The EU Policy Lab is a space for cross-disciplinary exploration and innovation in policymaking. We apply collaborative, systemic and forward-looking approaches to help bringing the scientific knowledge of the Joint Research Centre into EU policymaking.

We experiment with the new, the unprecedented and the unknown. We seek to augment our understanding of the present, challenge and reinvent the way we think about the future.

The EU Policy Lab is also a mindset and a way of working together that combines stories and data, anticipation and analysis, imagination and action. We bring new practical and radical perspectives to tackle complex problems in a collaborative way. Together, we explore, connect and ideate to create better policies.

The Competence Centre on Foresight is part of the EU Policy Lab and supports EU policy making by providing strategic and future-oriented input, developing an anticipatory culture inside the European Commission, and continuously experimenting and developing different methods and tools to make foresight useful for decision making processes. 

The VERA project aimed to provide relevant strategic intelligence for the future governance and priority-setting of the research, technology, development and innovation (RTDI) system in Europe and for better adapting science, technology and innovation policy to the shifting global environment and upcoming socio-economic challenges. For this purpose VERA carried out an in-depth stocktaking of RTDI related forward looking activities in Europe and internationally and a thorough review of trends and drivers of long-term change of European RTDI governance. On the base of these insights VERA developed scenarios on the evolution of the European Research Area, assessed the critical issues for the ERA’s future capabilities emerging from these scenarios, explored subsequent strategic options and ultimately generated a set of policy recommendations for responsive and future oriented multi-level, multi-domain RTDI policy strategies.

VERA was conceptualised as a continuously progressing two-way communication process among ERA actor groups from society, industry, academia and policy across domains, levels and regions. It consisted of setting up a strategic conversation between these stakeholders that evolved through several carefully tailored stages in order to jointly discover shared visions and strategic options around the ERA’s future perspectives towards 2020 and far beyond. VERA has explored the gradual evolution following from current patterns of change – but has also explicitly embraced transformative and disruptive developments with a long-term horizon.

The VERA project was proposed by a consortium of ten internationally renowned institutes from 9 EU countries involving a team of more than 20 researchers with outstanding expertise both in terms of relevant knowledge and forward looking methodology and excellent contacts with RTDI stakeholders in Europe and the world.

This report summarizes the results of a foresight process that started at the end of 2020 with the goal to develop reference foresight scenarios. Foresight scenarios are a tool to improve strategy development and decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. Recent events, such as the COVID pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. The reference scenarios presented in this report aim to help decision makers to increase the preparedness of their organisations under increasingly unpredictable circumstances.

The Reference Foresight Scenarios report from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) summarizes the results of a foresight process that started at the end of 2020 with the goal to develop a set of reference foresight scenarios to support policymakers. Foresight scenarios are a tool to improve strategy development and decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. Recent events, such as the COVID pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. 

The reference scenarios presented in this report aim to help decision makers to increase the preparedness of their organisations under increasingly unpredictable circumstances. The scenarios are four plausible versions of how the world may look like in 2040 and what this would mean for Europe’s global standing. They are called Storms, End game, Struggling synergies, and Opposing views. They do not claim to predict or project how the future may look like but offer strategic reflections, which can serve as a compass for policymakers for navigating through unchartered territories of turbulence, uncertainty, ambiguity and novelty. These four geopolitical scenarios are called ‘Reference’ Foresight Scenarios because they represent a forward-looking framework that provides a reference for use in policymakers’ debates about potential futures.

Stress-testing policy options with the scenarios

The work with the reference foresight scenarios continued as a pilot process of stress-testing some policy options against a set of Reference foresight scenarios. The process was led by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and applied to a specific EU policy proposal on Standard Essential Patents. The process ran during the initial stage of the impact assessment process, but it was not an official part of it. The results of this pilot helped to understand which policy options are more or less robust and how they can be made more future-proof. The process also provided rich insights into what the challenges and opportunities of this approach are, and into how stress-testing can be further incorporated into EU policymaking. The report provides an example and serve as a guide for any future process of stress-testing policy options against foresight scenarios.

Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge.

This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality.

This report, part of the FUTURINNOV project—a collaboration between the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and the European Innovation Council and SMEs Executive Agency—provides the second literature review of third-party reports, in a continuous workstream that surfaces periodically cross-sector emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations.
It summarises findings in a final selection of 30 signals and trends through an iterative methodology focused on their potential impact and novelty.
These findings are categorised and analysed across the 10 critical technology areas defined by the European Commission, as well as through other frameworks such as the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform and the EIC’s portfolios and specific taxonomy.
The report concludes with a cross-cutting analysis and offers recommendations to support the EIC’s strategic intelligence, particularly in prioritising innovation funding.
Additionally, it aims to raise awareness among EU policymakers about technological developments that may not yet be widely known.

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and breakthrough INNOVation) project, a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to bolster the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and anticipatory methodologies.
The workshop, held on 13 May 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technolo-gy readiness levels (TRLs), within the EIC's Advanced Materials portfolio and with a particular fo-cus on their use in the Energy sector.

Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their sig-nificance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics: accelerated material design/synthesis; biomaterials as part of the circular economy; advanced materials allowing new applications; closed loop battery recycling; innova-tions in catalysis; organic batteries for sustainable energy storage; design to performance bat-teries; design to cost batteries; and electrochemical water treatment. Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novelty and disruptive potential such as: circularity of materials (safe and sustainable by design); membranes / separators; process optimisation; 3D printing of electrode materials for energy and environmental engineering applications; and use of AI for the study of materials.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: governance and compliance frameworks; funding; collaboration and knowledge exchange; sustainable and efficient development; infrastructure and technological advancement and limita-tions; industry and market dynamics and constraints; innovation and risk management; supply chain and raw materials; and talent development.

This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Center (JRC), the European Commissions's science and knowledge service.

It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. This report is based on research of the JRC. It does neither include any information or data collected in the context of the EU Observatory of Critical Technologies, nor does it prejudge the future work of the Observatory. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 

The foresight exercise by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) from 2022 listed 46 emerging and disruptive technologies relevant for space, defence, and related civil industries, which are of strategic importance for the European Union (EU). Throughout the process, participants focused on four future critical technologies that deserve particular attention: (i) quantum communications and cryptography; (ii) space platform; (iii) integrated photonics; and (iv) nuclear micro-reactors. These future critical technologies bear a high level of impact and a high probability of future EU dependency on others. For each one, the report includes a series of recommendations to address risks, challenges and future dependencies. 

Beyond the listing and analysis of key technologies, the authors summarised 10 clusters of topics related to technology development and adoption: (i) geopolitics; (ii) cooperation; (iii) investment; (iv) market; (v) skills and knowledge; (vi) ethical issues; (vii) regulations and standards; (viii) development of technology building blocks; (ix) twin transition and security of assets; and (x) data and communications.These insights can support further research and policy developments. The report concludes with a detailed explanation of the methodology applied and the results of intermediary phases.

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and breakthrough INNOVation) project, a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to bolster the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and anticipatory methodologies.

The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio.

Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics: quantum sensing; quantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics models; materials for quantum; Artificial Intelligence for quantum; error correction; solid-state scalability; quantum for Artificial Intelligence; quantum as a service – metacloud; and quantum computers. Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility.

This report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making.

This work that has led to this literature review (1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies, (2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report, (3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies (4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights (5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting.

By using the best publicly-available data to produce a harmonised internal database, along with an appropriate filtering and selection methodology, the authors aim to provide a support platform for future-oriented technology analysis of relevance for other EU policy-making initiatives.

The FUTURINNOV project run by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches. This is done through activities to identify funding priorities, inform programme design, contribute to policy feedback, and develop institutional governance. 

The main objectives are to:
• Provide short and medium-term future-oriented evidence-based advice on signals and trends of emerging technologies, breakthrough innovation, and investment patterns;
• Support the development of long-term EIC strategic intelligence, grounded in anticipatory, collective, and hybrid methods, towards knowledge transfer and capacity building; and
• Explore innovative anticipatory thinking and future-oriented methodologies to support EIC in its mission as a funding body and a knowledge- provider for policy design and implementation.
The project started in the beginning of the 2024 and will run until February 2025. Outputs of the FUTURINNOV project will include three literature reviews identifying and analysing signals of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations as well as findings from horizon scanning workshops.

Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 1

The report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with priority-setting and decision-making. The literature review

(1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies,
(2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report,
(3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies
(4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe 

Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights(5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC’s funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting.  

Read some insights from the authors on the blog. 

Eyes on the Future - Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence - Volume 2

The second volume of the literature review with 30 selected signals and trends that were considered particularly relevant to the 10 critical technology areas identified by the Commission. Some examples are:
• Neuromorphic chip optimised for energy efficient AI workloads
• Laser-equipped satellites for secure quantum communications
• Possibilities of microgravity bioreactors and 3D bioprinting for regenerative medicine
• Self-consuming rockets to reduce space debris and improve efficiency
• Potential to capture wasted 'reflected' energy from PV systems
• Preparation–free, adhesive skin patches to help people control robotic exoskeletons.

(Dis)Entangling the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects.
These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics:
•quantum computers
•quantum sensing
•quantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics models
•materials for quantum
•Artificial Intelligence for quantum
•error correction; solid-state scalability
•quantum for Artificial Intelligence
•quantum as a service – metacloud

Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novel-ty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility.

Materialising the Future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of advance materials for energy

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise on emerging technologies in advanced materials for energy. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics: 

• accelerated material design/synthesis
• biomaterials as part of the circular economy
• advanced materials allowing new applications
• closed loop battery recycling
• innovations in catalysis
• organic batteries for sustainable energy storage
• design to performance bat-teries
• design to cost batteries
• electrochemical water treatment

Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novelty and disruptive potential such as: circularity of materials (safe and sustainable by design); membranes / separators; process optimisation; 3D printing of electrode materials for energy and environmental engineering applications; and use of AI for the study of materials.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: governance and compliance frameworks; funding; collaboration and knowledge exchange; sustainable and efficient development; infrastructure and technological advancement and limita-tions; industry and market dynamics and constraints; innovation and risk management; supply chain and raw materials; and talent development.

Imagine the future - Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations
in the field of medical imaging and AI

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under
the FUTURINNOV project. The workshop, held on 17 September 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology
readiness levels (TRLs), within the EIC's Medical Imaging and AI portfolio.
Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of pa-
tents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance
to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of eight key
topics: 

• generative AI for healthcare
• digital twins
• multimodal data analysis
• explainable AI in medical imaging
• application of AI to specific diseases/conditions
• XR - augmented and virtual realities
• tensor-valued diffusion encoding
• AI-generated synthetic data for training AI

Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novelty and disruptive potential such as: blockchain, edge computing and differential privacy for secure, AI-driven medical imaging and collaborative healthcare
optimisation and quantum medical imaging.
Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and pro-
motion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: Tech-
nological advancements and cross-sector applications; data infrastructure, AI models, and regulatory
frameworks; workforce, education and societal factors; clinical efficiency and patient outcomes; trust,
ethics, and AI adoption; financial pressures and industry investment in AI healthcare.

Future Forward is a 20-lesson program to support (young) people in their exploration of the future. 

Futures Literacy

In our ever-changing world, parents, caregivers, teachers, and educators are faced with the challenge of preparing children for a future that is difficult to predict. How can we equip ourselves and younger generations with the necessary tools and skills to navigate the unknown? This is where futures literacy comes into play. While no-one can truly predict the future, by integrating future thinking into education, we acquire the tools to anticipate and navigate the complexities of an uncertain world, fostering innovation, adaptability, and resilience, in line with the goals of the European Year of Skills (May 2023 – May 2024). 

Future Forward, a 20-lesson program offers a unique opportunity for parents, teachers, and anyone curious about the exploration of the future. This crash course into foresight provides insights into future thinking, anticipation and foresight, opening doors to a better informed and imaginative future.

The Topics

The lessons resolve around 5 topics:  

• Perception of time; How we perceive time is connected to how we understand the future. Explore your perception of time and the future from multiple perspectives to help develop your futures literacy.  

• Futures mindset; Learn to see the world as a futurist! By challenging assumptions, developing a critical gaze, and understanding the interconnectedness of the world, you can imagine possible and preferable futures.  

• Multiple futures; There is no single future, but a landscape of constantly emerging and evolving possibilities. Contemplate a plurality of scenarios and visions for some of this century’s most pressing issues.  

• Investing in imaginations; How do we begin to imagine more than one viable future? When we open our imaginations, the possibilities become endless. We each have the capacity to explore, shape and imagine alternative futures.  

• Taking action; Imagine your ideal world 20 years in the future. What does it look like? How can you achieve it? Learn how you can take an active role in creating a better and more positive tomorrow.  

UNESCO champions a capability-based approach to using-the-future. Futures Literacy empowers the innate human capacity to imagine, it is a skill that everyone can develop. In becoming futures literate we enhance our agency, developing our abilities to identify novelty, prepare, adapt and invent as changes occur in the complex world we live in. More reading UNESCO 

Enjoy your classes at Future Forward! 

Co-Curation 

Future Forward is a co-development of the European Commission and TED-Ed and has been designed in co-creation with our co-curators from the foresight field. 

Theme 1: Perception of Time in co-curation with the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) by Jennifer Gidley

WFSF is a UNESCO and UN consultative partner and global NGO with members in over 60 countries, bringing together academics, researchers, practitioners, students and institutions. WFSF offers a global forum for stimulation, exploration and exchange of ideas, visions, and plans for alternative futures, through long-term, big-picture thinking and radical change. Jennifer Gidley is the Former President of WFSF (2009-2017). She is Adjunct Professor, UTS Sydney, a leading international scholar on human-centred futures, and author of The Future: VSI (Oxford).  

Theme 2: Futures Mindset in co-curation with Teach the Future (TTF) by Lourdes Rodríguez

The Teach the Future community is dedicated to bring futures thinking to schools, educators, and students around the world. By teaching the future you can equip young people to face uncertainty and help them envision and create their preferred future. Lourdes Rodríguez is global hubs director at Teach the Future. She is a senior foresight consultant, specialized in trends analysis. Recognized as one of the top futurists in Spain by Forbes.  

Theme 3: Multiple Futures in co-curation with Next Generation Foresight Practitioners (NGFP) by Ollie Bream McIntosh NGFP’s mission is to identify, accelerate, amplify, and connect a Global South-anchored network of emerging next-generation foresight practitioners to leverage power for transformation. Ollie Bream McIntosh is a researcher and designer specialized in sustainable futures. Formerly a director of several social enterprises, including design studio Social Systems Lab, and an Associate at the University of Nottingham, where he led the design and delivery of an award-winning course in Futures Studies. Ollie now leads the development of new transdisciplinary research ecosystems on the theme of social transformation at Erasmus University Rotterdam. 

Theme 4: Imagine Futures in co-curation with Association of Professional Futurists (APF) by Stuart Candy

APF’s mission is to advance the practice of professional foresight by fostering a dynamic, global, diverse, and collaborative community of professional futurists and those committed to futures thinking who expand the understanding, use, and impact of foresight in service to their stakeholders and the world. Stuart Candy, PhD is Director of Situation Lab and Associate Professor of Social Foresight at Parsons School of Design in New York, and Advisor to NASA JPL in Los Angeles. His publications include the edited collection Design and Futures, creativity game The Thing From The Future, and public imagination toolkit The Futures Bazaar, winner of the APF’s inaugural award for Inclusive Foresight.  

Theme 5: Taking Action in co-curation with UN Global Pulse Finland foresight specialists Tiina Neuvonen, Lucia Soriano Irigaray & Claudia Sáenz Zulueta UN Global Pulse is the Secretary-General’s Innovation Lab.

They work at the intersection of innovation and the human sciences to strengthen the ability of the United Nations and those it serves to respond and adapt to challenges, and anticipate them in future. Tiina Neuvonen is the Strategic Foresight Lead at UN Global Pulse Finland. She works at the intersection of social sciences, development and innovation. Formerly, she worked on UNESCO’s innovation portfolio, and has a background in strategy consulting and service design. Lucía Soriano Irigaray is a Strategic Foresight Analyst at UN Global Pulse Finland, and focuses on policy innovation. She has a background working on public affairs, international relations and climate change. Claudia Saénz Zulueta is a Strategic Foresight Senior Analyst at UN Global Pulse Finland, specializing in participatory futures and anticipatory strategy. She is driving social impact and innovation and her goal is to empower individuals to shape inclusive and transformative visions of their futures. 

Decision makers are faced with a world characterised by increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. These conditions make it more difficult to assess risks when making strategic decisions or planning for the long-term. This project from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) EU Policy Lab starting 2023 presents a foresight approach to increase preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create.

Foresight methods offer a way to consider and focus on risks that may be beyond the scope of traditional quantitative and qualitative risk assessment approaches. Several snapshots of the future depict different worlds that have undergone substantial changes as a consequence of emerging developments. An analysis of the risks inherent in the possible futures identified ten risk clusters that are relevant for decision makers, and mapped future developments that might lead to them.The same development pathways that could lead to risks can also create opportunities, and the study provides some examples. Decision makers face the challenge of mitigating the adverse effects of risks, while reaping the benefits of potential opportunities. This study also presents the results of a Delphi survey that evaluated the scope and severity of risks. Three of the 40 risks identified in this study were assessed to be potentially existential for humanity: 1) environmental degradation, 2) environmental disasters, and 3) loss of power by humans. The project started in 2023 and will run until 2024. Next in the development is an engagement tool for policymakers to push the boundaries of foresight on risks in their specific policy making domain. Stay tuned for its launch, later in autumn 2024! 

Download the Risks on the horizon report  

Read the blog post from the authors  

Successfully managing the green and digital transitions is a crucial factor that could increase the resilience and strategic autonomy of the EU and shape its future. Yet digitalisation of agriculture and rural areas raises vital questions about winners and losers, costs, benefits, and long term implications.


This foresight exercise explores the interplay between digital transition, policies and the resilience of the agricultural sector and rural areas, against the backdrop of potential disruptive and transformative changes. The report presents the outcomes of this exploration, proposing building blocks for an effective EU digital transition strategy for agriculture and rural areas supported by a hands-on policymaker’s toolkit

The blog post reveals the goals and steps of the foresight process and explains how visioning can support transitions. 

In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers.
Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used
as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape
technological change.

In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory
intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning.

Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.
The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches
to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European
Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this
way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop.

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction.

The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.
Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives.

The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC.

Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, present leading challenges in policy-making nowadays. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks, emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policy-making and preparedness.

This report is a part of the “Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation” (ANTICIPINNOV) project, a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre with the European Innovation Council (EIC).

The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation trends and signals produced by public and private entities outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support innovation funding prioritisation. Other insights were extracted, namely those related with the scope of the EIC Programme Manager portfolios.

What will Europe look like in 2040? How will we travel, how will our society be organised, how will our schools function and what kind of jobs will people have? These are just some of the questions we have been asking Europeans to reflect on as part of the #OurFutures project launched by the EU Policy Lab. Through it, we collect EU citizens' images through a narrative inquiry method.

We recently did this in Greece, in close collaboration with foresight experts in the Greek government by reaching out to Greek citizens to gain insights into how people in this part of Europe would like the future to look like.

We have spoken to Epaminondas Christophilopoulos (UNESCO chair on Futures research at the Foundation for Research and Technology) and Vivian Efthimiopoulou (communication expert), focusing on some of their findings which demonstrate the value of citizen-generated future images for developing people-centric policies at both national and EU level.

The ongoing inter-institutional European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) Horizon Scanning activity is led since 2022 by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission and the European Parliamentary Research Services. An iterative methodology is rolled out at three successive levels, involving experts in a variety of policy areas and across several EU institutions.

Firstly, at the outset, this exercise builds a wider EU community engaged in horizon scanning. Their task at a first level has involved looking for future developments that sit at the margins of current thinking and planning, the so-called ‘signs of new’.

Secondly, sense-making workshops are organised on a monthly basis to consider through new lenses the identified ‘signs of new’ collected over the month and find links and interconnections among them across policies and sectors. The aim of these second-level workshops is thus to imagine possible impactful future developments, ‘signals of change’, using the collected signs as prompts.

Thirdly, future impact workshops, conceived as exploratory and prioritisation workshops are organised after conducting a few sense-making workshops. These workshops also include the participation of officials across all ESPAS institutions and aim to prioritise the three potentially most impactful ‘signals of change’ from among those identified at an earlier stage.
This careful process results in Horizon Scanning newsletters providing a broader perspective on policy making.

Read the latest newsletters here: Horizon Scanning | ESPAS

See also blog post describing the project and its role in EU : Spotting the Future: How Horizon Scanning can help shape EU Policy - European Commission (europa.eu) 

ESPAS Horizon Scanning feeds to other ESPAS projects. Read the Global Trends Reports published every five years.

Partners:

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC)
European Parliamentary Research Services (EPRS)

Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. 

Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. 

The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. 

The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA).

Futures Garden: Pioneering Policy Innovation through Speculative Design

At Futures Garden, we embark on a visionary journey to redefine policy-making for Europe's future. Our unique platform collaborates with leading futurists, innovative designers, and engaged EU citizens to envision a Europe enriched by diverse potential futures, each with its own opportunities and challenges. Our mission? To revolutionize policy creation by intertwining speculative design with creativity, empathy, and analytical insight. Our four-step approach ensures a comprehensive and impactful exploration:

• Horizon Scanning: We dive into cutting-edge ideas and emerging trends, identifying opportunities that could shape Europe's future.
• Speculative Design: Our creative process transforms abstract concepts into tangible, thought-provoking scenarios, making future possibilities more accessible and engaging.
• Citizen Engagement: We delve into the societal implications of these speculative scenarios, gathering diverse perspectives and insights from EU citizens.
• Policy Reflection: The final step involves analyzing the potential impact of these innovative ideas on policy-making, ensuring that future EU policies are forward-thinking, inclusive, and impactful.
  

Creating fictional artifacts through speculative design
Futures Garden aims at creating inspiring alternative future scenarios through the use of fictional future artifacts that invite to reflection and debate. The pilot project took place in 2023 and addressed two themes:

• “Dealing with future selves” explores new ways of being, individually and collectively, examines new practices and technologies that enhance self-reflection and sharing of emotions, which help shape our choices in life and nurture a renewed sense of togetherness.
• “Extending human perception to new scales” explores the richness of non-human intelligences, expanding our attention and appreciation for their unique sensory worlds, their “umwelt” – what they “feel” and how they “think”. In doing so it departs from the human-centric worldview towards a deeper understanding and celebration of life on Earth.
  
  The resulting fictional artifacts took the form of short, thought-provoking movies – Inwards and Symbiotic – which render the imagined future scenarios more tangible, immersive and engaging.
  
  Watch "Inwards" - The 2050s a re a time of deep social reconfiguration. No longer believing in the myth of perpetual economic growth, recipes for self-empowerment, and technological fixes, citizens of Europe seek to regain agency by turning inwards.
  New cultures of emotional excellence and material minimalism emerge, supported by tools for assisted introspection and emotion sharing. In the wake of this quiet revolution, the social contract progressively integrates a renewed sense of togetherness.
  
  Watch "Symbiotic" - Set in the Symbiocene era of the 2050s, a time marked by an expanded understanding of intelligence beyond human confines, Symbiotic explores a revolutionary breakthrough. Scientists have created a device that allows humans to experience the perceptions and sensory worlds of other intelligent beings, immersing them in the 'umwelt' of these creatures. This film documents the first groundbreaking experiences through the device, capturing the profound experiences of those who ventured into these new realms of intelligence.

We invited people across the EU to share their imagined futures. For this collection we, the European Commission’s Competence Centre on Foresight, used a narrative inquiry method. Instead of asking opinions about the future, we asked participants to share a story about their desirable future, followed by a few questions about that story, in order to more fully comprehend their thinking. In this process we were guided by Voices That Count.

In this article, we’ll take a look at the first 591 stories of people that participated so far, mostly from Greece and Slovenia, followed by Germany, Spain and Italy. Approximately half of them are students, and the other half mainly consists of employed people. 

  

#OurFutures invites people across the EU to share their imagined futures.

The project supports and inspires a collective dialogue about the future of Europe and its visions for the future. 

We welcome your short story expressing what you would like to see in the Europe of the future, making explicit your hopes, aspirations, but also uncertainties.

The visions you and other citizens submit will be analysed and shared with EU policy makers. We will look for early signs of potentially important developments, persistent problems, novel and unexpected issues. These outcomes will serve to generate actual, future-oriented recommendations for EU action to build together the Europe that we want.

The future is a co-creation. Share your visions of tomorrow and join us in creating a narrative that inspires citizens, policymakers, and foresight experts:

• Write your future story and answer a few questions - share your preferred future with the rest of the world. Allow your vision to inspire others and fuel a meaningful conversation across Europe.
    
• Take a look at the #ourfutures dashboard - explore future visions shared by hundreds of contributors and check out stats and graphs that synthetise this rich content.