This project consists of two domains:

Development and enrichment of key factor descriptions for the NRC FLIS project ‘Scenarios for a sustainable Europe in 2050’

• The aim of the contract was to support the EEA and its network in developing and enriching a robust set of descriptions of 30 key factors influencing sustainable development in Europe. These key factors were used in developing and communicating scenarios as part of the EEA-Eionet project ‘Scenarios for a sustainable Europe in 2050’.

Development of scenarios and related communication tools for the EEA-Eionet project ‘Scenarios for a sustainable Europe in 2050’

• The purpose of the project was to support the EEA and its network in developing two robust and high-quality related sets of scenarios: a set of normative scenarios presenting sustainable futures for Europe in 2050 and a set of descriptive scenarios outlining possible visions of the global context in 2050. These sets of coherent and compelling narratives, complemented by visualisations and other communication products, were used in developing and communicating scenarios as part of the EEA-Eionet project ‘Scenarios for a sustainable Europe in 2050’.

The project page and results are a vailable in the EEA websites.

FOD EEA Urban Mobility 1:

The aim of the project was to scan the horizon for emerging issues that may affect what urban mobility might look like in Europe in 2050. Furthermore, implications of these possible developments for air quality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, noise, land use, and in turn for the health and well-being of the inhabitants of European cities were explored. The emerging issues identified contributed to some of the key questions that were identified as part of the EEA’s urban Sustainability Conceptual Framework, such as how cities can look past the personal car era and reimagine their streets as pathway for recovery, built around walking, biking, and public transit. The outcomes of the project included six factsheets on emerging issues related to urban mobility and their impact on health and the environment, including trends, uncertainties and impacts for environment, health and related policy making, including sources of evidence, as well as three possible narratives with visuals on urban mobility in 2050, where two or more of the emerging issues are combined in different but meaningful ways, and a final short report describing the methodology and references used.

FOD EEA Urban Mobility 2:

The purpose of the project was to strengthen the outputs of the previous contract (European urban mobility 2050), which covered a horizon scan for emerging issues that may affect what urban mobility might look like in Europe in 2050. Specifically, the study produced a strengthened and enriched version of the six emerging issues identified and developed in the previous contract, two additional emerging issues identified as part of the previous contract but not developed, namely ‘New and upcoming business models for delivery and mobility‘, and ‘Combination of V2X and IoT’, mind-map representations of the three narratives identified in the previous contract illustrating the key elements, connections and implications on health and environment at three spatial levels: individual, city, and regional / network of cities, and a 4-page briefing that summarises the process and outputs from this contract and the previous one. The briefing was designed to inform EEA’s audience of the ongoing forward-looking work associated with urban mobility.

The foresight study focused on school education (ISCED levels 1-3) in the EU. It aimed at:

• developing four scenarios, describing potential alternative futures of the school education in the EUby 2040.
• identifying the preferred scenario developments.
• providing recommendations on the policy measures that could be introduced, or strengthened, tohelp school education in the EU move towards the preferred future scenario.

The development of the scenarios was based on the factors of change1, identified through desk research, horizon scanning, and extensive stakeholder involvement. More than 80 European Commission officials, school education experts, representatives of teacher, student and headmaster umbrella organisations, and other stakeholders, from across the EU, contributed to the study, by participating in four workshops, a Delphi survey, and interviews.

A foresight study on school education (ISCED levels 1-3) in the EU, which aimed at developing four scenarios, describing potential alternative futures of the school education in the EU by 2040, identifying the preferred scenario developments and providing recommendations on the policy measures that could be introduced, or strengthened, to help school education in the EU move towards the preferred future scenario.

This foresight study's purpose was to anticipate future challenges for consumer policy in the context of the twin transition and the short- and long-termed impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behaviour, consumption patterns and markets in Europe with a time horizon of 2025 to 2030. In order to find answers to the complex questions of uncertain future developments the foresight team combined several approaches of foresight for anticipatory governance. This includes a systematic horizon scanning of existing reports for weak signals of change in all fields of society such as societal developments, technology, economy, environment, policy and values. The literature and data based information collection was combined with explorative exercises like a scenario development, a visioning process and a gap analysis to develop new ideas for policy options. The engagement of stakeholders and experts on consumer policy was crucial throughout the whole process, in particular for the analysis of influencing factors, alternative scenarios and suggestions for policy actions. 

With its anticipatory and exploratory nature, the study was a pilot project for the implementation of comprehensive strategic foresight in DG JUST. Accordingly, the project was also used to build capacity for foresight in dealing with future uncertainty. Representatives of several departments of the DG actively participated in the workshops in all four steps of the process and thus got to know and tested the methods of foresight. These include participatory and qualitative foresight methods such as horizon scanning and scoping for identifying key future trends, scenario and vision development for exploring different possible futures and identifying challenges, and roadmapping approaches for developing options for action. Another important
element of the study was the intensive involvement of stakeholders in all steps of the process, especially in the development and discussion of future scenarios and in the development of new policy ideas.

The DG can use the various results of the Foresight process for the further future-proof implementation of the New Consumer Agenda. The trends examined for the scenarios can be reviewed at regular intervals with regard to new developments and impacts on consumption and consumer protection. The scenarios provide an overview of possible futures of consumption in Europe after the COVID-19 pandemic and serve for exploring the scope of possible developments. The visions for consumer protection and empowerment, especially of vulnerable groups and consumers with special needs, summarise stakeholders' expectations for consumer policy in the next 10 years. The action fields prioritised together with stakeholders for consumer policy in and after the pandemic and the ideas for policy actions can now be used by the EC to set its own priorities and develop ideas into concrete actions. The EC may not want to take up all the ideas presented here, but the suggestions can provide guidance on which issues are of high importance from a stakeholder perspective in the COVID-19 crisis.

The EU introduced missions as a new instrument in Horizon Europe. Mission Boards were appointed to elaborate visions for the future in five Areas: Adaptation to Climate Change, Including Societal Transformation; Cancer; Healthy Oceans, Seas, and Coastal and Inland Waters; Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities; Soil Health and Food. Starting in autumn 2019, five Foresight on Demand projects supported them with foresight expertise and methodology. This report provides the work in support of the Mission Board on Soil Health and Food. Adopting a long-term perspective, the project first contributed to better understand the drivers, trends and weak signals with the most significant potential to influence the future of soil health and food. With the Mission Board, three scenarios for 2040 were sketched. In the final step, system-thinking knowledge was applied to identify concepts, solutions, and practices able to promote systematic change in the sector.

Stories and narratives are a powerful tool of Futures Literacy and Futures Thinking. In recent years, they have been fighting for attention next to scenarios and trend research within the Foresight discipline, and there is a good reason for it. Adding up to 21 stories, the narratives in this booklet deal with the planetary emergency, the existential threat of climate change and the biodiversity crisis, which are driving the European Green Deal. They were built on ideas by people from all around the world. Some were experts in the field, some purely engaged citizens with a story to tell. Stories from 2050 range from plausible sci-fi stories of the future to fictional fairy tales that provoke abstract thinking. Some stories are hopeful; others are concerning. They are going to stimulate your thinking by providing different perspectives and layers of understanding.