How important is the EU Framework Programme for Europe’s ability to respond effectively to potential future disruptions that could unfold from now to 2040?

What are the implications of those disruptions for the directions of EU research & innovation in the period 2025-2027?

These are the questions posed by the Research4Futures Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey, carried out between 6th – 18th of December 2022 by Institutul de Prospectiva, which engaged almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond.

The disruptions explored in the survey were drawn from recent foresight work performed by the Foresight on Demand consortium on behalf of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD), namely two projects: Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe, and project S&T&I FOR 2050. Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions. These projects delivered so-called foresight scenarios at the time horizon of 2040, but the scope, methodologies and final results were different.

The case studies developed in the two projects are rather extensive texts, so for a better user experience in the Research4Futures survey, these contents were clustered and significantly condensed, resulting in eleven domains, each presented in a one-page text. In the survey, each domain page was structured under three sections:
i) a brief description of the disruption(s) in the respective domain; where the disruptions encompass both crises and opportunities, hopes and fears;
ii) a set of brief future scenarios that explore different ways the disruptions might unfold and their consequences,
iii) a final section on implications for R&I, in light of the disruptions.

The figure below showcases the way respondents assessed the importance of the EU Framework Programme for Europe’s ability to respond effectively to the potential future disruptions within each of the domains explored in the survey.

Notably, respondents regard the EU Framework Programme as an important vector of the EU in addressing challenges and opportunities brought forth by future disruptions, casting an average score between 4 and 5 (on the scale from 1 to 5) with regards to all domains, with a minor exception.

Second, contributors to the survey view the EU Framework Programme to be of utmost relevance and importance in connection to the future of Artificial intelligence; suggesting a significant role of research and innovation in improving AI applications and establishing ethical frameworks for AI developments, in shaping the nature of human–AI collaboration. The top R&I directions stemming from the survey are:

• AI improvements for specific applications
• The nature of AI and human intelligence
• AI in medical applications
• Understanding cooperation between humans and AGI systems
• Ethical standards, AI regulatory sandboxes

To explore the full results of the Research4Futures survey we warmly invite you to consult the report below.

This report summarizes the results of a foresight process that started at the end of 2020 with the goal to develop reference foresight scenarios. Foresight scenarios are a tool to improve strategy development and decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. Recent events, such as the COVID pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. The reference scenarios presented in this report aim to help decision makers to increase the preparedness of their organisations under increasingly unpredictable circumstances.

Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge.

This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality.

This report, part of the FUTURINNOV project—a collaboration between the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and the European Innovation Council and SMEs Executive Agency—provides the second literature review of third-party reports, in a continuous workstream that surfaces periodically cross-sector emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations.
It summarises findings in a final selection of 30 signals and trends through an iterative methodology focused on their potential impact and novelty.
These findings are categorised and analysed across the 10 critical technology areas defined by the European Commission, as well as through other frameworks such as the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform and the EIC’s portfolios and specific taxonomy.
The report concludes with a cross-cutting analysis and offers recommendations to support the EIC’s strategic intelligence, particularly in prioritising innovation funding.
Additionally, it aims to raise awareness among EU policymakers about technological developments that may not yet be widely known.

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and breakthrough INNOVation) project, a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to bolster the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and anticipatory methodologies.
The workshop, held on 13 May 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technolo-gy readiness levels (TRLs), within the EIC's Advanced Materials portfolio and with a particular fo-cus on their use in the Energy sector.

Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their sig-nificance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics: accelerated material design/synthesis; biomaterials as part of the circular economy; advanced materials allowing new applications; closed loop battery recycling; innova-tions in catalysis; organic batteries for sustainable energy storage; design to performance bat-teries; design to cost batteries; and electrochemical water treatment. Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novelty and disruptive potential such as: circularity of materials (safe and sustainable by design); membranes / separators; process optimisation; 3D printing of electrode materials for energy and environmental engineering applications; and use of AI for the study of materials.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: governance and compliance frameworks; funding; collaboration and knowledge exchange; sustainable and efficient development; infrastructure and technological advancement and limita-tions; industry and market dynamics and constraints; innovation and risk management; supply chain and raw materials; and talent development.

Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges. 

The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans.

Welcome to "Global Futures of Climate”, the first Course in our series on Global Systems designed for individuals and organisations committed to facing global challenges and finding solutions.

This self-paced, online Climate Education Course is scientifically-based, and incredibly well researched to give you a deep understanding of our emerging world, providing a solid basis for you to build your personal, professional, and family futures. The innovative solutions offered align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Course Content includes 12 Lessons across 3 Modules: Climate Change, Energy Systems, and Ecosystem. There are two lessons in each, examining the challenges, and addressing the alternatives. 

The Course Content incorporates over 100 learning resources, including:

• 12 Lessons over 3 Modules: Climate Change, Energy Systems, Ecosystem.
• 12 Lessons over 3 Modules: Climate Change, Energy Systems, Ecosystem.
• Four lessons per Module, two on the challenges, two addressing the solutions.
• 12 Instructor videos (one per Lesson) to guide you through the Course Content and Resources .
• Over 40 expert videos (climate and ocean scientists, EC, UN, OECD, European Parliament, Carbon Brief, WWF, World Bank, Universities)
• Over 50 expert articles/reports (NASA, UN, IPCC, UNFCC, UNSDGs, State of the Planet, Blue Carbon Initiative, Greenpeace,
• Universities, UNDP, Global Commission for Adaptation, to name a few).
• 36 reflection questions to journal your progress.
• 60 fun quiz Qs to test knowledge gained.
• Certificate of Completion.

This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Center (JRC), the European Commissions's science and knowledge service.

It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. This report is based on research of the JRC. It does neither include any information or data collected in the context of the EU Observatory of Critical Technologies, nor does it prejudge the future work of the Observatory. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 

FAO’s Office of Innovation is working with partners on an FAO Chief Scientist initiative on Foresight on emerging agrifood technologies and innovations, aligned with the UN 2.0 process and the FOFA 2022: engaging all key actors of agricultural innovation systems in the foresight on emerging technologies and innovations to better prepare for alternative futures, feeding it into anticipatory action, and convening the global community for constructive dialogue and knowledge exchange. The aim is to support policymakers, investors and innovation actors in their approaches and decision-making. The study assesses a selection of technologies and innovations, which potentially could be of paramount importance in addressing agrifood challenges until 2050, as well as the most important trends and drivers that will influence the emergence of agrifood technologies and innovations and their triggers of change, including some regional aspects. The goal is also to build plausible future scenarios for the evolvement of the emerging technologies and innovations in the future with the time horizon of 2050 to inform future-oriented policymaking. The report is built with inputs from a multistakeholder Delphi survey and online workshops with experts.

The chemical industry is a significant contributor to the EU’s economy. It is simultaneously instrumental to the green and digital transition and exposed to its effects. A steady supply of (green) chemicals is required to deploy renewable energy generators, insulate Europe’s building stock and create reusable and recyclable consumer goods. On the other hand, chemical synthesis is an energy-intensive process inherently dependent on carbon-based feedstock (currently derived almost exclusively from fossil fuels). In addition, chemistry is a global industry with international value chains, where the EU both collaborates and competes with other countries for materials, knowledge and skills. Transforming the European chemical industry into a sustainable motor for the green and digital transition will require investments in infrastructure, assets and skills. Focus should be placed on chemicals that are crucial to this Twin Transition, Europe’s resilience, or both. The long lead time required for the deployment of infrastructure and the development of skills means that such investments must be made now to achieve targets set for 2050. In connection with these issues, the report at hand aims to give insights into a number of value chains that are strategic to EU economy. It considers which chemicals and innovations are vital to transforming these value chains as well as rendering them more resilient and future-fit. To this end, a participatory workshop-based foresight approach was implemented to provide a unique set of insights from stakeholders and translate them into actions and policy recommendations.

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and breakthrough INNOVation) project, a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to bolster the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and anticipatory methodologies.

The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio.

Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics: quantum sensing; quantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics models; materials for quantum; Artificial Intelligence for quantum; error correction; solid-state scalability; quantum for Artificial Intelligence; quantum as a service – metacloud; and quantum computers. Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility.

This report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making.

This work that has led to this literature review (1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies, (2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report, (3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies (4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights (5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting.

By using the best publicly-available data to produce a harmonised internal database, along with an appropriate filtering and selection methodology, the authors aim to provide a support platform for future-oriented technology analysis of relevance for other EU policy-making initiatives.

Successfully managing the green and digital transitions is a crucial factor that could increase the resilience and strategic autonomy of the EU and shape its future. Yet digitalisation of agriculture and rural areas raises vital questions about winners and losers, costs, benefits, and long term implications.


This foresight exercise explores the interplay between digital transition, policies and the resilience of the agricultural sector and rural areas, against the backdrop of potential disruptive and transformative changes. The report presents the outcomes of this exploration, proposing building blocks for an effective EU digital transition strategy for agriculture and rural areas supported by a hands-on policymaker’s toolkit

The blog post reveals the goals and steps of the foresight process and explains how visioning can support transitions. 

In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers.
Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used
as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape
technological change.

In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory
intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning.

Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.
The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches
to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European
Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this
way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop.

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction.

The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.
Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives.

The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC.

Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, present leading challenges in policy-making nowadays. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks, emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policy-making and preparedness.

This report is a part of the “Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation” (ANTICIPINNOV) project, a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre with the European Innovation Council (EIC).

The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation trends and signals produced by public and private entities outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support innovation funding prioritisation. Other insights were extracted, namely those related with the scope of the EIC Programme Manager portfolios.

The second Mutual Learning Event (MLE) took place online on September 26, 2024, as part of Eye of Europe, a Horizon Europe project which aims to enhance the integration of foresight practices into Research and Innovation (R&I) policy-making across Europe and to nurture a vibrant, cohesive R&I foresight community that contributes significantly, as a collective intelligence, to shaping and guiding policy decisions.

The online MLE brought together fifty participants from diverse stakeholder groups: Eye of Europe partner organizations, the European Commission, R&I funding agencies, representatives of governmental bodies. The event, organized by Technology Centre Prague (TC), focused on the topic of policy oriented communication of foresight results. Group and plenary discussions in three interactive sessions were framed by expert presentations showcasing diverse practices in the application and communication of foresight.

Presentations:

• Michal Pazour (TC Prague, Czech Republic) introduced the Eye of Europe project and the context of this second Mutual Learning Event.
• Moderator of the event Lenka Hebáková (TC Prague, Czech Republic) followed up with an introduction to the event’s aims and agenda.
• Mikko Dufva (SITRA, Finland) – “Communicating foresight. From knowing it all to empowering change”. The presentation included three case studies: SITRA’s decade long experience with megatrends as a platform for dialogue, their work on weak signals as an invitation to broaden futures thinking in a “what if?” spirit and, finally, their efforts to empower others to define futures bottom-up, through small funding to diverse teams across Finland.
• “Communicating foresight in the European Commission” presented by Maia Knutti and Teodora Garbovan (EU Policy Lab, European Commission) brought insights into how, in the European Commission context, foresight is employed and linked with the policy cycle. Examples covered foresight content (e.g. Strategic Foresight Reports) and engagement tools (e.g. megatrends hub, scenario exploration system) that are serving different stakeholder groups across multiple channels.
• Bianca Dragomir (Institutul de Prospectiva, Romania) discussed a case study on embedding foresight into policy making in the context of developing the Strategy for Fishing and Aquaculture 2035 in Romania. Moreover, she shared about embedding foresight into both policy making and societal conversation, discussing two Foresight on Demand projects: Scenarios on “Transhumanist Revolutions” and foresight-meets-speculative-design project “Futures Garden”.
• Totti Könnölä (Insight Foresight Institute, Spain) shared about the Foresight on Demand project "European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe" that advanced several objectives: generating foresight intelligence, i.e. through forward-looking policy briefs; monitoring of foresight activities and providing support for exploitation (Horizon Futures Watch); laying the building blocks for a European foresight community supported by an online platform.
• Marie Ségur (Futuribles, France) presented a case study on “Future of social work in France to 2035-2050” and the methods employed throughout the process: using surveys to motivate engagement with futures thinking, scenario building that may inform strategic choices and guide towards a vision and, finally, communicating outcomes in a synthetic manner, that may contribute to a wider discussion around the topic.
• Eye of Europe project coordinator Radu Gheorghiu (UEFISCDI, Romania) shared previews of the upcoming upgrade of the futures4europe.eu platform, with its new look and extended features.
  
  
  
  This event is the second in a series of five MLEs planned in the project; the following event will be held in January 2025 also in an online format. All Eye of Europe MLEs are organized by Technology Centre Prague (TC), Eye of Europe partner and key Czech national think tank and academia based NGO with a rich experience with knowledge-based policy making support and (participatory as well as expert based) foresight activities.

The first Mutual Learning Event (MLE) took place on May 23, 2024 in Bratislava, Slovakia as part of the Horizon Europe project Eye of Europe, which aims to contribute to the maturing of a vibrant Research and Innovation (R&I) foresight community in Europe and to support the integration of foresight practices into R&I policy-making.

Forty participants from partner organizations and external representatives of ministries, governmental bodies, R&I funding agencies and the European institutions gathered in the premises of the Government Office of the Slovak Republic.

This MLE, organized by Technology Centre Prague (TC), focused on the identification of emerging needs and approaches in the practice of foresight for research and innovation. To this end, the MLE in Bratislava was structured along the following phases:

• Eye of Europe’s vision and main building blocks, presented by project coordinator Radu Gheorghiu
• The context and role of this MLE, and a brief overview of other mutual learning events that took place since 2020, presented by Michal Pazour 
• Showcasing preliminary results of the Stocktaking of the organisation of R&I Foresight activities in the European Research Area (ERA), by Simone Weske. The presentation highlighted key benefits of the R&I foresight activities, constraints and bottlenecks, as perceived by the survey respondents.
• Four country studies - Slovakia, Finland, Austria and Sweden - have brought interesting insights and comparisons related to R&I foresight uptake and potential for improvement:
  Slovakia: Research and Innovation System and the potential for R&I Foresight |Michal Habrman, Government Office of the Slovak Republic
  Finland: Finnish national foresight ecosystem | Juha Kaskinen, FFRC University of Turku Finland
  Sweden: Leading from the Future in Sweden | Joakim Skog, Vinnova Sweden
  Austria: R&I foresight | Christian Naczinsky, Austrian Ministry of Education
• Discussions in four participant groups on emerging functions and approaches of R&I foresight. Overall, the group discussions touched on the dynamics of R&I foresight demand and supply and on the diversification of tools and methods for establishing dialogue with policy-making.
  
  This video created by the event host, Výskumná a inovačná autorita (VAIA), offers a glimpse into the spirit of both the MLE and the R&I foresight masterclass that preceded it. The detailed outputs of the MLE will be published in a dedicated report.
  
  
  ***
  Five MLEs are planned in the project, with the following one being held online in September 2024. All Eye of Europe MLEs are organized by Technology Centre Prague (TC), Eye of Europe partner and key Czech national think tank and academia based NGO with a rich experience with knowledge-based policy making support and (participatory as well as expert based) foresight activities.
  

Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. 

Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. 

The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. 

The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA).

The CROSSEU project was launched in response to growing societal needs for effective climate action and stronger socio-economic resilience. As climate change continues to impact our world, it becomes crucial to understand and manage its complex effects. 

Objective(s)
CROSSEU aims to respond to increasing societal needs to reduce climate-damaging actions, adapt to the expected consequences, and increase socio-economic resilience.

The main ambition of the project is to provide a science based and ready to use decision support system built on enhanced understanding of the biogeophysical risks from climate change, and their socioeconomic impacts in Europe, fully co-produced and implemented with practice stakeholders to ensure its uptake, and support effective coping with sectoral and cross sectoral climate risks within the context of the European green transition.

It will do this by delivering a climate-sensitive framework, including a ready-to-use decision support system platform and technical recommendations, to inform investment decisions, cost-effective adaptation and mitigation options and policy response to climate change.

The project will contribute to advancing the understanding of the socio-economic risks and response options associated with climate change impact in Europe in different timeframes, including the post-COVID-19 societal-environmental transformation, and derive practical recommendations for political and societal action.

The solutions proposed are based on an extensive assessment of the socio-economic risks of climate change in a cross-sectoral hierarchical approach, based on storylines addressing key categories of climate hazards in different socio-economic sectors and climate change-sensitive areas across countries and European regions.

The project will offer a ready-to-use solution that integrates complex information from available climate risk data sets and non-climatic sectoral data collected during the project implementation and derived through modelling based on demand-driven climate-socio-economic pathways.

CROSSEU is designed to bridge the science-based information about the economic impacts of climate change, and the unique contributions of the project will be:

1. the quantification of costs of existent and emergent socio-economic risks and opportunities at NUTS3 level
2. an improved representation of adaptation within biogeophysical climate change risk
3. a better consideration of modelling uncertainties by identifying their nature, assessing their characteristics in
a systematic way to determine a better informed and robust decision-making. 

The project's foresight component is crucial for projecting how various climate impacts will unfold under different global pathways (RCP-SSP). By examining future scenarios, it allows decision-makers to anticipate and plan for the most critical challenges, helping societies prepare for the compounded effects of climate change across sectors. The focus on cross-sectoral linkages emphasizes the need for integrated, multi-dimensional strategies to address both immediate and long-term climate risks, while ensuring social equity and resilience.
Future scenarios involve identifying and evaluating highly vulnerable areas across Europe in terms of their exposure to climate change, sensitivity to its impacts, and adaptive capacity. It focuses on key sectors—such as biodiversity, health, agriculture, forests, and water—and examines how these areas are likely to experience intense climate changes, particularly extreme events, in the future (2030, 2050, 2100).

Outputs

• Enhance the modelling of mitigation and adaptation strategies in relation to projected bio-geo-physical processes and socioeconomic risks to different sectors for different time horizons (i.e. 2030, 2050 and 2100) considering both the individual characteristics and interactions between the various sectors
• Co-assess synergies conflicts and trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation strategies across different sectors regions
• Co-produce ready to use tools integrated in a science based decision support system for assessing the social and economic impacts of climate change, and support mitigation and adaptation options towards a climate resilient Europe
• Consolidate the European union's response to climate change challenges and social and economic impacts in the context of the transformation related to the post COVID-19 crisis and geopolitical challenges

Expected outcomes
1. the project delivers a science based and ready to use decision support system built on enhanced understanding of the biogeophysical risks from climate change, and their socioeconomic impacts in Europe, fully co-produced and implemented with practice stakeholders to ensure its uptake.
2. the project consistently contributes to enhancing the overall impact of the destination climate across the EU
3. the project facilitates an improved understanding of the nature and extent of physical risks climate change driven hazards and their socio economic impacts at different levels of warming with or without adaptation
4. CrossEU integrates social sciences and humanities perspectives and insights throughout its entire workflow, engaging stakeholders including representatives of communities or citizen groups, sectoral policymakers, businesses, the scientific community, and civil society, through the entire project cycle.

CROSSEU is an EU funded project, with UK partners funded by UKRI.

The Reference Foresight Scenarios report from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) summarizes the results of a foresight process that started at the end of 2020 with the goal to develop a set of reference foresight scenarios to support policymakers. Foresight scenarios are a tool to improve strategy development and decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. Recent events, such as the COVID pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. 

The reference scenarios presented in this report aim to help decision makers to increase the preparedness of their organisations under increasingly unpredictable circumstances. The scenarios are four plausible versions of how the world may look like in 2040 and what this would mean for Europe’s global standing. They are called Storms, End game, Struggling synergies, and Opposing views. They do not claim to predict or project how the future may look like but offer strategic reflections, which can serve as a compass for policymakers for navigating through unchartered territories of turbulence, uncertainty, ambiguity and novelty. These four geopolitical scenarios are called ‘Reference’ Foresight Scenarios because they represent a forward-looking framework that provides a reference for use in policymakers’ debates about potential futures.

Stress-testing policy options with the scenarios

The work with the reference foresight scenarios continued as a pilot process of stress-testing some policy options against a set of Reference foresight scenarios. The process was led by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and applied to a specific EU policy proposal on Standard Essential Patents. The process ran during the initial stage of the impact assessment process, but it was not an official part of it. The results of this pilot helped to understand which policy options are more or less robust and how they can be made more future-proof. The process also provided rich insights into what the challenges and opportunities of this approach are, and into how stress-testing can be further incorporated into EU policymaking. The report provides an example and serve as a guide for any future process of stress-testing policy options against foresight scenarios.

Collaborative research on the human capacity to understand, anticipate, prepare for, and embrace the future.

About Futures Consciousness

The futures consciousness concept and scale has been developed by researchers at the Finland Futures Research Centre (University of Turku) and University of Geneva, with help from other contributors. Teach the Future received a grant from the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) and the Prince Mohammad bin Fahd University (PMU) to adapt the Scale for use by young people, ages 12-18. The results of that grant are being submitted for publication by the partners. After that, the Scale will be available for use by schools and other organizations that work with youth. The details will be published on this page shortly.
Take the test.
The Five Dimensions of Futures Consciousness are:

• time perspective; the ability to be aware of the past, present and future, as well as the way events follow each other over time
• agency beliefs; basic sense of confidence that an individual has in their own ability to influence the external world
• openness to alternatives; abilities used to critically question commonly accepted ideas and influences an individual’s willingness to consider alternative ways of being and doing
• systems perception; the ability to recognize human and natural systems around us including groups, societies and ecosystems
• concern for others; relates to the degree to which an individual pursues favourable futures for a group beyond themselves
  

Our partners

Teach the Future collaborates with the University of Turku in Finland, the Finland Futures Research Centre and Digital Futures to research and promote the work in the context of education and (young) students. Sanna Ahvenharju, Matti Minkkinen and Fanny Lalot are the research experts that developed the futures consciousness concept and scale. 

Our activities

Teach the Future supports the de velopment of a scale matching the language and level of young people. This project is in collaboration with schools in the Netherlands, Italy, Turkiye, United States, and United Kingdom. And we thank our sponsor the Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd, Center for Futuristic Studies.
Next to this we support the testing. Erica Bol has wo rked with Martin de Wolf of the Master Learning and Innovation at the Fontys University of Applied Sciene. She designed a futures lesson program supporting the Master program and tested if the students futures consciousness improved. The students did a test before and after the lessons program. A paper on the project and results are published in FUTURES issue 12-2022.

Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S).

As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion.

The 24th edition of the International Futures Research Conference was not short of insightful keynotes, newly published studies, and constructive exchanges in the field of foresight for the sustainable management of natural resources.

The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies.

Eleven exciting topics have been selected by the Eye of Europe Consortium for Foresight Workshops to take place in the next year and a half.

This is a call for professionals working in foresight in the Nordic countries to join the discussion and to contribute and influence the development and formation of the Nordic Foresight Network.

Following the publishing of the Fourth Global Trends ESPAS report in April 2024, Futures4Europe had the pleasure of interviewing the editor and two co-authors of the report about their reflections and key trend insights throughout the foresight research and writing process. ESPAS, or the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, unites nine EU institutions and bodies to collaboratively identify and analyze medium- and long-term trends affecting the EU, informing policy-makers about their implications.

In a world where change is the only constant, strategic foresight is more critical than ever. The Tri-Scope Synthesis method offers a robust framework combining critical, futures and exponential thinking, equipping leaders and organizations with the tools to anticipate and influence their futures effectively.

The following recently published and upcoming reports and books shed light on future-oriented insights with a special focus on Portugal. These materials explore a range of topics, from economic development and technological innovation to environmental sustainability and social trends specific to the region. By delving into these resources, readers can gain a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities that Portugal may face in the coming years.

Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them.

Paulo Carvalho has been working in the field of futures and foresight for more than 25 years. On one hand, he is a professor in foresight, strategy and innovation at the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Lisbon. On the other hand, he founded a foresight company five years ago, IF Insight Foresight, focussing on consulting, horizon scanning and strategic intelligence, as well as other strategy and innovation projects. He talked to Futures4Europe about Insight Foresight’s recently developed tool ORION and how it could revolutionise foresight practices.

Exploring alternative futures addressing radical changes in society can help better prepare for future crises and strengthen the resilience of civil society today. This post builds on the brief resulting from one of eight Deep Dive Foresight Studies in the project ‘European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe’ conducted by the Foresight on Demand’ consortium for the European Commission. During the autumn of 2023, the core group identified factors of change and organised two scenario and one policy implications workshops also engaging experts from academia, business, and public administration around Europe. We aimed to assist policy-makers by devising four possible future scenarios in 2040 and by considering their implications for today.

A new policy brief explores alternative future outcomes for green skills and jobs in Europe 2050. Based on participatory workshops and a foresight deep dive, the policy brief presents four alternative scenarios and their implications for R&I policy.

The 8th Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop, which took place on 22 November 2023, served as a platform for insightful discussions centred around the topic of the future of civic resilience.

The sixth Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop explored futures of Big Tech in Europe. Contemporary societies increasingly rely on Big Tech for different functions, such as work, communication, consumption, and self-expression.

The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future.

The FUTURESILIENCE project has set out to strengthen European economic and social resilience through an enhanced ability to adapt and respond quickly to future crises. To reach this goal, the project sees Research and Innovation (R&I) playing a key role in building the capacity to anticipate, better prepare and be more flexible in crisis periods.

In the ever-evolving landscape of intellectual property rights (IPR), the intersection with cutting-edge technologies and global challenges has become a focal point for policymakers, industry leaders, and scholars alike. This article provides a comprehensive exploration of past, current, and upcoming efforts to shape the future of Intellectual Property Rights

Anselm Kamperman Sanders and Anke Moerland, Professors of Intellectual Property Law at Maastricht University, share their ‘expert-generated’ responses to prompts concerning the outlook of intellectual property regulation. The two coordinators of the Horizon 2020 European IP Institutes Network Innovation Society project (EIPIN-Innovation Society), completed in 2021, point to global trends and highlight how emerging challenges for IP regulation and innovation management are already on the table.

ReCreating Europe re-thinks copyright codes and the management of creativity in the digital era by looking at the interplay between copyright, access to culture, and fair representation of creators and users.

CREATIVE IPR traces the history of intellectual property rights in Europe to investigate how past battles and future challenges in IPR management for creative industries impact creators, businesses and consumers

In a world where the future often seems uncertain, how do local communities navigate the complexities of European policies to build a more resilient and equitable tomorrow? This is the intriguing question at the heart of RELOCAL, an EU-funded Horizon 2020 research project that ran between 2016 - 2021.

How can individuals practice critical thinking and effectively evaluate the credibility of sources in an age where information abounds but is not always accurate or truthful? Project CO-INFORM applied co-creation methods to develop verification tools with and for stakeholders such as journalists, policymak-ers, and citizens, to better prepare for situations in which the distinction between fact and fiction is not always evident.

A recent policy brief, ‘Futures of the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities in the European Union in 2035: Scenarios and policy Implications’, explores the regulatory, economic, and technological opportunities and ‘incentives’ for various types of criminal actors to penetrate the legal economy and derives policy implications for the EU and its member states.

The fifth online event in the series of Horizon Futures Watch dissemination workshops delved into the theme of the future of green skills and jobs. The importance of this topic and its relevance for the green transition was underlined by its many interpretations. Its definition is often difficult to grasp, as the meaning of ‘green’ is comparative and constantly reconfigured. The urgency of meeting the need for green skills, through workforce up-skilling and reskilling, in order to thrive in greener jobs in the future guided the workshop. A broad definition of green jobs was shared early on, taking into account (i) new and emerging green occupations; (ii) green and enhanced skills and knowledge occupations and (iii) green increased-demand occupations.

Social media provides a window into current debates, social issues and topics that are relevant to communities. This blog post summarises EUARENAS future-thinking work that used social media signals as its starting point to explore the future of democracy.

The interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities is a pressing concern for policymakers and law enforcement agencies (LEAs). This intricate issue was the topic of the workshop that took place on Wednesday, 11 October 2023, as part of the series of online workshops hosted by the Horizon Futures Watch activities.

Part of “decolonising” is to question one's own assumptions and asking questions to the ones in power. The term has a historical background that is broader than its metaphorical use. Futures Studies has been dealing with this topic in one form or another for over 50 years. This has brought about a rich body of work, including some thought-provoking and stimulating approaches and methods.

In the recently published brief ‘Futures of Science for Policy in Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications’, we explore practices and processes by which information should be exchanged between knowledge actors and policy-makers with the intention to produce scientifically informed policies in Europe. We can see an increasing prominence of science in many public debates and the increasing willingness of governments to mobilize scientific and other advice mechanisms in the context of public debate.

MOBI stretches the legal dimension, searching for normative responses to Big Tech’s composite power threats to free market competition and European democratic values.

Hexa-X’s 6G flagship research is shaping the design of European wireless technologies to be environmentally, socially, and economically sustainable, while ensuring competitiveness in the global market.

In the fast-moving realm of mobility, one fact stands out: the road to success requires new skills. To meet evolving customer needs, embrace cutting-edge technologies, and fulfil environmental commit-ments, the transport sector is turning to automation for sustainable, cost-effective, and inclusive mobility solutions. However, the interplay between automation, reskilling, and sustainability is more complex than meets the eye.

A successful shift to a circular economy requires multidisciplinary skillsets that integrate both business and technology aspects. However, circular economy or sustainability practices are not often seen as competitive advantages for companies. The ConnectedFactories project focussed on devising potential pathways to digital manufacturing, including circular economy from a broader perspective.

In a world pervaded by the rapid entrance and development of new technologies, the pace at which ethical concerns are addressed is not always in sync. TechEthos, a Horizon 2020 project, wants to facili-tate “ethics-by-design” in order to push forward ethical and societal values into the design and develop-ment of new and emerging technologies at the very beginning of the process.

Project INNOPATHS explores different forward-looking scenarios leading to a completely decarbonised Europe by 2050. How attainable are these pathways and what are the skills in demand?

The 'Horizon Scanning – Tips and Tricks.' publication provides an insightful step-by-step support on how to run an effective horizon scan - and how to address underlying biases while doing so.

This blog post summarizes the dissemination event held for the 'Futures of Science for Policy in Europe ' project.

This blog post summarizes the dissemination event held for the 'Futures of using nature in rural and marine Europe in 2050' project.

This blog post summarizes the dissemination event held for the 'Future of Social Confrontations' project.

Merging Design Futures and Art Thinking approaches for responsible, sustainable and future-proof innovation.

The immense social and technological evolution of the Anthropocene continues transforming the Earth’s surface and its dynamics through extensive (mis-)use of its resources, both on the land and in the sea. These challenges were addressed in the Deep Dive on rural and marine areas in Europe in 2050. We present here the four scenarios developed.

The immense social and technological evolution of the Anthropocene continues transforming the Earth’s surface and its dynamics through extensive (mis-)use of its resources, both on the land and in the sea. These challenges were addressed in the Deep Dive on rural and marine areas in Europe in 2050. We present here policy implications drafted based on the four scenarios developed.

Social confrontations signify the struggle about how we want to shape our futures. Rooted in different narratives represented by different social groups they are often competing for the sovereignty of interpretation of what a particular future may look like and how we are to achieve it. Social confrontations are not a singular phenomenon; instead, we live in a world of multiple social confrontations, and they co-exist, overlap, and compete. The divides social confrontations create can go across all spheres of life: education, care, health, nutrition, energy, mobility, communication, race, gender, political power, migration, etc. This blog post explores how these developments are likely to impact the futures of democracy in Europe. To this end, we present four scenarios that chart diverging pathways on how social confrontations could evolve in the next 15 years under various drivers and trends and what role they could play for the democratic development in the EU. The four scenarios discuss various development paths - they are intended to explore diver-gent possibilities and do not always depict a preferable future.

Under Pl@ntNet’s polar star, GUARDEN brings citizen science and predictive machine learning together to support decision-making in biodiversity conservation.

Future thinking capacity-building initiatives like PHIRI (https://www.phiri.eu/) invite policymakers to lend their ears to extreme and value-driven scenarios in post-pandemic population health.

SPROUT empowers cities to face urban transformation and disruptive innovation in sustainable mobility through the co-creation of resilient mobility policies.

With the rise of new digital technologies, crime is evolving in new and unpredictable directions. To re-duce their impact, it is becoming increasingly vital to anticipate their course.

ALIGNER aspires to rally European stakeholders anxious about AI's role in law enforcement. The project's goal is to create a unified front to identify strategies that will not only bolster the strength of law enforcement agencies through AI but also ensure public benefit. But how far into the future is it useful to look?

The world of hybrid threats presents a complex and ever-evolving landscape where traditional and non-tradi-tional methods intertwine. With the rise of these multifaceted challenges, safeguarding the integrity of European democracies has become an urgent imperative. Initiatives like EU-HYBNET (https://euhybnet.eu/) aim to enhance preparedness and to establish a European network to counter hybrid threats.

I very much enjoyed the Luxembourg Strategy event on 5 June 2023 presenting its draft vision for the Economy in 2050. Here is a country leading the way by setting out how to reach a zero-carbon future.

The Inspire project has been running at MOMus since 2012. In a fascinating anarchic creative environment, young artists are invited to create original artworks in one week under the guidance of an established artist. At the same time, curators are invited to set up the exhibition just hours before the official opening.

Street protests are just one aspect of social conflict, but often one of the first that come to mind. Despite the growth of online activism, street demonstrations are as significant as ever.

The online workshop on October 18–19, 2021, was the first in a series of interactive encounters involving foresight experts and practitioners from both EU services and the Member States. It focussed on exploring future dimensions and elements of contextual developments that may have important repercussions for EU R&I policies in general, and the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe in particular. An overarching goal of the workshop, as well as the series of interactive meetings, was to provide initial impetus for a broad and in-depth discussion on the big picture and framework conditions for EU R&I policymaking.

Nobody wants to die early. The desire to stay healthy and to have a long-lasting life is enormous. At first glance, it seems as if the increasing number of older people in the EU is in accordance with that. When having a closer look at that trend, three main factors seem to contribute to an overall older population: a generally increased life expectancy, a modern, readily accessible medical system, healthier lifestyles, and low birth rates. Migration is a counter-trend to the ageing society, as the majority of migrants to the EU are young families. This fact, however, does not substantially diminish the absolute number of older people in the EU. The potential consequences are diverse. Although people get older while being healthier, it is likely that the cost of health care will rise, putting an extra burden on the health insurance system. Hence, we might have to expect a clear social divide: Will only rich people be able to afford to get old? Or are the additional health-related costs going to be shifted to younger generations? Will the state have to step in?

What types of EU R&I policies would be effective in the years to come? How shall these policies help us explore and respond to the uncertainties of the future?
Finding answers to these questions requires first of all imagining the context, in which future EU R&I policies might be situated. For doing this, we need to explore developments both at global level and within the European Union.

Making use of the four “Imaginaries for a Sustainable Europe[1] in 2050”presented by the European Environment Agency and the Eionet[2]

A proposal for a methodology to identify Megatrends and Grand societal challenges with a significance for Research and Innovation in the Czech Republic

The concept of the global commons refers to resource domains that fall outside national jurisdiction, to which all have access, including high seas, airspace, outer space and cyberspace. Given the growing significance of these domains and related resources for states and other global and local players across a range of purposes, defining the global commons concept has become more complex.

Hydrogen is „just“ an elementary molecule consisting of two hydrogen-atoms. Why is there so much fuss about this simple molecule that even a whole economy should or could be built upon it? The reaction of hydrogen (H2) with oxygen releases a lot of energy while forming pure water. In the other direction, water can be divided into hydrogen (H2) and oxygen with the help of electricity (there are of cause also other hydrogen building reactions mostly built on fossil fuels/biomass); this is simple chemistry. Compared to fossil fuels, water is nearly unlimited on the planet.

This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, Prof. Benjamin Sovacool, together with the other members of the expert team, are developing, among others, this 'technological fix' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'green dream' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

This autumn, experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'coalition of sustainable communities' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

In this blog post (https://www.futures4europe.eu/post/hydrogen-economy-in-europe-2040), I raised the first set of questions relevant to our scenario process. Meanwhile, we had a series of interviews with our experts, drafted a list of influencing factors and defined the scope of the scenarios.

This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'deepening divisions' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

Global commons have been traditionally defined as those parts of the planet that fall outside national jurisdictions and to which all nations have access. International law identifies four global commons, namely the High Seas, the Atmosphere, the Antarctica and the Outer Space (1). These resource domains are guided by the principle of the common heritage of mankind. Resources of interest or value to the welfare of the community of nations – such as tropical rain forests and biodiversity - have lately been included among the traditional set of global commons as well, while some define the global commons even more broadly, including science, education, information and peace. To incorporate the potential for overuse by some at the expense of others, they can also include the atmosphere, land, ocean, ice sheets, a stable climate and biodiversity (2).

The project “S&T&I for 2050” is structured around five intertwined tasks:

“S&T&I for 2050” aims at broadening the focus of STI to encompass multiple conceptualisations of human-nature relations. To do this, a framework was constructed around the concept of ecosystem performance as driver of STI, instead of human performance. This places the attention on the flourishing of ecosystems that is deeply connected to human needs and wellbeing.

There are an estimated billions of tonnes of strategic minerals such as nickel, cobalt and copper, lying on the ocean’s floor. Technological advance, financial viability, and regulatory frameworks are slowly aligning to permit deep-sea mining (DSM). While many rejoice in these developments, a variety of actors are calling for a moratorium on the nascent industry. Most notably, the European Commission released a Joint Communication stating that not enough knowledge about the risks of DSM is available and that more research is to be conducted to make DSM sustainable[i]. With deep-sea mining closer than ever to becoming a reality on the one hand, and calls for a moratorium on the other hand, it is important to discuss future directions of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) for a flourishing deep-sea ecosystem.

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research Since hydrogen energy, in particular green hydrogen, is increasingly regarded as an important energy carrier in the EU's transition strategies towards a carbon-neutral future, questions concerning both the shape and size of a hydrogen economy need to be asked now. Green hydrogen, it is assumed, can play a significant role in the de-carbonization of high-energy-intensive industries and (some means of) transport as it can both deliver and store a tremendous amount of energy. For hydrogen energy to be sustainable - in other words, for it to be "green" - it must be produced from renewable energy sources, such as wind or solar. However, since at least in some EU countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, the potential of renewable energy production is limited in the sense that it won't be able to meet projected green hydrogen demands, policymakers are increasingly looking to establish international partnerships to produce green hydrogen outside the EU and import it for national use - with a particular focus on countries in the Global South.

What could a European energy system that includes hydrogen look like in 2040 in the context of different global, political, economic and social constellations in and around the continent?

The transition to renewable energy in Europe has evolved dynamically since the turn of the century. The share of renewable energy in the European Union more than doubled between 2004 and 2022. Nevertheless, renewable energy represents only 22 percent of overall energy consumption and 37 percent of electricity generation in the EU. In other words, Europe still has a long way to go, even when it comes to the relatively easy task of converting its electricity production to renewables.

To be of relevance to energy, green hydrogen and related technologies need to be scaled up hugely. To reach such a mass market, a low-cost clean-hydrogen supply must be available. However, to lower the price of hydrogen, much larger H2-markets and volumes are needed. The scale and the cost (of green hydrogen) go hand in hand. But they also form a classical Chicken and Egg problem, which many now successful clean energy technologies have likewise faced in the past and managed to overcome.

by AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Center for Innovation Systems and Policy The Russian invasion of Ukraine has turned the post-cold war world order upside down, and we are witnessing new global power constellations, block-building, and uncertainties that affect not only issues of military, deterrence, and defense but also the global economy, prosperity, and the social situation of the people. In the midst of this turmoil, the EU is confronted with finding a proper position and redefining its policies, its foreign, as well as internal relations. There is a chance for a proactive new neighborhood policy. Will the EU seize the momentum?

The answer is probably, a classic: "it depends". Hydrogen is the smallest and lightest molecule in the world. It is about eight times lighter than methane. There's a lot of methane leakage around the world. And by "a lot", I really mean a lot. Satellite imagery by the European Space Agency collected data that proves there is significantly more leakage in the atmosphere than official estimates. And methane has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere (Source: Environmental Defense Fund - EDF). Some of this methane leakage is due to sheer industry negligence (oil and gas companies have been proven to do routine gas flaring), but also to bad casings, old pipes, and all sorts of infrastructure mishaps that are bound to happen in any industry. Now imagine how much easier is for hydrogen - a much lighter molecule than methane - to escape and leak, particularly when we blend it with natural gas in existing pipelines, as is the case in the plans of many countries in Europe - including Romania, my home country.

National governments and multi-lateral organizations like the European Union, OECD, and UNESCO have identified values and principles for artificial narrow intelligence and national strategies for its development. But little attention has been given to identifying the beneficial initial conditions for future Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The initial conditions for AGI will determine if Artificial Super Intelligence will evolve to benefit humanity or not. Even if international agreements are reached on the beneficial initial conditions for AGI, a global governance system will still be needed to enforce them and oversee the development and management of AGI. Since it may take ten, twenty, or more years to create and ratify an international AGI treaty and establish a global AGI governance system, and since some experts believe it is possible to have AGI within ten to twenty years, it is therefore important to work on these issues as soon as possible. The most critical AGI issues are its initial conditions and global governance. These issues are important for governments to get right from the outset. The Millennium Project is currently exploring these issues. https://www.millennium-project.org/transition-from-artificial-narrow-to-artificial-general-intelligence-governance/

Sharing lessons learned in foresight practices and experiences is important for the exchange for an impactful foresight community. The Mutual Learning Exercise can help foster community building and foresight capacities in different member states.

Proposed scenarios about the future should come with a pinch of salt. Without being perfectly accurate, they help prepare policymakers for better or worse. The REGROUP project funded under the Horizon Europe programme aims to advise the EU on how to address post-pandemic policy and institutional challenges by analysing the societal and political consequences of COVID-19 and considering the normative implications of the pandemic.

Renewing rural generations, via the provision of green jobs and accessible farming enterprises, has powered the EU-sponsored RURALIZATION project looking to promote synergies between agriculture policymakers and local rural communities in painting attractive rural futures.

Considering prevalent trends, such as population growth, increasing demand for animal protein, land use change, and resource scarcity, a blueprint for future crops may help prioritise sustainable and efficient agriculture practices, as well as improved food systems. CropBooster-P, funded under the Horizon 2020 Programme, is a project that aimed to find a solution to this question by looking into innovative crop-breeding technologies for improving climate adaptability, resource use efficiency, yield, and quality.

The key to biodiversity’s preservation? Fostering collaborations between the scientific community and policymakers by using a future-oriented mindset.

A journey in participatory democracy through challenges (and opportunities) of future-thinking approaches.