aim of these second-level workshops is thus to imagine possible impactful future developments, ‘signals of change’, using the collected signs as prompts.

Thirdly, future impact workshops, conceived as exploratory and prioritisation workshops are organised after conducting a few sense-making workshops. These workshops also include the participation of officials across all ESPAS institutions and aim to prioritise the three potentially most impactful ‘signals of change’ from among those identified at an earlier stage.
This careful process results in Horizon Scanning newsletters providing a broader perspective on policy making.

Read the latest newsletters here: Horizon Scanning | ESPAS

See also blog post describing the project and its role in EU : Spotting the Future: How Horizon Scanning can help shape EU Policy - European Commission (europa.eu) 

ESPAS Horizon Scanning feeds to other ESPAS projects. Read the Global Trends Reports published every five years.

Partners:

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC)
European Parliamentary Research Services (EPRS)

Project

Successfully managing the green and digital transitions is a crucial factor that could increase the resilience and strategic autonomy of the EU and shape its future. Yet the digitalisation of agriculture and rural areas raises vital questions about winners and losers, costs, benefits, and long-term implications. 

European Commission’s foresight project coordinated by EU Policy Lab together with the Department for Agriculture and Rural Development (AGRI) in 2023-2024 explored the interplay between digital transition, policies and the resilience of the agricultural sector and rural areas, against the backdrop of potential disruptive and transformative changes. 

The digital transition will occur in a rapidly changing world faced with climate change, environmental degradation, geopolitical instability, shifting supply networks, and evolving consumer demand. This study's foresight scenarios suggest that digitalisation can catalyse transformation, aiding in coping with shocks, knowledge acquisition, community building, and system-related thinking. But at the same time, it can also reinforce inequalities and introduce rigidities. Therefore, digitalisation support should aim to create sustainable food systems and robust, connected, and prosperous rural areas and communities. 

A sound digital transition strategy should promote agricultural and rural resilience, green transition, digital citizenship for farmers and communities, and overall well-being. Digitalisation should uphold values like trust, equality, power, sovereignty, and care. Its execution should prioritise collaboration, accessibility, people-centric design, and circularity. Key enablers for a successful digital transition include capacity building for digital skills, fostering a robust digital ecosystem, investing in infrastructure and connectivity, and securing sufficient funding. 

Read the blog post to learn more about the project.

Science for Policy Report

Based on a participatory foresight process, the Digital transition: Long-term implications for EU farmers and rural communities - report presents the outcomes of this exploration, proposing building blocks for an effective EU digital transition strategy for agriculture and rural areas supported by a hands-on policymaker’s toolkit.

Toolkit

The toolkit can help decision makers engage in strategic conversations about the implications of digital transition for farmers and rural communities. The tookit includes questions and activities to inform a digital strategy for agriculture and rural areas.The toolkit can help to:
Uncover key issues to reflect on when building a digitalisation vision and strategy.
Engage stakeholders to develop or improve the existing digital strategy.
Increase your anticipatory capacity and future-proof your digital transition strategy.
Learn more and download the toolkit.  

Interactive Vision Framework

The vision framework outlines the key elements that can support the digital transition of agriculture and rural areas.What is the purpose of digital transition from the perspectives of farmers and rural communities? Which values and principles should guide it? What are the enablers for the adoption and use of digital technologies? Explore the interactive Vision Framework 

As a result of the recent pandemic, global value chains have completely transformed. This has raised concerns over the ensuing social, economic and environmental trends and related impact on the way supply chains are organised. In this context, the EU-funded ReSChape project will analyse social, economic and environmental changes and disruptions, including the COVID-19 pandemic, and evaluate their impact on supply chains. New supply chain models will be proposed, aiming towards a more streamlined supply chain process to assure humans (workers, consumers and in general citizens) to be at the center of the business also thanks to new digital technologies. It will be studied how to assure a positive social impact and innovative policy scenarios will be developed with recommendations to support the future supply chains.

The aims of this proposal are:
• To analyse social, economic and environmental changes and disruptions (including covid) and evaluate their impact on SCs, identifying related challenges in terms of relationship between countries, configuration of the network, impact on employment.

• To study and propose a set of SC models for the evolution of global SC integrating strategies like resource efficient, closed-loop and humanitarian as a way to increase EU resilience and sustainability. Particular attention will be given to the role of digitalization as a way to establish new paths for social inclusion taking into consideration the needs of urban and rural areas. Some important European sectors like fashion, automotive, medical and machine tools will be analysed with case studies and survey.

• To develop Innovative tools for monitoring and assessing sectoral trade patterns and defining mechanisms to evaluate relationship of disruptions like pandemic and global value chains taking into consideration impact on employment, economic growth, incomes etc also in the long term. Moreover, it will be analysed the impact of different trade patterns, on the EU value added of sectoral and countries with a specific focus on analyzing income inequalities and proposition of decent work and social cohesion. Particular attention will be gives to gender issues and social disparities.

• To develop innovative policy scenarios with recommendations for future global value chains: policy scenarios will be based on Key horizontal issues impacting on several sectors and will provide recommendations for EU, national and sectoral strategies, policy measures and targeted actions aimed at shaping fair, inclusive and sustainable trade patterns, value and supply chains as well as production networks.

Anticipatin and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation (ANTICIPINNOV) project is a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) with the European Innovation Council (EIC) 2023-2024 to strengthen strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. Learn more about the project from its's three different branches. 

Everybody is looking into the Future! A literature review of reports on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation

Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, present leading challenges in policy-making nowadays. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks, emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policy-making and preparedness. The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation trends and signals produced by public and private entities outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support innovation funding prioritisation. Other insights were extracted, namely those related with the scope of the EIC Programme Manager portfolios. 

Read EU Policy Lab blog post :Everybody is looking into the future: a technology foresight perspective 

Scanning deep tech horizons: Participatory collection and assessment of signals and trends

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction. The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives. The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC. 

Read EU Policy Lab blog post: Technology foresight: anticipating the innovations of tomorrow 

Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation: Methods and Best Practices

 In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers. Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape technological change. In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning. Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop. 

Futures Garden: Pioneering Policy Innovation through Speculative Design

At Futures Garden, we embark on a visionary journey to redefine policy-making for Europe's future. Our unique platform collaborates with leading futurists, innovative designers, and engaged EU citizens to envision a Europe enriched by diverse potential futures, each with its own opportunities and challenges. Our mission? To revolutionize policy creation by intertwining speculative design with creativity, empathy, and analytical insight. Our four-step approach ensures a comprehensive and impactful exploration:

• Horizon Scanning: We dive into cutting-edge ideas and emerging trends, identifying opportunities that could shape Europe's future.
• Speculative Design: Our creative process transforms abstract concepts into tangible, thought-provoking scenarios, making future possibilities more accessible and engaging.
• Citizen Engagement: We delve into the societal implications of these speculative scenarios, gathering diverse perspectives and insights from EU citizens.
• Policy Reflection: The final step involves analyzing the potential impact of these innovative ideas on policy-making, ensuring that future EU policies are forward-thinking, inclusive, and impactful.
  

Creating fictional artifacts through speculative design
Futures Garden aims at creating inspiring alternative future scenarios through the use of fictional future artifacts that invite to reflection and debate. The pilot project took place in 2023 and addressed two themes:

• “Dealing with future selves” explores new ways of being, individually and collectively, examines new practices and technologies that enhance self-reflection and sharing of emotions, which help shape our choices in life and nurture a renewed sense of togetherness.
• “Extending human perception to new scales” explores the richness of non-human intelligences, expanding our attention and appreciation for their unique sensory worlds, their “umwelt” – what they “feel” and how they “think”. In doing so it departs from the human-centric worldview towards a deeper understanding and celebration of life on Earth.
  
  The resulting fictional artifacts took the form of short, thought-provoking movies – Inwards and Symbiotic – which render the imagined future scenarios more tangible, immersive and engaging.
  
  Watch "Inwards" - The 2050s a re a time of deep social reconfiguration. No longer believing in the myth of perpetual economic growth, recipes for self-empowerment, and technological fixes, citizens of Europe seek to regain agency by turning inwards.
  New cultures of emotional excellence and material minimalism emerge, supported by tools for assisted introspection and emotion sharing. In the wake of this quiet revolution, the social contract progressively integrates a renewed sense of togetherness.
  
  Watch "Symbiotic" - Set in the Symbiocene era of the 2050s, a time marked by an expanded understanding of intelligence beyond human confines, Symbiotic explores a revolutionary breakthrough. Scientists have created a device that allows humans to experience the perceptions and sensory worlds of other intelligent beings, immersing them in the 'umwelt' of these creatures. This film documents the first groundbreaking experiences through the device, capturing the profound experiences of those who ventured into these new realms of intelligence.

This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning.

The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe.

The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities:

• As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis.
• An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on futures4europe.eu.
• An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions.
• On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics:
  > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering
  > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative
  > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership
  > Global Commons
  > Transhumanist Revolutions
  
• Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments:
  > Social Confrontations
  > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities
  > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities
  > The Future of Health
  
• A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days.
• Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy.

The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project.

This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 

Food systems require urgent and profound transformation to become sustainable, both in Europe and worldwide. Social innovation plays a pivotal role in transforming today’s food systems into ones that are economically and socially feasible, and sustainable within planetary boundaries.

The project Reimagining the Food System: scanning the horizon for emerging social innovations was conducted by the Foresight on Demand consortium between July - December 2021, on behalf of the European Environment Agency. It engaged in a systemic examination of emerging social innovations across the food chain, conducted using horizon scanning, a tool to detect early signs of potentially important developments. Thus, it offers insights into the experimentation taking place in alternative ways to produce, trade and consume food.

Project phases:

• The horizon-scanning combined web mining with a filtering and validation process, using machine learning and human evaluation. The exercise identified over 240 weak (or early) signals from a variety of news articles, blogs and grey literature published in English between 2017 and 2021. The signals were aggregated into 24 closely related subsets, with each cluster hinting at a potential emerging issue (see image below);

• Next, 21 representatives from civil society organisations, business, academia and government discussed these issues at a sense-making workshop in September 2021;
• Following the workshop, 10 emerging issues were prioritised for characterisation. The characterisation was based on desk research and 11 semi-structured interviews with experts in the field. The 10 selected emerging issues include developments in new foods, products, services, and business and governance models. These issues have often been enabled by existing technologies and new forms of local partnerships, involving a variety of engaged stakeholders. They vary in their degree of maturity and novelty: some are relatively new developments, while others lend new perspectives to known subjects. Moreover, some provide new combinations of existing elements, while others are niche practices beginning to filter into the mainstream:
  
  1. Agroecology: a way of producing food and living, a science and a movement for change
  2. Soulful soil: alternative methods for nutrient and pest management
  3. The power of many: community-supported agriculture networks and initiatives
  4. Food-growing cities: urban farming, integrated food policies and citizen involvement
  5. Muscle-up: alternative protein sources for human consumption
  6. Knowledge is power: ensuring traceability and informing consumers
  7. Reclaiming retail: (re)connecting farmers with consumers and businesses
  8. Procurement strategies supporting sustainable agricultural and fishing practices
  9. Menu for change: restaurants feed appetite for sustainability
  10. The gift that keeps on giving: upcycled foods and food into energy

Read the European Environment Agency's briefing building on key findings of the project: Reimagining the food system through social innovations — European Environment Agency (europa.eu) 

As a Coordination and Support Action, project “Eye of Europe” aims to enhance the integration of foresight practices into Research and Innovation (R&I) policy making across Europe. Ultimately, the project envisions a more cohesive and influential R&I foresight community that contributes significantly, as a collective intelligence, to shaping and guiding policy decisions.

To this end, Eye of Europe builds on existing initiatives and experiences to foster knowledge-sharing between foresight practitioners and policy makers, attract domain experts in foresight endeavours, and engage a broader audience in futures thinking. Nurturing futures4europe as the online home for the community and running various face-to-face events with different stakeholders will underpin these ambitions.
Methodologically, the project relies on the following building blocks:

• futures4europe.eu as the online hub for the R&I foresight community in Europe: The platform accommodates the interests of various stakeholders such as foresight experts, beneficiaries, domain experts, and an active audience. It operates on multiple integration levels, from mapping organizations and experts to sharing foresight results and capabilities. Moreover, it acts as the communication gateway for ongoing foresight activities, events, educational and inspirational materials.
  
  
• Sharing of practices: This entails mapping institutions engaged in R&I foresight activities, promoting mutual learning through interactive formats, developing shared visions for the future of foresight in R&I policy within the European Research Area (ERA), fostering exchanges among the foresight in R&I policy community through conferences, encouraging dialogues between futurist/expert communities, academics and policy practitioners.
  Key figures: 5 mutual learning events (MLE): 2 online, 3 face-to-face events; 1 vision building event for the Future of R&I Foresight in ERA; 2 conferences
  
  
• Running foresight pilots: Conducting a series of pilot workshops and online consultations with diverse formats, methodologies, and participants. This involves identifying topics of common interest within the European Research Area (ERA), where foresight perspectives offer added value, designing and implementing tailored pilot foresight activities involving various stakeholders, harnessing lessons learnt and feeding them into the platform and other dissemination channels.
  Key figures: 11 Foresight pilot processes: 3 exclusively with citizens, 4 mainly with experts and researchers tackling specific R&I topics, 4 involving a bespoke group of participants. Out of the 11 events, 8 will be face-to-face events, and 3 pilots will take place online
  
  
• Boosting futures literacy: The project encourages meaningful engagement with diverse audiences, from foresight professionals, researchers, policy-makers to various futures sensitive profiles (e.g. entrepreneurs, journalists, artists) and the wider civil society. The project will provide guides, methodology toolboxes, and training modules for R&I foresight and futures literacy, incorporating written and multimedia content.
  Key figures: 5-10 short training sets for participants in foresight exercises; 1 training module for foresight beneficiaries; 1 foresight training for early career researchers, 1 Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on R&I foresight; 12 conversational podcasts; 6-8 Short videos and/or animated materials showcasing foresight processes and outcomes
  
  
• Fueling the public discourse around futures: Promoting the project and fostering the foresight community via the online platform futures4europe.eu and complementary channels such as social media and a dedicated newsletter. In addition to highlighting the project's own initiatives, Eye of Europe will also aim to promote foresight content developed in other projects, showcasing a diverse range of perspectives and insights within the foresight field. The quarterly newsletter will feature various content types like interviews, project updates, and foresight-related articles. Social media, particularly Futures4Europe's LinkedIn page, will be used to engage professional communities and wider audiences, with a focus on sharing project activities and fostering discussions.