FOD EEA Urban Mobility 1:

The aim of the project was to scan the horizon for emerging issues that may affect what urban mobility might look like in Europe in 2050. Furthermore, implications of these possible developments for air quality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, noise, land use, and in turn for the health and well-being of the inhabitants of European cities were explored. The emerging issues identified contributed to some of the key questions that were identified as part of the EEA’s urban Sustainability Conceptual Framework, such as how cities can look past the personal car era and reimagine their streets as pathway for recovery, built around walking, biking, and public transit. The outcomes of the project included six factsheets on emerging issues related to urban mobility and their impact on health and the environment, including trends, uncertainties and impacts for environment, health and related policy making, including sources of evidence, as well as three possible narratives with visuals on urban mobility in 2050, where two or more of the emerging issues are combined in different but meaningful ways, and a final short report describing the methodology and references used.

FOD EEA Urban Mobility 2:

The purpose of the project was to strengthen the outputs of the previous contract (European urban mobility 2050), which covered a horizon scan for emerging issues that may affect what urban mobility might look like in Europe in 2050. Specifically, the study produced a strengthened and enriched version of the six emerging issues identified and developed in the previous contract, two additional emerging issues identified as part of the previous contract but not developed, namely ‘New and upcoming business models for delivery and mobility‘, and ‘Combination of V2X and IoT’, mind-map representations of the three narratives identified in the previous contract illustrating the key elements, connections and implications on health and environment at three spatial levels: individual, city, and regional / network of cities, and a 4-page briefing that summarises the process and outputs from this contract and the previous one. The briefing was designed to inform EEA’s audience of the ongoing forward-looking work associated with urban mobility.

The foresight study focused on school education (ISCED levels 1-3) in the EU. It aimed at:

• developing four scenarios, describing potential alternative futures of the school education in the EUby 2040.
• identifying the preferred scenario developments.
• providing recommendations on the policy measures that could be introduced, or strengthened, tohelp school education in the EU move towards the preferred future scenario.

The development of the scenarios was based on the factors of change1, identified through desk research, horizon scanning, and extensive stakeholder involvement. More than 80 European Commission officials, school education experts, representatives of teacher, student and headmaster umbrella organisations, and other stakeholders, from across the EU, contributed to the study, by participating in four workshops, a Delphi survey, and interviews.

A foresight study on school education (ISCED levels 1-3) in the EU, which aimed at developing four scenarios, describing potential alternative futures of the school education in the EU by 2040, identifying the preferred scenario developments and providing recommendations on the policy measures that could be introduced, or strengthened, to help school education in the EU move towards the preferred future scenario.

This foresight study's purpose was to anticipate future challenges for consumer policy in the context of the twin transition and the short- and long-termed impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behaviour, consumption patterns and markets in Europe with a time horizon of 2025 to 2030. In order to find answers to the complex questions of uncertain future developments the foresight team combined several approaches of foresight for anticipatory governance. This includes a systematic horizon scanning of existing reports for weak signals of change in all fields of society such as societal developments, technology, economy, environment, policy and values. The literature and data based information collection was combined with explorative exercises like a scenario development, a visioning process and a gap analysis to develop new ideas for policy options. The engagement of stakeholders and experts on consumer policy was crucial throughout the whole process, in particular for the analysis of influencing factors, alternative scenarios and suggestions for policy actions. 

With its anticipatory and exploratory nature, the study was a pilot project for the implementation of comprehensive strategic foresight in DG JUST. Accordingly, the project was also used to build capacity for foresight in dealing with future uncertainty. Representatives of several departments of the DG actively participated in the workshops in all four steps of the process and thus got to know and tested the methods of foresight. These include participatory and qualitative foresight methods such as horizon scanning and scoping for identifying key future trends, scenario and vision development for exploring different possible futures and identifying challenges, and roadmapping approaches for developing options for action. Another important
element of the study was the intensive involvement of stakeholders in all steps of the process, especially in the development and discussion of future scenarios and in the development of new policy ideas.

The DG can use the various results of the Foresight process for the further future-proof implementation of the New Consumer Agenda. The trends examined for the scenarios can be reviewed at regular intervals with regard to new developments and impacts on consumption and consumer protection. The scenarios provide an overview of possible futures of consumption in Europe after the COVID-19 pandemic and serve for exploring the scope of possible developments. The visions for consumer protection and empowerment, especially of vulnerable groups and consumers with special needs, summarise stakeholders' expectations for consumer policy in the next 10 years. The action fields prioritised together with stakeholders for consumer policy in and after the pandemic and the ideas for policy actions can now be used by the EC to set its own priorities and develop ideas into concrete actions. The EC may not want to take up all the ideas presented here, but the suggestions can provide guidance on which issues are of high importance from a stakeholder perspective in the COVID-19 crisis.

This foresight study's purpose was to anticipate future challenges for consumer policy in the context of the twin transition and the short- and long-termed impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behaviour, consumption patterns and markets in Europe with a time horizon of 2025 to 2030. 

In order to find answers to the complex questions of uncertain future developments the foresight team combined several approaches of foresight for anticipatory governance. This includes a systematic horizon scanning of existing reports for weak signals of change in all fields of society such as societal developments, technology, economy, environment, policy and values. The literature and data based information collection was combined with explorative exercises like a scenario development, a visioning process and a gap analysis to develop new ideas for policy options. The engagement of stakeholders and experts on consumer policy was
crucial throughout the whole process, in particular for the analysis of influencing factors, alternative scenarios
and suggestions for policy actions. 

With its anticipatory and exploratory nature, the study was a pilot project for the implementation of comprehensive strategic foresight in DG JUST. Accordingly, the project was also used to build capacity for foresight in dealing with future uncertainty. Representatives of several departments of the DG actively participated in the workshops in all four steps of the process and thus got to know and tested the methods of foresight. These include participatory and qualitative foresight methods such as horizon scanning and scoping for identifying key future trends, scenario and vision development for exploring different possible futures and identifying challenges, and roadmapping approaches for developing options for action. Another important element of the study was the intensive involvement of stakeholders in all steps of the process, especially in the development and discussion of future scenarios and in the development of new policy ideas.

The DG can use the various results of the Foresight process for the further future-proof implementation of the New Consumer Agenda. The trends examined for the scenarios can be reviewed at regular intervals with regard to new developments and impacts on consumption and consumer protection. The scenarios provide an overview of possible futures of consumption in Europe after the COVID-19 pandemic and serve for exploring
the scope of possible developments. The visions for consumer protection and empowerment, especially of vulnerable groups and consumers with special needs, summarise stakeholders' expectations for consumer policy in the next 10 years. The action fields prioritised together with stakeholders for consumer policy in and after the pandemic and the ideas for policy actions can now be used by the EC to set its own priorities and develop ideas into concrete actions. The EC may not want to take up all the ideas presented here, but the suggestions can provide guidance on which issues are of high importance from a stakeholder perspective in the COVID-19 crisis.

The EU introduced missions as a new instrument in Horizon Europe. Mission Boards were appointed to elaborate visions for the future in five Areas: Adaptation to Climate Change, Including Societal Transformation; Cancer; Healthy Oceans, Seas, and Coastal and Inland Waters; Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities; Soil Health and Food. Starting in autumn 2019, five Foresight on Demand projects supported them with foresight expertise and methodology.

This report provides the work in support of the Mission Board on Soil Health and Food. Adopting a long-term perspective, the project first contributed to better understand the drivers, trends and weak signals with the most significant potential to influence the future of soil health and food. With the Mission Board, three scenarios for 2040 were sketched. In the final step, system-thinking knowledge was applied to identify concepts, solutions, and practices able to promote systematic change in the sector.

The EU introduced missions as a new instrument in Horizon Europe. Mission Boards were appointed to elaborate visions for the future in five Areas: Adaptation to Climate Change, Including Societal Transformation; Cancer; Healthy Oceans, Seas, and Coastal and Inland Waters; Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities; Soil Health and Food. Starting in autumn 2019, five Foresight on Demand projects supported them with foresight expertise and methodology. This report provides the work in support of the Mission Board on Soil Health and Food. Adopting a long-term perspective, the project first contributed to better understand the drivers, trends and weak signals with the most significant potential to influence the future of soil health and food. With the Mission Board, three scenarios for 2040 were sketched. In the final step, system-thinking knowledge was applied to identify concepts, solutions, and practices able to promote systematic change in the sector.

This final report summarises the results of the actions to support the Mission Board for “Adaptation to Climate Change, including Societal Transformation” with forward-looking evidence.

In accordance with the Request, the proposed services, approaches to be adopted, and the concrete nature and form of the outputs have been shaped and validated through close interaction with the Mission Board (MB) via the Mission Secretariat, run by relevant European Commission (EC) services, throughout the implementation of the action.

As a result of the interactions with the Mission Secretariat, the following actions were taken:

1. Preparing a short paper Input to Mission Board on scoping activities & tasks
   (Deliverable 1)
2. Analysing national and regional funding programmes of selected countries for
   projects on Climate Change Adaptation, and conducting interviews with selected
   Mission Board members in preparation of a foresight workshop.
3. Preparing an input paper for the foresight workshop Input Document FoD CCA
   Workshop, 23 January 2020 (Deliverable 2).
4. Holding a foresight workshop (23 January 2020) with Mission Board members,
   European Commission representatives (Mission Secretariat), and foresight experts,
   and summarising the results of the workshop. The workshop served to identify
   barriers and solutions, enablers and impacts of climate change adaptation in a variety
   of thematic fields, including health, water, food and agriculture.
5. Developing and implementing a Delphi survey on assessing key aspects of the draft
   paper of the Mission Board. The survey addressed climate experts. They assessed
   future targets in thematic fields (e.g. financial risks, health, social infrastructure), and
   ranked related measures and R&I fields for importance.
6. Preparing and analysing the results of the Delphi survey: Delphi Survey results,
   July/August 2020 (Deliverables 3 and 4).

The report is structured along these deliverables.

The evolving complexity of global challenges is increasingly affecting the steering of European Research and Innovation which aims at addressing important present and future societal concerns. The idea of ‘watching futures’ to anticipate future possibilities and analyse the consequences of current choices to inform and shape a forward-looking EU R&I policy is continuously gaining ground. 

In this light, as part of the ‘European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe’ study launched by the European Commission in connection to the Horizon Europe Foresight Network, a second series of online workshops will take place during October – November 2023.

The workshops, which will run for two hours each, will discuss insights stemming from thematic policy briefs compiled by expert panels, addressing possible future scenarios for critical issues (i.e., Interpretation of Criminal and Lawful Activities, Green Skills and Jobs, Big Tech, etc.). Following the presentation of each policy brief, each workshop will feature two focus groups: one involving the group of experts from the panel who developed the policy brief and one including representatives from topic-relevant EU-funded R&I projects. All events will foster extensive engagement with participants, including policymakers.