Some studies have recently indicated that the number of countries classified as democracies are decreasing whereas authoritarian regimes are at the forefront. And also within our societies are we increasingly witnessing disturbing signs of violent confrontation on the streets and verbal hate speech in the so called social media. In some European states we are witnessing policy-makers and citizens embracing elements of illiberal democracy and authoritarianism. How do these trends impact the future of democracy in the EU, in Europe? What are the perspectives of living together in a united Europe that is facing severe pressure from such megatrends as the climate crisis, military conflict and migration from inflicted countries, big tech controlling social media? How can we ensure that the project of democracy in the context of European peace after WWII will continue in the future? For the next 60 years? How can we give other actors a voice that we have neglected so far such as nature and future generations? What aspects for research and innovation policy arise from these developments?

On behalf of Horizon Europe project “Eye of Europe” we are offering a half-day online workshop for a maximum of 60 participants. The “Eye of Europe” project features a series of Pilot workshops during 2025 to explore future prospects for foresight and R&I policy.

This is the short English-language Policy Brief from the research project Foresight and Future Generations in Law-Making (FORGE). FORGE examined issues of future-regarding lawmaking in an interdisciplinary manner, combining expertise on futures studies, political science, and jurisprudence. The aim of the study was to analyse the status of future generations and their rights in current legislative processes, and to map and compare practices for foresight and consideration of future generations in different political contexts, nationally and internationally. The purpose of the project was to increase understanding on i) how future generations can be better taken into account in policymaking; ii) how foresight can be better utilised in lawmaking. 

The FORGE-project was unique – there had not previously been a study with a similar scope in Finland and comparable international examples are, to the best knowledge of the authors, extremely rare. FORGE supported the preparation of the second part
of the Government Report on the Future. The project was funded by the Government’s analysis, assessment and research activities (VN TEAS) and was conducted during 1/2022–11/2022 by researchers of the University of Turku, Åbo Akademi University and Tampere University.

Findings:

From an international comparison, Finland already has an advanced national foresight system and can be regarded as a pioneer in futureregarding policymaking. However, there is still room for improvement in terms of using foresight and considering future generations as a part of lawmaking. Such improvement could be achieved by developing and upgrading the existing institutions and practices and by making more incremental changes in practices, modes of interaction, and attitudes. For example, foresight should be conducted more as a continuous activity, and future generations’ interests and rights should be considered more systematically in legislative processes, while acknowledging the plurality of future interests.

Development proposals:

Full lenght-report available in Finnish

In addition to the 12-page Policy Brief summarising the FORGE projects' finding in English, The Prime Minister's Office has published the full 203-page report in Finnish. This can be found here below.

The research project Foresight and Future Generations in Law-Making (FORGE) examined issues of future-regarding lawmaking in an interdisciplinary manner, combining expertise on futures studies, political science, and jurisprudence. The aim of the study was to analyse the status of future generations and their rights in current legislative processes, and to map and compare practices for foresight and consideration of future generations in different political contexts, nationally and internationally. The purpose of the project was to increase understanding on i) how future generations can be better taken into account in policymaking; ii) how foresight can be better utilised in lawmaking. FORGE’s conceptual and analytical structure is pictured in the figure 1.

The FORGE-project is unique – there has not previously been a study with a similar scope in Finland and comparable international examples are, to the best knowledge of the authors, extremely rare. FORGE supported the preparation of the second part of the Government Report on the Future. The project was funded by the Government’s analysis, assessment and research activities (VN TEAS) and was conducted during 1/2022–11/2022 by researchers of the University of Turku, Åbo Akademi University and Tampere University.

I had the privilege to participate in a democracy conference and hackathon in Moldova in October, just days before the country’s pivotal EU referendum and presidential elections. Organized by the Alliance of Democracies Foundation in collaboration with local partner Yep Moldova and supported by USAID and the New Democracy Fund, the event was a hub of creativity, democratic innovation and a dose of foresight.

A journey in participatory democracy through challenges (and opportunities) of future-thinking approaches.

The establishment of responsible innovation requires four key institutional changes. First, innovation must be value-driven. Second, an ethics of co-responsibility among stakeholders must be implemented. Third, innovation should be made directional and manageable. Fourth, market failures need to be addressed to facilitate necessary transformative changes, especially with regard to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This research project will take into account the evolution of Living Labs and various specialized Living Labs (e.g., urban labs, social labs, and responsible Living Labs) to assess to what extent they address these institutional requirements. On this basis, the concept of a new dedicated Living Lab: a Responsible Research and Innovation Lab for Engineering Practices will be introduced. Subsequently this dedicated Living Lab will be operationalised on a theme from the engineering sciences. We will consider innovations stemming from digital tech for Health issues, additive manufacturing or other engineering pratices. We will deploy participatory foresight, to enable a form of anticipatory governance of emerging new innovations.

This dedicated ling lab is contextualised in a broader context of a deliberative democracy: Living Labs can be seen as spaces for Organisational Learning and Collective Experimentation:Living Labs: ‘real-life test and experimentation environments that foster co-creation and open innovation among the main actors of the Quadruple Helix Model, namely: Citizens, Governmental Organisations, Industrial organisations and Academia’ (ENoLL 2024)It operationalises an important feature of Responsible Research and Innovation: Making stakeholders co-responsible and mutually responsive to each other by engaging them in an open co-creation/ co-enquiry process. (among other on the basis of participatory foresight of emerging technologies and innovations)The idea of 'openess' and 'mutual reponsiveness' as values of actors and institutions will also be subject of analysis.Science and innovation can be better fostered in an open, democratic society than in other types of societies. The norm of civic participation in a ‘democracy’ is a lived ideal for citizens, just as the norm of ‘communalism’ is a lived ideal for the scientific community. Both norms presuppose the values of ‘openness’ and 'mutual responsiveness' among scientist and citizens.This highlights ‘openness’ not as a prescriptive norm but as a value of the institution of science. Simultaneously, ‘openness’ is also an institutional value of a democracy. However, science and democracy are dependent on the extent to which scientist and citizens engage on the basis of these norms. How can we best encourage and incentivise those?

Democracy across Europe has experienced immense challenge, change and uncertainty in recent years (Canal 2014; European Commission & Merkel; 2019) - from the rise of populism to decreasing levels of public trust in governance institutions and processes, to the war in Ukraine. Set against the backdrop of these issues, EUARENAS has been investigating how cities and urban spaces can strengthen legitimacy, identification and engagement within the democratic public sphere. Specifically, EUARENAS has been exploring how participation and deliberation in democracy and decision-making can be increased, and how voices and communities who are excluded from such arenas can be more actively involved.

Foresight is one of the research strands present in EUARENAS. In this project, foresight is both a tool for understanding democratic innovations as they emerge, and for engaging citizens and other actors in such innovations within the participatory and deliberative realms. Mixed method approaches to foresight that incorporate a diversity of activities such as media discourse analysis, lived experience storytelling, social media analysis, three horizons mapping, driver-mapping, scenario and visioning exercises and policy stress- testing have been used in EUARENAS to investigate and hypothesise over future trends and scenarios in participatory democracies. 

From this work, we propose the following recommendations for Cities wanting to strive towards more equitable local democracies:

1. Address structural barriers to participation
2. Build relationships of trust
3. Invest in formal and civic education
4. Make decisions for the long-term

A more equitable, inclusive local democracy landscape is not too far in the distance for us to conceive it being possible. In fact, the future is now – the seeds to create it are already being planted, they just need nurturing by:

• Scaling and mainstreaming existing pilot or niche practices that are working locally – whether that beparticipatory budgeting, citizen assemblies or other smaller-scale projects – so that these become thenew ‘status quo’
• Adopting test and learn approaches to promote experimentation and on-going learning – this will enableongoing innovation and be responsive to society's needs
• Finding ways to celebrate and connect-up the small changes that are taking place - this will help people see that progress is being made, even when it feels like things are changing too slow

The Eye of Europe (EoE) project has reached an important milestone: Using an interactive approach, the members of the consortium came up with eleven exciting topics that will be addressed in Foresight Workshops with experts, citizens, entrepreneurs, scientists, policymakers, journalists and many other stakeholder groups within the coming 16 months. In the workshops, Eye of Europe partners will apply both established and novel Foresight approaches to dive deep into topics of common interest to stakeholders across the European Research Area. These workshops will take place in cities such as Madrid, Prague, Berlin, Bucharest, Paris and Thessaloniki, as well as online.

The final set of topics for EoE pilot workshops is as follows:

• Democracy – a long term Project: This online workshop will gather domain experts to shed light on a large spectrum of future challenges to democracy.
• The Knowledge of our Civilisation(s) in 2040: In this two-day Berlin based workshop participants with diverse domain expertise will explore the future of knowledge in human civilisation in the face of multiple drivers of change.
• European Industrial Decarbonisation: This two-day workshop in Madrid will gather diverse stakeholders to debate alternative pathways of industrial decarbonisation for Europe in the face of different geopolitical scenarios.
• Emotion Ecosystems: This Bucharest based two-day workshop will investigate the impact of technologies like affective computing and brain-machine interface on individuals and collectives with different stakeholder groups.
• Democracy and Technology: In this workshop citizens in Prague will jointly reflect on democratic approaches to risks connected with new technologies and their impacts on various societal groups.
• Aging and Assisted Living Technologies: This workshop in Berlin with international research and policy actors is dedicated to future ways of integrating smart and digital technologies into assisted living and care for older adults.
• Fashion Futures: In two Thessaloniki based workshops citizens and domain experts will explore the future of sustainable fashion in interaction with values and identities both with a regional and international perspective.
• Public Policy and Change of Diets: In this workshop in Paris a diverse group of citizens will reflect on policy inroads into future pathways towards healthy and sustainable diets.
• Science and Conflicts: In this online workshop, experts and actors of the science system will jointly dive into possible implications of growing geopolitical tensions for science.
• Future of Knowledge and Emotions: This futures survey will provide input for the two interrelated topics the future of knowledge and the future of emotion ecosystems that will feed the respective workshops.
  
  
  These Eye of Europe Foresight pilot workshops have a twofold purpose.
  
  First of all, the workshops serve the project’s aspirations expressed by Eye of Europe coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, namely to nurture the “vibrant community of individuals engaging in a conversation about our collective future” and to fuel the “continuous loop of dialogue, learning and inspiration”.
  
  Secondly, by addressing topics of common interest to R&I actors across ERA and major R&I challenges, they aim to mobilise collective anticipatory intelligence. In particular, we hope to shed light on the evolution of research and innovation and its contribution to a wide range of important future questions.
  
  How did the team arrive at these topics?
  
  The topic generation process involved three major elements:
  
• Analysis of R&I strategy documents from a range of different EU countries
• interviews with R&I actors from different positions in ERA’s research and innovation ecosystem,
• and interactive discourse among EoE partner organisations.
  
  It was important to the topic identification team, led by Pier Francesco Moretti from CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche in Italy, not to remain at the surface of the challenges that are expressed in key documents but to dive deeper into underlying root causes and dynamics. So when in the document analysis, topics like energy, artificial intelligence, digitalisation, health and security emerged at top positions, we strived to identify crosscutting underlying aspects.

#OurFutures invites people across the EU to share their imagined futures.

The project supports and inspires a collective dialogue about the future of Europe and its visions for the future. 

We welcome your short story expressing what you would like to see in the Europe of the future, making explicit your hopes, aspirations, but also uncertainties.

The visions you and other citizens submit will be analysed and shared with EU policy makers. We will look for early signs of potentially important developments, persistent problems, novel and unexpected issues. These outcomes will serve to generate actual, future-oriented recommendations for EU action to build together the Europe that we want.

The future is a co-creation. Share your visions of tomorrow and join us in creating a narrative that inspires citizens, policymakers, and foresight experts:

• Write your future story and answer a few questions - share your preferred future with the rest of the world. Allow your vision to inspire others and fuel a meaningful conversation across Europe.
    
• Take a look at the #ourfutures dashboard - explore future visions shared by hundreds of contributors and check out stats and graphs that synthetise this rich content.