This report showcases the results of the two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey carried out within the project “S&T&I for 2050. Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions”. The overarching ambition of this project is the “identification and mapping of future scientific and technological developments that can radically improve ecosystem performance”. The main outcome is to provide “reflections towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (HE), in its broad direction to support the Sustainable Development Goals.”

To this end, quantitative and qualitative methods were employed, among which this report refers to:  

• Patent and bibliometric analysis for selecting the most dynamic Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) domains; 
• Horizon scanning through web mining and human evaluation for identifying key STI directions and specific examples of technological/scientific breakthroughs within these directions; 
• Dynamic Argumentative Delphi engaging relevant experts from around the world in an argument-based exploration regarding the contribution of STI to the capability of ecosystems to flourish from now to 2050. 

Some studies have recently indicated that the number of countries classified as democracies are decreasing whereas authoritarian regimes are at the forefront. Also, within our societies we are increasingly witnessing disturbing signs of violent confrontation on the streets and verbal hate speech in the so called social media. In some European states we are witnessing policy-makers and citizens embracing elements of illiberal democracy and authoritarianism. 

How do these trends impact the future of democracy in the EU, in Europe? What are the perspectives of living together in a united Europe that is facing severe pressure from such megatrends as the climate crisis, military conflict and migration from inflicted countries, big tech controlling social media? How can we ensure that the project of democracy in the context of European peace after WWII will continue in the future? For the next 60 years? How can we give other actors - such as nature and future generations - a voice, which we have neglected/failed to do so far ? What aspects for research and innovation policy arise from these developments?

On behalf of the “Eye of Europe” project, we are offering a half-day online workshop for a maximum of 60 participants. The workshop aims to shed light on the questions "What makes democracy last? What could it look like in the future"? To do so, the workshop approach relies on a historical, empirical-analytical point of view, contrasted by a look into science fiction literature (see book titles above) that deals with democratic governance structures of the future. 

This is one event in a series of “Eye of Europe” pilot workshops taking place during 2025, aimed at exploring various futures and their implications for R&I policy.

The workshop is open to a wide audience - experts and non-experts - interested in questions of future democracies. The workshop also wants to give EU projects dedicated to the study of democracies a chance to present their work to a wider audience and connect with the futures4europe community.

The workshop is free of charge.

Paulo Carvalho has been working in the field of futures and foresight for more than 25 years. On one hand, he is a professor in foresight, strategy and innovation at the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Lisbon. On the other hand, he founded a foresight company five years ago, IF Insight Foresight, focussing on consulting, horizon scanning and strategic intelligence, as well as other strategy and innovation projects. He talked to Futures4Europe about Insight Foresight’s recently developed tool ORION and how it could revolutionise foresight practices.