This report presents the results of a the project S&T&I for 2050: science, technology and innovation for ecosystem performance – accelerating sustainability transitions. The project’s overarching goal was to identify and map future scientific and technological developments, which can radically improve ecosystem performance.

The project was conducted along several phases:

• Based on literature review, the project team developed three perspectives on future relations between humans and nature and humans’ role in the flourishing of planetary ecosystems. The three perspectives are: i) protecting and restoring ecosystems, ii) co-shaping socio-ecological systems, and iii) caring within hybrid collectives
• A two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) online survey explored the most dynamic scientific and technological developments. The survey engaged over 600 experts globally in enriching, assessing and prioritizing STI directions in terms of their potential to contribute to the capability of planetary ecosystems to flourish from now to 2050.
• Drawing in on the three perspectives and the results of the DAD survey, six case studies on core sustainability issues explored the three perspectives. Reflections on implications for R&I policies in the context of the European Green Deal conclude each of the six case studies: i) Law for Nature; ii) Land Use Futures; iii) Soil to Soul; iv) Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy; v) Ecosystems and Micro-and Nano Cosmos; vi) Data as Representation

Human performance has long been a dominant pursuit and driver of progress in science, technology and innovation (STI). As notions of performance are still guiding STI research, discussions on its nature are relevant and shape STI directions. Human needs and performance are inextricably linked to challenges related to the health of the planet. Considering that, a debate is warranted to shift the attention from human performance to a more inclusive performance of flourishing ecosystems.
In this context, the vision of the project “S&T&I FOR 2050. Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions” was driven by the desire for STI efforts to place ecosystem performance on par with human performance. This broadens the focus of STI to encompass multiple conceptualisations of human-nature relations and to contribute to sustainability transitions.

The project’s overarching goal was to identify and map future scientific and technological developments, which can radically improve ecosystem performance. In doing so, it provided reflections on the 2nd strategic plan of Horizon Europe (HE), in its broad direction to support the Sustainable Development Goals.

The study was conducted along several phases:

• Based on literature review, the project team developed three perspectives on future relations between humans and nature and humans’ role in the flourishing of planetary ecosystems. The three perspectives are: i) protecting and restoring ecosystems, ii) co-shaping socio-ecological systems, and iii) caring within hybrid collectives
• A two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) online survey explored the most dynamic scientific and technological developments. The survey engaged over 600 experts globally in enriching, assessing and prioritizing STI directions in terms of their potential to contribute to the capability of planetary ecosystems to flourish from now to 2050.
• Drawing in on the three perspectives and the results of the DAD survey, six case studies on core sustainability issues explored the three perspectives. Reflections on implications for R&I policies in the context of the European Green Deal conclude each of the six case studies: i) Law for Nature; ii) Land Use Futures; iii) Soil to Soul; iv) Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy; v) Ecosystems and Micro-and Nano Cosmos; vi) Data as Representation

Charting Europe’s R&I Futures Pathways: Responsive Foresight for EU Policymaking in Uncertain Times
Foresight on Demand (FOD) addresses the growing need for quicker and more responsive foresight to inform policymaking in an increasingly turbulent environment. It complements strategic foresight by:
-) Raising and anticipating awareness of future developments, disruptive events, emerging technologies, and their potential broader socio-economic impacts.
-) Stimulating individuals, networks, and organizations to explore novel terrain, trigger “out-of-box” scenario development and foster innovative long-term thinking.
-) Supporting the preparedness and adaptability of long-term policy initiatives from a forward-looking perspective

Background
Already in 2016, the need for a rapid response foresight facility was identified by the SFRI expert group (Strategic Foresight for R&I Policy in Horizon 2020). They emphasized the importance of integrating foresight into European policymaking and complementing long-term strategic foresight with a rapid response mechanism. This would equip the European Commission with the necessary intelligence to swiftly address unexpected developments. In the context of R&I policy, greater flexibility in using foresight is essential to support various policy initiatives, from framework programmes to European partnerships. Higher and longer-term R&I ambitions, such as those in the context of missions, may require revisiting agendas, priorities, and plans in light of new scientific discoveries and socio-economic or geopolitical developments.
Building on the expertise and competence developed during FOD1 (2019-2023), FOD2 (2024-2028) will significantly expand the previous initiative, offering a more comprehensive and adaptable approach to address a broader range of challenges and opportunities.

Client Authorities
The demand for Foresight on Demand affects various European Commission services and other European institutions and agencies involved in policymaking at EU level. Foresight is increasingly important for implementing R&I policies, as large-scale initiatives and ambitious long-term projects require more than traditional strategic planning. They profit from a long-term view on emerging research opportunities and innovation needs. Joint Technology Initiatives and other European partnerships, which pursue long-term agendas, can build on foresight knowledge to anticipate and respond to emerging scientific, technological and socio-economic developments.
Several client authorities, including the European Commission (lead), EEA, ERCEA, FRA, ETF, EUROFUND, EFSA, EMCDDA, ECDC, EISMEA, EASA, OSHA, Global Health EDCTP3, and the Joint Undertakings EU-RAIL and CBE JU, have entered a single framework contract (FWC) for Foresight on Demand. While foresight processes are increasingly integrated into policymaking, the timing requirements for foresight intelligence and sense-making (e.g. signals of change in society, economy, science, and technology) often necessitate a quicker response than what usual foresight activities can provide. THE FOD framework provides the setting and conditions for this rapid foresight response mechanism.

FOD Consortium
The FOD consortium comprises fifteen core partners and five specialised partners, totalling twenty research and technology organisations experienced in foresight. Fourteen of the core partners were also involved in the first period of FOD (2019-2023), while seven new partners joined for the current FOD2 period (2024-2028). The new partners include 4CF The Foresight Company, DLR, TIS, EUNOMIA, RAND Europe, VTT, and Prognos, with 4CF and RAND Europe joining as core partners. The incumbent core partners are Arctik, Fraunhofer ISI, FFRC, IDEA Consult, Insight Foresight Institute, ISINNOVA, Institutul de Prospectiva, Technopolis, 4strat, Technology Centre Prague, Visionary Analytics, and ZSI Center for Social Innovation. The consortium is led by AIT Austrian Institute of Technology. 

Objectives
The framework contract is the basis for the Foresight on Demand (FOD) mechanism and aims at providing quick forward-looking inputs to policymaking by leveraging the best available foresight knowledge. FOD operates on a much shorter timescale complementarily to longer-term foresight activities but relies on extensive ongoing and accomplished foresight work. Access to a wide range of foresight sources and expertise is crucial for fulfilling FOD functions.
Policymakers increasingly face sudden and often surprising events that can quickly escalate secondary policy issues into disruptive ones requiring fast and effective responses. FOD foresight knowledge must be timely and efficient to support decisions related to urgent crises, emerging risks, and opportunities for addressing ongoing policy challenges. FOD aims to offer the broad range of client authorities timely and effective support in uncertain times, and provide forward-looking insights for policy design, planning, and implementation.
Foresight benefits policymaking in various ways, including for example by scanning the horizon for emerging developments and weak signals or by developing scenarios of alternative futures to better understand and to be better prepared for disruptive futures. The FOD service steps in where foresight activities have already been initiated or where there is a need to strengthen foresight capabilities, providing targeted foresight services that respond to emerging demands and potentially relevant developments.

“S&T&I for 2050” aims at broadening the focus of STI to encompass multiple conceptualisations of human-nature relations. To do this, a framework was constructed around the concept of ecosystem performance as driver of STI, instead of human performance. This places the attention on the flourishing of ecosystems that is deeply connected to human needs and wellbeing.

Established by the European Commission, Foresight-on-Demand is a mechanism to respond to the demand for quick inputs to policy-making by drawing on the best available foresight knowledge.

FoD aims at offering the European Commission services with timely and effective support related to crisis situations, emerging risks, and policy challenges.

The ultimate objectives of TRIGGER are to provide EU institutions with knowledge and tools to enhance their actorness, effectiveness and influence in global governance; and to develop new ways to harness the potential of public engagement and participatory foresight in complex governance decisions, thereby also tackling emerging trends such as nationalism, regionalism and protectionism.

TRIGGER specific objectives are:

• Advance the state of the art in understanding global governance;
• Evolution of the EU’s interaction with global governance, in particular so-called “actorness” and “effectiveness” of the EU;
• Understand how global governance and emerging technologies interact, and what role the EU plays in this respect, in particular as “regulatory superpower”;
• Identify emerging trends that strengthen / loosen deeper global governance and cooperation;
• Build capacity for strategic foresight and public engagement inside EU institutions.

The TRIGGER consortium is composed of 14 partners, including four non-EU countries. TRIGGER will achieve its objectives thanks to the combined effort of four research sub-groups:

• a group focused on global and EU governance, which will create an unprecedented Atlas of Global Governance REGulation and Europe’s AcTORness (AGGREGATOR);
• a group focused on the relationship between governance and emerging technologies; 
• a group dedicated to strategic foresight and public engagement, which will use new techniques such as AI-enabled sentiment analysis and innovative public engagement methods to develop a tool on Co-Creating the European Union (COCTEAU); and
• a group specialised in dissemination and communication. All major deliverables will eventually be merged into a toolkit dedicated to Public Engagement for Responsive and Shared EU Strategies (PERSEUS).

This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning.

The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe.

The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities:

• As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis.
• An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on futures4europe.eu.
• An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions.
• On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics:
  > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering
  > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative
  > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership
  > Global Commons
  > Transhumanist Revolutions
  
• Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments:
  > Social Confrontations
  > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities
  > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities
  > The Future of Health
  
• A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days.
• Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy.

The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project.

This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications. 

Food systems require urgent and profound transformation to become sustainable, both in Europe and worldwide. Social innovation plays a pivotal role in transforming today’s food systems into ones that are economically and socially feasible, and sustainable within planetary boundaries.

The project Reimagining the Food System: scanning the horizon for emerging social innovations was conducted by the Foresight on Demand consortium between July - December 2021, on behalf of the European Environment Agency. It engaged in a systemic examination of emerging social innovations across the food chain, conducted using horizon scanning, a tool to detect early signs of potentially important developments. Thus, it offers insights into the experimentation taking place in alternative ways to produce, trade and consume food.

Project phases:

• The horizon-scanning combined web mining with a filtering and validation process, using machine learning and human evaluation. The exercise identified over 240 weak (or early) signals from a variety of news articles, blogs and grey literature published in English between 2017 and 2021. The signals were aggregated into 24 closely related subsets, with each cluster hinting at a potential emerging issue (see image below);

• Next, 21 representatives from civil society organisations, business, academia and government discussed these issues at a sense-making workshop in September 2021;
• Following the workshop, 10 emerging issues were prioritised for characterisation. The characterisation was based on desk research and 11 semi-structured interviews with experts in the field. The 10 selected emerging issues include developments in new foods, products, services, and business and governance models. These issues have often been enabled by existing technologies and new forms of local partnerships, involving a variety of engaged stakeholders. They vary in their degree of maturity and novelty: some are relatively new developments, while others lend new perspectives to known subjects. Moreover, some provide new combinations of existing elements, while others are niche practices beginning to filter into the mainstream:
  
  1. Agroecology: a way of producing food and living, a science and a movement for change
  2. Soulful soil: alternative methods for nutrient and pest management
  3. The power of many: community-supported agriculture networks and initiatives
  4. Food-growing cities: urban farming, integrated food policies and citizen involvement
  5. Muscle-up: alternative protein sources for human consumption
  6. Knowledge is power: ensuring traceability and informing consumers
  7. Reclaiming retail: (re)connecting farmers with consumers and businesses
  8. Procurement strategies supporting sustainable agricultural and fishing practices
  9. Menu for change: restaurants feed appetite for sustainability
  10. The gift that keeps on giving: upcycled foods and food into energy

Read the European Environment Agency's briefing building on key findings of the project: Reimagining the food system through social innovations — European Environment Agency (europa.eu)