This report provides the findings from the ‘Foresight on Demand’ project supporting the Horizon Europe
Mission Board for Healthy Oceans, Seas, Coastal and Inland Waters in its task of defining specific
Mission(s) to be addressed in Horizon Europe. The overarching goal of the project was to support the
reflections of the Mission Board from a forward-looking perspective.
The team of experts was set up by the ‘Foresight on Demand’ consortium to provide the Board with wellversed
expertise in both foresight methodology as well as thematic developments on the future of
oceans and water. The objective was to think along with the board and to stimulate the debates by
raising surprising and challenging issues based on forward-looking analysis and exploration. The project
provided the Mission Board with new information, (systemic) insights and/or alternative future visions
that connect the extremely multi-dimensioned topics tackled by this Mission Board.
The project had started with the scoping phase of identifying focal areas of which results were discussed
in the meeting with the Mission Board. Subsequently, the foresight team explored further future
uncertainties and knowledge gaps via a real-time Delhi survey to stakeholders. The scoping phase
began with the scanning of 33 foresight reports looking towards 2050, foresight databases and news
feeds to address long-term developments and emerging signals of change. In particular, the foresight
expert team developed five focal areas, which were presented to the Mission Board to provide
interconnected insights as well as challenging and provocative ideas to enrich their work. The five focal
areas are summarised in the table below:
After the initial phase of scanning and analysing emerging issues and synthesising the findings into five
focal areas the results were discussed with the Mission Board. In the meeting the discussion led the
Mission Board request the foresight team to continue the foresight work and identify further data and
knowledge gaps related to oceans and waters, the recovery of oceans and waters and their role in
climate change mitigation.
In line with foresight practice as well as with the Mission Board’s explicit desire to involve a wider public,
the study engaged stakeholders via a real-time Delphi method highly suitable to address future
uncertainties. The Delphi method is a structured group communication process, dealing with subjects,
on which often unsure and incomplete knowledge is available, that are judged upon by experts. The
idea is that the respondents can learn from the views of others, without being unduly influenced by the
hierarchies or other societal structures and power relations.
Invitations to the survey were sent to stakeholder groups in different sectors of society, in particular:
research and development, policy, industry and civil society. Approx. 3000 European stakeholders were
invited. The survey platform was open two weeks in February 2020 leading to the total of 238 registered
participants of which 138 finished the survey.
Participants assessed the total of 15 future statements and proposed new ones to be considered by the
Mission Board, in three areas: i) oceans and other water ecosystems, ii) the recovery of healthy oceans
and waters and iii) the role of oceans and waters in climate mitigation. The results of the assessments
presented in mean values are summarised in the following table in each of the three areas.
The findings form the survey can be summarised on each of the areas as follows:
- Oceans and other water ecosystems: In this area, all proposed issues are accepted as
important but, with the current attitude towards marine and water ecosystems, respondents
believed that actions will not be sustained properly. The reason for this lack of consistency
between “right things to do” and what is actually done probably resides in cultural gaps that
make it difficult to pass from theoretical analyses and legislation to action, with the reversal of
current trends. Nonetheless, the survey indicates consensus about the adoption of the
ecosystem approach, recognising that humans, with their cultural diversity, are an
integral component of ecosystems and emphasizing the need for collaboration between the
scientific community, the economic sector, policymakers and the public at large. - The recovery of healthy oceans and waters: In this area, the survey showed a remarkable
consistency, from all stakeholders, on the actions contributing to healthy oceans and waters.
This point could almost guarantee the success of the mission as it seems that the society
understands the enormous contribution of healthy oceans and waters on the planet earth.
Although the list of what can be achieved in the near future could be endless, the fact that we
have to include society at large in addressing challenges, should be our first step. - The role of oceans and waters in climate mitigation: The respondents provided a global
impression that Europe can be leader in several fields of climate mitigation. If, however, the
rest of the world is not addressing these efforts of climate mitigation, the role of Europe will not
have significant impact. There is no single major technological solution that, alone, would curb
the climate change, a goal that might be achieved by a mix of technologies and regulations, at
the right geographic scale, and as early as possible. Furthermore, positive and negative
impacts of each technology have to be assessed carefully as very little is still known on the
mid-term and long-term impacts of the different technologies available today. Much more
research and stakeholder cooperation are required to select the right technologies and
the optimum strategies on time, in order to avoid unmanageable trends. - Further areas to be explored: Next to the topics proposed by the foresight expert team,
stakeholders were asked to suggest other topics that should be understood better and acted
upon in the EU. Three main topics emerged: research and research infrastructure, civil
society, and corporate social responsibility.
Final remarks and recommendations
The first part of the foresight study led to the descriptions of five possible focal areas for European
innovation action in the realm of oceans and waters: 1. Climate-resilient coastlines, 2. Clean water for
the blue planet, 3. Vital aquatic ecosystems, 4. Open digital twin of oceans and waters, 5. Humans at
sea. All these focal areas have similar magnitudes, notably if we consider an extensive view of "humans
at sea" not only as an island network but as a continuum between a vulnerable and densely populated
low elevation zone and a potentially harmful but also rich coastal ocean. In view of addressing the focal
areas or their elements in the future actions towards sustainable development in Europe, it is worth
prioritising such efforts in relation with the general theory of systems that establishes the hierarchy of
systems in three spheres showing that human activities and economy are nested into natural systems
and must obey their laws. Traditional illustrations of sustainability, however, show only a small overlap
of the three spheres, this overlap representing sustainability.
The real-time Delphi survey confirmed that there is a need for a holistic approach leading to more
structured actions. This is widely recognized but seldom satisfied. Too specific actions, undertaken while
ignoring the behaviour of the rest of the ecosystems, may lead to temporary success but will surely not
improve the overall situation. This calls for enhanced efforts in improving ocean literacy at all levels,
from the scientific community (too focused on reductionistic approaches) to the economic, social and
industrial sectors. Furthermore, the conceptual landscape embracing water ecosystems (linking oceanic
and inland waters) is very fragmented, with the high risk that while fixing specific problems other
problems are created. Hence, we conclude with three recommendations.
- Adopt a holistic approach for balanced actions that calls for improving water literacy at all
levels of society. - Create networks of interest using a common (not too technical) language embracing water
ecosystems (including both oceanic and inland waters) to overcome fragmentation in society. - Conduct holistic impact assessments and establish monitoring mechanisms of measures
implemented to fix specific problems to avoid creating in parallel new problems in complex
ecosystems.
